i agree it doesn't seem likely that a fragment from the head shot could have caused the concrete to chip, but without knowing the exit velocity of the fragments from the headshot and minimum velocity needed to chip the concrete, it's just a guess. I lean toward a ricochet from the first shot miss continuing down range and striking the curb.

"Herb Huskr" posted this on 22 August 2024 at the JFK Truth Be Told FB page:


There is some active discussion on another forum where I’m not a member about James Tague being hit, a curb mark, and what happened there. This post is about some modeling and simulation results made awhile back evaluating a possibility to explain that Tague incident.

I’ve not routinely discussed these details before because there is a back story that suggests that the modeling indicated how wrong I may have been with my initial gut feeling, and who wants to embarrass themselves by admitting they may have been misled by an erroneous gut-feeling bias?

The modeling was done a few of years back to try and prove this initial assumption:

A missing fragment from the z313 head shot could not have made it to Tague and created a shallow curb divot sending mortar/sand shards up and out, with some striking Tague in the cheek while he was standing nearby.

The envisioned scenario (initial gut feeling scenario) looked something like the following:

A disfigured lead, or lead with residual copper, bullet fragment flying forward escaped the limo from the third shot, at maybe 400 ft/sec, continued on to strike the curb with a compressive strike from a mostly horizontal trajectory, hitting at a reduced velocity around 200 ft/sec or so. This possibility was expected to be proven untenable and therefore likely wouldn’t happen.

Results:

Embarrassingly enough, the modeling predicted I would be wrong on every single account!

A fragment could have made it to Tague

The initial exit velocity would be more than twice the 400 ft/sec I was thinking

The final velocity would be even less than half the 200 ft/sec I was thinking

The angle at striking would be opposite, nearly vertical, instead of more horizontal like I thought

The curb strike likely presented a shearing force rather than the head-on compression force I expected

Talk about being wrong!

A crude curb-strike simulation was subsequently conducted to look at this because the predictions seemed so unusual.

Overall, the modeling and simulation indicated the scenario looked to be a real possibility, with a limo exiting fragment able to reach the curb by Tague and cause a spray of surface mortar that could hit him.

It is still possible the model is not accurate enough, or the fresh mark was not related to a bullet at all, but the modeling came up with numbers that were largely predictive of observations that others subsequently measured on such fragments, like what Lucian Haag found for fragment exit velocities in his simulated skull test shots experiments, and Carcano fragment ballistic coefficients.

Two options for base case trajectories for the incident are depicted on the attached graphs. [I couldn't copy-paste them here. -- T.G.]

Based on the modeling and simulation, I now favor that a rogue fragment from the head shot caused the Tague incident.

I will try to make a link to a summary with more details for those interested in ballistics, etc.

edit: the study details can be found here:

https://drive.google.com/.../1CcnCy17Hwqqw3zBCK7l.../view...

Harris's videos impressed me 18 years ago...Especially one subject I can't remember now...Maybe the Magic Bullet...Maybe Connally's bullet that dropped on the floor and the nurse picked up...Yeah, I think that was it...The tracing of that bullet that was taken to evidence and disappeared...A whole bullet...

I think the acronyms "CT" or "CT'er" and "LNT" or "LNT'er" are equally valid and useful, in the context of the JFKA.

The first official investigation into the JFKA, the WC, came down on the LNT-side, while the second official investigation, the HSCA-1979, came down on the CT side.

Caveat emptor, and draw your own conclusions. They will be as good as anyone else's. 

He used to have his own forum. I wasn't on it for long before he banned me..

That doesn't surprise me at all. If I remember right, he wouldn't let anybody comment on his YouTube channel. I found his videos to be great cures for insomnia.

There is still the Tague problem however. It doesn’t seem to be plausible that a  Z313 fragment could fly over the windshield and drop down if it had enough velocity to haves chipped the curb. Maybe a lead fragment traveling at 200 ft/ sec  can chip off  a small particle of concrete from the curb?   IDK.

i agree it doesn't seem likely that a fragment from the head shot could have caused the concrete to chip, but without knowing the exit velocity of the fragments from the headshot and minimum velocity needed to chip the concrete, it's just a guess. I lean toward a ricochet from the first shot miss continuing down range and striking the curb.