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11
I will never understand why so many people look at eye and ear witness accounts as if they are empirical evidence. Witness accounts, by themselves, do not establish anything as factual. Witnesses can be, and often are, wrong. Yet when somebody comes across a witness that fits their preferred narrative, they latch onto it as "proof" of what they choose to believe. They act as if "So and so said........" establishes a fact without ever offering any supporting evidence that indicates what so-and-so said is correct. It might be correct and it might very well be wrong. All eye and ear witness accounts should be looked at as a big MAYBE unless and until it can be corroborated. While multiple witnesses saying the same thing is a bit more compelling than a single witness, it still doesn't establish what they said is correct. Multiple people can make the same mistake. Case in point. A large group of witnesses said all the shots came from the direction of the GK and another large group of witnesses said the shots all came from the direction of the TSBD. Obviously, both groups cannot be right. There is a large group of witnesses who all said the same wrong thing. They all made the same mistake. So while multiple witnesses saying the same thing is a bit more compelling than a single witness, it still does not establish a fact. The only time I will point to an eye or ear witness as evidence is if that witness can be corroborated by forensic evidence.

Same cherry picked BS: doesn't make it so.
Why do you even bother?
12
I have seen some really stupid posts by Griffith, but this one takes the cake! 
I usually don't read his tripe, but this one caught my eye because of its special type of absurdity.

You guys say this about every item of evidence that you can't explain.

I'm guessing you haven't bothered to read any of the articles and videos that I've linked in previous replies.

Would you care to offer an explanation for the evidence that Weldon presents, for starters? No, of course not. When at least eight witnesses in three different locations independently confirm something, such corroboration is usually considered to be very strong evidence.
13
I will never understand why so many people look at eye and ear witness accounts as if they are empirical evidence. Witness accounts, by themselves, do not establish anything as factual. Witnesses can be, and often are, wrong. Yet when somebody comes across a witness that fits their preferred narrative, they latch onto it as "proof" of what they choose to believe. They act as if "So and so said........" establishes a fact without ever offering any supporting evidence that indicates what so-and-so said is correct. It might be correct and it might very well be wrong. All eye and ear witness accounts should be looked at as a big MAYBE unless and until it can be corroborated. While multiple witnesses saying the same thing is a bit more compelling than a single witness, it still doesn't establish what they said is correct. Multiple people can make the same mistake. Case in point. A large group of witnesses said all the shots came from the direction of the GK and another large group of witnesses said the shots all came from the direction of the TSBD. Obviously, both groups cannot be right. There is a large group of witnesses who all said the same wrong thing. They all made the same mistake. So while multiple witnesses saying the same thing is a bit more compelling than a single witness, it still does not establish a fact. The only time I will point to an eye or ear witness as evidence is if that witness can be corroborated by forensic evidence.
14
In Motorcade 63, DPD Baker was located on Houston Street when he saw the pigeons fly up from the top of the TSBD. Mr Belin measured his position as being 60 to 80 feet North of the Main Street curb. According to Motorcade 63, that places the limousine at Z205 to Z225. 

Mr. BAKER - We appreoximated it was 60 to 80 feet there, north of the north curbline of Main on Houston.

Mr. BELIN - All right. Did you see or hear or do anything else after you heard the first noise?
Mr. BAKER - Yes, sir. As I was looking up, all these pigeons began to fly up to the top of the buildings here and I saw those come up and start flying around.
Given the approximate nature of that kind of estimate and correlation to the zfilm it does not exclude the possibility of a shot fitting with Phil Willis’ evidence of a first shot just before z202.
15
JFK Assassination & General Discussion & Debate / Re: The First Shot
« Last post by Jack Nessan on Today at 03:37:19 PM »
In Motorcade 63, DPD Baker was located on Houston Street when he saw the pigeons fly up from the top of the TSBD. Mr Belin measured his position as being 60 to 80 feet North of the Main Street curb. According to Motorcade 63, that places the limousine at Z205 to Z225. 

