JFK Assassination Forum

  Koufax had an arthritic elbow and retired after the Dodgers were swept in the 1966 World Series. He was only 30 yrs old.

This reminds me of the acoustical study that convinced the HSCA that there was a second shooter and a fourth shot. Of course, that study was never peer reviewed before the HSCA bought it hook, line, and sinker. Later that study was determined to be junk science. Why should we give Roselle and Scearce any more credibility? What are their credentials? Was their work peer reviewed? If not, it falls into the same junk science category as the Bolt, Beranek and Newman study that was presented to the HSCA.

Given the fact that you believe, correctly, that Oswald fired all three shots and killed JFK, why do you think Elsie Dorman, standing 35 feet away from Oswald's ear-splitting Carcano, jiggled her camera so violently at "Z-124" that she inadvertently turned it off, and why did you think she did it again at Z-222?

Do you think Roselle and Scearce are mistaken when they say Kellerman began leaning over and looking behind/down to his right at Z-148, Connally began a quick head turn left, followed by quickly looking back right at Z-149, Jackie started an accelerated head turn to her left at Z-142,  JFK started taking a quick look to his left at Z-142, and Nellie began a quick, sweeping head turn to her right at Z-144?

Bear in mind these aren't shoulder-hunching "flinches", but head turns, and are, therefore, voluntary responses to the sounds of the gunshot, not "startle reactions" that preceded them about a half-second second earlier.

You've said that the Zapruder film, unlike many eyewitnesses, has never "lied" to you.

If you try hard enough, you'll find the above-mentioned all-within-a-half-second-of-each-other movements in your beloved celluloid truth-teller.

Lacking any other documented loud stimuli at the time, how else can these nearly simultaneous head movements of all five limo passengers be explained as anything other than their conscious responses to the sound(s) of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot?

Of course it's not. People who think they clearly remember an event can be dead wrong. Being certain isn't the same as being correct.

I continue to be amazed at your willingness to put so much faith in the weakest form of evidence we have which is witness testimony.

It is NOT a matter of putting blind faith in witnesses. That a witness can be a poor observer is a given. A good example would be AJ Millican who recalled 8 shots over several minutes or Jean Hill who reported seeing a small dog in the limo. But these stand out because no one else made that same observation.   

Although you are a poor witness, apparently,  most people are quite capable of observing and accurately recalling details.  They are especially reliable if most other witnesses also provided an observation of the same detail eg (shot pattern, colour of Jackie’s suit, loudness of sound, number of shots). This is confirmed by the studies done by psychology experts who have done controlled studies on human perception and memory. 

But that doesn’t matter.  The studies don’t matter.  The only thing that matters is whether there is  independent evidence, including the recollections of other witnesses, of the same fact. 

In this case there are three independent bodies of evidence corroborating that JFK reacted to the first shot.  Because there is such a high proportion of witnesses who made corroborating observations, you don’t care whether individual pieces might be unreliable. You just have to consider the probability this evidence could agree the way it does but still be incorrect.  That’s how fingerprint matching, firearm matching, and even DNA matching works. And it is how fact-finders find facts from evidence.

ME: Explain in 100 words or less how Roselle and Scearce determined that the first, missing everything, shot occurred about half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133.

Thought for 7s

GROK: Roselle and Scearce (2020) used human reaction-time science on the silent Zapruder film to time the first (missed) shot.

acsr.org

They distinguished fast involuntary startle reflexes (e.g., ~0.06–0.2 sec flinch) from slower voluntary “surprise” reactions (conscious head turns/looks to locate the sound source). Using brake perception-reaction time (PRT) models from traffic studies—adjusted for total surprise—they estimated median perception time to initiate voluntary movement at roughly 0.5–1+ sec (varying with expectancy).

https://d7922adf-f499-4a26-96d4-8ab2d521fa35.usrfiles.com/ugd/d7922a_e280e26982b44f2c97c6e6e27026e385.pdf

In early frames, they identified near-simultaneous voluntary reactions by 7 witnesses (JFK, Jackie, the Connallys, Kellerman, Hickey, Rosemary Willis) starting ~Z140–Z150 (e.g., rapid leftward head turns then right). Subtracting typical surprise PRT placed the gunshot sound ~½ sec earlier—at hypothetical Z-124, just before Zapruder restarted filming at Z-133 after his ~17-sec pause.

jfk-assassination.net

This fits eyewitness timing, earwitness patterns, and a pre-tree miss. (≈85 words)

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I know you love jiggles, John Corbett, so just for giggles I'd like to share with you what someone by the name of Herb Huskr just posted:

Three synchronized film clips:

1) Elsie Dorman

2) Secret Service reenactment

3) Zapruder clip

Shown with three dubbed-in gunshot sounds at the following times in the three different montages:

Montage 1:  "Z-107" Z-219 and Z-310

Montage 2:  "Z-124" Z-219 and Z-310

Montage 3: Z-160  Z-219 and Z-310

When we watch and listen to montage 2, we see that Dorman, who at a distance of 35 feet was subjected to about 135 dB from the muzzle blast of Oswald's Carcano (whereas Zapruder, at 275 feet, was subjected to only about 119 dB, and Phil Willis at 130 feet was subjected to about 125 dB), was so startled by the sound of the first shot at "Z-124" that she stopped filming altogether (her finger slipped off the button). Then she resumed filming a couple of seconds later and at approximately Z-222 jiggled her camera like all get out and stopped filming again. Interestingly, she doesn't jiggle her camera at right after the Z-313 head shot. Could it be due to her having become habituated to the nearby muzzle blasts? Seems logical to me.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/553546571932211/user/100003268844965

This reminds me of the acoustical study that convinced the HSCA that there was a second shooter and a fourth shot. Of course that study was never peer reviewed before the HSCA bought it hook, line, and sinker. Later that study was determined to be junk science. Why should we give Roselle and Scearce any more credibility. What are their credentials? Was their work peer reviewed? If not, it falls into the same junk science category as the Bolt, Beranek and Newman study that was presented to the HSCA.

My point is that it doesn‘t matter AT ALL whether the bullet passing near caused the hair to fly up. All that matters is that there is evidence (from Hickey and Kinney) that the sound of second shot coincided with that hair movement. The evidence that it struck JBC in the right armpit puts it pretty close to JFK at that point but it does not matter what caused the hair to move.

There is no evidence that a bullet struck JBC even close to Z271. That is the result of your FUBAR figuring.

In order to believe your scenario, I would have to believe that both JFK and JBC were hit by Oswald's first shot at a time both would have been obscured from Oswald's view by the pin oak tree in front of the TSBD. I would have to believe that neither reacted at that time to being hit. I would have to believe that JFK began to slowly lower his right arm and that neither man showed any reaction for 33 frames, almost 2 seconds, and then suddenly both flipped their arms upward rapidly at the same instant (Z226). I would have to believe that JBC after rapidly flipping his right arm up and down then dipped hard to his right, doubled over, then began twisting around dramatically until he was facing JFK at Z265. All of this movement was a reaction to his shallow wound in his left leg.

Now comes the really weird part. You expect us to believe that Oswald fired a shot at Z271 that hit JBC in the back, exited from his chest, and struck his wrist at frame Z271. This frame Z271:
https://assassinationresearch.com/zfilm/z271.jpg

Just how in the hell does Oswald shoot JBC in the back at Z271 and have the bullet exit from the right side of his chest and go on to fracture his wrist?
If that isn't unbelievable enough, you then have Oswald firing a precision headshot just 42 frames later at the bare minimum time a shooter could theoretically have done so. Am I really supposed to believe all that?