As your self-appointed philosopher-in-residence (this week, anyway), Michael’s thread about the respective psychological motivations of CTers and LNers prompted this thought exercise. We philosophers are prone to thought exercises when inclement weather prevents us from hitting 5-irons into our backyard nets. But, hey, thought exercises are how Einstein hit upon his theory of relativity – so show a little respect for this effort, willya?
If there were an actual conspiracy, the most likely and plausible scenario by far – by far, I repeat – is a tight Mafia hit organized by Marcello. In terms of motive and means, the Mafia in general and Marcello in particular are way at the top of the list. A hit on JFK would have been little more than business as usual. It would have required minimal planning and no more than a bare handful of highly trusted associates.
Oswald? My guess would be that his high-profile activities in New Orleans started wheels turning that otherwise might not have turned. “Good Lord, if we can pin the assassination on this preening pro-Castro punk, it just might have the added bonus of bringing down Castro and restoring our lucrative Cuban empire. This is too good to pass up.”
Hence, even though the original plan was just to have a pro whack JFK to avenge RFK’s humiliation of Marcello and get the damn DOJ to back off on organized crime, now we’re going to include this Oswald dope. He’ll think he’s part of a pro-Castro hit with our pro in the Dal Tex building being just a fellow Castro fanatic with dreams of escaping to Cuba. If he’s caught or captured, it makes no difference because all he could ever say is “Viva Fidel!” – exactly what we want him to say. It’s perfect, I tell ya.
(Ruby, of course, is not part of this scenario. Let’s have a little respect for Marcello’s professionalism, OK? Ruby just did what he did for his own purposes and we here in the Marcello camp don’t really care one way or the other.)
I’m not saying this is what occurred, mind you, but it’s certainly the most plausible conspiracy scenario by far. There is no need for oodles and gobs of participants or any evidence-tampering or cover-up. It’s just a standard, easy-shot hit of the sort our pro pulls off eight times a year. There are virtually no risks. Our pro is going to be in and out of the Dal Tex building in four minutes, tops. Bada boom, bada bing.
For our thought exercise, let’s assume this conspiracy is established beyond any reasonable doubt, to the extent that the verdict of history is actually changed. The history books now say that Marcello had JFK whacked, the hitman escaped and Oswald was a dupe.
Do you think Newman, Morley, Simpich, DiEugenio, Stone, the Harvey & Lee crowd and all the other LBJ/CIA/Etc. ideologues are now happy? Do you think they’re going to crawl back into their holes and say “I’ll be damned, it’s been solved.” Do you think they are even going to miss a beat? Hell, no. They will shift their fury toward the “crazy Marcello narrative” and go right on peddling their conspiratorial wares. Books, blogs, websites, podcasts, conferences!
How about the LN ideologues? Well, they’re probably happier than the Big Conspiracy folks because a Mafia hit doesn’t really challenge their worldview. I’m not sure how they would react, after spending decades vehemently defending every last nut-and-bolt of the LN narrative and dismissing CTers as crackpots. My guess is, there would still be some LN resistance, although it's hard to see what form it might take.
How about those of us for whom the JFKA is mostly just an interesting whodunnit, more like a big jigsaw puzzle? Our hobby is now gone, and the puzzle turned out to be not nearly as interesting as most of us had hoped. Are we happy? Will the entire cottage industry called “JFKA research” now disappear – no more books, no more conferences, no more podcasts, no more forums? I kind of doubt it.
My guess is that the cottage industry called “JFKA research” is now so entrenched, so much a part of the fabric of the participants’ lives, that little would change. People would not simply shrug and move on to UFOs, Bigfoot and 9/11 to see what they’re all about.
There’s a famous social psychology book from 1956 called When Prophecy Fails. It concerns an apocalyptic UFO cult, “The Seekers.” They were firmly committed to a massively destructive worldwide flood on December 21, 1954. When that didn’t happen, did the cult go poof? Absolutely not. They chugged right along, making excuses, altering their beliefs as necessary and winning new converts. This scenario has repeated itself umpteen times, right up to the level of more than one Christian denomination with millions of followers.
There is no reason to think anything would cause the “JFKA research” industry (or hobby, or cult, or whatever) to collapse. To a very large extent – almost entirely, I would say – the whole thing at this point is really not about the JFKA at all. It has a momentum of its own.
Anyone seriously think ironclad proof of a Mafia conspiracy would put an end to all this?
