Ballistic Calculator


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Offline Joe Elliott

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Ballistic Calculator
« on: June 29, 2022, 05:05:48 AM »



Ballistic Calculator

The following is a website that has a Ballistic Calculator, that can calculate where a well-aimed bullet should end up (Impact) and the time it takes for the bullet to reach the target at various ranges.

The following numbers are for Oswald's Carcano rifle.

Ballistic Calculator:
http://www.handloads.com/calc/

I find this website works best with Internet Explorer.

Using the elevation of Dealey Plaza and a headwind of 15 mph. The wind was blowing from the Limousine toward the sniper’s nest at 10 to 15 mph. While a crosswind can make a difference, particularly at longer ranges, a headwind has little effect on the shot.

Diameter                 0.26
Grains                 162
RoundNose
Ballistic Coefficient:   0.275

Main chart
Velocity:        2160
Bullet Wt.        162
Sight in at:      219
Ball Coefficient:   0.275
Sight Ht.           0.5
Intervals:          5
Mx Range:         250
Muz Elv.:           0
Temp:              65
Altitude:         424
Wind mph:          15
Wind dir:         180





                                    Time of
Range   Velocity   Impact   Drop     Flight    Energy   Drift
yards   feet/sec   inches   inches   seconds

  0     2160       -0.50     0.00    0.00      1678     0
  5     2141        0.00     0.03    0.01      1649     0
 10     2126        0.50     0.07    0.02      1626     0
 15     2112        0.97     0.13    0.02      1605     0
 20     2098        1.42     0.21    0.03      1583     0
 25     2084        1.85     0.31    0.04      1562     0
 30     2070        2.27     0.43    0.05      1541     0
 35     2056        2.66     0.57    0.05      1521     0
 40     2042        3.02     0.74    0.06      1500     0
 45     2028        3.37     0.92    0.07      1479     0
 50     2014        3.71     1.12    0.07      1459     0
 55     2000        4.01     1.35    0.08      1439     0
 60     1987        4.30     1.59    0.09      1420     0
 65     1973        4.57     1.86    0.10      1400     0
 70     1960        4.80     2.16    0.10      1382     0
 75     1946        5.02     2.47    0.11      1362     0
 80     1933        5.21     2.81    0.12      1344     0
 85     1919        5.39     3.17    0.13      1325     0
 90     1906        5.54     3.55    0.14      1307     0
 95     1893        5.66     3.96    0.14      1289     0
100     1879        5.76     4.39    0.15      1270     0
105     1866        5.84     4.85    0.16      1253     0
110     1853        5.89     5.33    0.17      1235     0
115     1840        5.91     5.84    0.18      1218     0
120     1827        5.90     6.38    0.18      1201     0
125     1814        5.88     6.94    0.19      1184     0
130     1802        5.83     7.52    0.20      1168     0
135     1789        5.75     8.13    0.21      1151     0
140     1776        5.64     8.78    0.22      1135     0
145     1764        5.51     9.44    0.23      1119     0
150     1751        5.34    10.14    0.23      1103     0
155     1739        5.15    10.86    0.24      1088     0
160     1726        4.93    11.62    0.25      1072     0
165     1714        4.68    12.40    0.26      1057     0
170     1702        4.40    13.21    0.27      1042     0
175     1689        4.09    14.05    0.28      1026     0
180     1677        3.75    14.93    0.29      1012     0
185     1665        3.38    15.83    0.30       997     0
190     1653        2.98    16.76    0.30       983     0
195     1641        2.55    17.73    0.31       969     0
200     1629        2.08    18.73    0.32       955     0
205     1618        1.58    19.76    0.33       942     0
210     1606        1.04    20.83    0.34       928     0
215     1594        0.48    21.93    0.35       914     0
220     1583       -0.12    23.06    0.36       901     0
225     1571       -0.76    24.23    0.37       888     0
230     1560       -1.43    25.43    0.38       875     0
235     1549       -2.13    26.67    0.39       863     0
240     1538       -2.88    27.95    0.40       851     0
245     1526       -3.66    29.26    0.41       838     0
250     1515       -4.47    30.61    0.42       826     0
                                     Time of
Range   Velocity   Impact   Drop     Flight    Energy   Drift
yards   feet/sec   inches   inches   seconds
  0     2160       -0.50     0.00    0.00      1678     0   
  5     2140        0.00     0.03    0.01      1647     0   
 10     2126        0.50     0.07    0.02      1626     0
 15     2111        0.97     0.13    0.02      1603     0
 30     2068        2.28     0.43    0.05      1538     0
 35     2054        2.67     0.57    0.05      1518     0
 40     2040        3.04     0.74    0.06      1497     0
 45     2026        3.39     0.92    0.07      1477     0
 50     2012        3.73     1.12    0.07      1456     0
 55     1998        4.03     1.35    0.08      1436     0
 60     1984        4.32     1.60    0.09      1416     0
 65     1970        4.58    1.87    0.10      1396     0
 70     1956        4.82     2.16    0.10      1376     0
 75     1943        5.05     2.47    0.11      1358     0
 80     1929        5.24     2.81    0.12      1339     0
 85     1915        5.42     3.17    0.13      1319     0
 90     1902        5.56    3.56    0.14      1301     0
 95     1889        5.69     3.97    0.14      1284     0
100     1875        5.79     4.40    0.15      1265     0
245     1518       -3.69     29.38   0.41       829     0
250     1506       -4.51     30.74   0.42       816     0

"Impact" is the critical number in the chart above. How many inches, high or low, the Carcano will miss when aimed at a stationary target at a certain range. Positive numbers mean miss high, negative, miss low.

