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Author Topic: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.  (Read 11007 times)

Online Andrew Mason

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #110 on: August 14, 2018, 02:11:40 PM »
You don't know the difference.  An assumption is still an assumption, whether you think it's justified or not.
So, in your world, if a conclusion is based on evidence that demonstrates a high probability that the conclusion is correct, that conclusion is still an assumption? So when is a conclusion based on evidence not an assumption?

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Who said he was?
Who's claiming that there was an elaborate conspiracy to frame Oswald and to execute that plan so flawlessly that it would withstand 55 years of scrutiny without anyone cracking?  I asked you how you knew CE399 was the bullet found at Parkland.
What other reasonable conclusion is there? Either CE399 was the bullet found at Parkland or it was not. If it was not, then the FBI's evidence that it was from Parkland was made up.  The bullet fired from the C2766 rifle could not have been "accidentally" made up and then "accidentally" thought to have originated from being found at Parkland and the real bullet found by Tomlinson then misplaced and never found. Why would the FBI fabricate evidence unless they were part of some plan to frame Oswald? What other explanation do you offer if CE399 was not found at Parkland?

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Where does this assumption come from?  Did you just make it up?
It has been long established in forensic science that finger and palm prints are highly variable between individuals.  I didn't say that a conclusive match would be made - just that it would be improbable for some other random partial palm print to have no characteristics that would distinguish it from Oswald's.

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Here's where you say, "you're right, that's not something Klein's stamped on the envelope to indicate that the order had been processed.  Silly me.
You're right. That is not something stamped on the envelope. It is the coupon with Oswald's handwriting clipped to the envelope and then put on microfilm by Klein's, along with the shipping order prepared by Klein's, to record the fact that C2766 was used to fill the order and the date that it was was processed. Silly me.

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I don't want to spread misinformation.  Also, I have no clue where I got the idea that Marina said Lee bought a gun through the mail or why I thought the package was picked up 5 days later.  Sorry for wasting everybody's time spreading all this nonsense!"
Marina identified Oswald's handwriting on the coupon for the gun ordered and shipped from Seaport Traders (CE135) to Oswald's PO Box 2915.  That was for the handgun.  According to Klein's records, Oswald's order for the rifle was postmarked March 12.  It was received March 13 and processed by Klein's and shipped on March 20. According to the post office, it would have taken a day to travel to Dallas by train so the earliest it physically arrived in the Dallas post office would be late on March 21. A card would have been placed in Oswald's box the next day, March 22 at the earliest, which was a Friday. March 25 was the following Monday. It is possible that he picked it up March 22  - or the 23rd if the post office was open Saturday.  In any event, he would likely would have picked it up by Monday, March 25. Sorry for wasting your time trying to persuade you that this is a reasonable conclusion to be drawn from this evidence.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2018, 09:54:26 PM by Andrew Mason »

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #110 on: August 14, 2018, 02:11:40 PM »


Offline John Iacoletti

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #111 on: August 14, 2018, 11:20:20 PM »
So, in your world, if a conclusion is based on evidence that demonstrates a high probability that the conclusion is correct, that conclusion is still an assumption? So when is a conclusion based on evidence not an assumption?

Well, setting aside that you haven't demonstrated that your conclusions have a "high probability" of being correct, if your conclusion depends on anything that hasn't been proven, then it's an assumption.

assumption
1. a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof.

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What other reasonable conclusion is there? Either CE399 was the bullet found at Parkland or it was not. If it was not, then the FBI's evidence that it was from Parkland was made up.

What FBI evidence?  Somebody handed Robert Frazier a bullet and said "hey, this was found at Parkland".

As the story goes, Tomlinson found a bullet on an unrelated stretcher at Parkland.  He gave it to O.P. Wright, his personnel officer, who gave it to Richard Johnsen of the Secret Service.  Either Johnsen or SS agent Gerald Behn (their stories differ) then gave it to James Rowley of the Secret Service, who gave it to FBI agent Elmer Lee Todd, who gave it to FBI agent Robert Frazier for analysis.

