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Author Topic: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?  (Read 20618 times)

Offline Marjan Rynkiewicz

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2021, 01:29:02 AM »
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The bullet most like struck JFK and Connally at z222.

The bullet does not have to strike the lapel to move the lapel. Put on a man’s dress coat or sports coat, make a strong ‘tap’ (pushing outward) one side of the coat, several inches below the lapel, and the whole side of the coat will bulge forward, including the lapel. If the tap is strong enough, I imagine the lapel could ‘flip’.

As an aside, I’m not certain the lapel ‘flipped’ upward. The detail in the Zapruder film is not strong enough to say, in my layman’s opinion. But surely the coat moved suddenly, as can most clearly be seen in frame z224.

Support for the hit at z222, and not a later hit on Connally in the z230’s, is:

* The sudden ‘blurring’ of the “Soon to be hit” Connally at z223, not seen in the unwounded occupants of the limousine, only him, as if he was suddenly wounded.
* The sudden movement of the “Soon to be hit” right side of Connally’s coat, reaching a maximum at z224.
* The sudden jerking up of JFK elbows upwards starting at z226, a pose we would hold, more or less, until the head shot at z312.
* The sudden jerking up of Connally’s “Soon to be hit” right wrist, also starting at z226, causing his right hand to suddenly rise 6 inches in the next few frames.
* The sudden movement of the camera at z227-z228, causing blurring of the whole frame, 5 to 6 frames after z222, and similar to the similar camera movement at z318, 6 frames after z312.

The support for a shot at z222 is overwhelming. There are too many coincidences if this theory is false.
I found that the jiggles/blurring do not tell us whether Z218 (my estimate) or Z222 (your estimate) are the magic bullet.
Re the jiggles/blurring at Z227 & Z228, i found nothing significant.
I had a close look at Z001 to Z486.
I rated each frame as 0 or 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 for blur – for horizontal blur[H] , & for vertical blur [V].
There was significant blur (ie rated 2 or 3 or 4) in the following frames (ie ignoring any 0 or 1).
Z003 H2 V0.
Z013 H4 V0.   Z014 H2 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z037 H3 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
ZO53 H3 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z058 H2 V0.
Z066 H4 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z068 H3 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z070 H2 V0.
Z082 H2 V1.
Z087 H3 V0.   Z088 H2 V0.   ZO89 H3 V1.   ZO90 H3 V1.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z104 H2 V0.
Z108 H2 V0.
Z132 H3 V0.   Probly due to the camera stopping.  This is the last frame of the first sequence.

………… Z133 H0 V0.  This is the first frame of the 2nd sequence.
Z134 H3 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special. [edit][a voluntary jiggle at Z134 suggests a shot at Z112]
......... Z135 H0 V0.
Z191 H2 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special. But could suggest a shot at Z169.
Z197 H3 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special. But could suggest a shot at Z175.
………… Z218 H0 V0.  This is where i reckon that JFK & Connally were hit (the magic bullet).
………… Z219 H0 V0.  Z220 H0 V0.  Z221 H0 V0. 
………… Z222 H1 V0.  This is where many reckon that JFK & Connally were hit.  If so then Oswald would have fired at Z219.8. The sound would reach Zapruder at Z224.3, ie there might be a shock jiggle at Z225, & a possible startle jiggle 5 frames later at Z230, & a possible voluntary reaction 18 frames later at Z243. But there is no significant jiggle of any kind until Z318.  Likewize there is no jiggle to support the magic bullet landing at my Z218.  The magic bullet simply did not result in a jiggle of any kind, ie zero shock jiggle, zero startle jiggle, zero voluntary jiggle. The jiggles do not tell us whether Z218 or Z222 are the magic bullet.
………… Z223 H0 V0.  Z224 H0 V0.   Z225 H0 V0.   Z226 H0 V0.   Z227 H0 V1.   Z228 H0 V0.   Z229 H0 V0.  Z230 H0 V0.
………… We have H0 V0 for the next 46 frames. The previous significant jiggle was at Z197. The next significant jiggle is at Z318.
………… Z313 H1 V0.   This frame shows the fatal headshot.
………… Z314 H0 V0.  This is where we could get a shock jiggle due to Hickey's AR15 shot at Z312.85.
......... Z315 H0 V0.
………… Z316 H0 V0.  This is where we could get a shock jiggle if Oswald fired a Carcano shot at Z310.80.
………… Z317 H0 V0.
Z318 H4 V4.   Z319 H3 V2. This is Zapruder's startle reaction to seeing the headshot at Z313 (delay=5 frames).
………… Z320 H1 V0.   Z321 H0 V0.   Z322 H0 V0.   Z323 H0 V0.   Z324 H1 V0.  Z325 H1 V0.  Z326 H0 V0.  Z327 H0 V0.  Z328 H0 V0.  Z329 H0 V0.  Z330 H0 V0.
Z331 H2 V1.   Z332 H2 V2. This is Zapruder's voluntary reaction  (delay=18 frames).
………… Z333 H0 V0.
Z360 H2 V0.   Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z363 H2 V3.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z385 H3 V3.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z417 H2 V1.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
The later frames up to the last frame Z486 are not worth rating.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2021, 02:37:35 AM by Marjan Rynkiewicz »