**********

Information on the Carcano rifle:
http://personal.stevens.edu/~gliberat/carcano/emary.html

"For those wishing to do their own trajectory calculations the ballistic coefficient for the Italian 162 grain FMJ RN bullet is approximately .275."

**************************************************

On another note, for the limousine at z222, it was moving about 12 MPH or 17.6 feet per second or 210 inches per second. In the time the bullet reaches the limousine in 0.10 seconds, the limousine will have traveled 21 inches. From Oswald's angle, 18 degrees above the line of travel of the limousine, the limousine would move up 21 * sin (18) or 6.5 inches.

At z222, the rifle zeroed to the "correct" distance will miss 6.5 inches low. In contrast, Oswald's rifle would miss 6.5 - 4.5 or 2 inches low.

For the limousine at z312, it was moving about 9 MPH or 13.2 feet per second or 160 inches per second. In the time the bullet reaches the limousine in 0.13 seconds, the limousine will have traveled 20 inches. From Oswald's angle, 13 degrees above the line of travel of the limousine, the limousine would move up 20 * sin (13) or 4.5 inches.

At z312, the rifle zeroed to the "correct" distance will miss 4.5 inches low. In contrast, Oswald's rifle would miss 5.5 - 4.5 or 1 inch high.

**************************************************

In conclusion:

For the seconds shot, at z222, with a rifle properly adjusted for 65 yards, the shot should miss 6.5 inches low, due to the motion of the limousine.
But with Oswald’s rifle, zero sighted for 200 meters, the shot should miss 2.0 inches low.

For the third shot, at z312, with a rifle proper adjusted for 90 yards, the shot should miss 4.5 inches low, due to the motion of the limousine.
But with Oswald’s rifle, zero sighted for 200 meters, the shot should miss 1.0 inches high.

So, the Carcano rifle provides Oswald with a very good lead, for the moving target, for the second and third shot, both of which struck JFK. I do not know if any other rifle would provide as good a lead. All this was due to luck, nothing more. Not due to the Carcano being designed to high moving targets. It was just luck.

JFK Assassination Forum

Ballistic Calculator
« on: June 29, 2022, 05:05:48 AM »


Online Gerry Down

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Re: Ballistic Calculator
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2022, 06:26:15 PM »
Very interesting. I presume when you are talking about the sighting of the rifle you are referring to the iron sights? The iron sights were sighted to 200 meters (which I presume you mean yards)?

Online Charles Collins

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Re: Ballistic Calculator
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2022, 07:39:53 PM »
Thanks for the nice work and information Joe! Just out of curiosity, does anyone know the approximate distance of the shot that missed at the house of General Walker? I think that I have read that it is a relatively close-range shot also. But just wondering how it compares distance-wise to the shots in Dealey Plaza.

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Re: Ballistic Calculator
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2022, 07:39:53 PM »


Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: Ballistic Calculator
« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2022, 04:59:23 AM »

Very interesting.

The CTers don’t think so.


I presume when you are talking about the sighting of the rifle you are referring to the iron sights? The iron sights were sighted to 200 meters (which I presume you mean yards)?

Yes, I am referring to the iron sights. They were zero sighted to 200 meters.

Since the scope was almost certainly not zero sights, and I believe could not have been easily zero sighted because the scope was mounted to the side and not right on top, talking about what distance the scope was zero sighted to would be meaningless. Even at a distance it would hit vertically, the shot should miss to the left, because the scope was mounted at the ’10:00 position’, not the ’12:00 position’ that would be needed for accurate shooting.


The iron sights were sighted to 200 meters (which I presume you mean yards)?

No, it is 200 meters, or about 218 yards. This was an Italian rifle.

Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: Ballistic Calculator
« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2022, 05:25:48 AM »

Thanks for the nice work and information Joe! Just out of curiosity, does anyone know the approximate distance of the shot that missed at the house of General Walker? I think that I have read that it is a relatively close-range shot also. But just wondering how it compares distance-wise to the shots in Dealey Plaza.

Excellent question.

I understand the distance for the shot at General Walker was 105 feet, or 35 yards. And it was a stationary target. So, one would think if Oswald was going to make any shot, it would be that one.

However, there are two complications.

