U.S. Politics

[Rick Plant]

Under President Biden's leadership, we're on track to reduce this year’s deficit by $1.7 trillion.

That’s the single largest nominal decline in the federal deficit in American history.


Assistant Secretary Ben Harris @AsstSecEcon

Newly released Mid-Session Review shows the FY22 deficit will be down by $1.7T+ compared to last year's deficit, & down by roughly $2T compared to the deficit the year before @POTUS took office. That's the largest YoY decline in history, & it's been driven by our strong recovery.

This Administration's management of the pandemic has allowed us to wind down emergency measures and improve the country's fiscal position. Significant increases in revenues stemming from an historically strong economic recovery have supported this improvement, as well.

The Inflation Reduction Act exemplifies the President's commitment to fiscal responsibility, as the Act's provisions -- especially with respect to corporate tax revenues -- will help drive historic reductions in the federal deficit over time.

https://twitter.com/AsstSecEcon/status/1562186273279938560


White House Cuts FY 2022 Budget Deficit Forecast as Revenues Rise

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The White House on Tuesday revised down its projected fiscal 2022 deficit to $1.032 trillion, a $383 billion reduction from its budget forecast in March, reflecting stronger-than-expected revenues offset by new spending and technical re-estimates of healthcare and other outlays.

The White House's mid-session budget review includes the impact of legislation passed since President Joe Biden's administration proposed its fiscal 2023 budget in March, including the Consolidated Appropriations Act and a supplemental spending bill to help Ukraine fight the Russian invasion.

The new forecasts, completed on June 9, do not include legislation passed since then, including a $52 billion semiconductor and research subsidy act and a $430 billion package of tax increases and healthcare and clean energy investments. The latter law is expected to reduce deficits further.

The biggest part of the reduced deficit projection for fiscal 2022 comes from a $504 billion increase in revenues above levels forecast in March, mainly due to higher individual income tax receipts spurred by stronger job and wage growth, but also from increased corporate and excise taxes.

Outlays increased $121 billion from the March forecast, largely due to spending legislation passed earlier this year, and estimated increases in net interest costs and higher spending on Medicaid healthcare for the poor, as well as student loans and financial assistance.

The White House also adjusted down its economic projections, with 2022 U.S. real GDP growth cut sharply to 1.4% from 3.8% in March, based on fourth-quarter comparisons. It cited the resurgence of the COVID-19 Omicron variant, the war in Ukraine, persistent inflation and higher interest rates for the slowdown.

It revised its inflation projection for 2022 to 6.6%, now in line with private forecasters, from 2.9% in the March forecast. The forecast revises the 2022 average unemployment rate slightly lower, to 3.7% from 3.9% in March, with much of the next decade at 3.8%.

The fiscal year ends Sept 30, 2022.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/white-house-revises-fiscal-2022-deficit-projection-lower-2022-08-23/

[Rick Plant]

Florida Democrats choose Rep. Crist to challenge DeSantis



MIAMI — U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist won the Democratic nomination for governor in Florida on Tuesday, setting him up to challenge Gov. Ron DeSantis this fall in a campaign that the Republican incumbent sees as the first step toward a potential White House run.

In selecting Crist, Florida Democrats sided with a candidate backed by many in the party’s establishment who viewed him as the safest choice, even after he lost his previous two statewide elections. The 66-year-old moderate, who served as Florida’s Republican governor a decade ago, hopes to appeal to voters in Florida’s teeming suburbs as Democrats seek to reverse a losing pattern in a state that was recently seen as a perennial political battleground.

Above all, the Democratic contest centered on DeSantis, who views his November reelection as a potential springboard into the 2024 presidential contest. Given the stakes, Democrats across Florida and beyond expressed a real sense of urgency to blunt DeSantis’ momentum.

Crist decried DeSantis as an “abusive” and “dangerous” “bully” in his victory speech.

“Tonight, the people of Florida clearly sent a message: They want a governor who cares about them and solves real problems, preserves our freedom, not a bully who divides us and takes our freedom away,” Crist declared. “This guy wants to be president of the United States of America and everybody knows it. However, when we defeat him on Nov. 8 that show is over. Enough.”