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2021, 01:29:02 AM »


Offline Marjan Rynkiewicz

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2021, 12:21:30 AM »
How can anyone not see this is the moment both men are shot through?
JFK is not vizible at Z222. JFK has already reacted by lifting his hand at Z223.
Startle takes they say 200 msec (3.66 frames) to 300 msec (5.49 frames).
In which case JFK was hit at Z219 or Z217. And my estimate of Z218 looks good.
However, a reaction to getting hit is not a startle, it is a different animal (in my opinion)(i dont think i redd it anywhere).
Getting hit sends a message to the brain. Then the message bounces in the brain, & we then get a reaction.
This might take less than 200 msec to 300 msec. In which case Z222 looks good.
With a startle the primary message duznt bounce, it is digested, then a new message is sent, this adds time.

Connally lifts his hand at Z226.
If this is a startle then this suggests that he was hit at Z222 to Z220.
However, i think that this lifting is a voluntary reaction, which would take 18 frames they say (if it is a surprize)(ie if not alert).
This suggests a hit at Z208 (Z226 minus 18 frames).
If alert then the hit could be at Z217 (Z226 minus 9 frames).

Hmmmm -- i am happy with my Z218.

However, Z218 or Z222, it duznt make a drastic difference to what happened in Dealey Plaza.
4 frames is 4/18.3 sec = 0.22 sec.

« Last Edit: September 04, 2021, 12:27:06 AM by Marjan Rynkiewicz »

Online Andrew Mason

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2021, 08:32:29 PM »
Connally's lapel flip at Z224.
The exiting slug missed the lapel by a mile. And in any case it was at Z218 plus or minus a frame or two.
What caused the lapel to flip?

Did the slug exit a bit side-on? In which case it shook the whole coat. And that shaking caused the lapel to stand up at Z218 -- which Zapruder didnt show koz it woz black on black. And then a gust flipped  the lapel further so  that Zapruder did show it.

What have i missed?
You missed reading all the evidence.  If you had, you would have realized that JFK is reacting to being struck on the first shot. And JBC is reacting to it as well.  If JBC has been struck it was not in the right armpit.JBC said he reacted to the first shot by turning around to check on JFK, which is what he does beginning a few frames later.

 The zfilm does not have enough resolution for anyone to see what is happening with the jacket, but it does not look at all like a lapel flip to me.  In z224 the jacket looks very much like it did in z222.

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2021, 08:32:29 PM »


Offline Marjan Rynkiewicz

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2021, 12:22:54 AM »
You missed reading all the evidence.  If you had, you would have realized that JFK is reacting to being struck on the first shot. And JBC is reacting to it as well.  If JBC has been struck it was not in the right armpit.JBC said he reacted to the first shot by turning around to check on JFK, which is what he does beginning a few frames later.

