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Author Topic: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?  (Read 3087 times)

Offline Andrew Mason

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At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« on: November 15, 2018, 07:03:48 PM »
In May 1964 the FBI did a recreation of the progression of the President's car down Elm St.  Some parts of the results of that effort were included in the Warren Commission exhibits but it is difficult to determine how they related the positions of the car to the zfilm.

I have been looking at the Secret Service film recreating the assassination as seen from the SN.  It was taken in early December 1963.  The film can be viewed here (the President's car starts down Elm at about 10:20):


A few things are striking: 

1. The foliage and branches are quite different than we see in the FBI recreation taken in May 1964
2. The film shows how easy it would have been for the shooter to have tracked the President as he passed under the tree.
3. The film shows the surrounding area so we can identify the location and the corresponding Zapruder film frame rather than relying on the FBI's determination which cannot be checked.
4, The car used in the Secret Service film (it appears to be a Ford Falcon) was lower to the ground than the car used by the FBI (the "Queen Mary" Secret Service car) and much closer to the height of the President's limo.

The Secret Service film shows that the President was clear of the tree at this position:



The issue, then, is: to which Zapruder frame does this position of the President correspond?.


The first question is:

1. Where is the President in relation to the lamp post and the Thornton sign?

The car is following the street direction so the parts of the car that are perpendicular to the car's direction (eg. the front, back, windshield) are perpendicular to the curbs.  I have drawn the yellow lines to extend to points on the north side of Elm that can be identified in the zfilm such as the lamp post and the Thornton Freeway sign. The distance between the lamp post and the left-most Thornton sign post is about 13 feet according to the scale map.

Since the road-perpendicular line from the back of JFK's position in the photo (the lower yellow line) crosses the lamp post at a point that is a bit higher above the ground than the line is above the car, this means that the back of JFK is slightly AHEAD of the lamp post.  Since it crosses below the foot of the Thornton Freeway sign, it is well before that sign. 

The road-perpendicular line from the front of the car (the higher yellow line) crosses the Thornton sign at about the foot of the sign post. 

The Ford Falcon length was 181 inches or 15 feet 1".  The back of the back seat is approximately 2/3 of the car length from the front, so the distance between the two yellow lines is about 10 feet. The height of the Ford Falcon to the top of roof (of the non-convertible) was 54 inches so I estimate the top of the hood and trunk to be about 34 inches or just under 3 feet above the ground.

If the front of the car was opposite the Thornton sign, and assuming the top of the hood is about 3 feet above the road, that line should intersect the sign post at a height of about 3 feet above the road or about 2 feet above the bottom of the post.  So the front of the car is just behind the Thornton Freeway sign (i.e. the line which passes just above the top of the hood crosses the sign at a point that is lower in relation to the sign). 

JFK, therefore, is slightly ahead of the lamp post and at least 10 feet from the sign so he is at most about 3 feet past the lamp post.

The next question is:

2. To which Zapruder frame does this position correspond?


You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login shows that JFK was at that point when JFK was just coming up to or on a line from Zapruder to the edge of the round concrete wall of the north reflecting pool.  Since that line corresponds to a sightline from Zapruder's camera, we just have to look at the zflim to find the frame in which JFK's head aligns with the edge of that wall.  That frame is z195. If he was just approaching, frame 193 or 194 would fit as well.

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So I must conclude as follows:

1. the FBI edid not conduct an accurate recreation.
2. the FBI/WC was not correct in finding that JFK was not clear of the oak tree until frame z210
3. we do not know how the FBI determined which frame corresponded to the positions in their recreation
4. we can conclude that JFK was easily trackable as he passed beneath the oak tree.
5. we can reliably determine from the Secret Service film where the President was when he emerged from under the oak tree and when the shooter in the SN had an unobstructed view of JFK's head.
5. JFK emerged from beneath the oak tree and the shooter had an unobstructed view of JFK's head between frames z193 and z195.


I invite your comments.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 04:27:35 AM by Andrew Mason »

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At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« on: November 15, 2018, 07:03:48 PM »

Online Walt Cakebread

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2018, 07:43:20 PM »
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In May 1964 the FBI did a recreation of the progression of the President's car down Elm St.  Some parts of the results of that effort were included in the Warren Commission exhibits but it is difficult to determine how they related the positions of the car to the zfilm.