Crist won the Democratic nomination over Nikki Fried, the state agriculture commissioner. She staked out a more progressive campaign and was particularly vocal in defending abortion and LGBTQ rights. The 44-year-old cast herself as “something new” and hoped to become Florida’s first female governor. In a sign of the party’s meager standing in Florida, she’s currently the only Democrat holding statewide office.

“We are going to make Ronald DeSantis a one-term governor and a zero-term president of the United States,” she said as she conceded Tuesday, calling on her supporters to unite behind Crist.

DeSantis won his first election by less than half a percentage point, but soon became one of the most prominent figures in GOP politics. His hands-off approach to the pandemic and eagerness to lean into divides over race, gender and LGBTQ rights have resonated with many Republican voters who see DeSantis as a natural heir to former President Donald Trump.

The Florida contest concludes the busiest stretch of primaries this year, which featured contests in 18 states over just 22 days. In that span, Republicans from Arizona to Alaska have supported contenders who embraced Trump’s lies that the 2020 election was stolen, an assertion roundly rejected by elections officials, the former president’s attorney general and judges he appointed.

AFP


Charlie Crist rips into Gov. Ron DeSantis in Democratic primary win speech

Watch: https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/video/charlie-crist-rips-into-gov-ron-desantis-in-democratic-primary-win-speech/

[Rick Plant]

Democrat Pat Ryan will WIN the contentious special election for NY-19. President Biden only won the district by 2 points and the polls and pundits predicted the GOP would likely take back the seat. They all got it wrong. The Republican Party is in big trouble in November.






Democrat Pat Ryan wins bellwether special election in New York’s Hudson Valley

The race in the battleground district has been closely watched around the nation



ALBANY, N.Y. — Democrat Pat Ryan won a special election Tuesday in a swing district in New York’s Hudson Valley, a significant victory for his party in a seat which has been closely watched as the country’s best bellwether this summer.

Ryan, the Ulster County executive, led Republican Marc Molinaro with 51 percent of the vote when the Associated Press called the race shortly after midnight. The district is closely divided: President Joe Biden carried it by fewer than 2 percentage points in 2020.

The race in the battleground district, which had been represented by Democrat Antonio Delgado until he left to become New York’s lieutenant governor in May, saw both candidates focus their messaging on the issues that will dominate each party’s talking points in November.

Ryan’s television ads hammered on the need to elect a representative who would fight for abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s June decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

The outcome marked the latest in a string of recent House special elections in which Democrats have outperformed recent baseline numbers in the districts.

“Choice was on the ballot,” Ryan said in a statement while declaring victory. “Freedom was on the ballot, and tonight choice and freedom won. We voted like our democracy was on the line because it is.”

Top Democrats quickly touted his victory as a sign there’s more to come as they look to maintain control of the House in the general elections in November.

“Upstate New Yorkers showed up to the polls and voted for a true champion who will stand up for the values we hold sacred in New York — reproductive freedom, protecting our fundamental rights, and creating opportunity for everyone,” Delgado said in a statement.

Ryan, a graduate of nearby West Point, has been executive of the increasingly-blue county in the Hudson Valley since 2019. Ryan overwhelmingly won his home county of Ulster and nearby Columbia County and stayed competitive against Molinaro in Dutchess to carry him to victory.

Ryan will serve only four months in the current district, and he and Molinaro will be on the ballot again in November — but in separate competitive districts.

Ryan handily defeated primary opponent Moses Mugulusi on Tuesday in his race for a full term in November, and he will face off against Republican Assemblyman Colin Schmitt in a seat centered on Poughkeepsie.

AFP

[Rick Plant]

Pat Ryan @PatRyanUC

Choice was on the ballot. Freedom was on the ballot, and tonight choice and freedom won. We voted like our democracy was on the line because it is. We upended everything we thought we knew about politics and did it together.

#NY19, it will be my honor to serve you in Congress.



https://twitter.com/PatRyanUC/status/1562299441004126208

[Rick Plant]

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney wins NY congressional seat over Sen. Alessandra Biaggi



NEW YORK — U.S. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney was declared the Democratic winner in Tuesday’s primary in New York’s newly drawn 17th District in the Hudson Valley over his progressive opponent, New York state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi, D-Bronx, by the Associated Press.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair had powerhouse endorsements, including former President Bill Clinton, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the New York Times editorial board. Biaggi was supported by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, the Working Families Party and other progressive groups.