None of these transfers were documented with any paper trail or signed for in any way.  None of these people initialed the object except for Todd and Frazier.  None of these people except Todd and Frazier could positively identify CE 399 as the same bullet that they handled.  O.P. Wright said the bullet he saw had a pointed tip.  An elevator repairman named Nathan Pool told the HSCA that he actually found the stretcher bullet (which he also described as pointed) and gave it to Tomlinson.  Also, there's the story that Secret Service agent Sam Kinney supposedly told his friend Gary Loucks that he found a bullet in the limo and set it on a stretcher at Parkland.

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It has been long established in forensic science that finger and palm prints are highly variable between individuals.  I didn't say that a conclusive match would be made - just that it would be improbable for some other random partial palm print to have no characteristics that would distinguish it from Oswald's.

Doesn't that depend on the size of the partial and how many points of identity there are?  Besides, since the circumstances of how this print was allegedly lifted and delivered to the FBI are so dodgy, there's really no way to know if it was ever actually on the C2766 rifle or not.

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That is not something stamped on the envelope. It is the coupon with Oswald's handwriting

Subjective and unscientific handwriting "analysis" of 2 block letters on a photo of a microfilm image of a 2 inch order coupon.

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clipped to the envelope and then put on microfilm by Klein's, along with the shipping order prepared by Klein's, to record the fact that the order was processed as written.

Processed, yes.  Shipped?  Who knows?  Picked up by Oswald?  Who knows?

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Marina identified Oswald's handwriting on the coupon for the gun ordered and shipped from Seaport Traders (CE135) to Oswald's PO Box 2915.

Here we go again.  When did Marina identify Oswald's handwriting?

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  According to Klein's records, Oswald's order was shipped on March 20.

Again, Klein's records say nothing of the kind.

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A card would have been place in Oswald's box a day later, March 22 which was a Friday. March 25 was the following Monday. It is possible that he picked it up March 22 but more likely March 25.

Great.  Where's the card?  And how do you know how often that box was checked and by whom?

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Sorry for wasting your time trying to persuade you that this is a reasonable conclusion to be drawn from this evidence.

That's not what I said was wasting time.  What's wasting time is all the misinformation you're propagating that requires correction, like the "Klein's stamp" on the envelope or Marina's supposed handwriting identification.

But your "reasonable conclusion" is that Oswald picked up a rifle from the post office on March 22 or March 25 when there is absolutely ZERO evidence that he did.  ZERO.

And besides, since the FBI was monitoring his mail at this time, wouldn't they have known about this rifle package from Klein's if one was ever actually shipped?

Online Andrew Mason

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #112 on: August 15, 2018, 02:37:13 PM »
Well, setting aside that you haven't demonstrated that your conclusions have a "high probability" of being correct, if your conclusion depends on anything that hasn't been proven, then it's an assumption.
So when my deck is all wet in the morning, there is not a high probability that it rained?  What alternate universe do you live in?

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What FBI evidence?  Somebody handed Robert Frazier a bullet and said "hey, this was found at Parkland".

As the story goes, Tomlinson found a bullet on an unrelated stretcher at Parkland.  He gave it to O.P. Wright, his personnel officer, who gave it to Richard Johnsen of the Secret Service.  Either Johnsen or SS agent Gerald Behn (their stories differ) then gave it to James Rowley of the Secret Service, who gave it to FBI agent Elmer Lee Todd, who gave it to FBI agent Robert Frazier for analysis.

None of these transfers were documented with any paper trail or signed for in any way.  None of these people initialed the object except for Todd and Frazier.  None of these people except Todd and Frazier could positively identify CE 399 as the same bullet that they handled.
So you really are saying that they made all those transfers up?

