JFK Assassination Discussion & Debate => JFK Assassination Discussion & Debate => Topic started by: Charles Collins on July 05, 2026, 07:41:03 PM
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The following is a dialogue I had with Google AI. I just threw some distances out there without trying to be specifically accurate with the distances involved in Dealey Plaza. Anyway, I think this is interesting FWIW:
When firing a high powered rifle at a moving target, is it better to begin tracking the moving target before it gets into the firing zone or keep the rifle aimed at the start of the firing zone and wait for the target to appear where the rifle is aimed?
It is generally better to use the tracking method (acquiring the target early and moving the rifle to match its speed) rather than the ambush method. Tracking allows you to establish a smooth, steady swing and control your breathing, giving you the best chance of an accurate shot.
TRACT Optics +3
A breakdown of the techniques and when to use them highlights the differences:
1. Tracking (Sustained Lead)
The preferred method for open areas.
Game & Fish Magazine
How it works: You pick up the target early, move your rifle smoothly with it, establish a specific "lead" (aiming a set distance ahead of the target), and pull the trigger while maintaining that steady swing.
TRACT Optics +1
Advantages: It encourages excellent follow-through, accounts for changes in target speed, and allows for multiple or immediate follow-up shots.
Hunter Ed +1
When to use: Long-range shots, open environments, and targets moving continuously across your field of view.
Game & Fish Magazine +1
2. Ambush (The Waiting Game)
Commonly taught for military or tactical applications.
Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (.mil) +2
How it works: You place your crosshairs at a fixed point ahead of the target along its path, let the rifle remain stationary, and wait for the target to walk into your sight picture.
Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (.mil)
Advantages: Allows for a perfectly stable shooting platform without fighting muscle fatigue from swinging the rifle.
Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (.mil)
When to use: Short engagement windows, tight shooting lanes in thick brush, or when you are shooting from a very rigid, rested position (like prone with a bipod) where tracking is physically impossible.
Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (.mil) +1
If you can share a bit more about your setup, I can offer more tailored advice:
Are you hunting or target shooting?
Approximately what distance are you shooting?
Are you shooting from a bipod, standing, or freehand?
I am shooting from an elevation of 60-feet. The target moves underneath the shooting position at about 35-degrees down from horizontal, then begins to move almost directly away from the shooting position down a 3-degrees slope. The target moves at about 11-mph.
For this specific scenario, the optimal strategy is to wait and engage the target only after it transitions to moving directly away from your position down the 𝟑∘slope. Attempting to shoot during the initial phase creates severe tracking difficulties and geometric ballistics errors due to the extreme angular velocity right beneath your stand.
Avoid the steep phase When the target is underneath your elevated position at a 35-degree angle of depression, the slant range distance from you to the target is quite short. You can calculate this line-of-sight distance using the sine function:
R=60ftsin(35∘)≈104.6ft
𝑅=60ftsin(35∘)≈104.6ft
At roughly 105ft (or 35yards), a target moving at 11mph is traveling at 16.13ft/s. Because it is passing directly beneath you at such a close distance, its relative angular velocity is extremely high, meaning your rifle would have to swing violently down and around to track it.
Wikipedia +2
Evaluate the distance change
Shooting down at a sharp
35-degree angle introduces the Rifleman's Rule, which states that gravity only acts on the horizontal distance component of a bullet's path. The horizontal distance here is:
Dhorizontal=60ft×cot(35∘)≈85.7ft
𝐷horizontal=60ft×cot(35∘)≈85.7ft
Because 85.7ft (28.5yards) is shorter than the actual line-of-sight distance (35yards), the bullet experiences less gravitational drop relative to its path, causing the rifle to shoot high. Trying to calculate a severe vertical hold-under while simultaneously managing a chaotic, high-speed lateral swing drastically increases your room for error.
Track the straight line
The situation changes entirely as the target transitions into moving almost directly away down the mild
3-percent slope. At this point, the lateral movement across your scope reticle drops to practically zero. You no longer need to worry about leading the target horizontally or swinging your barrel rapidly. Instead, you can steady the rifle and track the target linearly along a predictable path.
Adjust for slight drop
Once the target moves linearly away, the steep angle ballistics problem vanishes because a
3-percent incline is practically flat. Your only true ballistics variable becomes standard bullet drop over distance. Because you are firing from a stable, rested position down a predictable lane, you can execute a controlled trigger squeeze with a clean follow-through.