© New York Daily News



Rep. Jerrold Nadler defeats Rep. Carolyn Maloney in blockbuster NY congressional primary



NEW YORK — Rep. Jerrold Nadler trounced Rep. Carolyn Maloney in their blockbuster Manhattan primary Tuesday, holding on to the district he has represented for three decades and ousting a fellow Democratic congressional titan after an unusually contentious campaign.

Nadler, a veteran Upper West Side liberal, held nearly 56% of the vote total compared with the 24% clinched by Maloney, his colleague-turned-rival from the Upper East Side, according to early state Board of Elections returns from the 12th Congressional District primary. Insurgent candidate Suraj Patel trailed them with about 19%.

Nadler, the powerful head of the House Judiciary Committee, has represented different versions of a West Side-based district for three decades, rarely facing more than token primary opposition since his first 1992 election.

But the usual cakewalk turned into a cage fight when a court-appointed special master redrew New York’s congressional district lines earlier this year to effectively combine Nadler’s political base with Maloney’s. The two congressional veterans — Maloney was also first elected in 1991 — decided to run against each other as a result.

The two cordial allies quickly turned to lobbing political attacks at one another as a potentially career-ending loss loomed for one or the other.

With little of political substance dividing them, Nadler touted his modest upbringing and his long history of fighting for liberal causes.

Maloney, who leads the similarly powerful House Oversight Committee, suggested that a woman would be better placed to argue the case for abortion rights and gun control.

She also portrayed herself as a more-effective fighter for local causes like the battle to win benefits for 9/11 first responders. Toward the tail end of the campaign, Maloney took on a more aggressive tone, questioning Nadler’s mental state and even claiming he was going “senile.”

Nadler later gained momentum when U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, New York’s most powerful Democrat in Congress, endorsed him.

Polls earlier in the race showed a tight race between Nadler and Maloney. But in the last couple of weeks, surveys showed Nadler opening up a decent-sized lead.

© New York Daily News



Charlie Crist wallops Nikki Fried in Democratic primary for Florida governor



ORLANDO, Fla. — Charlie Crist soundly defeated Nikki Fried in the Democratic primary for governor on Tuesday, prevailing in what became a bitter campaign to take on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in the general election.

Crist had 59.9% of the vote to Fried’s 35.2%, with 81% of the precincts reporting.

“Tonight, the people of Florida clearly sent a message: They want a governor who cares about them and solves real problems, preserves our freedom, not a bully who divides us and takes our freedom away,” Crist declared in a victory speech in St. Petersburg. “This guy wants to be president of the United States of America and everybody knows it. However, when we defeat them on Nov. 8 that show is over. Enough.”

Crist praised Fried for “fighting the good fight,” adding, “We share the same goal. To save our state and defeat DeSantis.”

In her concession speech in Fort Lauderdale, Fried said she called Crist to congratulate him on his win and pledged to campaign to elect Democrats “up and down the ballot.”

“We are going to make Ron DeSantis a one-term governor and a zero-term president of the United States,” Fried told her supporters. “This is a time that we as Democrats are going to come together. We have to be united like we have never been united before.”

U.S. Rep. Crist, 66, and Agriculture Commissioner Fried, 44, largely agreed on most issues, including addressing the housing and homeowners insurance crises. They both vowed to roll back DeSantis’ culture wars, including the so-called “don’t say gay” law that led to a DeSantis clash with Walt Disney Co.

Crist also is seeking his second term as governor after serving as a Republican from 2007 to 2011.

Fried, who adopted the slogan “Something New,” attacked Crist as a former Republican governor and blamed him for conservative picks he made to the state Supreme Court. Crist said this year he regretted two of his selections to the court as governor.

After Roe v. Wade was overturned in June, Fried doubled down on reminding Democratic voters of Crist’s past description of himself as “pro-life.”

She ran ads with Crist repeating the phrase and referred to herself as the only abortion rights candidate, despite Crist’s endorsement by state Rep. Anna Eskamani, a former Planned Parenthood official, and others.

Crist responded by saying, if elected, he would protect abortion rights.

Crist fired back at Fried during the debate in July, citing her contribution to Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody, a friend of Fried’s from college. His campaign also highlighted Fried’s 2018 retweet of GOP U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz writing, “Prosecute Hillary Clinton, not medical marijuana businesses and patients.”