Mr. BAKER - We appreoximated it was 60 to 80 feet there, north of the north curbline of Main on Houston.

Mr. BELIN - All right. Did you see or hear or do anything else after you heard the first noise?
Mr. BAKER - Yes, sir. As I was looking up, all these pigeons began to fly up to the top of the buildings here and I saw those come up and start flying around.
16
There are a number of different ways to demonstrate that the first shot occurred around z222/z223. Here's one thanks to the work of Pat Speer and Mark Tyler. It concerns the witness statements of the occupants of the Vice-Presidential car and the Vice-Presidential follow-up car. From these statements it is possible to glean an approximate position for each car at the time of the first shot and from these approximate positions it is possible rule out various theories regarding the first shot.
I looked at a number of theories put forward for when the first shot occurred in relation to the Z-Film:

z133 (and before)
z160
z190
z222/z223 (my own proposal for the first shot)

First, a look at the statements:



VICE-PRESIDENTIAL FOLLOW-UP CAR

Joe Henry Rich [Driver] -
“We turned off of Houston Street onto Elm Street and that was when I heard the first shot."


Cliff Carter [passenger seat]  - 
"...our car had just made the left hand turn onto Elm and was right along side of the Texas School Book Depository Building when I heard a noise which sounded like a firecracker."

Jerry Kivett [back right] - 
"As the motorcade was approximately 1/3 the way to the underpass, traveling between 10 and 15 miles per hour, I heard a loud noise..."

Warren Taylor [back centre] -
“Our automobile had just turned a corner (the names of the streets are unknown to me) when I heard a bang which sounded to me like a possible firecracker —the sound coming from my right rear."

Thomas (Lem) Johns [back right] - 
"We turned onto Elm Street...We were going downhill...which put the Texas Book Depository on our right, more or less...But we were going down this Elm Street, with my door open. I heard at least two shots.."[/b]

10 witnesses in 2 vehicles all corroborating each others statements. Not one or two ambiguous statements open to any kind of interpretation. Every single occupant of both cars are stating, basically, the same thing - at the time of the first shot these cars had turned off Houston Street and were travelling down Elm.
I now turn to the work of Mark Tyler to compare how these statements support or refute the various theories put forward.

[
Z190



It can be said that car 7 is now travelling down Elm but car 8 is still to complete the turn as specified by the occupants of this car and, as such, a shot around z190 is refuted by the witness statements.

Z222/Z223



My own proposal.
It can be seen from the above image that both cars are now travelling on Elm after having completed the turn off Houston. There can be no doubt that this is the only theory that comes anywhere close to fitting the witness statements of the 10 occupants of these vehicles.
Yet further corroboration, if any were needed, that the first shot was the one that struck JFK in the throat around z222/z223.
z190 is, arguably, a reasonable fit with the evidence. According to Carter the VP security car had turned off Houston and their car was “right along side” the TSBD. If the VP car had just straightened up from the turn, the VP security car would have been a full car length + 5-10 feet behind. That would be a bit more than a full second behind.  Mrs. Cabell said they had just started to turn and when she heard the first shot she immediately looked up directly in front of her and was looking directly at the rifle in the 6th floor window.  At z222 her car is turned well past that point.

A shot at z190 or so would also fit the recollection of Phil Willis that his z202 photo was taken an instant after the first shot.
17
What evidence do you have for this.
I have plenty to demonstrate, beyond any doubt, that these two men are not Shelley and Lovelady.
If it's a case of "well, it looks like that to me", that's fair enough.


I'm wondering what part of the man having Shelley's white shirt collar, black jacket, hair doo, and body shape you don't understand?...Or the other man having Lovelady's plaid pattern and bald spot...Or the pair being exactly where Lovelady & Shelley would be according to the other testimonies...Or Shelley pulling up and talking to Hicks as she ran by...The pair fast-walking up the extension just so happens to be where Lovelady & Shelley would be if they were going up the extension according to the witnessing...I consider doubting this to be research-damaging silly-ness...