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Doesn't that depend on the size of the partial and how many points of identity there are?  Besides, since the circumstances of how this print was allegedly lifted and delivered to the FBI are so dodgy, there's really no way to know if it was ever actually on the C2766 rifle or not.
The only thing that depends on the size of the print and the number of points identified is the level of confidence. One point of difference is an exclusion.  It was on the rifle as examined by an officer who had expertise in comparing prints.  There were no points that excluded Oswald. While that may not be sufficient to make a positive match, it is consistent with it being Oswald's. That, in light of the rest of the evidence (including the evidence that show was the gun shipped to Oswald's mail box, that he took a long package to work) is probative of Oswald having recently handled the rifle.

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Subjective and unscientific handwriting "analysis" of 2 block letters on a photo of a microfilm image of a 2 inch order coupon.

Processed, yes.  Shipped?  Who knows?  Picked up by Oswald?  Who knows?
We know because we can see how improbable it is that all this evidence, if completely false, would fit together randomly by accident.

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Here we go again.  When did Marina identify Oswald's handwriting?
During her WC testimony.

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Again, Klein's records say nothing of the kind.

Great.  Where's the card?  And how do you know how often that box was checked and by whom?
Why would Oswald keep the card?  Does that mean it never existed?

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But your "reasonable conclusion" is that Oswald picked up a rifle from the post office on March 22 or March 25 when there is absolutely ZERO evidence that he did.  ZERO.
Wrong. He was photographed with an identical rifle a few days later. I can connect those dots quite easily. I am sorry you can't.


Offline John Iacoletti

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #113 on: August 15, 2018, 05:39:51 PM »
So when my deck is all wet in the morning, there is not a high probability that it rained?  What alternate universe do you live in?

If the only information you have is that your deck is wet, then no.  You would have no basis for your "high probability" declaration.

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So you really are saying that they made all those transfers up?

No.  Where did you get that idea?  I'm asking you how you know the bullet that Todd handed Frazier is the same bullet that Tomlinson found.

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The only thing that depends on the size of the print and the number of points identified is the level of confidence. One point of difference is an exclusion.

Granted.  But one point of similarity is an "unable to identify".

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  It was on the rifle as examined by an officer who had expertise in comparing prints.

When did Carl Day ever attempt to match the print that he "found"?  All he did was send an index card to Washington several days later with a print on it and claim that he "didn't have time" to photograph it or cover it with cellophane like he did with the other prints, and that he "forgot" to give it to, or even to mention it to the FBI agent he gave all the evidence to.

It boggles my mind that you don't find any of that to be the slightest bit suspicious.

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  There were no points that excluded Oswald. While that may not be sufficient to make a positive match, it is consistent with it being Oswald's.

That's an overstatement.  Day just said that the unidentifiable trigger guard prints "appeared to be the right middle and right ring finger of Harvey Lee Oswald, Lee Harvey Oswald".  He didn't say what he based that impression on.

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That, in light of the rest of the evidence (including the evidence that show was the gun shipped to Oswald's mail box,

For the umpteenth time, there is no evidence that shows the gun was shipped anywhere.

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that he took a long package to work) is probative of Oswald having recently handled the rifle.

How does holding a package tell you anything about a rifle?

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We know because we can see how improbable it is that all this evidence, if completely false, would fit together randomly by accident.

Who's "we"?  The only thing that makes this evidence "fit together" is the assumptions you make in order to make it fit.  And please, dispense with your strawman that anyone thinks all the evidence (such as it is) is false.  The evidence is what it is.  It's the conclusions you make from the evidence that either are or are not justified.

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During her WC testimony.

Please quote Marina ever saying anything in her WC testimony about identifying Oswald's handwriting on the Seaport Traders coupon.

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Why would Oswald keep the card?  Does that mean it never existed?

What is your evidence that there ever was such a card?

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Wrong. He was photographed with an identical rifle a few days later. I can connect those dots quite easily. I am sorry you can't.

You have no basis for your assumption that the rifle in the photo is "identical".  You also don't know that the photo was taken "a few days later".  You're connecting dots that you don't even have.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2018, 05:42:38 PM by John Iacoletti »

Online Andrew Mason

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #114 on: August 16, 2018, 01:24:06 AM »
If the only information you have is that your deck is wet, then no.  You would have no basis for your "high probability" declaration.
I cannot ever recall my deck being wet from some other source other than rain.  So when it is wet, there is a high probability that it rained.  If you do not see that as a reasonable conclusion, I want you on my next jury.

