JFK Assassination Forum
JFK Assassination Discussion & Debate => JFK Assassination Discussion & Debate => Topic started by: Walt Blackadar on August 19, 2018, 12:16:38 AM
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Howard Donahue's theory of a Secret Service agent accidentally discharging his AR-15 is a theory that seems to fit many of the facts of this case. Donahue wasn't a conspiracy theorist. He was a ballistics expert who went a long way in proving that (1) it is physically possible to get off the shots in the timeframe and still be accurate and (2) showed how the Magic Bullet Theory could actually happen. His theories are often used to try to prove the Warren Commission's version. But of course he also disputed the fatal shot and instead indicated it came from the Secret Service car given the trajectory of the shot and the damage caused by a frangible bullet.
This theory also would be consistent with those witnesses who say they smelled gunpowder, those who saw the SS Agent (Hickey) holding a weapon, John Connolly's own testimony, the large number of witnesses who said they heard shots from the grassy knoll (due to acoustics this is what likely would happen from a shot within the motorcade) the actions of the SS in Parkland Hospital and a host of other discrepancies that have always been troubling.
I know it's troubling for some that this could have simply been a horrible accident in the end. I've heard this theory being outright dismissed but never based on the evidence. In fact I haven't found much online about this at all. So from a relatively newbish standpoint, what are the substantial holes in Donahue's theory (later backed by Colin McLaren) based on the known evidence of the assassination?
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Howard Donahue's theory of a Secret Service agent accidentally discharging his AR-15 is a theory that seems to fit many of the facts of this case. Donahue wasn't a conspiracy theorist. He was a ballistics expert who went a long way in proving that (1) it is physically possible to get off the shots in the timeframe and still be accurate and (2) showed how the Magic Bullet Theory could actually happen. His theories are often used to try to prove the Warren Commission's version. But of course he also disputed the fatal shot and instead indicated it came from the Secret Service car given the trajectory of the shot and the damage caused by a frangible bullet.
This theory also would be consistent with those witnesses who say they smelled gunpowder, those who saw the SS Agent (Hickey) holding a weapon, John Connolly's own testimony, the large number of witnesses who said they heard shots from the grassy knoll (due to acoustics this is what likely would happen from a shot within the motorcade) the actions of the SS in Parkland Hospital and a host of other discrepancies that have always been troubling.
I know it's troubling for some that this could have simply been a horrible accident in the end. I've heard this theory being outright dismissed but never based on the evidence. In fact I haven't found much online about this at all. So from a relatively newbish standpoint, what are the substantial holes in Donahue's theory (later backed by Colin McLaren) based on the known evidence of the assassination?
There is NOT a single photo that shows weapons in the hands of the Secret Service agents in the Queen Mary at the time of the murder.
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Howard Donahue's theory of a Secret Service agent accidentally discharging his AR-15 is a theory that seems to fit many of the facts of this case. Donahue wasn't a conspiracy theorist. He was a ballistics expert who went a long way in proving that (1) it is physically possible to get off the shots in the timeframe and still be accurate and (2) showed how the Magic Bullet Theory could actually happen. His theories are often used to try to prove the Warren Commission's version. But of course he also disputed the fatal shot and instead indicated it came from the Secret Service car given the trajectory of the shot and the damage caused by a frangible bullet.
This theory also would be consistent with those witnesses who say they smelled gunpowder, those who saw the SS Agent (Hickey) holding a weapon, John Connolly's own testimony, the large number of witnesses who said they heard shots from the grassy knoll (due to acoustics this is what likely would happen from a shot within the motorcade) the actions of the SS in Parkland Hospital and a host of other discrepancies that have always been troubling.
I know it's troubling for some that this could have simply been a horrible accident in the end. I've heard this theory being outright dismissed but never based on the evidence. In fact I haven't found much online about this at all. So from a relatively newbish standpoint, what are the substantial holes in Donahue's theory (later backed by Colin McLaren) based on the known evidence of the assassination?
He proposed that the fragments from the Oswald rifle found in the front of the limo were from a missed shot that hit the pavement. In 2000, histological analysis disclosed that the had human skin tissue attached.