✅ Final Conclusion
The optimal tactic is to let the target pass through the chaotic crossing phase directly beneath the platform, mounting your rifle and executing a clean tracking shot only when the target settles into moving directly away down the
3-percent slope.
If you want to fine-tune your shot placement, let me know:
What caliber and bullet weight are you using?
What distance is your rifle currently zeroed for?
What type of optic or reticle is mounted on the rifle?
The rifle has an inexpensive 4X scope and is zeroed for 100-feet. The distances to the target while it is moving away down the 3-degrees slope are between 180’ and 270’
At distances between 180 and 270 feet, you should aim dead-on (center mass) with your crosshairs, as a high-powered rifle bullet drops less than 1.5 inches relative to your 100-foot zero over these ultra-short ranges. Because the bullet trajectory remains incredibly flat across this window, your main focus should be on smooth tracking and account for a minor target lead.
1. Calculate Bullet Drop
High-powered rifle bullets travel exceptionally fast, typically between 2700ft/s and 3100ft/s. At these short distances (60 to 90 yards), gravity has very little time to pull the bullet downward:
At 180 feet (60 yards): The bullet impacts roughly 0.8 inches low relative to your 100-foot zero.
At 270 feet (90 yards): The bullet impacts roughly 1.4 inches low.
Since a standard hunting or tactical target's vital zone is 6 to 10 inches wide, a variance of less than 1.5 inches means you do not need to hold high or adjust your turrets.
2. Determine Scope Limitations
An inexpensive 4X fixed-power scope is ideal for this scenario. It provides a wide field of view, making it easy to keep a moving target in your sight picture.
Reticle Use: Standard duplex crosshairs work perfectly here. Avoid using complex elevation holdovers, which will only distract you in a dynamic shooting scenario.
Eye Alignment: Keep your head firmly pressed against the stock (cheek weld) to prevent parallax errors, which can easily throw your shot off by an inch or two in cheap optics.
3. Establish Target Lead
Even though the target is moving "almost directly away," it is traveling down a
3-percent slope while you are positioned 60 feet up. This creates a slight downward angle relative to your point of view.
Vertical Movement: As the target moves from 180 feet to 270 feet, it slowly drops lower in your scope's field of view.
Aiming Point: To compensate for both the tiny amount of bullet drop and the target's downward movement away from you, place your crosshairs on the lower edge of the center-mass vital zone (or slightly low on the body).
4. Apply the Tracking Technique
Since the target has transitioned out of the high-speed crossing phase beneath you, it is now moving at a highly predictable, linear pace:
The Motion: The target moves away at 11mph (16.13ft/s).
The Execution: Bring the crosshairs onto the target, smoothly follow its descent down the center of your vertical crosshair line, track its speed for one full second to stabilize your body, and squeeze the trigger smoothly without stopping the downward tracking motion of the rifle barrel.
✅ Final Target Engagement Rule
At distances between 180' and 270', aim directly at the center mass of the targetwith your 4X crosshairs, tracking its linear movement downward along the slope without holding over for distance.
To ensure absolute accuracy for your final shot placement, let me know:
Is the target the size of a large animal (like a deer), or something smaller?
Does your 4X scope have a simple crosshair, or does it feature a Mil-Dot / BDC reticle?
The target is 6.5” in diameter. The scope has a simple crosshairs reticle.
With a 6.5-inch target at distances between 180 and 270 feet, your margin for error is small. You must aim dead-center on the target. Because your maximum bullet drop is only about 1.4 inches, holding directly in the center ensures the bullet stays well within the 3.25-inch radius of the target's edge.
1. Account for Target Size
A 6.5-inch target leaves very little room for trajectory deviation.
Target Radius: The distance from the exact center to the edge is only 3.25 inches.
Bullet Drop Margin: Since your bullet drops a maximum of 1.4 inches at 270 feet, aiming dead-center will cause the bullet to strike slightly below the center point, but still safely inside the target's physical edge by nearly 2 inches.
2. Visualize the 4X Scope Picture
A simple crosshair reticle is highly effective for this shot because it does not clutter your view of a small target.
