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Author Topic: Colors of Blue and Gold  (Read 48153 times)

Offline Jon Banks

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #80 on: January 11, 2023, 03:10:01 PM »
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The best site (for me) on this is the Institute for Understanding War: https://www.understandingwar.org/

They report this on Soledar: "Russian forces have not captured the entirety of Soledar despite several false Russian claims that the city has fallen and that Bakhmut risks imminent encirclement. Several Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced into the west of Soledar on January 10.[18] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin refuted these claims, remarking that Wagner Group forces are still fighting against concerted Ukrainian resistance.[19] ISW has only observed visual confirmation of Wagner Group forces in central Soledar as of January 10.[20] The reality of block-by-block control of terrain in Soledar is obfuscated by the dynamic nature of urban combat, however, and Russian forces have largely struggled to make significant tactical gains in the Soledar area for months. Even taking the most generous Russian claims at face value,"

What's interesting is they claim Russian forces are increasingly having to use professional/private armies - essentially hiring people, e.g., the Wagner Group - to conduct significant offensive operations. The raw recruits are used for defensive operations only and are incapable of anything more.

There have been no official announcements from the Russian side but the city of Soledar appears to be mostly under Russian control. There may be a few hundred Ukrainian troops left in the Salt Mine area.

Bakhmut is close to being surrounded. Russian forces are advancing from the north and south of the city.

Russia's army would not win a Ground war against a NATO country but Ukraine isn't a NATO country. Ukraine would've lost this war months ago if not for the intelligence sharing and military aid they've gotten from the US and other NATO countries.

And yet still, they're losing territory and suffering huge numbers of casualties.

The best case scenario for Ukraine in this war is to fight Russia to a stalemate. Anyone who thinks Ukraine alone can militarily force Russia to withdraw from Ukraine is delusional in my honest opinion.

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #80 on: January 11, 2023, 03:10:01 PM »


Offline Jon Banks

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #81 on: January 11, 2023, 03:19:40 PM »
Russian lost Kherson, a city with a population of 280,000 (pre-war 2020). It was the only administration center of an Oblast (sort of like a U. S. state) that Russia captured in 2022. It was abandoned by the Russians within a few days of the U. S. elections in November (don't want to hurt the Pro-Trump candidates). So they needed something to offset the loss of that city, for the Russian public.


Ukraine lost Kherson within the first few weeks of the war. Russia took the city relatively easier than other cities in eastern Ukraine. There's some evidence that the local officials in Kherson simply switched sides early on which is part of why the city was captured by Russia so quickly.

As for the Russian withdrawal, it happened because Russia's commanders wanted to leave Kherson city. After Ukraine was given HIMAR launchers, it became too difficult for Russia to supply their forces on the west side of the river in Kherson. So it's more accurate to say that Russia surrendered the city due to the logistics problems. They weren't driven out by Ukrainian ground forces (who failed in dozens of attempts take Kherson between the summer and fall).

Soledar and Bakhmut reportedly are major logistics hubs for Ukrainian forces. Losing those cities will make it more difficult for Ukraine's supply lines on the eastern front. There are also reportedly miles of underground tunnels in that area which the Russians can use to support their logistics in Ukraine and hide equipment from spy western satellites.

The battles for those two cities have been costly for both sides. I doubt that Ukraine would sacrifice so many troops to defend them if they were insignificant targets.

Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #82 on: January 11, 2023, 03:30:32 PM »
Great quote from Yevgeny Prigozhin—who heads up the Wagner Group:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-state-tv-says-country-needs-morale-boost-alone-against-the-world/ar-AA16dq93?ocid=Peregrine&cvid=7691b5ba978a40059e5cf27606f13afe

Quote
"Units of the Wagner private military company have taken the entire territory of Soledar under their control. The city center has been surrounded, and urban warfare is under way. The number of captives will be announced tomorrow," the statement read, according to the Tass readout.