So, what makes you think the image you rely on for your identification hasn't been tampered with AS THE TOPIC OF THIS THREAD IS SUGGESTING?


When I first analyzed this with Thomas Graves 8 years ago the image I saw looked different and you could clearly see Molina's signature bald pate...Obviously the 6th Floor Museum's 1st generation copy should provide the best imagery once enhanced...Do you realize that copy has not been digitally enhanced?...It should yield impressive results...The JFK research community is uncredibly against obtaining that copy without any legitimate excuse...

Frazier was there, witnessed it, and said Lovelady & Shelley spoke to Calvery at the base of the steps...The Couch/Darnell clip backs this by showing that Calvery and Lovelady & Shelley are all at the correct distances for that meeting to have happened...There are strange characters in the research community who just like to cause trouble and muddy the waters...



I agree Lovelady and Shelley lied in their WC testimonies. I started a thread called "The 3 Minute Lie".
Adams was on the first floor within 60 seconds of the shooting where she saw Shelley and Lovelady. This is why they lied in their WC testimonies. I started a thread about this too - "Lovelady In Darnell And It's Ramifications".


If you time going up the extension and around the west side of the Depository, Lovelady & Shelley had too much distance to travel to get back in to the 1st Floor in time to meet Adams & Styles...Adams and Styles had a shorter route and most-likely got out the rear exit before Lovelady & Shelley got back in...

But, if you think about it, by conceding this you are admitting the men going up the extension are indeed Lovelady & Shelley (touche)...
18
Get a load of the new site rules Andrew Iler has posted at The Education Forum...And this is all happening under the guise of reforming the site and its rules to correct the previous abuses...The new rules posted by Iler are not new rules...They are a codifying of the worst of Gordon and the the petty dictators who called themselves moderators under his tyrannical rule...The new rules are simply an empowering of the administration and moderators to do anything they please under the color of moderation while incriminating any kind of correct criticism of their wrong doing...The best way to judge this is to input the forum's handling of the Prayer Man evidence...The new rules are carefully formulated in order to excuse the moderators for their criminal mishandling of the Prayer Man evidence while incriminating those who tried to press the correct evidence...What Iler is doing is just a hardening of Gordon's previous draconian self-serving rules in order to solidify the clique...It is an organizing of an insider group of members who are using way over-formulated rules to protect themselves while vilifying those who try to correct their wrong doing...

When I was rejected for re-admission to the forum I asked both Beckett and Knight how they justified with-holding the correct Prayer Man evidence from their members...Both Beckett and Knight refused to answer...If you take the set of rules Iler just wrote up and process the malfeasance of The Education Forum's moderation on the Prayer Man issue through them you will find that they fully accommodate the violators getting away with intentionally false claims and those who protest them being moderated and banned...The rather fascist, self-serving set of rules Iler just established is designed to pre-emptively disallow any questioning of the Forum's role in perpetuating dubious research practices like those of moderator Sandy Larsen who used his site authority to make the ridiculous claim that the 6th Floor Museum 1st generation copy of Darnell was a CIA forgery...That claim, coming from a moderator, places the forum in Cinque-land - as does Iler's partner, Jim DiEugenio's, pushing of a bogus theory before Congress...The clear conflict of interest and personal bias of Iler's affiliations and motives is painfully obvious...Iler is never going to ask DiEugenio why he pushed a theory that he himself admitted was bogus before Congress and that authoritarian set of rules he just posted is the means by which he's going to do it...If you are intelligent those new pompous rules written by Iler are specifically designed to protect those who back Larsen's corruption...And even worse they are dishonestly designed to make it look like the administration is pursuing high research standards when in fact it is just protecting the clique and their rotten claims...You've just seen the deck reshuffled in the clique's favor while dishonestly claiming it is a reforming of the previous wrongs...Watch all the suck-ups who line up to praise Iler...The rules Iler just posted allow The Education Forum to promote provably bad evidence on Prayer Man and punish those who correctly protest it with good research with banning, deletion, defamation, and censorship...To add insult to injury, like Gordon, it makes even pointing this out a ban-able offense...All you need to know is there is no commenting allowed on that new set of rules...