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No.  Where did you get that idea?  I'm asking you how you know the bullet that Todd handed Frazier is the same bullet that Tomlinson found.
Because the evidence of how it got to Frazier from Parkland satisfies me, in the absence of conspiracy evidence, that that is how it got from Parkland to Frazier.

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Granted.  But one point of similarity is an "unable to identify".

When did Carl Day ever attempt to match the print that he "found"?  All he did was send an index card to Washington several days later with a print on it and claim that he "didn't have time" to photograph it or cover it with cellophane like he did with the other prints, and that he "forgot" to give it to, or even to mention it to the FBI agent he gave all the evidence to.

It boggles my mind that you don't find any of that to be the slightest bit suspicious.


That's an overstatement.  Day just said that the unidentifiable trigger guard prints "appeared to be the right middle and right ring finger of Harvey Lee Oswald, Lee Harvey Oswald".  He didn't say what he based that impression on.
It is only suspicious if Day was part of a plan to frame Oswald.

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For the umpteenth time, there is no evidence that shows the gun was shipped anywhere.
Ok. You can't connect the dots. I can.  MC with s/n C2766 is found on the 6th floor.  It is indistinguishable from the gun held by Oswald that Marina identifies as Oswald's in the backyard photos. In those photos Oswald holds two communist newspapers that were determined to be issues dated March 11 and March 24, 1963 that were mailed out March 7 and March 21 respectively.  Records from Klein's show that C2766 was used to fill a fully paid order from Oswald a.k.a. A. Hidell showing a shipping address of Oswald's Dallas post box no. 2915. The order was recorded by Klein's as having been received March 13, 1963 and processed on March 20.  Oswald was arrested after a brief struggle in the Texas Theater carrying a selective service card with his photo and the name "Alek James Hidell". That is enough to explain how Oswald came to own the C2766 rifle.   If you refuse to draw that conclusion, it must be because you think someone made all that evidence fit together.  If you really think that, we are wasting out time trying to carry the discussion much further.  BTW, each piece of evidence will rarely be proven beyond a reasonable doubt by itself.  The conclusion of guilt beyond a reasonable doubt comes from examination of all the evidence.

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How does holding a package tell you anything about a rifle?

Who's "we"?  The only thing that makes this evidence "fit together" is the assumptions you make in order to make it fit.  And please, dispense with your strawman that anyone thinks all the evidence (such as it is) is false.  The evidence is what it is.  It's the conclusions you make from the evidence that either are or are not justified.
In order for Oswald's rifle to get to the TSBD it had to have been brought there from somewhere else.  If he hadn't brought anything to work you would be arguing that was in favour of Oswald, which it would be.  But it works both ways: the evidence that he carried a long object to work that morning is another piece of evidence against Oswald.

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Please quote Marina ever saying anything in her WC testimony about identifying Oswald's handwriting on the Seaport Traders coupon.
1 H 118:
Mr. THORNE. Exhibit No. 135 purports to be a clipping from a newspaper. It is a clipping of an advertisement, a mail coupon.
Mrs. OSWALD. I don’t know what that is.
Mr. RANKIN. Do you recognize the handwriting on it?
Mrs. OSWALD. Lee’s handwriting.
Mr. RANKIN. I offer in evidence Exhibit 135

Here is the mail coupon CE135

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What is your evidence that there ever was such a card?
Because that was the evidence of the post office's system that post office employees were instructed to follow and there is no evidence that the system was not followed.  There is no evidence that the order was cancelled.

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You have no basis for your assumption that the rifle in the photo is "identical".  You also don't know that the photo was taken "a few days later".  You're connecting dots that you don't even have.
Ok. It is indistinguishable from C2766. Does that make you feel better?
« Last Edit: August 17, 2018, 12:38:05 AM by Andrew Mason »

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #114 on: August 16, 2018, 01:24:06 AM »


Offline John Mytton

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #115 on: August 16, 2018, 02:46:17 AM »

Subjective and unscientific handwriting "analysis" of 2 block letters on a photo of a microfilm image of a 2 inch order coupon.


