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Author Topic: How Good Are People at Counting?  (Read 7975 times)

Offline Jerry Organ

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Re: How Good Are People at Counting?
« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2018, 08:02:41 PM »
No one argues that every witness is a good observer.  We do not even have to assume thaten that the majority of witnesses are good observers.  They may or may not be.  Rather, it is about the statistical significance of the observations of witnesses who independently report having made a particular observation. 

If I had not seen the video and I asked 100 people who had watched the video (alone and without being exposed to anyone else's reaction) to independently (ie. without discussing it with any other witness) tell me what they saw and if only 5 people told me they saw a person dressed as a gorilla walk through and 95 failed to notice anything unusual, I could still very reliably conclude that a person dressed as a gorilla walked through.  That is so highly statistically significant that it leaves no room for any other conclusion.   The gorilla observations are reliable because the alternative is the 5 people all, independently, had the same strange hallucination.  A witness would have to make up the "gorilla" story.  If another wanted to make up a story as well, the chance that that person would independently choose to make up the same story is very small (one could say it was zero, since there are an infinite number of things a person can make up).  If another 3 reported observing the same thing, independently, that makes it even more of certainty.  The key is "independence".  If only one person reported seeing a gorilla, I could draw no conclusion because I have no independent corroboration - no way to determine whether that person has a vision problem or some kind of mental issue or is simply lying.

In the JFK assassination, the majority of witnesses did not observe what JFK did in response to the first shot.  We ignore the lack of observations because the lack of observations are not independent events - they were either not looking at the president or, if they were, could not recall what he did.  We pay attention to those who did make an observation of what he did in response to the first shot.  As far as I can tell, with the possible exception of Mary Woodward (possibly, because she gave evidence that the last two shots were close together, which conflicts with JFK not being hit by the first shot) all witnesses who reported seeing JFK at the time of the first shot observed an unusual kind of reaction. There were at least 20 such witnesses. No witness who observed JFK's reaction said that he continued to smile and/or wave afterward, let alone for 3 seconds afterward. 


But how many witnesses could see clearly the President's face or much of his right hand?

In your paper, you state:
    "At least 16 witnesses recalled that the President reacted
     to the first shot by leaning left and bringing his hands to
     his neck. (footnote) From frame 167 to frame 198 of the
     Zapruder film the President and First Lady turned to their
     right to smile and wave at the crowd. No one said that the
     smiling and waving occurred after the first shot."

From your footnote:
  • T.E. Moore (could not see the President's face and not much of his raided right hand;



    Moore's "slumping forward" could be head nod in the Z170s as seen from behind.)

  • Nellie Connally, whom you quote: "I turned over my right shoulder and looked back, and saw the President as he had both hands at his neck." How can Nellie be reacting to a first shot at Z192ish if she doesn't see the President until he has his hands at his neck area? That's nearly two full seconds before she sees Kennedy if she heard a shot at Z192.
  • David Powers (can't see the President's face and maybe not his right hand)
  • Gayle Newman
  • William Newman, whom you quote: "The President jumped up in his seat, and it looked like what I thought was a firecracker had went off and I thought he had realized it. It was just like an explosion and he was standing up." ("Jumped up in his seat" and "he had realized like it" seems like the President was startled, not wounded.)
  • John Chism (shot you referenced occurred before the last shot)
  • Faye Chism (shot you referenced occurred before the last shot)
  • James Altgens, whom you state: "He said his z255 shot was after first shot and before any other." (But his testimony shows he was really only sure of two shots, but when pressed, he placed a shot between the two shots he was sure of.)
  • Abraham Zapruder (from the quote you provide, he could be be talking about the Z223 shot)
  • Clint Hill (even you acknowledge he only recalled two shots; Hill's "slump" shot could have occurred before the last shot.)
  • Linda Willis (she wouldn't see the President "grab his throat" and her view to the President at Z223 was probably blocked; more likely she saw the President when she had a view of him earlier -- "kind of slumped forward" could be the Z170s head nod as seen from behind.)

  • George Hickey (can't see the President's face; Hickey claims 2 to 3 seconds passed before he saw the President "slump"; three seconds before Z223 is Z168.)
  • Sam Kinney (can't see the President's face; Kinney's statement "I saw the President lean toward the left and appeared to have grabbed his chest with his right hand" could be the Z170s head nod and subsequent right hand lowering as seen from behind.)
  • Paul Landis, whom you quote: "I saw him moving in a manner which I thought was to look in the direction of the sound." (Doesn't sound like a witness for leaning leftward nor bringing his hands to his neck. Also can't see the President's face.)
  • Cecil Ault, whom you describe with:
        "Viewing from court house on Houston. Reported to
          have seen JFK rise up in his seat after first shot."