 The zfilm does not have enough resolution for anyone to see what is happening with the jacket, but it does not look at all like a lapel flip to me.  In z224 the jacket looks very much like it did in z222.
The lapel flip was cleared up in reply#7 as per below. Tests showed that the lapel could flip even tho the slug missed the actual lapel. And the flip/tests suggested a hit at Z222, but i still prefer my Z218. Anyhow, this was Oswalds shot-2, the magic bullet. Oswald's shot-1 ricocheted off the signal arm & the slug put a hole in the floor of the limo. And Oswald didnt fire a shot-3.

https://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/Lattimer.txt

One of the central assertions of the conspirati is that it would be
impossible for a single bullet to make as many wounds, hit as much
bone, and emerge as unscathed as CE399, the "magic bullet," is alleged
to have done. Harold Weisberg stated this view for the umpteenth time in
a letter to the Washington Post, January 11, 1992:

   It [is] a physical impossibility for this magic bullet [CE399]
   to have the imagined career indispensable to the lone-assassin
   "solution"...there is nothing like this career in science or
   mythology.

In "Conspiracy" (pp. 69-70), Anthony Summers repeats the assertion using
dissident pathologist Cyril Wecht for support:

   Above all, [Cyril Wecht] refuses to believe that a bullet could
   emerge almost intact after causing as much bone damage as was done
   to the Governor. To demonstrate this, Wecht points to the condition
   of Mannlicher-Carcano ammunition after firing into cotton wadding,
   a goat carcass--which sustained a broken rib--and through the wrist
   of a corpse. All the test bullets are visibly more damaged than the
   bullet alleged to have caused the wounds to the President and the
   Governor.  Wecht deplores the fact that the Assassinations
   Committee did not try to reproduce the "magic bullet" by performing
   similar tests and has challenged his colleagues to produce even
   *one* bullet that had emerged similarly undamaged.

Wecht's challenge has now been met by Dr. Lattimer. It has been proven
that a single bullet could make all the wounds and break all the bone
and emerge as relatively unscathed as CE399. Therefore, the long-held
assertion of the conspirati must now be completely discarded as evidence
of conspiracy. Lattimer's experiment is described in the following article:


[Excerpted from "Experimental Duplication of the Important Physical
Evidence of the Lapel Bulge of the Jacket Worn by Governor Connally
When Bullet 399 Went Through Him" by John K. Lattimer, M.D., et al,
in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons, May 1994. The
article describes an experiment which supplies the most complete
verification of the Single Bullet Theory yet performed.]

   The most important new piece of physical evidence in the
   analysis of the shooting of President Kennedy and Governor
   Connally has been the reaffirmation of the precise moment when
   bullet 399 [the so-called Magic Bullet] passed through the
   body of Governor Connally. This is graphically demonstrated
   in frame 224 of the Zapruder movie by the sudden forward
   bulge of the right lapel of the suit jacket of Governor
   Connally. This was clearly demonstrated by enhancement of
   the motion picture in the laboratories of Failure Analysis
   Inc., by Jeffrey Lotz in 1992.
   
   ...
   
   Even running the Zapruder movie at an ordinary "slow motion,"
   rate, one does not appreciate the sudden forward "bulge" of
   the lapel. It is necessary to run the movie very slowly,
   "freezing" each frame for a moment, before the flap of the
   lapel and the bulging of the jacket become obvious. Photo
   enhancement makes it easier to see, once you know when and
   where it occurs. Having established this fact, it then becomes
   apparent that the right arms of both men react immediately and
   simultaneously to the stimulus of the bullet having passed
   through them. The arms of Kennedy start an upward jerk into
   Thorburn's reflex position and the right hand of Connally,
   containing his big white Stetson hat, begins to snap up into
   view as his biceps contract and he jerks his painful forearm
   up into the view of Zapruder's camera.
   
   ...
   