-sigh-



Mr. EISENBERG. You can refer to your photographs.
Mr. CADIGAN. The enlarged photograph, Cadigan Exhibit No. 3-A, contains both handwriting and hand printing which was compared with the known standards, Cadigan Exhibits Nos. 4 through 10. I compared both the handwriting and the hand printing to determine whether or not the same combination of individual handwriting characteristics was present in both the questioned and the known documents. I found many characteristics, some of which I would point out.
On the order blank, in the "A. Hidell" and in the wording "Dallas Texas" which constitutes a part of the return address, the letter "A" in Cadigan Exhibit No. 3 is made in the same manner as the capital letter "A" on Cadigan Exhibit No. 10. The letter is formed with a short straight stroke beginning about halfway up the left side. The top of it is peaked or pointed. The right side is straight, and is shorter than the initial stroke. The capital letter "D" in Dallas is characterized by a staff or downstroke slanting at about a 30° angle. The lower loop in some instances is closed. In the word "Dallas" the loop is closed, and the body of the letter ends in a rounded loop formation. The same characteristic I found in Cadigan Exhibits Nos. 4, 5, and 6 as well as other exhibits. The word "Texas" on Cadigan Exhibit No. 3-A is characterized with the letter "x" made in an unusual manner in that the writer, after completing the body of the letter, makes an abrupt change of motion to the following letter "a." This same characteristic I observed in the known standard on Cadigan Exhibits Nos. 6, 9, and 4.
In the address portion of the envelope, Cadigan Exhibit No. 3-A, appears the word "Dept." I noticed here, again, the same formation of the capital "D." In addition, the entire word "Dept" appears in the known standards on Cadigan Exhibits Nos. 5, 6, and 7. The characteristics I would point out here are in the letter "p" in Cadigan Exhibit No. 3, where the letter is made with a relatively long narrow staff, and the body of the letter is a rounded shape which projects above the staff. The letter "t" ends abruptly in a downstroke. In the hand-printing appearing in the exhibit marked Cadigan Exhibit No. 3--A, the wording "Dallas, Texas" contains a number of the same characteristics as Cadigan Exhibit No. 5, where the same wording appears, and on Cadigan Exhibits Nos. 7 and 8. The writer uses a script-type "D," and prints the other letters in the word "Dallas." The "A " again is made in a similar way to the "A" in "A. Hidell," with a beginning of the downstroke approximately three-quarters of the way up the left side of the stroke. The letter is relatively narrow, and the right-hand side of the letter is straight. In the double "L" combinations there is a curve in the lower portion of the letter. The "S" has a flat top, slanting at approximately a 30-degree angle. In the word "Texas" in Cadigan Exhibit No. 3-A the writer has used a small "e" following the letter "T." The same characteristics will be noted on Cadigan Exhibits Nos. 5, 7, and 8.
Additionally, I noted that in addition to the shape of the letters themselves, the relative heights of the letters, the spacing between the letters, the slant of the letters in both the know and questioned documents are the same.
On Cadigan Exhibit No. 3-A, in the portion for address, appears the notation "P.O. Box 2915," and this same wording appears on Cadigan Exhibit No. 5, and on No. 7 and No. 8 except for the "P.O." portion. Here, again, I observed the same formation of the individual letters; the spacing, the style, the slant of the writings in both questioned and known were observed to be the same.
The tail of the "5" is made with a relatively long stroke and the same characteristic appears in the known standards. In the hand printed name "A. Hidell," on Cadigan Exhibit No. 3-A, another characteristic I noted was the very small-sized "i" in the name "Hidell." The writer makes this letter very short in contrast to the other letters in the name. This same characteristic I observed on Cadigan Exhibit No. 10, the passport application. With reference to the "1" dot on Cadigan Exhibit No. 3 in the name "Hidell," in the return portion, the dot is relatively high and between the body of the letter and the following letter "d." In the portion of the word "Chicago"---of the name "Chicago"--in the address portion on Cadigan Exhibit No. 3, the "i" dot is between the "o" and the "g" in "Chicago" and is well above the line of writing. On Cadigan Exhibit No. 4 I observed the same displacement of the "i" dot. In some instances, it is slightly to the right of the body of the letter, as in the word "citizenship" in the sixth line from the bottom, whereas in the word "direct" in the ninth line from the bottom the "i" dot is displaced one and a half letters to the right.
Based upon the combination of these individual characteristics which I have pointed out, as well as others, I reached the opinion that the handwriting and handprinting on Cadigan Exhibit No. 3-A were written by Lee Harvey Oswald, the writer of the known standards, Cadigan Exhibits Nos. 4 through 10.