He called her attacks on him an act of “desperation” by a candidate who was far behind.

© Orlando Sentinel

[Rick Plant]

How Democrat Pat Ryan Won Over Voters In NY District Special Election

Democratic candidate Pat Ryan secured the win in a New York congressional district special election over Republican Marc Molinaro, running on a platform to protect American freedoms including reproductive rights. NBC News' Sahil Kapur explains how Ryan's message motivated voters to the polls in a swing district.

Watch:

[Rick Plant]

Dems just had a great night at the polls – experts are calling it a ‘significantly more democratic environment’



Dems just had a great night at the polls – experts are calling it a ‘significantly more democratic environment’

Political pundits agree Democrats had a great night at the polls on Tuesday, but the real experts – not the TV pundits or social media influencers, but actual experts who study the numbers and the history down to the smallest details, are saying Democrats had a great night.

Here’s why:

The Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade is nothing to celebrate. Women will die as a result. Many unwanted children will be born as a result. Families will grow poorer as a result. Women’s careers will suffer as a result. And many women have lost and will continue to lose the right to bodily autonomy.

But the Supreme Court turning a woman’s right to choose into a political issue has fired up women, and Democratic voters, and those who are deciding they can no longer vote for Republicans after the GOP’s 50-year push to take away the constitutional right to abortion succeeded.

As in any election, it’s always about enthusiasm.

Many are pointing to New York’s 19th congressional district (NY-19), the former district of Democrat Antonio Delgado, who resigned to become Lt. Governor. Many pundits thought Republicans would win that special election Tuesday night, but Democrat Pat Ryan won with a healthy 51.9% of the vote.

Pointing to the NY-19 race, Karen Defilippi, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Deputy Executive Director for Campaigns and Political offers these insights that should please Democrats:

“There are 222 House seats better than NY19 by Biden performance,” she writes. “Republicans spent heavily to lose,” and “This is the 4th House special election in a row where Dems have outperformed Biden.”

G. Elliott Morris, The Economist’s data journalist concurs, writing, “Tonight makes 4 federal special elections since June with a strong Dem overperformance. There is simply no denying that we are in a significantly more Democratic environment than November 2021.”

Daniel Nichanian, the Editor-in-Chief of Bolts Magazine, which covers “the nuts and bolts of power and political change, from the local up,” and is a total numbers guy, says NY-19 “isn’t the sort of district Dems are meant to hold in a red wave.”

And MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki agrees. “This is not the result you would see in a strongly Republican climate.”

Kornacki: NBC News has just called it. Pat Ryan has been elected to Congress… This is a significant victory for Democrats nationally.. This is not the result you would see in a strongly Republican climate

Watch Video: https://twitter.com/i/status/1562284767982530560

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter adds: “It’s not going to be much of a red wave at all if Republicans can’t win in districts like this.”

Dave Wasserman, the U.S. House editor of the Cook Political Report calls it “a huge victory for Dems in a bellwether, Biden +1.5 district.”

Wasserman, who is highly-respected and a pure numbers guy Tuesday night said: “Lots of focus on Dems being more engaged/energetic post-Dobbs,” meaning after the Supreme Court’s ruling striking down Roe v. Wade, “which is undeniably true.”

“But to me, the GOP/Trump base appears less engaged than it was last November, which is just as big a part of the story.”

There’s more.

Sarah Palin is back, but she did not get good news Tuesday. Palin is running in a special election that was held August 16. They’re still counting the votes.

“The even better news for Dems tonight is that Mary Peltola’s (D) lead over Sarah Palin (R) in the #AKAL special election just stretched to over 13k votes, giving Peltola a better chance of winning when Nick Begich’s (R) second-choice votes are tabulated next week,” Wasserman writes.

Bottom line on that: At the moment, it looks like a Democratic former state lawmaker will beat Republican Sarah Palin in her home state of Alaska, where she served as governor and was the Republican Party’s vice presidential nominee.

If so, that would mean Democrats will have won five federal special elections in a row.

Finally, here’s Politico’s take:

“A New York special election seen as the last, best test of the electorate’s midterm leanings confirmed what Democrats hoped and Republicans feared: Predictions of a red wave may be overblown.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/24/5-takeaways-as-the-2022-primary-season-winds-down-00053445