1.   At 105 feet, the 200 meter zero sighted Carcano would miss high by 2.6 inches, as you can see from the chart I have in the original post.
This is more than Oswald should miss for the second and third shot at Dealey Plaza, 1.5 inches low and 1.7 inches high.

It is possible that Oswald had not practiced firing his rifle when he shot at General Walker and did not know his rifle would miss 2.6 inches high. This would increase the chances of a missed shot, if aiming at the head.

2.   A much more significant factor, is the bullet either struck the glass, or the frame, or both, of a window. Even if General Walker was just a few feet beyond the window, a slight deflection could cause an accurately aimed shot to miss completely.

In 1991, at a Good Guys store in Sacramento, the police tried to shoot a gunman holding many people hostage. But the shot went through glass, causing a deflection, which left the gunman slightly wounded in the ear, instead of being seriously wounded or killed.

Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: Ballistic Calculator
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2022, 06:47:16 AM »

A point I should make about the Carcano rifle.

Expert shooters, attempting really difficult shots, like between 1000 to 1500 yards, when they miss, they usually miss not because they didn’t line up the crosshairs on the target, but because they misestimated something.

They may misestimate the amount of crosswind. If they do, that could turn what would be an accurate shot at a human into a complete miss by several feet.

They may misestimate the range. The bullet start dropping pretty sharply after 1000 yards. A small error in an estimate of the range can cause a miss by several feet.

What would be useful, even for an expert, is a magical rifle that automatically provides the correct setting for the scope, to within two inches, every time. This would not guarantee a hit with each shot. But if the crosshairs were lined up on the center of the target when the trigger was pulled, the shot would hit, every time. And could do so with both stationary and moving targets, regardless of the speed or direction of the motion.

Oswald, at Dealey Plaza, with the Carcano, had a rifle that was as good as such a magical rifle. At least in the vertical. For all three shots, he would miss by less than two inches, high or low, if the iron sights were lined up with the center of the head.

Miss low by 0.8 inches for the first, miss low by 1.5 inches for the second, and miss high by 1.7 inches for the third.

The Carcano, of course, was not designed to do this, to provide a sighting that is accurate to within two inches at any range. Regardless of how the target was moving. No rifle can be designed to do that. Some weapon system could be designed to do that, I suppose, to use radar or some other method to automatically estimate the range of the target, and estimate the target’s velocity, and provide a scope that automatically makes the proper adjustment, but no rifle in the world can do this.

The Carcano did so by nothing more than luck. It just turns out that the Carcano, with the iron sights adjusted to 200 meters, just happens to provide a good adjustment for all three shots. Once the angular velocity of the target dropped low enough that Oswald was able to center the shots on the head, he made a successful shot.

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Re: Ballistic Calculator
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2022, 06:47:16 AM »


Online Charles Collins

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Re: Ballistic Calculator
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2022, 01:15:25 PM »
Excellent question.

I understand the distance for the shot at General Walker was 105 feet, or 35 yards. And it was a stationary target. So, one would think if Oswald was going to make any shot, it would be that one.

However, there are two complications.

1.   At 105 feet, the 200 meter zero sighted Carcano would miss high by 2.6 inches, as you can see from the chart I have in the original post.
This is more than Oswald should miss for the second and third shot at Dealey Plaza, 1.5 inches low and 1.7 inches high.

It is possible that Oswald had not practiced firing his rifle when he shot at General Walker and did not know his rifle would miss 2.6 inches high. This would increase the chances of a missed shot, if aiming at the head.

2.   A much more significant factor, is the bullet either struck the glass, or the frame, or both, of a window. Even if General Walker was just a few feet beyond the window, a slight deflection could cause an accurately aimed shot to miss completely.

In 1991, at a Good Guys store in Sacramento, the police tried to shoot a gunman holding many people hostage. But the shot went through glass, causing a deflection, which left the gunman slightly wounded in the ear, instead of being seriously wounded or killed.


Thanks!

I have also read that Walker said that he moved his head downward to retrieve something at just the instant that the shot was fired. And that he believes that if that hadn’t happened he would have been hit in the head. The photos that I have seen do show damage to a wooden piece of the window. A combination of all these items appears to me to be probable.

I should have also asked what the distance is that the investigators used to attempt to zero-in the scope. Just curious.

Offline Steve M. Galbraith

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Re: Ballistic Calculator
« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2022, 04:07:02 PM »
Thanks for the nice work and information Joe! Just out of curiosity, does anyone know the approximate distance of the shot that missed at the house of General Walker? I think that I have read that it is a relatively close-range shot also. But just wondering how it compares distance-wise to the shots in Dealey Plaza.
In his book on the assassinations of Lincoln and JFK, John Lattimer theorized that it was less than 100 feet. That's if Oswald got inside the fence of Walker's backyard.

Source: "Kennedy and Lincoln: Medical and Ballistics Comparisons of Their Assassination", pg. 134.


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Re: Ballistic Calculator
« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2022, 04:07:02 PM »


 

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