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61
Yes, there is.

As captured in the Zapruder film, at least seven prime witnesses to the sounds of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot at "Z-124" moved their heads in a conscious, non-startle, way within half-a-second of each other about a second after said shot, and those witnesses included everyone in the limo except for the hard-to-see driver.

Governor Connally recognized the sound as coming from a high-powered rifle and turned far to his right starting around Z-164 (after having turned to his left) in order to look towards the rear where he knew the shot had come.
That is not evidence of a shot.  At best that is evidence of something that caused them to turn to the right.  The evidence of what that was is provided by Mary Woodward and it was before the first “horrible ear-shattering noise”.
62
If there was evidence of a first missed shot, I would have to conclude that, for whatever reason, he made it. But there isn’t.

Yes, there is.

As captured in the Zapruder film, at least seven prime witnesses to the sounds of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot at "Z-124" moved their heads in conscious non-startle ways within half-a-second of each other about a second after said shot, and those witnesses included everyone in the limo except for the hard-to-see driver.

Governor Connally recognized the sounds as coming from a high-powered rifle and turned far to his right starting around Z-164 (after having turned to his left) in order to look towards the rear where he knew the shot had come from.
63
You're assuming that the killer of JFK, Lee Harvey Oswald, was a rational person.
No. I am saying the argument that Oswald would have knowingly taken a difficult first shot and that’s why it missed isn’t persuasive. If there was evidence of a first missed shot I would have to conclude that, for whatever reason, he made it. But there isn’t.
64
No problem, Tom. I strongly disagree with at least half of my own posts!  :D In fact, when someone here appeared to have created sock puppets to agree with his posts, I suggested it would be way more fun and interesting to create a sock puppet who violently disagreed with your posts.

What I notice recently is that I will type a word completely different from the word I intended to type. On one post today, I meant to type "joined" and typed "enjoyed." My brain and memory still seem to be hitting on all cylinders, but it is quite weird and unnerving.

That is surprising about Jean, but I don't know enough about the RFK-Dulles stuff to comment. (My paternal grandmother was a fabulously wealthy Kansas City socialite who knew the Dulles family. More accurately, to quote my father (her son), she was a "good-looking slut" who had him at 16 - in 1908 - and then married into fabulous Kansas City wealth in the form of an industrialist named Lester T. Sunderland.)

Lance, thank you. I have high confidence that this is the woman you described. She was 16 during part of 1908. I'll delete this link if you prefer.
https://www.findagrave.com/memorial/190262426/sara_p-simmons

I took Jean's challenge by purchasing a used copy of Willie Morris's book, snapped a shot of the page with the God quote and I shared the image of the page with her :
https://1drv.ms/i/c/fe47b6f7a749f492/IQDyAGiDenHcQ66Pmhrou1TFAdwWkTdkwfy90-qhMTIA-X8?e=2WFeLf
65
This below is Z-248.



There is likely a consensus that JFK has been struck at this point. JFK appears to be reacting to something, that appears to be a painful blow.

Gov. JBC is a different story. By JBC's account, he is beginning to turn around to see what has happened to JFK. JBC has heard a gunshot, which he says he recognized as a rifle shot.

In Z-248, JBC is holding in his right hand his Stetson hat. JBC's wrist appears uninjured. This is an image of what happened to JBC's radius bone:



There is a large hole in JBC's radius, where a slug smashed through, passing from the dorsal to the ventral side, in the wrist-adjacent part of his arm.

This is what Gov. JBC told the HSCA:

Connally: I was knocked over, just doubled over by the force of the bullet. It went in my back and came out my chest about 2 inches below and the left of my right nipple. The force of the bullet drove my body over almost double and when I looked, immediately I could see I was just drenched with blood. (1 HSCA 42)

Obviously, in Z-248, JBC is not doubled over. JBC is holding his Stetson, in what appears to be an uninjured wrist.

I have reasonable doubts about the SBT-LNT. The SBT-LNT are theories, and Arlen Specter developed the SBT working on the premise that there was a lone gunsel, who fired three times, and one shot missed. If one adheres to those premises, the SBT is the result.