Target Appearance: At 4X magnification, a 6.5-inch target at 180 feet will appear relatively small in your scope, covering roughly 3 to 4 Minutes of Angle (MOA).
Reticle Placement: Center the intersection of the vertical and horizontal crosshairs precisely on the middle of the target. Do not attempt to "hold over" or guess the drop, as lifting your crosshairs above the target will completely block your view of it.
3. Manage the Tracking Geometry
Because you are 60 feet up and the target is moving away on a 3-degree slope, the target will appear to be slowly sinking downward in your scope's field of view.
Vertical Tracking: You will need to apply a very slow, continuous downward pressure to your rifle stock to keep the crosshairs centered as the target moves away.
The Danger of Subconscious Compensation: Because the target is moving down and away, your brain may tempt you to aim slightly high. Resist this urge. A high hold combined with the flat trajectory of a high-powered rifle will likely cause the bullet to fly completely over the top of a 6.5-inch target.
4. Execute the Shot
Stabilize: Ensure your rifle is supported by a solid rest (like a railing, sandbag, or bipod) to eliminate body tremor, which can easily cause a 3-inch miss at 90 yards.
Trigger Squeeze: Keep the crosshairs glued to the center of the 6.5-inch circle, maintain your slow downward tracking motion, and smoothly squeeze the trigger. Do not jerk the trigger when the target looks "perfect," or the rifle barrel will dip.
✅ Final Strategy
Place your simple crosshairs directly on the center of the 6.5-inch target, maintain a slow and smooth downward tracking motion to match its movement away from your elevated position, and execute a clean surprise break on the trigger.
If you want to ensure your rifle's physical setup is fully optimized for this shot, let me know:
Do you know the exact high-powered caliber (e.g., .223, .308, .30-06) you are firing?
What kind of shooting rest (sandbag, tree stand rail, bipod) are you using from that 60-foot height?
The rifle is an Italian Carcano 6.5mm. The shooting support is a cardboard box full of heavy books.
Given an Italian Carcano 6.5mm rifle and a cardboard box full of heavy books as your shooting rest, your mechanical setup requires specific handling to hit a 6.5-inch targetbetween 180 and 270 feet. The ballistics of the 6.5×52mm Carcano cartridge are incredibly flat at this range, meaning the mechanical stability of your improvised rest is your biggest variable.
Wikipedia
1. Optimize the Improvised Rest
A cardboard box filled with heavy books makes a surprisingly heavy and solid base, but cardboard compresses and flexes under pressure.
Avoid Hard Contact: Do not rest the bare wooden stock or barrel directly on the hard cardboard edge. It will cause the rifle to bounce away from the rest when fired, throwing your shot high.
Create a Cradle: Lay a soft cloth, jacket, or towel over the top of the box. Press the rifle's wooden stock down into it to create a soft, snug channel.
Isolate the Barrel: Ensure only the wooden handguard touches the padded box. Never let the metal barrel touch the box or padding, as pressure on the barrel will warp its harmonics and alter your point of impact.
2. Formulate Your Sight Picture
The Italian Carcano 6.5mm historically shoots a heavy, long round-nose bullet (around 160 grains) at roughly 2,000 to 2,300 feet per second. Because it is zeroed at 100 feet, the bullet trajectory remains tight:
Firearms News +1
Trajectory Check: At 180 feet, the bullet will drop roughly 1 inch below your point of aim. At 270 feet (90 yards), it will drop roughly 2 to 2.5 inches.
The 6.5-inch Target Hold: Because the target radius is 3.25 inches, a 2.5-inch drop at maximum distance means the bullet will still land inside the lower half of the target if you aim exactly dead-center. Do not attempt to hold high.
Be Aware of Barrel Variations: Standard commercial ammunition (like Prvi Partizan/PPU) often uses .264 diameter bullets. Because military Carcano barrels have wide .268 grooves, .264 ammo can suffer from loose accuracy. To counteract this potential internal spread, you cannot afford to introduce human error—your crosshairs must remain locked dead-center.
Hornady.media +1
3. Coordinate Your Tracking Mechanics
Because you are using a box rest, you cannot smoothly pan or pivot the rifle left and right without grinding the gun against the box. Fortunately, your chosen engagement zone allows for this:
The Vertical Alignment: Because the target is moving straight down a 3-degree slope directly away from you, you do not need horizontal panning. The target will move straight down your vertical crosshair line.
