Is the Domino Theory Valid?


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Online Joe Elliott

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Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« on: October 21, 2022, 10:11:22 PM »

Is the Domino Theory Valid?

I come from a generation that has largely been taught that, no, it is a false theory. But the real truth is that it is sometimes true, sometimes false.

With Hitler, the theory was valid. Hitler was committed to divide and conquer. Giving him success in Austria set him up for success in Czechoslovakia. Giving him success in Czechoslovakia set up his attack on Poland. Standing up to Hitler in August of 1938 would have stopped him. The German army was on the verge of turning against him. Giving in made Germany much more dangerous. The cost of starting to stop Germany in 1939 was vastly greater than the cost would have been in 1938.

Against the Soviets during the 1920ís through the 1980ís, the theory was false. Even though they were expecting and working toward World Wide Communism. Then why was the Domino Theory false in this case?

Because a quirk with the Soviets. Karl Marx and claimed that Capitalism will inevitably collapse on its own. That the working people will see the advantages of Socialism eventually and when they do so, bring down the Capitalistic States. And the Soviets believed this fairy tale. So, they were content to let this happen. Why risk a big war. Even if the war is successful, they would rob Marx of the glory that he deserves, to show that his prophecy was true.

I was taught that the Soviet Union was a very dangerous enemy. In truth, having an enemy who is largely content to wait for you to fall apart is not the worst enemy one can have, however powerful they may be. With enemies like that, who needs friends? But Russia has learned that Marx was a false prophet. If Russia is going to take over central Europe, they are going to have to make it happen. So, in that sense, Russia is a much more dangerous opponent than the Soviet Union ever was, however much weaker their conventional military may be.

But, in general, with a powerful state that wishes to expand, this theory is true. Unless they believe in fairy tales.

The Domino Theory is not true with China, I do not believe. Unless I am mistaken, China just wants all the lands it historically controlled. Hence, because the Mongols controlled China, and Tibet, China, in a sense, controlled Tibet in the past and so they must control it now. If they take over Taiwan, I think that would be it. Still, this should be resisted.

The Domino Theory is not true with North Korea. I think that if the threat of nuclear weapons allowed them to overrun South Korea, they would stop with that.

But Russia is a different matter. It is like China. It wasnít to control what it used to control. So, Ukraine would not be the end of the story. They want Ukraine, the Baltic States, Finland, Poland and Germany. And possibly a bit more. So, it wonít stop with Ukraine. Success in Ukraine will only encourage them to go further.

So, no, the Domino Theory is not always false. Or true. But in the case of Russia, it is true.

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Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« on: October 21, 2022, 10:11:22 PM »


Online Michael T. Griffith

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Re: Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2022, 10:50:14 PM »
Is the Domino Theory Valid?

I come from a generation that has largely been taught that, no, it is a false theory. But the real truth is that it is sometimes true, sometimes false.

With Hitler, the theory was valid. Hitler was committed to divide and conquer. Giving him success in Austria set him up for success in Czechoslovakia. Giving him success in Czechoslovakia set up his attack on Poland. Standing up to Hitler in August of 1938 would have stopped him. The German army was on the verge of turning against him. Giving in made Germany much more dangerous. The cost of starting to stop Germany in 1939 was vastly greater than the cost would have been in 1938.

Against the Soviets during the 1920ís through the 1980ís, the theory was false. Even though they were expecting and working toward World Wide Communism. Then why was the Domino Theory false in this case?

Because a quirk with the Soviets. Karl Marx and claimed that Capitalism will inevitably collapse on its own. That the working people will see the advantages of Socialism eventually and when they do so, bring down the Capitalistic States. And the Soviets believed this fairy tale. So, they were content to let this happen. Why risk a big war. Even if the war is successful, they would rob Marx of the glory that he deserves, to show that his prophecy was true.

I was taught that the Soviet Union was a very dangerous enemy. In truth, having an enemy who is largely content to wait for you to fall apart is not the worst enemy one can have, however powerful they may be. With enemies like that, who needs friends? But Russia has learned that Marx was a false prophet. If Russia is going to take over central Europe, they are going to have to make it happen. So, in that sense, Russia is a much more dangerous opponent than the Soviet Union ever was, however much weaker their conventional military may be.

But, in general, with a powerful state that wishes to expand, this theory is true. Unless they believe in fairy tales.

The Domino Theory is not true with China, I do not believe. Unless I am mistaken, China just wants all the lands it historically controlled. Hence, because the Mongols controlled China, and Tibet, China, in a sense, controlled Tibet in the past and so they must control it now. If they take over Taiwan, I think that would be it. Still, this should be resisted.