19
Yes, this is a serious problem for the case against Oswald.

Two people saw Oswald enter the TSBD that morning, Jack Dougherty and Buell Wesley Frazier. Dougherty said Oswald's hands were empty when he saw Oswald enter the building. Frazier said Oswald came into the TSBD carrying a brown bag with one end cupped in his palm and the other end tucked under his armpit.

This is a perfect example of why we shouldn't trust witnesses to remember mundane details when they had no reason to make note of them at the time they observed them. These two witnesses give mutually exclusive versions of Oswald entering the building and yet you offer both as evidence of Oswald's innocence.
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The alleged murder rifle was 35 inches long when disassembled. If the package contained the rifle, Oswald could not have carried the package in the manner described by Frazier. The package would have extended well above his armpit, making it impossible to carry it with one end in his hand the other end under his armpit.

That would be a problem if Frazier accurately remembered how Oswald carried the package. You have offered nothing that establishes he did.
Quote

Even more problematic for the case against Oswald is the length of the package/bag that Frazier saw Oswald bring to work that morning. Frazier told the Warren Commission (WC) that the bag he saw Oswald carrying was about 2 feet long, and that it was the kind "you get out of the grocery store." On December 1, 1963, FBI agents asked Frazier to mark the spot on the back seat of his car where the bag reached when it was placed there with one end up against the door. The agents measured the distance between that spot and the door and found it was 27 inches. Frazier's sister, Linnie Randle, who also saw the bag, also said it was 27 inches long.

I always chuckle when someone offers a witness' recollection as if it is an established fact. Eyewitnesses are notoriously unreliable especially when trying to recall detains that wouldn't have seemed the least bit important at the time. When a witness tells us something, the only proper reaction should be, "Maybe that's true. Maybe it's not".
Most witnesses don't deliberately lie nor do they have perfect recall. Typically they remember bits and pieces of an event and the minds fill in the blanks, usually inaccurately.

Any eyewitness account should be compared to the body of evidence as a whole to determine how reliable it is. In this case, Frazier told us Oswald carried the bag with the bottom cupped in his hand with the other end tucked under his arm. A bag was found next to the sniper's nest with Oswald's palm print on it just where it would be if he cupped it in his hand. The bag measured 40 inches long which means either it was not fully extended when Oswald carried it or Frazier was wrong about the bag being tucked under Oswald's arm. Since the bag contained fibers matching the blanket Oswald store his rifle in, that indicates Oswald had placed the rifle in the bag and it would be too long to carry tucked in his arm. Only someone desperate to argue for Oswald's innocence would conclude Frazier accurately remembered how Oswald carried the bag.
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Thus, according to both Frazier and his sister, the bag was at least 8 inches shorter than the disassembled Carcano rifle. In addition, in order for Oswald to have carried the package in the manner Frazier described, Oswald's height and arm length indicate the bag would have needed to be no more than 24 inches long.

So what. Neither measured the bag and neither of them had any reason to estimate its length AT THE TIME THEY OBSERVED IT.
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In response to this dilemma, the WC reflexively said that both Frazier and his sister were "mistaken" about the length of the bag. Posner pounces on Frazier's admission that he was not absolutely certain about the length of the bag, but he ignores the fact that Frazier had no doubt about how Oswald carried the bag, and he dismisses the fact that Frazier's sister said the bag was right around 27 inches long.

A perfectly logical conclusion given that the bag found by the sniper's nest MEASURED 40 inches long.
Quote

The WC claimed that Oswald made the brown paper bag from wrapping paper available to him at the Book Depository. However, an FBI lab report written shortly after the assassination said that the paper from the Depository "was examined by the FBI laboratory and found not to be identical with the paper gun case. . . ." (emphasis added).

But this report was later "corrected," and the "corrected version" said, "This paper was examined and found to have the same observable characteristics" as Oswald's paper bag. When asked to explain the contradiction, the FBI said the initial report was "inaccurate" and was "mistakenly passed along to the Warren Commission." Yeah, uh-huh. You bet.