I have been looking at the Secret Service film recreating the assassination as seen from the SN.  It was taken in early December 1963.  The film can be viewed here (the President's car starts down Elm at about 10:20):


A few things are striking: 

1. The foliage and branches are quite different than we see in the FBI recreation taken in May 1964
2. The film shows how easy it would have been for the shooter to have tracked the President as he passed under the tree.
3. The film shows the surrounding area so we can identify the location and the corresponding Zapruder film frame rather than relying on the FBI's determination which cannot be checked.
4, The car used in the Secret Service film (it appears to be a Ford Falcon) was lower to the ground than the car used by the FBI (the "Queen Mary" Secret Service car) and much closer to the height of the President's limo.

The Secret Service film shows that the President was clear of the tree at this position:



The issue, then, is: to which Zapruder frame does this position of the President correspond?.


The first question is:

1. Where is the President in relation to the lamp post and the Thornton sign?

The car is following the street direction so the parts of the car that are perpendicular to the car's direction (eg. the front, back, windshield) are perpendicular to the curbs.  I have drawn the yellow lines to extend to points on the north side of Elm that can be identified in the zfilm such as the lamp post and the Thornton Freeway sign. The distance between the lamp post and the left-most Thornton sign post is about 13 feet according to the scale map.

Since the road-perpendicular line from the back of JFK's position in the photo (the lower yellow line) crosses the lamp post at a point that is a bit higher above the ground than the line is above the car, this means that the back of JFK is slightly AHEAD of the lamp post.  Since it crosses below the foot of the Thornton Freeway sign, it is well before that sign. 

The road-perpendicular line from the front of the car (the higher yellow line) crosses the Thornton sign at about the foot of the sign post. 

The Ford Falcon length was 181 inches or 15 feet 1".  The back of the back seat is approximately 2/3 of the car length from the front, so the distance between the two yellow lines is about 10 feet. The height of the Ford Falcon to the top of roof (of the non-convertible) was 54 inches so I estimate the top of the hood and trunk to be about 34 inches or just under 3 feet above the ground.

If the front of the car was opposite the Thornton sign, and assuming the top of the hood is about 3 feet above the road, that line should intersect the sign post at a height of about 3 feet above the road or about 2 feet above the bottom of the post.  So the front of the car is just behind the Thornton Freeway sign (i.e. the line which passes just above the top of the hood crosses the sign at a point that is lower in relation to the sign). 

JFK, therefore, is slightly ahead of the lamp post and at least 10 feet from the sign so he is at most about 3 feet past the lamp post.

The next question is:

2. To which Zapruder frame does this position correspond?


You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login shows that JFK was at that point when JFK was just coming up to or on a line from Zapruder to the edge of the round concrete wall of the north reflecting pool.  Since that line corresponds to a sightline from Zapruder's camera, we just have to look at the zflim to find the frame in which JFK's head aligns with the edge of that wall.  That frame is z195. If he was just approaching, frame 193 or 194 would fit as well.

So I must conclude as follows:

1. the FBI did not conduct an accurate recreation.
2. the FBI was not correct in finding that JFK was not clear of the oak tree until frame z210
3. we do not know how the FBI determined which frame corresponded to the positions in their recreation
4. we can conclude that JFK was easily trackable as he passed beneath the oak tree.
5. we can reliably determine from the Secret Service film where the President was when he emerged from under the oak tree and when the shooter in the SN had an unobstructed view of JFK's head.
5. JFK emerged from beneath the oak tree and the shooter had an unobstructed view of JFK's head between frames z193 and z195.


I invite your comments.

On page 102 WR there is a photo that was allegedly taken through a rifle scope.... LBJ's Cover up committee labeled that as taken at frame Z 210

The photo that you present was taken BEFORE the photo that they said was taken at Z 210.....I would guess the photo was taken at about Z 188.

Offline Gary Craig

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2018, 01:49:34 PM »




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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2018, 01:49:34 PM »

Offline Gary Craig

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2018, 02:04:06 PM »
from
"The xxxxxx Bullet"
by Raymond Marcus
1966

~snip~





~snip~

Offline Michael Walton

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2018, 04:01:36 PM »
This is why all of the bunk about shots being fired way up right after the turn onto Elm are just that - bunk. The planners knew that you couldn't possibly get off a clean unobstructed shot earlier.  Think about it - all of this planning and they'd leave something like this to chance? No.