The Domino Theory is not true with North Korea. I think that if the threat of nuclear weapons allowed them to overrun South Korea, they would stop with that.

But Russia is a different matter. It is like China. It wasnít to control what it used to control. So, Ukraine would not be the end of the story. They want Ukraine, the Baltic States, Finland, Poland and Germany. And possibly a bit more. So, it wonít stop with Ukraine. Success in Ukraine will only encourage them to go further.

So, no, the Domino Theory is not always false. Or true. But in the case of Russia, it is true.

You are somewhat misrepresenting the Domino Theory as it was understood when it was formulated in the 1950s. The Domino Theory enunciated by Eisenhower and JFK, among many others at the time, was proved correct.

After China fell to the Communists in 1949, Red China immediately began an extensive effort to export communism to other Asian nations. Red China intervened in the Korean War, sending over 100,000 troops across the Yalu River to attack our forces. If China had not fallen to communism, North Korea would be a much better place today.

At the same time (early 1950s), China sent tens of thousands of troops to northern Vietnam to help the Viet Minh in their war against the French. China also began to support Communist movements in Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand.

After the Vietnam War began for the U.S. in 1961, China began to send combat support troops and thousands of tons of weapons and supplies to North Vietnam. China eventually had well over 100,000 combat support troops stationed in North Vietnam.

After the U.S. pulled out of South Vietnam in early 1973, Cambodia and Laos fell to Communist rule barely two years later (Laos fell in March '75 and Cambodia fell in April '75).

Here's my website on the Vietnam War:

The Truth About the Vietnam War
https://sites.google.com/view/vietnamwartruth/home



« Last Edit: October 30, 2022, 10:53:31 PM by Michael T. Griffith »

Online Richard Smith

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Re: Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2022, 01:02:29 PM »


But Russia is a different matter. It is like China. It wasnít to control what it used to control. So, Ukraine would not be the end of the story. They want Ukraine, the Baltic States, Finland, Poland and Germany. And possibly a bit more. So, it wonít stop with Ukraine. Success in Ukraine will only encourage them to go further.

So, no, the Domino Theory is not always false. Or true. But in the case of Russia, it is true.

That's an oversimplification promoted by the corrupt establishment politicians to support another endless war.  Ukraine has a long association with Russia.  There are many citizens of the disputed regions who prefer Russian control.  In fact, they have been fighting there for years.  It is a regional conflict dating back hundreds of years.  The better analogy here is WWI in which major players were drawn into a world war by a regional conflict for which most of them had no interest whatsoever by a series of alliances.  Someone has been targeting Russian oil pipelines.  Whether the US or other allies.  Those are potential acts of war.  That would be so viewed if Russia or China had done the same to us.  The incompetents who surround Joe Biden in the White House may bungle this situation into WWIII.   At the very least, many Repubs and Dems want this war to continue for years or decades as it did in Afghanistan for no purpose.  It gives them access to spend billions of dollars as they see fit.  Most of which goes to entities that then support their future political campaigns. 

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Re: Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2022, 01:02:29 PM »


Online Michael T. Griffith

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Re: Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2022, 09:04:18 PM »
The Domino Theory was essentially this: that if South Vietnam fell, much or all of the rest of Southeast Asia would fall. This was partly based on what happened after China fell to the Communists, namely, that Red China then launched a massive incursion into North Korea to push American troops away from the Yalu River and farther down the peninsula, and at the same time sent tens of thousands of troops into northern Vietnam to help the Vietminh defeat the French. Red China also began aiding Communist movements in Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia.

When the Vietnam War came along, China stationed over 100,000 support troops in North Vietnam and provided Hanoi with massive amounts of weapons and supplies and large infusions of financial aid.

After U.S. forces left South Vietnam in early 1973, South Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia fell to the Communists within two years after our withdrawal.


Online Richard Smith

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Re: Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2022, 12:59:23 PM »
The Domino Theory was essentially this: that if South Vietnam fell, much or all of the rest of Southeast Asia would fall. This was partly based on what happened after China fell to the Communists, namely, that Red China then launched a massive incursion into North Korea to push American troops away from the Yalu River and farther down the peninsula, and at the same time sent tens of thousands of troops into northern Vietnam to help the Vietminh defeat the French. Red China also began aiding Communist movements in Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia.

When the Vietnam War came along, China stationed over 100,000 support troops in North Vietnam and provided Hanoi with massive amounts of weapons and supplies and large infusions of financial aid.

After U.S. forces left South Vietnam in early 1973, South Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia fell to the Communists within two years after our withdrawal.