Some reasons to dispute a CE-399-SBT can be found in this post I made: https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,1123.0.html (https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,1123.0.html)
There?s no reason to believe that anyone actually smelled gunpowder. The context of hearing gunfire would alter the manner in which the brain processes olfactory information, making exhaust fumes (for example) be perceived as gunpowder (predictive coding theory).
Donahue used the double-bang to evidence his idea, yet his model has 3 well spaced shots.
There?s other reasons to dispute the theory.
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In 2000, histological analysis disclosed that the had human skin tissue attached.
This is overstated. One fragment, CE 567, had what was described by NARA as four small pieces of possibly organic material, examination of which showed that the material consisted of human tissue in varying states of preservation. This was in 1999. As far as I know, the source of the tissue was never identified.
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First thing I even knew about it was from watching the "Smoking Gun" when it aired, interesting production but ultimately, when I saw it happen
https://youtu.be/s5_Fw-ewClc?t=1h24m13s (https://youtu.be/s5_Fw-ewClc?t=1h24m13s)
I knew, that's not what happened. I just couldn't buy it. Seeing Colin walking around the plaza eyeballng everything for the cameras didn't help.
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all i could think watching it was ' agent Gilligan'
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1. The Biggest Hole is the Bronson film. It shows, that at the time of the headshot, the AR-15 was not pointed at the President. Indeed, at that time, the Secret Service agent had not even stood up and held up the AR-15 rifle.
2. The implausibility of a theory, that a Secret Service Agent, actually fired a shot and no one saw it or recorded it on film.
3. The implausibility of a theory, that a Secret Service Agent, accidently fired a shot, and by random luck, even though he was about 20 feet away, the shot struck the President in the head. The odds of this are less than one in ten thousand. The surface area of a sphere with a radius of 20 feet is 4 * PI * 20**2 or about 5,000 square feet. The ?Target size is approximately a circle with a radius of 4 inches which is PI* .33**2 or about 0.35 feet, giving us odds of about 14,400 to one.
The Donahue Theory has about as many severe problems as any theory I have ever heard of. Max Holland?s ?The Lost Bullet? theory seems rock solid ? in comparison.
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Donohue was probably correct that the fatal head shot couldn?t have come from the Manilcher Carcano.
We?ll never know because Kennedy didn?t get a proper autopsy...
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This is overstated. One fragment, CE 567, had what was described by NARA as four small pieces of possibly organic material, examination of which showed that the material consisted of human tissue in varying states of preservation. This was in 1999. As far as I know, the source of the tissue was never identified.
What?s overstated? They couldn?t identify from whom the tissue originated, nor its anatomical generator(s). Dr. Zimmerman (the histopathologist) specifically said it was human skin and muscle tissue.
See 3:45 onwards
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Donohue was probably correct that the fatal head shot couldn?t have come from the Manilcher Carcano.
Donahue describes in his book and displays in the photo-section an HSCA ballistic gelatin test showing an AR-15 bullet disintegrating which he liken to the metal fragmentation seen in the Kennedy skull X-rays. By contrast, Donahue showed the photo from a similar test for a 6.5mm Carcano bullet; it remained intact.
The primary problem with all that (which eluded Donahue (a gunsmith expert) and McLaren (a crime and weapon expert) is that there was no simulant for hard tissue (ie: skull bone). The gelatin tests in Donahue's book simulated soft tissue only. McLaren's own test was to fire a 6.5mm bullet through a melon; again, no hard tissue simulant (the melon rind is not equal to skull bone tissue). Donahue and McLaren were certainly respected experts in their fields, just that one of their fields didn't include terminal ballistics.
This happens when people become wedded to a pet theory. Their judgment is clouded (see Mason Theory). Donahue was shown the Bronson film, disbelieved what they trying to explain to him, and still his publisher issued the paperback version. McLaren may even be worst; he must have seen the Bronson film more times than Donahue and had a few decades of having problems with the theory pointed out.
We?ll never know because Kennedy didn?t get a proper autopsy...
Yeah, sure.
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Donahue describes in his book and displays in the photo-section an HSCA ballistic gelatin test showing an AR-15 bullet disintegrating which he liken to the metal fragmentation seen in the Kennedy skull X-rays. By contrast, Donahue showed the photo from a similar test for a 6.5mm Carcano bullet; it remained intact.