The Technique: Set the rifle up on the box so it is perfectly aligned with the target's linear path. As the target moves away, do not lift the gun. Instead, apply a very gentle, steady downward pressure with your cheek and trigger hand to slide the crosshairs down the slope with the target.
✅ Step-by-Step Execution
Pad the book box with a jacket, resting only the rifle's wooden forearm on it.
Wait for the target to pass beneath you and enter the straight-away lane.
Glue the intersection of your simple 4X crosshairs directly on the center of the 6.5-inch circle.
Apply slow downward pressure to track its movement away from your 60-foot height.
Smoothly squeeze the trigger, allowing the heavy book box to fully absorb the recoil.
If you want to account for every mechanical quirk of this historic rifle, let me know:
Is your commercial ammunition loaded with flat-base round nose bullets or spitzer (pointed) bullets?
Does the box rest allow you to get your body comfortably prone, or are you hunched over a railing?
The ammunition is flat-base round nose bullets and is sized properly for the rifle. The shooting position is sitting on another box with the off-hand resting on the support box and also supporting the forearm of the rifle. It is a relatively comfortable position.
This is an excellent shooting setup. Properly sized flat-base round nose bullets solve the primary accuracy issues inherent to old Carcano military barrels, and your comfortable sitting position provides high stability.
Since you are using your off-hand to cushion and support the rifle forearm against the box, you have created a highly functional human-mechanical pivot. You can execute an incredibly precise tracking shot using the following specific adjustments:
1. Optimize the Off-Hand Pivot Technique
Instead of resting the rifle directly on the hard box, using your hand as a buffer is the ideal way to prevent barrel jump and absorb vibrations.
The Grip: Rest your off-hand palm-up on the towel or padding covering the book box. Let the wooden forearm of the Carcano lay flat in your palm. Do not tightly grip the forearm; let the weight of the rifle push your hand naturally into the box.
The Pivot Motion: As the target moves straight away from you down the slope, do not lift or push the rifle. Simply squeeze or relax your off-hand fingers, or slowly pull your elbow backward slightly. This micro-adjustment lowers the muzzle smoothly without grinding wood against the cardboard box.
2. Trust the Flat-Base Ballistics
Your properly sized round nose ammunition ensures the bullet tightly seals against the Carcano's progressive-twist rifling, drastically tightening your group sizes compared to standard commercial .264 ammo.
The Drop: At 180 feet, the slow but highly stable 160-grain round nose will be about 1 inch low. At 270 feet, it will be roughly 2.2 inches low.
The Hold: Because a 6.5-inch target gives you 3.25 inches of clearance from the center to the edge, keep your crosshairs placed dead-center on the target at all distances. The inherent drop will land the bullet in the lower half of the circle without risking a total miss over the top.
3. Handle the Carcano Trigger
Military Carcano rifles feature a distinct, long two-stage trigger. Knowing how to stage it is critical for a small 6.5-inch target:
Stage the Trigger Early: As the target enters the straight-away zone, take up the loose initial slack (the first stage) until you hit a firm "wall."
Track and Break: Maintain the slow downward tracking speed with your off-hand pivot while holding that wall. Once your
crosshairs are perfectly centered and stable, apply the final crisp pressure to break the second stage.
✅ Final Execution Checklist
Sit comfortably, letting the heavy book box hold the weight of your off-hand and the rifle's forearm.
Ensure no part of the metal barrel or receiver touches the box or your hand.
Pre-stage the Carcano trigger to its second-stage wall as the target stabilizes into the linear path.
Keep the simple 4X crosshairs exactly dead-center on the 6.5-inch target.
Slow down your breathing, follow the target's subtle downward drift with your hand-pivot, and cleanly break the shot.
To finalize your strategy, consider these details:
Do you know if your rifle is a short carbine (like the M91/38) or the full-length M91 infantry rifle?
Is the target moving at a perfectly constant 11-mph speed, or does it ever pause or hesitate?
The rifle is a short carbine and is the M91/38 model. The target is moving relatively constant but slows down just before the final shot.
The Carcano M91/38 Cavalry or Troop Special (TS) carbine has a short barrel (typically around 17.7 inches). This compact profile makes it incredibly fast to handle but also creates unique quirks regarding muzzle blast, recoil, and sight radius when firing from your seated position.