Urban warfare is still under way? So, it appears that Soledar has been totally taken by the Wagner group, but a lot of fighting has broken out among the victorious Russian troops who now occupy the town. Well, what do you expect from a bunch of convicts?
« Last Edit: January 11, 2023, 03:31:31 PM by Joe Elliott »

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #82 on: January 11, 2023, 03:30:32 PM »


Online Richard Smith

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #83 on: January 11, 2023, 04:45:33 PM »
So as VP Old Joe visited Ukraine SIX times as VP.  He was apparently so interested in Ukraine that he made a visit there on his last day as VP.  Such interest in that country.  And it had nothing do with his son being paid millions from that country.  Just a coincidence.  He was tirelessly promoting democracy even when leaving office.  And the classified documents he left in his private office had something to do with - guess who - Ukraine.  LOL.  And we are supposed to believe that six years after leaving office as VP that Biden's lawyers just decided one day to look through some boxes of papers locked in that office.  They had nothing better to do and surprise!  They found some classified documents.  But they don't announce this to the public until two months after the election.  In fact, they don't announce or explain it at all.  The corruption and legal double standard are astounding.  Trump would have been impeached and imprisoned by now if he had done anything like this.

Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #84 on: January 11, 2023, 09:00:11 PM »

So as VP Old Joe visited Ukraine SIX times as VP.  He was apparently so interested in Ukraine that he made a visit there on his last day as VP.  Such interest in that country.  And it had nothing do with his son being paid millions from that country.  Just a coincidence.  He was tirelessly promoting democracy even when leaving office.  And the classified documents he left in his private office had something to do with - guess who - Ukraine.  LOL.  And we are supposed to believe that six years after leaving office as VP that Biden's lawyers just decided one day to look through some boxes of papers locked in that office.  They had nothing better to do and surprise!  They found some classified documents.  But they don't announce this to the public until two months after the election.  In fact, they don't announce or explain it at all.  The corruption and legal double standard are astounding.  Trump would have been impeached and imprisoned by now if he had done anything like this.

Do I believe the documents were just discovered? Yes, I do. Biden might want the discovery hidden until after the election. But getting his lawyers to sign off on this? I don't think so. They would be subject to disbarment or worse if they didn't hand in the documents immediately.

Vice President Biden visiting Ukraine six times does not sound suspicious either. Ukraine was clearly menaced by Russia. And this became particularly clear during 2014. I wish the Obama administration had done more during 2014-2016. But we, in part, made up for lost time during January 2020 through February 2021, at least just enough to allow Ukraine to somehow to hold off the Russians.

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #84 on: January 11, 2023, 09:00:11 PM »


Online Richard Smith

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #85 on: January 11, 2023, 09:11:41 PM »
Do I believe the documents were just discovered? Yes, I do. Biden might want the discovery hidden until after the election. But getting his lawyers to sign off on this? I don't think so. They would be subject to disbarment or worse if they didn't hand in the documents immediately.

Vice President Biden visiting Ukraine six times does not sound suspicious either. Ukraine was clearly menaced by Russia. And this became particularly clear during 2014. I wish the Obama administration had done more during 2014-2016. But we, in part, made up for lost time during January 2020 through February 2021, at least just enough to allow Ukraine to somehow to hold off the Russians.

The Dems knew that the Repubs would start investigating Biden, Inc. after taking over the House.  So they instructed Biden's lawyers to conduct a search for the missing classified documents which were then "found" in a closet after six years.  They self-reported to avoid being caught in an investigation.  Then covered it up until after the election.  The lawyers were a tool to fix the problem.  They did nothing wrong.  It was their client who violated federal law and should go to prison according to his own views expressed about Trump.  And you really don't find it strange that on his last day as VP, Biden take a trip to Ukraine?  Why?  He was on his way out of office the next day, but he travels around the world for some reason.  It's all just bad luck.  And that "Penn Biden Center" is a classic mafia-like money laundering scam.  The corruption associated with that place is almost laughable.

Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #86 on: January 11, 2023, 09:22:53 PM »
Ukraine lost Kherson within the first few weeks of the war. Russia took the city relatively easier than other cities in eastern Ukraine. There's some evidence that the local officials in Kherson simply switched sides early on which is part of why the city was captured by Russia so quickly.