They knew this and, therefore, the shots do NOT start until Kennedy reappears from the sign in the film. Which dovetails nicely with what Thompson has always said about the shooting sequence - 5.8 seconds from start to finish.

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2018, 04:01:36 PM »

Offline Andrew Mason

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2018, 05:50:49 PM »
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This is why all of the bunk about shots being fired way up right after the turn onto Elm are just that - bunk. The planners knew that you couldn't possibly get off a clean unobstructed shot earlier.  Think about it - all of this planning and they'd leave something like this to chance? No.

They knew this and, therefore, the shots do NOT start until Kennedy reappears from the sign in the film. Which dovetails nicely with what Thompson has always said about the shooting sequence - 5.8 seconds from start to finish.
?? JFK does not completely reappear from behind the Stemmons sign until frame z225.  The head shot was at 312/313.  That is 88 frames or 4.8 seconds.

The vast majority of witnesses who recalled a shot pattern (40+) said that the last two were closer together.  There were a few (6 by my count) who said that the first two were closer and about 10 who said that the shots were about equally spaced.   If the first shot was as JFK emerged from under the oak tree at about z195 (possibly a few frames earlier), that would give 118 frames between the first shot being fired and last shot striking, which is 6.44 seconds.  The car was 275 feet from the SN at z313 so the head shot was fired 275/2000 = 140 ms. or  2.5  frames earlier or at z310.  So the time between firing the first and last shots (and, therefore, the time between shot sounds for a stationary observer) would have been 115 frames or 6.28 seconds.

The midpoint would have been z253 or so.  If the second shot was perceptibly closer to the last than to the first, we should be looking for a shot after z265.  Oswald could easily have done that by himself.

Offline Michael Walton

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2018, 07:08:22 PM »
I don't put a whole lot faith in what witnesses said. They were not standing around saying "Wait! Here come the shots!"

There are so many inconsistencies and "he said that, she said this" that they pretty much cancel each other out.  Not all of them but a lot of them.

Go by what you see in the Z film.  Film doesn't lie. The timing is more closely to 5.8 - 6 seconds. But let's not argue milliseconds here - there's no way a shooter up on the 6th floor could have gotten all of those shots off, proving conspiracy.

Why quibble over it.

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2018, 07:08:22 PM »

Online John Iacoletti

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2018, 07:19:58 PM »
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Go by what you see in the Z film.  Film doesn't lie. The timing is more closely to 5.8 - 6 seconds. But let's not argue milliseconds here - there's no way a shooter up on the 6th floor could have gotten all of those shots off, proving conspiracy.

But people's interpretations of films can lie.  For example, any attempt to pinpoint when the first shot occurred (if there even was a shot before JFK emerged from the sign) is subjective guesswork.

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2018, 07:19:58 PM »

Offline Michael Walton

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2018, 07:29:04 PM »
That's kind of sort of what I mean.  For example, I've read people say that the reason his head goes quickly over to the right before the sign comes on is because he was reacting to shots.

But elsewhere, there's a more plausible reason why it happened - those group of clapping women over on the curb yelled out, "Mr. President...over here!" and that's what he did. He looked over there and then waved and then his arm kind of freezes in mid wave until the first shot.

Look through the footage of the parade before Dealey.  The guy was was doing all manner of things - waving, turning, fluffing his his hair, leaning forward, talking to Connally, etc. There's even a clip where he waves and his arm stops in mid air just like it looks as he reappears from the sign.

Nothing violent starts until his hands snap up in front of face, which is where the first shot starts.

Offline Andrew Mason

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2018, 11:34:14 PM »
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But people's interpretations of films can lie.  For example, any attempt to pinpoint when the first shot occurred (if there even was a shot before JFK emerged from the sign) is subjective guesswork.
Not exactly "subjective" or "guesswork".  We have evidence  that bears on this issue. We see JFK reacting to his throat wound by z224/225 when he first appears from behind the sign, so the shot was before then.

We also have witnesses along Elm who identified the location of President relative to where they were standing at the time of the first shot.  Those positions are all pretty consistent and fit with what witnesses in the motorcade said about where they were when the first shot occurred and consistent with where the photographers Hugh Betzner and Phil Willis put the first shot: Somewhere between z190 and z200.

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Re: At which Zframe was JFK clear of the oak tree from the SN?
« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2018, 11:34:14 PM »

 

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