The fact that the target slows down right before the final shot is your single greatest tactical advantage. It means you can transition from dynamic tracking to a highly precise, nearly static shot.
1. Account for the Carbine's Short Barrel
Because the M91/38 carbine has a much shorter barrel than the full-length infantry rifle, its ballistics change slightly:
Velocity and Drop: The shorter barrel reduces muzzle velocity by roughly 100 to 150 feet per second. This means the heavy 160-grain round-nose bullet will drop slightly faster. At 270 feet, expect the bullet to land roughly 2.8 inches low (instead of 2.2 inches).
The Margin: Since a 6.5-inch target leaves you 3.25 inches of clearance from the center to the bottom edge, a 2.8-inch drop means you are cutting it very close to the bottom rim.
The Correction: When the target slows down near the maximum 270-foot distance, lift your crosshairs from the exact center to the upper third of the 6.5-inch target. This micro-adjustment guarantees the bullet drops cleanly into the dead center of the target.
2. Capitalize on the Target's Deceleration
When a target slows down, shooters often make the mistake of over-correcting and swinging past it.
The Transition: As you track the target down the 3-degree slope, your off-hand pivot will be applying slow downward pressure. The moment you perceive the target slowing down, gently halt your downward tracking motion.
The "Trap": Let the target slow down and settle directly into your crosshairs. Because its forward and downward momentum is dropping, your sight picture will stabilize significantly.
3. Manage Carbine Recoil on an Improvised Rest
Short carbines produce a much sharper recoil impulse and a louder muzzle blast than long rifles.
Muzzle Jump: Light carbines want to jump upward violently upon firing. If your off-hand loses concentration, the barrel will flip up before the slow-moving 6.5mm bullet completely exits the muzzle, causing a high miss.
The Lock-In: Keep your seated posture tight. Firmly press the buttstock into your shoulder pocket and rest your cheek solidly on the wooden stock comb. Your off-hand must maintain firm, steady downward pressure against the book box to clamp the forearm down and neutralize the muzzle jump.
✅ Final Shot Sequence for the M91/38
Track the target down the slope with your crosshairs centered, holding the Carcano trigger at its first-stage wall.
Watch for the target to decelerate. As it slows down near the 270-foot mark, ease off your downward tracking speed.
Shift your crosshair placement slightly upward, aiming at the upper third of the 6.5-inch circle to offset the carbine's velocity loss.
With the rifle locked firmly into your shoulder and your off-hand steadying the forearm on the box, execute a crisp, clean squeeze through the second stage.
To ensure absolute certainty, consider these final details:
Is your 4X scope mounted on a side-mount that offsets it from the center of the barrel, or is it scout-mounted directly over the center of the barrel?
Does the target stop completely after slowing down, or does it continue moving at a crawl?
The scope is side-mount. The target does not stop completely. The slow-down of the target is unexpected.
The side-mount scope changes your horizontal aiming calculus completely. Because the scope sits offset to the side of the barrel (usually to the left on a Carcano to allow the bolt handle to clear and clip-loading to function), your bullet path and your line of sight cross at a single point.
Because the target's deceleration is unexpected, you must rely on a reactive trigger technique rather than a deliberate, slow setup.
1. Account for the Side-Mount Offset
With a side-mounted scope, the rifle barrel fires slightly to one side of the crosshairs at close range, crosses the line of sight at your zero distance (100 feet), and then begins drifting to the opposite side as the distance increases out to 270 feet.
The Drift: Over a 270-foot distance, this horizontal crossover can cause your bullet to drift 0.5 to 1.0 inch off-center to the right (or left, depending on which side your scope is mounted).
The Correction: Combined with the 2.8-inch vertical bullet drop, your bullet will impact the lower-right (or lower-left) quadrant of the target. To counter this, you must hold the crosshairs on the upper-opposite corner of the target. If the scope is mounted on the left side of the receiver, aim at the upper-left quadrant of the 6.5-inch target when it is far away.
2. React to the Unexpected Slow-Down
When a target slows down unexpectedly, your muscle memory will naturally want to keep tracking at the old speed, causing your crosshairs to swing completely off the front or bottom of the target.
Do Not Force a Stop: Trying to suddenly "freeze" your rifle when you notice the change will cause you to jerk the gun.