   REENACTMENT OF THE WOUNDING OF GOVERNOR CONNALLY (FRAME 224).  As
   with any study of small photographs (movie frames), it is desirable
   to try to verify the findings by duplicating the situation as
   closely as possible, using the exact same type of rifle,
   cartridges, clothing, necks, ribs and radiuses, as at Dallas. In an
   attempt to verify and study this phenomenon further, a duplication
   of President Kennedy's size 16 neck and of Governor Connally's
   chest and jacket were tested to see exactly what would happen. A
   size 16 neck simulation was created, using fresh pork muscle, with
   the bone removed and the skin still in place. A rack was prepared
   to hold a rib cage at a distance of 24 inches from the Kennedy
   neck. A white dress shirt and tropical worsted jacket were placed
   over the rib cage on a special rack. A necktie was tied in place to
   simulate the clothing Governor Connally wore at the time of the
   shooting in Dallas. An array of radiuses (arm bones), encased in
   simulated forearms, was arranged in front of the right lapel of
   Governor Connally and a bullet trap was mounted beyond this array.
   Bullets of the Western Cartridge Company 6.5 millimeter ammunition
   of the same lots used by Lee Harvey Oswald were fired from a
   Carcano carbine exactly like the one used by Oswald. We knew from
   our previous experiments [as described in Lattimer's book "Kennedy
   and Lincoln"] that our test bullets would almost certainly "tumble"
   and would strike our "Governor Connally back" at about the point
   where he was actually struck. Our test bullet also struck a rib
   (just as in Governor Connally), removing 4.5 centimeters of the rib
   and exited in the area that would have been under his right nipple.
   The flying fragments of rib, marrow and soft tissue, accompanying
   the exiting, tumbling bullet, caused a large ragged hole in the
   shirt and the jacket lining and plastered them with fragments of
   rib and soft tissue, just as in the Governor's instance. The bullet
   exited under the right lapel, still tumbling, making a 3 centimeter
   transverse bullet wound in the cloth. It then struck one of the
   forearms arrayed in front of the jacket. The bullet was captured in
   a bullet trap beyond this point. A videotape of the motion of the
   jacket was obtained, along with frames from a rapid-firing 35
   millimeter camera. These revealed that the jacket bulged out about
   6 inches and then snapped back. The lapel flipped over against the
   neck area. The forward motion of the bulging jacket was completed
   in 3/30th of a second, whereupon the backward snap began on our
   static model. This was completed by 16/30th of a second from the
   shot. After this, the jacket and lapel were again back in normal
   position.
While the rib and soft tissue fragments caused a large
   ragged wound in the shirt, just as described in Governor Connally's
   shirt, the exit hole of the bullet in the front of the jacket was
   elongated to a length of 3 centimeters (almost exactly the length
   of the tumbling bullet). The large shirt wound and the bulge of the
   jacket were more related to the hail of fragments of rib and soft
   tissue. The bullet then struck one of the radiuses mounted in front
   of the jacket. The bullet from this experiment was flattened on one
   side and bent from hitting the rib and radius while traveling
   sideways, just as bullet 399 was flattened and bent for the same
   reasons (399 is definitely not "pristine"). Lead extruded from the
   rear of our bullet as with bullet 399. The radius was fractured and
   tiny fragments of lead were left adherent to the periosteum,
   exactly as in Governor Connally. One of the most dependable
   features of this Kennedy and Connally mockup was the characteristic
   manner in which these Carcano bullets turned sideways (tumbled)
   after exiting the neck of Kennedy.
   
   THE BULLET MUST TRAVERSE THE NECK OF JOHN F. KENNEDY FIRST OR NO
   JACKET BULGE OCCURS. In an effort to determine what would happen if
   the bullet did *not* go through the neck of Kennedy first, but hit
   Connally primarily, we fired a bullet through our Connally jacket
   and thorax preparation without running it through the model of
   Kennedy's neck first, so it did not tumble. The jacket did *not*
   bulge out and the lapel did *not* turn over. The shirt collar
   flipped briefly. With the bullet going straight ahead, wounds to
   the rib, shirt and jacket were punctate and the rib fragments
   were not enough to bulge out the front of the jacket. This made
   it seem even more likely that bullet 399 had gone through the
   neck of President Kennedy first, turned sideways and caused the
   very obvious jacket and lapel distortions, which we have
   recorded herein and which occur in frame 224. If the bullet did
   *not* go through the neck of Kennedy first, the jacket bulge and
   lapel flap did *not* occur.
   