The United States made a miscalculation of the situation in Vietnam mistaking it for a war of Communist expansion rather than independence.  China and Vietnam were historical adversaries in many respects.  In fact, Vietnam and China engaged in a war in the late 1970s.  Like the current situation in Ukraine, however, there are elements in US politics that benefit from a long and costly war. 

Offline Steve M. Galbraith

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Re: Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2022, 04:02:53 PM »
The United States made a miscalculation of the situation in Vietnam mistaking it for a war of Communist expansion rather than independence.  China and Vietnam were historical adversaries in many respects.  In fact, Vietnam and China engaged in a war in the late 1970s.  Like the current situation in Ukraine, however, there are elements in US politics that benefit from a long and costly war.
Independence? Independence from whom? Hanoi didn't invade South Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia and support Marxist groups in those countries (the Pathet Laoi was created by Hanoi, the Khmer Rouse for a lesser extent) for independence reasons. Laos and Cambodia were independent countries. They wanted Marxist governments throughout the region which is what happened after the South fell.

It was a war of communist expansion but it wasn't China or the USSR, for the most part, behind it. It was Hanoi.

Hanoi had an independent government in the North. They wouldn't let the South have one on its own. Or Laos or Cambodia for that matter.

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Re: Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2022, 04:02:53 PM »


Online Joe Elliott

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Re: Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2022, 08:48:04 PM »

Was the Domino Theory valid for South East Asian?

No.

Yes, South Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia were taken over by the Communists. But Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysian, India? Where was the big Communist drive to take over those countries? It never materialized.

I think North Vietnam, at least for the people themselves, the big motive was stopping Colonialism. Not spreading Communism everywhere. Whether the United States was trying to establish South Vietnam as some sort of a Colony is debatable. I don't think so. But the people of North Vietnam saw it differently. They saw it as a war against Colonialism. We saw it as a war against the inevitable march of Communism, inevitable, if we don't put up a fight.

I think both sides were wrong. We didn't have to fight because the Communists, in hindsight, were not committed to taking out one country after another without ever stopping. As evidence by the small expansion of Communism since the 1970's. Not only have the Communist failed to expand greatly, I don't see much effort from them to even attempt this. They could clearly do so if they really tried but they are just not interested.

If anything, Communism has collapsed. Vietnam and China are Communist states in name only. They actually allow Capitalism to a very large extent. Much to the benefit of their people. Although they still have Authoritarianism, which in the long run, will inevitable go south.

But Russia is different. Like Nazi Germany, I think they have great visions of expansion. They don't even make it a secret with their talk of some day taking over the Baltic States and Poland. Clearly, for Russia, the 'Domino Theory' is a valid theory. So, it's not just part of Ukraine that is at stake. Nor just all of Ukraine. It's undoing the main accomplishment of the Greatest Generation, making the bulk of Europe free. I don't think we should casually undo their sacrifice, of thousands of American lives, just because inflation is a little high, and gas prices are a little high, and some people think dropping support for Ukraine would totally make these problems go away.

Online Richard Smith

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Re: Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2022, 07:15:54 PM »


But Russia is different. Like Nazi Germany, I think they have great visions of expansion. They don't even make it a secret with their talk of some day taking over the Baltic States and Poland. Clearly, for Russia, the 'Domino Theory' is a valid theory. So, it's not just part of Ukraine that is at stake. Nor just all of Ukraine. It's undoing the main accomplishment of the Greatest Generation, making the bulk of Europe free. I don't think we should casually undo their sacrifice, of thousands of American lives, just because inflation is a little high, and gas prices are a little high, and some people think dropping support for Ukraine would totally make these problems go away.

We were told Afghanistan was different.  Iraq was different.  Now Ukraine is different?  Some good cause is manufactured as justification for endless war.  It NEVER works out.  There is zero evidence that Russia is anything like Nazi Germany or would overrun Europe.  Ukraine has a long historical association with Russia.  It was part of the USSR.  Many of the citizens in the disputed regions of Ukraine are pro-Russian.  The silly narrative that this conflict has something to do with "democracy" as some extension of the anti-Trump hysteria is laughable.  This situation is more akin to WWI where the major players were drawn into a regional conflict through a series of alliances.  Billions have been spent.  Billons more will be spent.  No end in sight.  The country is in ruin.  The US will have to rebuild all the destruction caused by the endless war once it ends.  More billions.  The incompetents in the Biden administration might bungle this situation into WWIII.

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Re: Is the Domino Theory Valid?
« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2022, 07:15:54 PM »


 

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