I would gladly bet.
Quote

The brown paper bag did not have a drop of oil on it, yet the alleged murder weapon was described as well oiled. Anyone who has handled a rifle after it's been lubricated/oiled knows you have to be careful not to let the lubed part of the rifle touch your clothes or else you'll get oil on your clothes.

The mechanism was well oiled.
Quote

Yes, the jacket evidence is a ball of confusion for the case against Oswald.

Because of a confused witness.
Quote


Oswald's shirt is equally problematic for the WC's case. Four of the five witnesses who saw a man in the sixth-floor window said the man was wearing a "light-colored" regular shirt or jacket; the remaining witness said it was either a T-shirt or a regular shirt. This does not even come close to matching the description of the brown, rust-colored shirt that Oswald wore to work that day, and Oswald was seen in that rust-colored shirt less than 90 seconds after the shooting.

So you have just illustrated how witnesses don't get details right. We have conflicting witnesses describing the same shirt in different ways. This speaks to the reliability of witnesses.
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And then there are the shirt fibers that were "found" on the Carcano. The fibers were reportedly found in the crevice between the rifle's butt plate and its wooden stock. The WC noted that these fibers were found to match the shirt that Oswald was wearing when he was arrested at the Texas Theater.

However, Oswald was not wearing that shirt at the Book Depository. The DPD or the FBI must have rubbed the butt of the Carcano against the shirt Oswald was wearing at the theater, not realizing it was not the same shirt he had worn to work that day. Not a single fiber from the shirt that Oswald wore to work was found on the Italian rifle, nor were any fibers from his T-shirt found on the rifle.

I like how you cherry evidence to make your case. You ignore the fact that Mary Bledsoe, his former landlady, saw Oswald on McWatters bus and said he was wearing a shirt with a hole in the elbow. The shirt Oswald was arrested in had a hole in the elbow and that is the shirt that matched the fibers found on the butt plate.
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The WC erroneously claimed that Oswald did not change shirts after the shooting.

No, the error is in your FUBAR figuring. As long as you have been analyzing the evidence in this case, it's amazing how bad you are at it.
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However, the facts indicate otherwise. Officer Marrion Baker noted that Oswald was wearing a different shirt at the police station than the shirt he was wearing when Baker saw him on the second floor 75-90 seconds after the shooting. Oswald stated during his interrogation that he wore a long-sleeved shirt and gray pants to work, and that he changed clothes after he arrived home. The interviewing agent said Oswald described the shirt as "reddish." A rust-colored brown, long-sleeved shirt and gray pants were found in Oswald's apartment by the Dallas police after the shooting.

Well if Oswald said it, then it must be true. What reason would he have to lie?
20
No.11 reason: the 24” bag (give or take a couple of inches) as Buell W. Frazier described the way he saw Oswald  carrying the bag under his armpit and in the  cupped palm of his hand.

Yes, this is a serious problem for the case against Oswald.

Two people saw Oswald enter the TSBD that morning, Jack Dougherty and Buell Wesley Frazier. Dougherty said Oswald's hands were empty when he saw Oswald enter the building. Frazier said Oswald came into the TSBD carrying a brown bag with one end cupped in his palm and the other end tucked under his armpit.

The alleged murder rifle was 35 inches long when disassembled. If the package contained the rifle, Oswald could not have carried the package in the manner described by Frazier. The package would have extended well above his armpit, making it impossible to carry it with one end in his hand the other end under his armpit.

Even more problematic for the case against Oswald is the length of the package/bag that Frazier saw Oswald bring to work that morning. Frazier told the Warren Commission (WC) that the bag he saw Oswald carrying was about 2 feet long, and that it was the kind "you get out of the grocery store." On December 1, 1963, FBI agents asked Frazier to mark the spot on the back seat of his car where the bag reached when it was placed there with one end up against the door. The agents measured the distance between that spot and the door and found it was 27 inches. Frazier's sister, Linnie Randle, who also saw the bag, also said it was 27 inches long.