   SUMMARY
   
   By duplicating the wound to the neck of President Kennedy, which
   caused bullet 399 to turn sideways, and having it *then* hit a
   Connally-type rib cage with shirt and jacket, we reproduced the
   right-sided bulge of the jacket worn by Connally, with lapel
   eversion, which is so significant in frame 224. The extensive
   damage to his shirtfront was from the hail of rib fragments and
   soft tissue, exactly as described with his own shirt. Our tumbling
   bullet then went on to fracture a radius and be recovered intact
   except that it was somewhat flattened and bent and had lead
   extruded from the rear, as did bullet 399. Fragments of this lead
   were scraped off on the ragged bone-ends of some of our fractured
   radiuses, just as with Governor Connally's radius. It is believed
   that this duplication of the jacket and lapel bulge of Governor
   Connally, which occurred dependably, when we reproduced the
   circumstances at Dallas, confirmed this very important detail in
   this technical demonstration of the findings in the shooting of
   President Kennedy and Governor Connally.
   
   The bulge and the lapel eversion of the jacket worn by Governor
   Connally, starting in Zapruder frame 224, does indeed establish,
   beyond any shadow of a doubt, the exact moment when bullet 399 went
   through him. The right arms of both men were seen to react
   simultaneously, immediately thereafter. It also permits us to
   establish that there was plenty of time (three and one-half
   seconds) between the first two shots (frames 160 to 224) and even
   more time (five seconds) between the last two shots (frames 224 to
   313), for Oswald to reload, reacquire the target (the head of
   President Kennedy) plus two full seconds to lock onto it. If the
   bullet does not traverse the neck of President Kennedy, it does not
   cause Governor Connally's jacket and lapel to bulge. The lapel
   bulge is a very important bit of actual physical evidence in
   establishing the fact that one bullet hit both men and that Oswald
   had plenty of time to hit the President, first in the neck and then
   in the head. These experiments confirm the mechanism of the lapel
   bulge and the behavior of the bullet.

Online Dan O'meara

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2021, 01:29:08 AM »
You missed reading all the evidence.  If you had, you would have realized that JFK is reacting to being struck on the first shot. And JBC is reacting to it as well.  If JBC has been struck it was not in the right armpit.JBC said he reacted to the first shot by turning around to check on JFK, which is what he does beginning a few frames later.

 The zfilm does not have enough resolution for anyone to see what is happening with the jacket, but it does not look at all like a lapel flip to me.  In z224 the jacket looks very much like it did in z222.

A close up of the movement of the jacket.



Considering the unbelievably short space of time these two frames represent (55 milliseconds - almost twice as quick as the blink of an eye) it is a really significant movement.
The unbelievably rapid movement of the jacket is caused by a bullet passing through JBC's torso and exiting his chest.
We know for a fact the bullet passed through the right side of the jacket, the same side of the jacket being 'blown out' in the frames above.
Wind would not cause such a rapid movement and we can see in the bottom right hand corner of the frames below the flag on the front of the limo is limp, demonstrating there was no significant wind blowing on that side of the limo at that moment.
The only logical explanation of the jacket's rapid movement is the gunshot that passes through both men.

« Last Edit: September 07, 2021, 01:31:00 AM by Dan O'meara »

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2021, 01:29:08 AM »


Online Andrew Mason

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2021, 03:46:55 AM »
A close up of the movement of the jacket.



Considering the unbelievably short space of time these two frames represent (55 milliseconds - almost twice as quick as the blink of an eye) it is a really significant movement.
The unbelievably rapid movement of the jacket is caused by a bullet passing through JBC's torso and exiting his chest.
We know for a fact the bullet passed through the right side of the jacket, the same side of the jacket being 'blown out' in the frames above.
Wind would not cause such a rapid movement and we can see in the bottom right hand corner of the frames below the flag on the front of the limo is limp, demonstrating there was no significant wind blowing on that side of the limo at that moment.
The only logical explanation of the jacket's rapid movement is the gunshot that passes through both men.


It is not a matter of  "logic". It is a matter of evidence.  The evidence is that JFK and JBC are reacting at the same time although it does appear that JFK began reacting before he appears from behind the sign. But the evidence is also that JFK reacted to being hit on the first shot while JBC reacted to hearing it and fearing an assassination was unfolding.  The evidence also is that the last two shots were close together with the second shot sounding after the mid point between 1 and 3.