As for the Russian withdrawal, it happened because Russia's commanders wanted to leave Kherson city. After Ukraine was given HIMAR launchers, it became too difficult for Russia to supply their forces on the west side of the river in Kherson. So it's more accurate to say that Russia surrendered the city due to the logistics problems. They weren't driven out by Ukrainian ground forces (who failed in dozens of attempts take Kherson between the summer and fall).

Soledar and Bakhmut reportedly are major logistics hubs for Ukrainian forces. Losing those cities will make it more difficult for Ukraine's supply lines on the eastern front. There are also reportedly miles of underground tunnels in that area which the Russians can use to support their logistics in Ukraine and hide equipment from spy western satellites.

The battles for those two cities have been costly for both sides. I doubt that Ukraine would sacrifice so many troops to defend them if they were insignificant targets.

Kherson would not have been hard to keep supplied, if it was not being effectively attacked by Ukraine. So, yes, the Russians were driven out of Kherson.

The Ukrainians took an even larger slice of territory back near Kharhiv. Was this territory on the wrong side of a river?

How are the Russians going to hold the Crimea when it's not on the wrong side of a river but on the wrong side of a strait, with just one long bridge across it, and a narrow and vulnerable land bridge connection? That will be a neat trick.

The Ukrainians have already taken back half of the territories the Russians took in the first few months of the war in 2022. Look for more of the same in 2023, when the ground dries out. And the Ukrainian soldiers who are now receiving NATO training on combined arms return to the front. While reluctant Russian draftees receive almost no training and have their winter clothes stolen from them.

How many of the 24 Ukrainian Oblast administration centers did Russia take in 2022? Only one, Kherson. How many of these does Russia still control? Zero.

Any city of 70,000 or 10,000 could be called "a major communication hub". Name me one city that isn't?

Soledar is strategic because of it's tunnels? It could be used to store ammunition? Yes, it would be a great place. A huge ammunition dump right on the front line, where a minor advance by Ukraine allows the Ukrainian army to capture it and use the ammunition themselves. And how about the job of a Russian truck driver. Driving a Russian truck filled with artillery ammunition right up to the Ukrainian front line. Yes, this makes total sense. I can see how taking Soledar would be an immediate strategic victory for Russia that they can start taking advantage of right away. Soledar won't be useful until Soledar is taken and the Russians are able to drive the Ukrainians back many more miles from there, something we don't see anything like that remotely happening.

Bakhmut and Soledar are strategically important because they happen to lie on the Ukrainian side of the front where it ended up being established when Ukraine managed to stop the Russian offensives this year. Nothing more. The Russians are just looking for some sort of victory to present to the Russian people to offset the major loss of territory in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2023, 09:29:07 PM by Joe Elliott »

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #86 on: January 11, 2023, 09:22:53 PM »


Offline Jon Banks

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #87 on: January 11, 2023, 09:28:34 PM »
So as VP Old Joe visited Ukraine SIX times as VP.  He was apparently so interested in Ukraine that he made a visit there on his last day as VP.  Such interest in that country.  And it had nothing do with his son being paid millions from that country.  Just a coincidence.

Not coincidental in the sense that President Obama delegated Ukraine policy to Biden. Which doesn't make the Hunter Biden-Ukraine thing look any better of course. It definitely stinks that a Ukrainian oligarch gave the Vice President's son a lucrative job.

But aside from that, Obama was focused more on Iran, Syria, and Cuba in his second term and largely delegated Ukraine to Biden. Obama resisted bi-partisan calls to send weapons to Ukraine while Biden supported arming Ukraine.

Obama I think primarily focused on securing the Iran Nuclear Deal, which meant he needed to work with Vladimir Putin because Russia is on the UN Security Council. The Iran deal also affected Obama's Syria policies.

Long story short, there's nothing obviously bad about Biden's involvement with Ukraine as Obama's VP. But Hunter Biden's job with the Ukrainian energy company still looks like a clear conflict of interest and it shouldn't have happened.