The primary problem with all that (which eluded Donahue (a gunsmith expert) and McLaren (a crime and weapon expert) is that there was no simulant for hard tissue (ie: skull bone). The gelatin tests in Donahue's book simulated soft tissue only. McLaren's own test was to fire a 6.5mm bullet through a melon; again, no hard tissue simulant (the melon rind is not equal to skull bone tissue). Donahue and McLaren were certainly respected experts in their fields, just that one of their fields didn't include terminal ballistics.
This happens when people become wedded to a pet theory. Their judgment is clouded (see Mason Theory). Donahue was shown the Bronson film, disbelieved what they trying to explain to him, and still his publisher issued the paperback version. McLaren may even be worst; he must have seen the Bronson film more times than Donahue and had a few decades of having problems with the theory pointed out.
Yeah, sure.
Donohue was hired by the Warren Commission and didn?t begin his research as a Conspiracy Theorist.
In the process of conducting his research for the Warren Commission he concluded that some things with the Forensic Evidence didn?t add up.
The bullet that struck JFK?s skull didn?t behave like a Carcano bullet and the trajectory (based on the original entry wound location) didn?t trace back to the Book Depository.
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3. The implausibility of a theory, that a Secret Service Agent, accidently fired a shot, and by random luck, even though he was about 20 feet away, the shot struck the President in the head.
This particular rebuttal is silly. Accidents by definition are unlikely events. Looking at something after the fact and saying that it was unlikely for it to happen exactly that way isn't an argument that it couldn't have happened. If I get a million dice and throw them out on a huge table it will result in a particular series of numbers. The odds of that particular series coming up are vanishingly small, and yet there it is. If I put on a blindfold and fire a rifle, whatever specific spot the bullet hits is going to be just as likely or unlikely as any other spot you pick.
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What?s overstated?
Well, for one thing, you said "the[y] had human skin tissue attached", implying that it was more than one of the alleged limo fragments. Also, "proteinaceous bundle, non-textile origin" isn't the same thing as skin. Is there a detailed report available? Do you wonder why no further DNA testing was performed?
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This particular rebuttal is silly. Accidents by definition are unlikely events. Looking at something after the fact and saying that it was unlikely for it to happen exactly that way isn't an argument that it couldn't have happened. If I get a million dice and throw them out on a huge table it will result in a particular series of numbers. The odds of that particular series coming up are vanishingly small, and yet there it is. If I put on a blindfold and fire a rifle, whatever specific spot the bullet hits is going to be just as likely or unlikely as any other spot you pick.
Accidents by definition are unlikely events.
Yes....and Nearly everone in Deal;y Plaza knew it was no accident.....And yet I distinctly remember some early radio reporter referring to the coup d e'tat as an "accident"....
He said something like This is"Joe Jones" reporting from the scene of where this accident happened.
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You could drive a dump truck through the hole in Donahue's Theory . If the AR 15 had sent a round into the back of JFK's head then JFK's face would have had a huge blown out hole that was actually in the back of JFK's head . The so-called marksmen who were shooting at JFK from the rear did not make a Kill-Shot into JFKs head and that's why the shooters from the front had to make a frontal headshot to JFK's right temple which blew the back of his head out . There were way too many variables involved if the conspirators in the Assassination were going to use Oswald as a Lone Nut assassin of JFK from the rear . They got JFK's dead body out of Dallas and let " Move the Wound Humes " screw up their plan more than it had already been screwed up . I think "theirs" was to get a scam autopsy on JFK , and then get him in the ground as soon as possible . JFK was assassinated on Friday November 22nd 1963 and he was buried on Monday November 25th 1963 . 4 Days ? J. D. Tippit was murdered on Friday November 22nd 1963 and was buried the next day on Saturday November 23rd 1963 !!! Lee Harvey Oswald was shot down by Jack Ruby on Sunday and died the same day Sunday November 24th and LHO was buried the same day that JFK was buried , on Monday November the 25th , 1963 . Why were these 3 men put in the ground that fast ? JFK was shot and murdered and our Country took a real bad turn for the worst , that we have not recovered from to this day
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You could drive a dump truck through the hole in Donahue's Theory . If the AR 15 had sent a round into the back of JFK's head then JFK's face would have had a huge blown out hole that was actually in the back of JFK's head .