As far as the supposed lapel flip is concerned, how do you explain the similar appearance of the jacket in z222 and z224?  On what basis can you eliminate movement of the right arm across his front as the cause of the jacket movement?  His right arm is certainly moving there.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2021, 03:51:34 AM by Andrew Mason »

Online Dan O'meara

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2021, 02:49:23 PM »
It is not a matter of  "logic". It is a matter of evidence.  The evidence is that JFK and JBC are reacting at the same time although it does appear that JFK began reacting before he appears from behind the sign. But the evidence is also that JFK reacted to being hit on the first shot while JBC reacted to hearing it and fearing an assassination was unfolding.  The evidence also is that the last two shots were close together with the second shot sounding after the mid point between 1 and 3.

As far as the supposed lapel flip is concerned, how do you explain the similar appearance of the jacket in z222 and z224?  On what basis can you eliminate movement of the right arm across his front as the cause of the jacket movement?  His right arm is certainly moving there.

"It is not a matter of  "logic". It is a matter of evidence."

I like the way you've separated "logic" and "evidence", it is something represented in a lot of your arguments.
In my post I have applied logic to a very powerful piece of evidence, actual video footage of the moment JBC is shot through the chest.
This piece of evidence is, in my opinion, far more significant than witness testimony which can be totally unreliable. It is this contradictory and unreliable aspect of witness testimony that many "researchers" use to prop up their treasured arguments, no matter how wild.
Let's have a look at the close up again:



Because you will not relinquish your debunked shot at z271 you cannot have a shot passing through JBC at this point. The movement of his jacket is unbelievably rapid and significant. The radical difference between the two jacket positions occurs in 55 milliseconds - this is the point - any explanation must take into account the profound rapidity of the jacket which is why 'the wind' explanation fails.
So how can you explain this movement:

"On what basis can you eliminate movement of the right arm across his front as the cause of the jacket movement?  His right arm is certainly moving there."

JBC's right arm is not moving across his front at this moment, that is something you've invented in a desperate attempt to explain the incredibly rapid movement of JBC's jacket.
The frame below is z223:

how to divide workouts

This is how JBC is sat as the limo passes behind the Stemmons sign. There is no movement of his arm, no rapid movement and no movement across his front.
At z225 JBC's right arm starts to suddenly thrash around - a result of being shot and not, as you would have us believe, because he was concerned for the President.

You can twist witness evidence all you want but you cannot explain away the evidence you can see with your own eyes in this instance.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2021, 02:52:45 PM by Dan O'meara »

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2021, 02:49:23 PM »


Online Andrew Mason

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Re: The lapel flip -- what did i miss?
« Reply #15 on: September 07, 2021, 07:06:27 PM »
"It is not a matter of  "logic". It is a matter of evidence."

I like the way you've separated "logic" and "evidence", it is something represented in a lot of your arguments.
It is a matter of looking at all the evidence. Logic is based on premises.  Premises have to be based on ALL the evidence. Not just one piece of evidence and someone's interpretation of it that does not fit the rest of the evidence. That is all I am saying.  Your premises do not fit the evidence.

Quote
Because you will not relinquish your debunked shot at z271 you cannot have a shot passing through JBC at this point. The movement of his jacket is unbelievably rapid and significant. The radical difference between the two jacket positions occurs in 55 milliseconds - this is the point - any explanation must take into account the profound rapidity of the jacket which is why 'the wind' explanation fails.
So how can you explain this movement:

"On what basis can you eliminate movement of the right arm across his front as the cause of the jacket movement?  His right arm is certainly moving there."

JBC's right arm is not moving across his front at this moment, that is something you've invented in a desperate attempt to explain the incredibly rapid movement of JBC's jacket.
The frame below is z223:
The arm most certainly is moving. From z222 to z223 it drops to the right and then moves continuously across his body.  From z222 to z223, the amount of jacket covering the shirt decreases, from z223 to z224 it increases.   At z222 we see the hand, at z223 it disappears below the top of the door, in z224 we still don't see it, in z225 we see the hand again and in z226 we can see the hat (blurry but confirmed as the hat in z230):


If a bullet made the jacket move from z223 to z224, how do you explain the change from z222 to z223?


It appears that the jacket lapel is covering more of his shirt in z222 than in z223 and this appears to occur at the same time as his right hand drops from view.  So if the jacket can move from covering the shirt to exposing the shirt in one frame due to the movement of the hand, logic would tell you that that it could do the reverse in one frame due to the movement of the hand.