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Author Topic: Colors of Blue and Gold  (Read 48171 times)

Offline Jon Banks

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #112 on: January 26, 2023, 12:35:26 AM »
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The Leopard 2 tanks are superior to the best Russian tanks.

On paper maybe. It's difficult to predict how effective these tanks will be in action against Russia's tanks and anti-tank missiles.

I'm not an expert on tanks but I know it usually requires months if not years of training for operators to be competent in combat with modern tanks. So it won't matter much how much better the leopard tanks are if Ukrainians don't get adequate training on them.

And I'm assuming they're getting older Leopard tanks, not the most modern versions but I could be wrong.

Combined arms warfare isn't like playing Call of Duty. It takes months, and sometimes years, of training to use certain tanks and artillery machines competently.

I don't think this is looking like an impeding stalemate. The Ukrainians have held their own with limited aid so far. Let's see what the summer brings before we start to make any conclusions about an unwinnable war.

For me, I don't see how Russia can hold Crimea this year. How can the prevent the Ukrainians cutting the Crimea Land Bridge to the north? Those Leopard 2's are going to be hard to stop. The Russian's couldn't stop the Ukrainians when all they had was inferior Soviet tanks. The Russians are now going to have more luck against the Leopard 2's?

How can they prevent the Ukrainians taking out the Crimea bridge itself to the east?

How can the Russian's supply Crimea from the sea when the Moskva could not defend itself?

How can the Russian's supply Crimea through the air when both sides have such good anti-aircraft defenses. The one strong point of old Soviet equipment. Along with lots of artillery.

How can any country hold territory that is cut off? Are the Russian's going to dig a tunnel from Russia to Crimea in the next few months?

So let's wait and see how the summer plays out for Russia.

I've so far seen no proof that Crimea (which Russians can currently reach by land, sea, or air) is suffering from supply problems. And no, Ukraine's air defenses are not on par with Russia's.

Seems like you're getting ahead of yourself in discussing Crimea while Ukraine continues to lose ground in recent weeks. I know that things can change quickly in war but currently, Russia seems to have gained some momentum. The Russians absolutely could run out of steam again like last year but the mobilized forces in recent weeks appear to be making an impact. It remains to be seen whether or not Ukraine can organize another Kharkiv-like offensive. I wouldn't rule it out.

« Last Edit: January 26, 2023, 12:37:43 AM by Jon Banks »

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #112 on: January 26, 2023, 12:35:26 AM »


Offline Jon Banks

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #113 on: January 26, 2023, 12:40:40 AM »
The US was again duped into sending tanks by our German "allies" who have done almost nothing.  The US is sending over $100 billion in weapons to Ukraine, but the Germans would only send a few tanks if the US sent our tanks.  Unreal.  And, of course, the US has paid to defend Germany for over seven decades.

The US Abrams tanks might never see action in Ukraine. Germany got played it seems (they said they would only send their tanks if the US sent tanks):

"The Pentagon had long been reluctant to send the Abrams, in part because they are exceptionally complex machines that are challenging to operate and maintain. As it is, officials have said it could take a year or even longer for them to actually reach the battlefield in Ukraine."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/25/world/russia-ukraine-news#biden-announces-31-abrams-tanks-for-ukraine-but-says-the-move-is-not-meant-to-escalate-the-war

Either way, Ukraine needs hundreds of tanks asap, not dozens, but dozens is what they're getting.


Online Richard Smith

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #114 on: January 26, 2023, 01:29:49 AM »
The US Abrams tanks might never see action in Ukraine. Germany got played it seems (they said they would only send their tanks if the US sent tanks):

"The Pentagon had long been reluctant to send the Abrams, in part because they are exceptionally complex machines that are challenging to operate and maintain. As it is, officials have said it could take a year or even longer for them to actually reach the battlefield in Ukraine."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/25/world/russia-ukraine-news#biden-announces-31-abrams-tanks-for-ukraine-but-says-the-move-is-not-meant-to-escalate-the-war

Either way, Ukraine needs hundreds of tanks asap, not dozens, but dozens is what they're getting.

Hitler sent thousands of tanks against Russia and lost.  So it is difficult to understand how 14 Leopards is going to change the situation.  What happens next is that Ukraine will insist on jets.  When that doesn't change the situation, they will request US and NATO ground troops.  The problem here is that no matter what they are sent it is up to Russians as to when this war ends.  Ukraine can't militarily defeat Russia by driving to Moscow.  They can only keep up the fight and hope the Russians eventually lose their political will to continue the war.  A strategy that generally takes many years.

