Just an update on the war in Ukraine as of May 2026.
Ukraine is mostly targeting Russian troops, or military or oil resources in the rear. Russia is mostly targeting Ukrainian civilians, in the hopes of getting Ukraine to eventually throwing in the towel.
How likely are the Russians to succeed? How inevitable is the "inevitable Russian Triumph"?
Well, the U.N. estimates that the total Ukrainian civilian deaths since February 2022 to the present to be under 16,000. And about a third of these deaths occurred in the first month, mostly in face-to-face encounters with Russian troops. Think "Babi Yar" more than Coventry or Dresden, where the crews might think they are taking out military targets, to some extent.
If this enough? Well, Ukraine has more than half the population of Great Britain or Germany during World War II and during that time there were something like 65,000 and 500,000 civilian deaths, respectively.
Russians would need to increase their killing abilities by a factor of ten to approach the levels Germany had in World War II, which was not near enough to get Great Britain to throw in the towel.
It certainly appears that Russia is not going to win this war.
And given Russia's, or the Soviet Union history, this is not surprising. What is their success against a country the size of Ukraine without powerful allies?
* Poland, 1920, failure
* Finland, 1939 failure
Their successes, always with the help of powerful allies:
* Poland in the 1700's, with the help of Prussia and Austria.
* Ukraine in the 1700's, with the help of Austria.
* Poland in 1939, with the heavy lifting being done by Nazi Germany.
* The Baltic States in 1940. These were three separate countries, not one country. And the threat of getting split up with Nazi Germany even if they make a great stand may have been a factor in
deciding not to fight. Again, having a powerful ally on their side.
* Eastern Europe in 1944-1945, with a huge amount of help from the U. S. and
Great Britain.
On their own, not so good. Inefficiencies usually increased a lot by corruption. Corruption, a consistent theme, except during the Soviet era, which is long gone. Consistently, Russian lack of 'Quality' seems to outweigh Russian 'Quantity', time and time again.
Why do people believe that 'Quantity' will always overcome 'Quality' when that notion is so poorly supported by history?
Why should we expect the 2020's to be any different?
As far as making peace is concerned, for the "benefit" of the Ukrainian people, remember, a third of the Ukrainian civilian deaths occurred in the first month. Death rates did not go down after Nazi Germany achieved "peace" in Poland, the Baltic States and Ukraine but shot up greatly once the front lines moved on and the Germans had solid control of those regions during 1939-1944. Something similar can be expected if Ukraine loses.
In any case, the decision to accept a Russian "Peace" should be made by the Ukrainians, not by us, even if we "claim" we are on the side of the Ukrainian
