Why the first shot missed

[Zeon Mason]

The pipes could be the issue if one of them
had hot water flowing thru it.

The SE window gunmans exact firing stance is unclear to me still (  crazy after all these years heh)

Maybe the gunman was sitting on the box at first and then burned himself as he fired his first shot , at approx z223. ?

But the shooters reaction from the pipe burn perhaps had  only a slight effect on his aim
so that the 223 shot aimed at the head , instead hit JFK in the back. So there was no missed 1st shot, just a slightly off target shot that still hit the body of JFK.

After this pipe burn (or obstruction)of the pipe , did the gunman take up some other kind of firing stance before he fired off 2 more shots rapidly together about 4 secs later?

If it were not for Harold Normans description of hearing the clack clack noise which suggests a bolt action rifle, then the 4 sec spacing of all 3 shots that Norman also  demonstrates , would indicate that a semi auto rifle was more probable than a bolt action rifle to be able to fire 3 shots rapidly, especially the last 2 which most witness heard “back to back”.

 An obstruction causing the gunman to miss would fit nicely with a theory of semi auto rifle being used and the gunman firing 3 rapid shots. The gunman , having had his aimed head shot at Z220 thrown off from either a pipe or other obstruction when he pulled the trigger at Z222 ,  adjusted his firing position slightly afterwards, while still tracking the target with his good quality scope mounted correctly on his good quality semi auto rifle.

He fired about 4.8 secs after his missed head shot at Z223 and fired 2 shots rapidly at Z313.

The 2nd shot was the head shot at Z313, followed immediately by the 3rd shot a split sec after Z313, which because of “muzzle rise” from  firing rapidly, caused that shot to fly over JFKs head, and over to the curb near to Tague (by the Triple underpass)

A projectile fired from a semi auto rifle with different composition of metals than the MC rifle 6.5mm bullet, thus may explain the anomaly of metallic element analyzed from the curb not matching the typical 6.5 mm bullet from the MC rifle (in Tom Aleya film lifted from the 6th floor by Lt. Day) and alleged to be the rifle fired by the SW gunman by the WC.

It may also explain CE 399 MC bullet  having been substituted for a bullet that came from Gov Connallys leg, ( or replacing the one found on a stretcher) which bullet was of different caliber than 6.5 mm or was not  a type which could have been fired by an MC rifle even if it were 6.5 mm, because of cartridge size.

[Charles Collins]

The pipes could be the issue if one of them
had hot water flowing thru it.

The SE window gunmans exact firing stance is unclear to me still (  crazy after all these years heh)

Maybe the gunman was sitting on the box at first and then burned himself as he fired his first shot , at approx z223. ?

But the shooters reaction from the pipe burn perhaps had  only a slight effect on his aim
so that the 223 shot aimed at the head , instead hit JFK in the back. So there was no missed 1st shot, just a slightly off target shot that still hit the body of JFK.

After this pipe burn (or obstruction)of the pipe , did the gunman take up some other kind of firing stance before he fired off 2 more shots rapidly together about 4 secs later?

If it were not for Harold Normans description of hearing the clack clack noise which suggests a bolt action rifle, then the 4 sec spacing of all 3 shots that Norman also  demonstrates , would indicate that a semi auto rifle was more probable than a bolt action rifle to be able to fire 3 shots rapidly, especially the last 2 which most witness heard “back to back”.

 An obstruction causing the gunman to miss would fit nicely with a theory of semi auto rifle being used and the gunman firing 3 rapid shots. The gunman , having had his aimed head shot at Z220 thrown off from either a pipe or other obstruction when he pulled the trigger at Z222 ,  adjusted his firing position slightly afterwards, while still tracking the target with his good quality scope mounted correctly on his good quality semi auto rifle.

He fired about 4.8 secs after his missed head shot at Z223 and fired 2 shots rapidly at Z313.

The 2nd shot was the head shot at Z313, followed immediately by the 3rd shot a split sec after Z313, which because of “muzzle rise” from  firing rapidly, caused that shot to fly over JFKs head, and over to the curb near to Tague (by the Triple underpass)

A projectile fired from a semi auto rifle with different composition of metals than the MC rifle 6.5mm bullet, thus may explain the anomaly of metallic element analyzed from the curb not matching the typical 6.5 mm bullet from the MC rifle (in Tom Aleya film lifted from the 6th floor by Lt. Day) and alleged to be the rifle fired by the SW gunman by the WC.

It may also explain CE 399 MC bullet  having been substituted for a bullet that came from Gov Connallys leg, ( or replacing the one found on a stretcher) which bullet was of different caliber than 6.5 mm or was not  a type which could have been fired by an MC rifle even if it were 6.5 mm, because of cartridge size.

The most stable position (by far) available at that location would have been sitting on box D and using the Rolling Readers box on top of box C as a support for his left forearm. Based on my experiments, the western most pipe (electrical conduit) would have been a factor for an early shot (~Z133). The corner of the other Rolling Readers box that was sitting on the window ledge would have also been a factor for an early shot (~Z133). While sitting on box D neither the conduit or the corner of the window box should have been a factor for a shot much later than ~Z133.

[Zeon Mason]

Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

There was a 2/3rd majority of witnesses who heard the 3 shots spaced so closely together that do not  match a 9-10 seconds time interval.

There was no physical evidence from the light fixture or pole of the traffic light that supports the z133 1st shot premise.