    (But Ault's full comment "Following the first shot Mr. AULT noted that President KENNEDY appeared to raise up in his seat in the Presidential automobile and after the second shot the President slumped into his seat" has the President slumping on the second shot.)
  • Harold Norman ("slumped or something" could just well be the Z170s head nod or Kennedy brushing his hair in the Z150s.)
That's 16 ...
  • Malcolm Summers (shot you referenced occurred before the last shot)
  • Mary Moorman, whom you quote: "As I snapped the picture of President Kennedy, I heard a shot ring out. President Kennedy kind of slumped over." (Can't quite link her taking her picture as the first shot occurred.)
  • Jean Newman (shot you referencef occurred before the last shot)
  • Charles Brehm (shot you referenced occurred before the last shot)
  • Pierce Allman, whom you quote: "the President was ducking from the first shot." (Couldn't see the President's face nor much of the right hand; could be head nod in Z170s as seen from behind.)
BTW, several of your first-shot "slump" witnesses thought the first two shots were closer together than the last two.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2018, 08:10:13 PM by Jerry Organ »

Offline Bill Chapman

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Re: How Good Are People at Counting?
« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2018, 08:02:58 PM »
Because a gorilla walking through a basketball game with intentionally distracted viewers is nothing like a bag on the floor of a crime scene where law enforcement officers are specifically examining the scene for evidence.

The Invisible Gorilla experiment spawned IB science.

Try to pay attention 
;)

Offline Bill Chapman

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Re: How Good Are People at Counting?
« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2018, 08:46:18 PM »
« Last Edit: February 09, 2018, 08:48:51 PM by Bill Chapman »

Offline John Iacoletti

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Re: How Good Are People at Counting?
« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2018, 08:57:09 PM »
Besides Oswald carrying his rifle to the crime scene in a brown paper bag,

LOL

Quote
is there any other evidence in the history of the world where a brown paper bag was employed to carry a rifle to a murder and then left at the scene?

Not that I know of -- including this one.

Offline John Iacoletti

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Re: How Good Are People at Counting?
« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2018, 09:01:06 PM »

LOL.  Nowhere in that video does McDonald even say that Oswald tried to shoot a cop in the theater.

Offline John Iacoletti

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Re: How Good Are People at Counting?
« Reply #25 on: February 09, 2018, 09:02:41 PM »
The Invisible Gorilla experiment spawned IB science.

Try to pay attention 
;)

And this has what to do with a paper bag allegedly located in an alleged crime scene?

Paul McBrearty

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Re: How Good Are People at Counting?
« Reply #26 on: February 09, 2018, 09:18:59 PM »
LOL.  Nowhere in that video does McDonald even say that Oswald tried to shoot a cop in the theater.

Oh, yes, he does. If you pay attention to the video McDonald states that he "snapped the pistol" in other words he pulled the trigger. Innocent people certainly don't try to shoot their way out, now do they. 

Offline Bill Chapman

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Re: How Good Are People at Counting?
« Reply #27 on: February 09, 2018, 09:33:36 PM »
And this has what to do with a paper bag allegedly located in an alleged crime scene?

Inattentional blindness possibilities

« Last Edit: February 09, 2018, 09:38:24 PM by Bill Chapman »

Offline John Iacoletti

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Re: How Good Are People at Counting?
« Reply #28 on: February 09, 2018, 09:38:50 PM »
Oh, yes, he does. If you pay attention to the video McDonald states that he "snapped the pistol" in other words he pulled the trigger. Innocent people certainly don't try to shoot their way out, now do they.

Even if he did "snap the pistol" like embellisher McDonald claimed, that doesn't mean he was trying to shoot anybody.  Furthermore,
CT Walker said that he saw several hands on the gun before it ever came out, and that when he heard a soft click (which Ray Hawkins said could have been somebody in the seats making a noise) the gun was pointed at a 45 degree angle and slightly toward the screen.  Not only that, but McDonald said on day one that the gun misfired.  The bit about sticking his hand between the hammer and the firing pin came later.  And Paul Bentley claimed that he was the one who prevented the gun from firing.

So, there's no good reason to think that the trigger was necessarily ever pulled, and if it was there's no good reason to think that it must have been Oswald who did it, or that it was aimed toward a cop at the time.

Offline John Iacoletti

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Re: How Good Are People at Counting?
« Reply #29 on: February 09, 2018, 09:48:21 PM »
Inattentional blindness possibilities



Because a gorilla walking through a basketball game with intentionally distracted viewers is nothing like a bag on the floor of a crime scene where law enforcement officers are specifically examining the scene for evidence.


 

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