Caveat emptor, and draw your own conclusions.
Your points are all well taken but one has to be careful about basing conclusions on the zfilm without fitting it to the rest of the evidence. The rest of the evidence tells us that there has been only one shot to that point. Governor Connally and Nellie always insisted he was hit in the torso on the second shot. So, if the Connallys were right, you are right: he has not yet received his chest wound.  Arlen Specter created the SBT to explain how a shot through JFK’s neck could have missed leaving a mark in the car. He concluded that it must have hit Connally.  That is a reasonable conclusion.  But the correct answer has to fit the evidence.  His SBT doesn’t fit the evidence. There is a simple explanation that does.
66
That argument works against your theory. Since Oswald had done much shooting he would have recognized that an early shot was not only difficult to make but would make quickly getting into position for any later shots much more difficult. So not only do you have zero evidence for an early missed shot, you have just explained why Oswald would not have made it.

You're assuming that the killer of JFK, Lee Harvey Oswald, was a rational person.
67
Even more fundamentally than that, it seems to me, is: Why would any pro-Castro pro-Cuba provacateur suggest anything along the lines of the JFKA to a erratic goofball whose background would POINT DIRECTLY TO CASTRO AND CUBA??? This sounds like "suicide by cop" on a national scale.

Exactly, it's similar to the FBI or CIA saying they have a low/high level employee, now let's have him kill the President!?
Or some Government employee relative of Ruth Paine saying "hey Sis, could you let a potential President's assassin's wife stay with you?

JohnM
68
You probably have not done much shooting if you can't recognize how much more difficult the early first shot was compared to the to later an longer shots. At 88 yards or less, distance is hardly a factor at all. He was firing almost dead down range with little relative movement of the target to the line of fire. That was not true of the first shot which also required shooting from an awkward stance with nothing to brace the rifle with the window sash likely partially obscuring his view.

I've always wished somebody would do a reenactment of that first shot just to see what challenges it would have presented. I'm not asking for a duplication which is impossible. Just a re-enactment to highlight the difficulties.
That argument works against your theory. Since Oswald had done much shooting he would have recognized that an early shot was not only difficult to make but would make quickly getting into position for any later shots much more difficult. So not only do you have zero evidence for an early missed shot, you have just explained why Oswald would not have made it.
69
Why would the Cubans even suggest to Oswald that he assassinate JFK when they couldn't have known about the opportunity fate would deal him. Maybe they said to him,, "Hey, Lee. On the off chance that somebody JFK happens to ride past your workplace in a slow moving open top car, why don't you whack him for us.".

Even more fundamentally than that, it seems to me, is: Why would any pro-Castro pro-Cuba provacateur suggest anything along the lines of the JFKA to a erratic goofball whose background would POINT DIRECTLY TO CASTRO AND CUBA??? This sounds like "suicide by cop" on a national scale.
70
This below is Z-248.



There is likely a consensus that JFK has been struck at this point. JFK appears to be reacting to something, that appears to be a painful blow.

Gov. JBC is a different story. By JBC's account, he is beginning to turn around to see what has happened to JFK. JBC has heard a gunshot, which he says he recognized as a rifle shot.

In Z-248, JBC is holding in his right hand his Stetson hat. JBC's wrist appears uninjured. This is an image of what happened to JBC's radius bone:



There is a large hole in JBC's radius, where a slug smashed through, passing from the dorsal to the ventral side, in the wrist-adjacent part of his arm.

This is what Gov. JBC told the HSCA:

Connally: I was knocked over, just doubled over by the force of the bullet. It went in my back and came out my chest about 2 inches below and the left of my right nipple. The force of the bullet drove my body over almost double and when I looked, immediately I could see I was just drenched with blood. (1 HSCA 42)

Obviously, in Z-248, JBC is not doubled over. JBC is holding his Stetson, in what appears to be an uninjured wrist.

I have reasonable doubts about the SBT-LNT. The SBT-LNT are theories, and Arlen Specter developed the SBT working on the premise that there was a lone gunsel, who fired three times, and one shot missed. If one adheres to those premises, the SBT is the result.

Caveat emptor, and draw your own conclusions.

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