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #114 on: January 26, 2023, 01:29:49 AM »


Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #115 on: January 26, 2023, 03:36:39 AM »

On paper maybe. It's difficult to predict how effective these tanks will be in action against Russia's tanks and anti-tank missiles.

Ukrainians have been successful against Soviet era Russia tanks just using their own Soviet era tanks, plus using the ones they captured from the Russians. They will have more success with the Leopard 2.

I'm not an expert on tanks but I know it usually requires months if not years of training for operators to be competent in combat with modern tanks. So it won't matter much how much better the leopard tanks are if Ukrainians don't get adequate training on them.

Learning the Abrams will take a lot of time. I don't know if the Ukrainians should even bother for now. But the Leopard 2 is a very different story. Military experts believe that just a few weeks of training on the Leopard 2 would be enough to make a crew, already familiar with tanks (like the T-72), effective. Not as effective as they would be with more training. But effective enough. More effective than just staying with their old familiar T-72.

And I'm assuming they're getting older Leopard tanks, not the most modern versions but I could be wrong.

Doesn't matter. The Oldest Leopard 2 tanks are superior to anything the Russians have, including their newest T-14 which is so bad, they haven't used in combat. They send in the ancient T-62's instead. The T-14 can't handle a parade, let alone be used in combat.

Combined arms warfare isn't like playing Call of Duty. It takes months, and sometimes years, of training to use certain tanks and artillery machines competently.

The experts say that training on the Leopard 2 won't take nearly as long as training on other tanks, like the Abrams. That is one reason why the much superior Abrams (in many ways) won't be a factor at all this year, or probably the next, if the war goes on that long. But the Leopard 2 is a different story.

I've so far seen no proof that Crimea (which Russians can currently reach by land, sea, or air) is suffering from supply problems. And no, Ukraine's air defenses are not on par with Russia's.

No, it isn't. And it won't, until Ukraine cuts the Crimea Land Bridge and the regular Crimea Bridge to the east. Then it will start to be a big supply problem.

Seems like you're getting ahead of yourself in discussing Crimea while Ukraine continues to lose ground in recent weeks. I know that things can change quickly in war but currently, Russia seems to have gained some momentum. The Russians absolutely could run out of steam again like last year but the mobilized forces in recent weeks appear to be making an impact. It remains to be seen whether or not Ukraine can organize another Kharkiv-like offensive. I wouldn't rule it out.

The labored gains the Russians made in the last few weeks, crawling forward yards per day, are nothing compared to the big gains the Ukrainians had east of Kharkov in September, or in the Kherson region in November. Since mid-summer, when we finally go them some accurate long range strike ability, with the HIMARS, the overall momentum has been going Ukraine's way.

In any war, the side that is losing can always point to minor gains. German propaganda conceded that the Western allies and the Russians did have their gains, in France, in Belorussia. But the Germans had their successes too. In the Eastern Prussia counterattack. The advances during the Battle of the Bulge. The advances the Germans made against Strasbourg during Operation Nordwind. All these German counterattacks were tiny compared to the advances the Allies made during 1944. And the smallest of these German advances were much much greater than all the advances the Russians have made in the last six months.

Offline Jon Banks

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #116 on: January 26, 2023, 04:39:03 AM »

Learning the Abrams will take a lot of time. I don't know if the Ukrainians should even bother for now. But the Leopard 2 is a very different story. Military experts believe that just a few weeks of training on the Leopard 2 would be enough to make a crew, already familiar with tanks (like the T-72), effective. Not as effective as they would be with more training. But effective enough. More effective than just staying with their old familiar T-72.

We'll see. Aside from using the tanks, maintenance is an obstacle too. The tanks will need to be sent hundreds of miles to Poland whenever they need repairs.

The other logistical obstacle is ammo. Some of these NATO weapons systems use different ammo from what the Ukrainians have typically used.

At some level these Western tanks may help Ukraine but it's not likely to be a game-changer.

Doesn't matter. The Oldest Leopard 2 tanks are superior to anything the Russians have, including their newest T-14 which is so bad, they haven't used in combat. They send in the ancient T-62's instead. The T-14 can't handle a parade, let alone be used in combat.

The Russian T-90M tank is pretty good. And Russian anti-tank missiles have destroyed Leopard tanks in other conflicts.


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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #116 on: January 26, 2023, 04:39:03 AM »


Online Richard Smith

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #117 on: January 26, 2023, 01:27:00 PM »
We'll see. Aside from using the tanks, maintenance is an obstacle too. The tanks will need to be sent hundreds of miles to Poland whenever they need repairs.

The other logistical obstacle is ammo. Some of these NATO weapons systems use different ammo from what the Ukrainians have typically used.