Donahue described an exit out the top-right side of the head.
(https://localtvwdaf.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/promo333264094.jpg)
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Donohue was hired by the Warren Commission and didn?t begin his research as a Conspiracy Theorist.
In the process of conducting his research for the Warren Commission he concluded that some things with the Forensic Evidence didn?t add up.
The bullet that struck JFK?s skull didn?t behave like a Carcano bullet and the trajectory (based on the original entry wound location) didn?t trace back to the Book Depository.
IIRC, Donohue didn't enter the picture until the CBS documentary in '67. And he was a gunsmith, not a "ballistics expert."
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Donahue described an exit out the top-right side of the head.
(https://localtvwdaf.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/promo333264094.jpg)
Seems that stretched-out limo (top view) is entering a Black Hole (Near the event horizon, where the CT standard of proof bar resides)
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From the Baltimore Sun:
Howard Charles Hinman Donahue, a retired gunsmith and nationally known ballistics expert who concluded that a Secret Service agent fired the bullet that killed President John F. Kennedy, died Thursday of complications of pneumonia at his Towson home. He was 77.
Mr. Donahue first came to national attention in 1967 when CBS television investigated the Warren Commission report and had several gunning experts test-fire the same make and model of the Mannlicher-Carcano Italian rifle that was used by Lee Harvey Oswald to shoot at Mr. Kennedy on Nov. 22, 1963, in Dallas.
Under nearly identical conditions, Mr. Donahue became the only man on record to re-create the three shots that occurred within the much-debated 6.5 seconds captured on the famed Zapruder film.
"Did Oswald get off a third shot? If he did, it could have gone wild, and the sound of it could have blended with the sound of the shot [fired] accidentally by a Secret Service man from the following car," Mr. Donahue told The Sunday Sun Magazine in a 1977 interview.
While agreeing with the Warren Commission that Oswald acted alone, Mr. Donahue said that an examination of the medical, ballistic and other evidence pointed to a bullet from the agent's AR-15 rifle that blew the president's skull apart.
"It is a ballistically unshakable fact that the fatal shot came from a position behind and to the left of the president. Since 1969, I have been unable to turn up evidence that shakes any part of my conclusion," he told the magazine.
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1999-12-21/news/9912210051_1_donahue-ballistics-expert-warren-commission
I don?t agree with the SS theory but I think Donohue is correct that head shot was fired by a different rifle from a different location to the President?s rear
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IIRC, Donohue didn't enter the picture until the CBS documentary in '67. And he was a gunsmith, not a "ballistics expert."
As we know, you have to be a urologist to be a real ballistics expert.
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From the Baltimore Sun:
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1999-12-21/news/9912210051_1_donahue-ballistics-expert-warren-commission
I don?t agree with the SS theory but I think Donohue is correct that head shot was fired by a different rifle from a different location to the President?s rear
I don't think that a Newspaper reporter is a particularly reliable judge of who is and who isn't an expert. Menninger tried to establish Donohue's bona-fides as a court-accepted expert witness. However, the only cases he cites where Donohue testified as an accepted expert, the expertise is in gunsmithy. If Menninger couldn't find an example where Donohue was accepted as a GSW expert, then we can safely assume that Donohue wasn't one.
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As we know, you have to be a urologist to be a real ballistics expert.
Lattimer bought a Carcano, a pile of WCC ammunition, did experiments then published the results in refereed journals. That's far more than Donohue ever managed, vis a vis gunshot wounds.
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Joe, regarding your sphere based on a 20 foot radius, I think you would have to take into account the fact that the SS agent was facing towards JFK and picked up the rifle from the floor in front of him. That would make it far more likely to fire to the front than the side and even less to the rear. So the odds can't be based on the full area of a sphere. Maybe a box extending 30 degrees to each side and 50 up and down. More up and down since he was said to have fallen back when the gun fired which overall moves the barrel upward.
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The hardest coincidence for me to accept is that this accident happened at the very same time an actual assassination was taking place. I know that the assassination attempt would have been the catalyst for the accidental shooting but it is still weird.