If the shooter was visually surveying his field of fire in preparation, as the motorcade started up Houston st, then he surely was aware of the possible obstacles, the tree and the light pole, so all the more reason that he MAY have decided that his best opportunity was to not begin shooting until after the JFK limo has gone PAST both traffic pole AND the tree. Which therefore makes z223 a very probable FIRST shot.

There is a slight movement by SS agent Hickey in the back seat of the follow up car which occurs approx Z143-144

Virgie Racheley is a witness who claims seeing something strike the pavement beside the JFK limo.

These 2 witnesses may possibly have seen or be reacting to the slight noise of a suppressed shot from Daltex building that missed the JFK limo

[Joe Elliott]

On a thread about: "Why the first shot missed", it should be mentioned that the first shot may have missed because it had the highest angular velocity of the three shots from the TSBD sniper's nest.

First shot, at z-153: Angular velocity is 4.8 degrees per second.
Second shot, at z-222: Angular velocity is 1.9 degrees per second.
Third shot, at z-312: Angular velocity is 0.58 degrees per second.

The first shot had an angular velocity that was 2.5 times greater than the second.
The second shot had an angular velocity that was 3 times greater than the third.

Naturally, one might expect the first shot to miss.

How high is the angular velocity of 4.8 degrees per second for a rifle shooter? Pretty high. In the 1908 Olympics, where I could get the most information about, the world's best shooters at moving targets were shooting at a target that only moved 3.2 degrees per second.

A shot at z-133 would have an even higher angular velocity than the one at z-153.
A shot before z-133? Higher than the angular velocity of a shot at z-133.

One does not have to hypothesis that Oswald missed the first shot because he was getting himself into hot water. Which he certainly was. Just the difficulty of an early shot is explanation enough.

I have made previous posts that address this in more detail. On can check out the first post made for each of the following two threads:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,3570.0.html

How to Calculate the Angular Velocities of a Target
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2640.msg93376.html#msg93376

[Charles Collins]

Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

There was a 2/3rd majority of witnesses who heard the 3 shots spaced so closely together that do not  match a 9-10 seconds time interval.

There was no physical evidence from the light fixture or pole of the traffic light that supports the z133 1st shot premise.

If the shooter was visually surveying his field of fire in preparation, as the motorcade started up Houston st, then he surely was aware of the possible obstacles, the tree and the light pole, so all the more reason that he MAY have decided that his best opportunity was to not begin shooting until after the JFK limo has gone PAST both traffic pole AND the tree. Which therefore makes z223 a very probable FIRST shot.

There is a slight movement by SS agent Hickey in the back seat of the follow up car which occurs approx Z143-144

Virgie Racheley is a witness who claims seeing something strike the pavement beside the JFK limo.

These 2 witnesses may possibly have seen or be reacting to the slight noise of a suppressed shot from Daltex building that missed the JFK limo

Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

The steep angle to the Z133 location does (from a sitting position) put the corner of the window sill box in the way. Max Holland proposes a standing position for an early shot. However, a sitting position with support for the left arm is much more stable. And I find it hard to believe that the assassin would intentionally switch from a standing position to a sitting position during the few seconds available to him to fire the rifle. I don’t believe that he had an opportunity to practice his intended shots while holding the rifle because this would have potentially been seen by the spectators below on the street and given his intentions away before he could execute them.

When I discovered the interference from the box corner with my 3D computer model, my first thoughts were that he was probably tracking the target with his rifle (to get it aimed properly) and the corner of the box interfered, causing an inadvertent shot to miss badly. And that is why I started this thread a long time ago. Lately, I have been experimenting further and have some interesting thoughts that I plan to share soon. So, stay tuned…

[Charles Collins]

On a thread about: "Why the first shot missed", it should be mentioned that the first shot may have missed because it had the highest angular velocity of the three shots from the TSBD sniper's nest.

First shot, at z-153: Angular velocity is 4.8 degrees per second.
Second shot, at z-222: Angular velocity is 1.9 degrees per second.
Third shot, at z-312: Angular velocity is 0.58 degrees per second.

The first shot had an angular velocity that was 2.5 times greater than the second.
The second shot had an angular velocity that was 3 times greater than the third.

Naturally, one might expect the first shot to miss.

How high is the angular velocity of 4.8 degrees per second for a rifle shooter? Pretty high. In the 1908 Olympics, where I could get the most information about, the world's best shooters at moving targets were shooting at a target that only moved 3.2 degrees per second.

A shot at z-133 would have an even higher angular velocity than the one at z-153.
A shot before z-133? Higher than the angular velocity of a shot at z-133.

One does not have to hypothesis that Oswald missed the first shot because he was getting himself into hot water. Which he certainly was. Just the difficulty of an early shot is explanation enough.

I have made previous posts that address this in more detail. On can check out the first post made for each of the following two threads:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,3570.0.html

How to Calculate the Angular Velocities of a Target
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2640.msg93376.html#msg93376

Yes, I agree. And I replied to your thread accordingly. There are numerous factors to consider.

[Charles Collins]

In this photo, do the two arrows point to the "crease" on the box that some people thought might have been made to support the rifle while aiming?




Or, was there another "crease" or dent elsewhere on one of the boxes that could be what those people were describing?

[Joe Elliott]

Yes, I agree. And I replied to your thread accordingly. There are numerous factors to consider.

Yes. But on this thread, we had twenty pages on 'Why the first shot missed' without the high angular velocity of the first shot even being mentioned. While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason. That factor, by itself, means that we should expect for Oswald to miss the first shot. But have a much better chance with his second and third shots, where the angular velocity was much lower.