At some level these Western tanks may help Ukraine but it's not likely to be a game-changer.

The Russian T-90M tank is pretty good. And Russian anti-tank missiles have destroyed Leopard tanks in other conflicts.

The Russian tried to win this war on the cheap.  They sent their most poorly trained troops and equipment.  That could change.  The Russians have the tanks and troops to overrun Ukraine in a week if they unleash them.  Does NATO and the US allow that to happen or do they send in ground troops? 

Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #118 on: January 26, 2023, 05:09:35 PM »

The Russian tried to win this war on the cheap.  They sent their most poorly trained troops and equipment.  That could change.  The Russians have the tanks and troops to overrun Ukraine in a week if they unleash them.  Does NATO and the US allow that to happen or do they send in ground troops?

Totally false Russian propaganda. Russia has already sent in their best. Like the 1st Guards Tank Army, an elite unit tracing descent back to the army that was formed in 1942 and fought successfully during the Battle of Stalingrad.

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported on 19 May 2022 that army commander General-Lieutenant Sergey Kisel had been suspended for his failure to capture Kharkiv. The same army that helped take Berlin in 1945 could not take Kharkiv in 2022. So much for the 1st Guards Tank Army.

The Russians have even thrown in the experienced men who trained new recruits, leaving no one qualified to train the recent 300,000 draftees.

Because the best has already been thrown in, that is why they lost over 1,000 square miles east of Kharkiv in September. That is why they lost the regional capitol of Kherson in November. And can only gain small slivers of territory around Bakhmut in response, while thousands of Ukrainians are away from the front and out of the country training on NATO equipment or learning NATO combined arms tactics for the real battle in the upcoming summer, spearheaded by the NATO supplied Leopard 2 tanks. Look to the south.

Why is Putin risking civil upheaval by drafting 300,000 nearly worthless draftees, when he could just send in the real army at anytime and steamroll the Ukrainians? Because he has already sent in the real army. The Russian army of 2022 was not the Russian army of 1945. Or even 1980. Even our own military experts grossly overestimated the Russian army, based on past history that no longer applies. It has become a corrupt riddled shell of it's previous self only capable of strong anti-air defense and huge artillery bombardments burning through the Soviet era surplus at a rate which cannot be nearly matched by new production.

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #118 on: January 26, 2023, 05:09:35 PM »


Online Richard Smith

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Re: Colors of Blue and Gold
« Reply #119 on: January 26, 2023, 05:29:48 PM »
Totally false Russian propaganda. Russia has already sent in their best. Like the 1st Guards Tank Army, an elite unit tracing descent back to the army that was formed in 1942 and fought successfully during the Battle of Stalingrad.

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported on 19 May 2022 that army commander General-Lieutenant Sergey Kisel had been suspended for his failure to capture Kharkiv. The same army that helped take Berlin in 1945 could not take Kharkiv in 2022. So much for the 1st Guards Tank Army.

The Russians have even thrown in the experienced men who trained new recruits, leaving no one qualified to train the recent 300,000 draftees.

Because the best has already been thrown in, that is why they lost over 1,000 square miles east of Kharkiv in September. That is why they lost the regional capitol of Kherson in November. And can only gain small slivers of territory around Bakhmut in response, while thousands of Ukrainians are away from the front and out of the country training on NATO equipment or learning NATO combined arms tactics for the real battle in the upcoming summer, spearheaded by the NATO supplied Leopard 2 tanks. Look to the south.

Why is Putin risking civil upheaval by drafting 300,000 nearly worthless draftees, when he could just send in the real army at anytime and steamroll the Ukrainians? Because he has already sent in the real army. The Russian army of 2022 was not the Russian army of 1945. Or even 1980. Even our own military experts grossly overestimated the Russian army, based on past history that no longer applies. It has become a corrupt riddled shell of it's previous self only capable of strong anti-air defense and huge artillery bombardments burning through the Soviet era surplus at a rate which cannot be nearly matched by new production.

There is propaganda but it is not just coming from Russia.  The Russians have not sent their best tanks, planes and soldiers.  They have sent mostly conscripts and mercenaries who are ill-trained and equipped.  The Russians dying in this war are mostly from poor and rural hinterlands with no political influence in Moscow.  It is much riskier to have the elite sons from Moscow and St. Petersburg families dying in Ukraine.  Putin underestimated the resistance.  He can up the ante as he sees fit.  There is no strategy for victory by Ukraine or NATO.  At best they can extend the conflict indefinitely until Ukraine is a pile of rubble.   The only hope being that they eventually out last Russia as the Taliban did in Afghanistan.  A strategy that will take years and maximize the number of deaths and destruction on all sides as in previous such situations.