Why the first shot missed

[Charles Collins]

Yes. But on this thread, we had twenty pages on 'Why the first shot missed' without the high angular velocity of the first shot even being mentioned. While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason. That factor, by itself, means that we should expect for Oswald to miss the first shot. But have a much better chance with his second and third shots, where the angular velocity was much lower.

While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason.

The angular velocity is certainly a reason that the target could be missed. However, I find it impossible to believe that angular velocity could alone cause someone with LHO’s rifle training and abilities to miss the limo entirely. I believe that interference of some sort had to be involved.



Here is your description of the running deer competition with a sentence highlighted by me:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.

In years past, they used to have a ‘Running Deer Shooting’ competition at the Olympics. The best thing about this competition was that they did not actually shot at real live deer.

The Wikipedia article on this gives the most complete information on the 1908 Olympics.
The range was 330 feet. The target would appear for only 4 seconds at a distance of 75 feet.

The target had an outline of a life size deer, with three concentric circles. The inner circle would could for 4 points. The next circle for 3. And the outermost circle for 2. A shot outside the largest circle, but on the outline of the deer (but not the rear part of the deer) would count as 1 point.

My father once told me, that in deer hunting, you don’t want to hit the rear of the deer. This would allow the deer to still get away but would wound it seriously enough that it would likely die in the coming days. Better to miss the deer altogether than to do that. Hence, I would guess, the somewhat strange scoring system.

Everyone would get a single shot (in the Single Shot competition) during a 4 second pass and would get 10 shots altogether.

The speed of the target was 18.75 feet per second or 12.8 mph. This is pretty slow. At 67 years old, I could run faster than that. I’m certain a real deer would run well over 30 mph. I suspect that they did not use real running deer solely for humane reasons.

Still, these were shots designed to test the best rifle shooters, at moving targets, in the world. So, I imagine they were pretty challenging.

In the real competition, the winner got 25 points, with several others just behind. So, an average shot would end up either in the “2” circle or the “3” circle. This competition appears to have been challenging because the three lowest scores were 11, 6 and 3 points.

The Angular velocity of the 1908 target varied from 3.21 to 3.26 degrees per second. Let’s compare this to the angular velocity of possible shots at Dealey Plaza. All the shots are listed from the highest to the lowest angular velocities:

The following chart lists:
     Angular Velocity of the Target, in degrees per second (dps),
     Tangential Velocity of the Target, in feet per second (fps),
     Distance to the Target, in feet (ft)


                                       Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man   at z-312:    6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke         at z-312:    5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft
TSBD position                   at z-153:    4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft

TSBD position                   at z-222:    1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                   at z-312:    0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Obviously, Oswald was attempting a shot at z-153, with a higher angular velocity, than the best shooters in the world in 1908 had to attempt. No wonder he missed the limousine. A shot from the Grassy Knoll would have even been tougher, at least the target would have had an even higher angular velocity.

Admittedly, the Angular Velocity does not take into account distances. Perhaps a superior comparison is from the Tangential Velocity of the Target. So the following chart as the previous, except it is ordered by the Tangential Velocity:


                                                        Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft
TSBD position                  at z-153:     4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man  at z-312:     6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke        at z-312:     5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft

TSBD position                  at z-222:     1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                  at z-312:     0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Either by using Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity, the two shots that hit from Oswald’s position are clearly the easiest of shots.

The 1908 data is not totally satisfactory. It does not give the size of the scoring circles. Nor the size of the outline of the deer and exactly which part of this outline was out of bounds. Still, it’s the best I have found. And the rifles available in 1908 would be roughly equivalent of Oswald’s Carcano rifle. If anyone has any data that is as good or better I would be interested in seeing a post to it. Particularly one that would show if Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity is a better measure of difficulty for shots under 200 yards.

I question your calculations simply because it appears to me that you incorrectly have the distance of the running deer competition shots at 330-feet instead of 75-feet.

The competitors were shooting at a target much smaller than the JFK limo. How many of the 1908 olympics shots do you suppose would have missed something the size of the limo?

[Zeon Mason]

If the deflection off a tree or the traffic light pole is not the reason for a missed shot, and it’s an early 1st shot somewhere between Z133- Z170, then why no significant  reactions of SS agents looking back to the TEBD in the Z film in that sequence of frames to indicate they heard anything?

The SS agents Seem to be fixated watching Umbrella man and  DC man up till Z207 before the sign blocks the view to them until they are seen again post Z 313.

Only a sight movement by SS agent Hickey at about Z143-45 and it is uncertain if it may just be readjustment due to limo movement causing inertia effect on Hickey which he had to counter balance.

Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?

[Charles Collins]

If the deflection off a tree or the traffic light pole is not the reason for a missed shot, and it’s an early 1st shot somewhere between Z133- Z170, then why no significant  reactions of SS agents looking back to the TEBD in the Z film in that sequence of frames to indicate they heard anything?

The SS agents Seem to be fixated watching Umbrella man and  DC man up till Z207 before the sign blocks the view to them until they are seen again post Z 313.

Only a sight movement by SS agent Hickey at about Z143-45 and it is uncertain if it may just be readjustment due to limo movement causing inertia effect on Hickey which he had to counter balance.

Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?

Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

If he was sitting on the box, and sitting up straight, he would be hidden from view by the Hughes camera, Brennan, Edwards, and Fischer. Brennan testified that he appeared to leave the window for a short time (several times). I suggest that he was simply sitting up straight.



He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

Simply leaning forward, while still seated, and lifting the rifle from his lap area (which would be out of sight to people in the plaza) to his shoulder and begin to track and aim. Either Edward or Fischer (or both) testified they saw him leaning forward. So, it appears to me that he was still seated on the box (and leaning forward) as the motorcade was entering Dealey Plaza.



In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?

Yes, it absolutely could have happened that way. An accidental discharge can happen to anybody. We have a bullet hole in our dining room table, chair, and floor (patched) to prove it. It was an accidental discharge that happened to a gunsmith (also a gun safety instructor and professional outdoorsman) who we have known since school days. He was helping us sell some guns that my wife inherited. And he was told that the gun was loaded. So, I have no doubt that it could have happened to the assassin.