Thus, according to both Frazier and his sister, the bag was at least 8 inches shorter than the disassembled Carcano rifle. In addition, in order for Oswald to have carried the package in the manner Frazier described, Oswald's height and arm length indicate the bag would have needed to be no more than 24 inches long.

In response to this dilemma, the WC reflexively said that both Frazier and his sister were "mistaken" about the length of the bag. Posner pounces on Frazier's admission that he was not absolutely certain about the length of the bag, but he ignores the fact that Frazier had no doubt about how Oswald carried the bag, and he dismisses the fact that Frazier's sister said the bag was right around 27 inches long.

The WC claimed that Oswald made the brown paper bag from wrapping paper available to him at the Book Depository. However, an FBI lab report written shortly after the assassination said that the paper from the Depository "was examined by the FBI laboratory and found not to be identical with the paper gun case. . . ." (emphasis added).

But this report was later "corrected," and the "corrected version" said, "This paper was examined and found to have the same observable characteristics" as Oswald's paper bag. When asked to explain the contradiction, the FBI said the initial report was "inaccurate" and was "mistakenly passed along to the Warren Commission." Yeah, uh-huh. You bet.

The brown paper bag did not have a drop of oil on it, yet the alleged murder weapon was described as well oiled. Anyone who has handled a rifle after it's been lubricated/oiled knows you have to be careful not to let the lubed part of the rifle touch your clothes or else you'll get oil on your clothes.

No.12 reason: per BW Frazier, Oswald was wearing the GRAY jacket that Friday morning. Oswald had only 2 jackets, a gray jacket and a blue jacket. Oswald left TSBD wearing no jacket according to John Corbett because he believes Bledsoe saw Oswald on McWatters bus wearing  only the brown shirt with a hole in the sleeve. Ok, if that is true then how does Oswald’s gray jacket which he must have left in the TSBD get to under a car in a parking lot to be pointed out by some unnamed person? Oswald leaving the boarding house zipping up a jacket (per Earlene Roberts), could therefore only be the BLUE jacket. The description of the Tippit shooters “tan” jacket does not fit the  BLUE jacket Oswald had on when he left the boarding house. If Oswald discarded this blue jacket before he was seen by Brewer, how does that BLUE jacket wind up being found in the TSBD in the Domino room? And Who found BLUE jacket anyway?

Yes, the jacket evidence is a ball of confusion for the case against Oswald.

Oswald's shirt is equally problematic for the WC's case. Four of the five witnesses who saw a man in the sixth-floor window said the man was wearing a "light-colored" regular shirt or jacket; the remaining witness said it was either a T-shirt or a regular shirt. This does not even come close to matching the description of the brown, rust-colored shirt that Oswald wore to work that day, and Oswald was seen in that rust-colored shirt less than 90 seconds after the shooting.

And then there are the shirt fibers that were "found" on the Carcano. The fibers were reportedly found in the crevice between the rifle's butt plate and its wooden stock. The WC noted that these fibers were found to match the shirt that Oswald was wearing when he was arrested at the Texas Theater.

However, Oswald was not wearing that shirt at the Book Depository. The DPD or the FBI must have rubbed the butt of the Carcano against the shirt Oswald was wearing at the theater, not realizing it was not the same shirt he had worn to work that day. Not a single fiber from the shirt that Oswald wore to work was found on the Italian rifle, nor were any fibers from his T-shirt found on the rifle.

The WC erroneously claimed that Oswald did not change shirts after the shooting. However, the facts indicate otherwise. Officer Marrion Baker noted that Oswald was wearing a different shirt at the police station than the shirt he was wearing when Baker saw him on the second floor 75-90 seconds after the shooting. Oswald stated during his interrogation that he wore a long-sleeved shirt and gray pants to work, and that he changed clothes after he arrived home. The interviewing agent said Oswald described the shirt as "reddish." A rust-colored brown, long-sleeved shirt and gray pants were found in Oswald's apartment by the Dallas police after the shooting.
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