JohnM
« Last Edit: August 16, 2018, 08:28:08 AM by John Mytton »

Offline John Iacoletti

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #116 on: August 16, 2018, 08:56:57 PM »
-sigh-

Sigh, indeed.  Who filled out that envelope is irrelevant.  There's nothing to tie that envelope with that particular order coupon or any particular Klein's item.

Offline John Mytton

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #117 on: August 16, 2018, 09:42:11 PM »
Sigh, indeed.  Who filled out that envelope is irrelevant.  There's nothing to tie that envelope with that particular order coupon or any particular Klein's item.

Double -sigh-

For a start, attempting to isolate a single piece of Kleins evidence is kinda silly and rather pointless but hey being dishonest is quickly becoming your trademark..

Secondly, the coupon and the envelope both have the same name and return address which rules out a clerical mix up.



Thirdly, the envelope is directed to Dept358 and the coupon has an amount written of $19.95 and guess what the only item for $19.95 in the Kleins ad is for,... an Italian Carcano. Da Dahh!





JohnM
« Last Edit: August 16, 2018, 10:22:55 PM by John Mytton »

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #117 on: August 16, 2018, 09:42:11 PM »


Offline John Iacoletti

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #118 on: August 16, 2018, 11:54:38 PM »
Double -sigh-

For a start, attempting to isolate a single piece of Kleins evidence is kinda silly and rather pointless but hey being dishonest is quickly becoming your trademark..

Says the guy who was caught doing at least 3 dishonest things just today.

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Secondly, the coupon and the envelope both have the same name and return address which rules out a clerical mix up.

Who said there was a clerical mixup?  I said it's irrelevant who filled out the envelope as there is no way to know that this coupon actually arrived in this envelope.

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Thirdly, the envelope is directed to Dept358 and the coupon has an amount written of $19.95 and guess what the only item for $19.95 in the Kleins ad is for,... an Italian Carcano. Da Dahh!

You mean the 36" Italian Carbine?  I don't see the word "Carcano" there.  Too bad they couldn't find a money order for $19.95 though, huh?

Offline John Mytton

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Re: A scientific look at the Single Bullet Theory.
« Reply #119 on: August 17, 2018, 12:18:57 AM »
Says the guy who was caught doing at least 3 dishonest things just today.

Who said there was a clerical mixup?  I said it's irrelevant who filled out the envelope as there is no way to know that this coupon actually arrived in this envelope.


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Says the guy who was caught doing at least 3 dishonest things just today.

Yet another Iacoletti deception.

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Who said there was a clerical mixup?  I said it's irrelevant who filled out the envelope as there is no way to know that this coupon actually arrived in this envelope.

This doesn't even make sense, the exact coupon amount for an Italian Carcano in the name of Hidell with Oswald's PO box is directly linked to the Envelope in the name of Hidell with Oswald's PO box number, the dept number on the Envelope specifically references the Kleins ad with an Italian Carcano which costs 19.95, precisely the same as the coupon.

Btw I understand your reluctance to insinuate that this is just more "faked" evidence because you don't want to add too many more conspirators to your massive cast. LMAO!

JohnM