The Snap-Shot Technique: Instead of trying to match its new, slower speed perfectly, let your crosshairs naturally glide up to the upper portion of the target as it slows down. The moment the crosshairs reach your revised aiming point (the upper quadrant), immediately break the second stage of the trigger. Treat it like a fluid, continuous motion rather than trying to hold a static position.
3. Maintain Seated Stability
Because the deceleration is a surprise, your body will want to tense up, which induces muscle tremors and ruins a sitting position.
Keep Your Weight on the Box: Do not lean backward or pull your cheek off the stock in surprise. Keep your off-hand heavy on the book box, using it to absorb the rifle's forearm weight.
The Follow-Through: Because the target is still crawling forward, you must maintain a tiny amount of forward pressure on the gun even as you pull the trigger. Never stop moving the gun before the shot breaks.
✅ Final Revised Checklist for the Side-Mount & Slow-Down
Track the target normally as it moves away, taking up the first-stage trigger slack.
The moment you notice the target unexpectedly slowing down, do not stop your rifle.
Let your crosshairs naturally glide to the upper-left (or upper-right, opposite your scope mount) quadrant of the 6.5-inch circle.
As the crosshairs sweep into that upper corner, smoothly execute a decisive, crisp trigger squeeze through the second stage.
Keep your cheek welded to the M91/38 stock and your off-hand anchored to the box until you hear the impact or see the hit through the scope.
To wrap everything up perfectly, consider these final environmental adjustments:
Is your side-mount scope on the left side or the right side of the receiver?
Are you shooting in bright daylight, or a low-light environment like dawn or dusk where the crosshairs might blur?
The scope is on the left side of the receiver. Shooting in bright daylight.
With the scope mounted on the left side of the receiver and shooting in bright daylight, you have the best possible visibility to execute this shot. Bright daylight ensures your 4X crosshairs will stand out sharply against the 6.5-inch target, eliminating any risk of losing your sight picture during the unexpected slowdown.
Because the scope is on the left, the barrel sits slightly to the right of your line of sight. This means the bullet travels forward, crosses the reticle path at your 100-foot zero, and continues drifting slightly to the right as it moves out toward 270 feet.
🎯 The Perfect Hold-Over Placement
To guarantee a center hit on the 6.5-inch target at maximum distance (taking into account the 2.8-inch carbine bullet drop and the subtle rightward side-mount drift), you must use a specific off-center hold:
Where to Aim: Place your crosshairs precisely in the upper-left quadrant of the 6.5-inch target (roughly halfway between the exact center and the top-left edge).
The Result: When the rifle fires, the bullet will drop downward and drift slightly to the right of your crosshairs, landing perfectly in the dead center of the target.
[ 6.5" TARGET ]
/ .---. \
/ / ╳ / \ <-- Aim HERE (Upper-Left)
| '---' |
| ○ | <-- Bullet impacts HERE (Center)
\ /
\ /
'-------------'
⚡ The Real-Time Execution Plan
Anchor Your Base: Sit firmly on your box, keeping your off-hand heavy and steady on the book-filled support box to cushion the Carcano forearm.
Prep the Trigger: As the target enters the straight-away path, pull through the Carcano’s first-stage trigger slack until you feel it hit the firm "wall."
React to the Slowdown: The moment you perceive the target unexpectedly slowing down, do not freeze. Gently let your crosshairs glide up to that upper-left quadrantof the circle.
Surprise the Break: As soon as the crosshair intersection settles on the upper-left area, decisively squeeze through the second stage of the trigger without stopping the tracking motion.
Drive Through Recoil: Because it is a short M91/38 carbine, hold your cheek weld tight against the stock and keep your hand pinned to the box to prevent muzzle jump until the shot is complete.
If you want to be fully prepared for any other variables on the day of the shoot, let me know:
Is there any noticeable wind blowing across your shooting lane?
Are there any physical obstructions (like tree branches) along the target's path down the 3-degree slope
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My first reaction before reading the in depth analysis is that tracking is the preferred method. The reason I say that is because aiming at a fixed point and firing as the target crosses that fixed point is going to encourage pulling the trigger rather than a steady squeeze of the trigger. I was taught not to force the gun to fire but squeeze and let it fire when the proper trigger pressure is reached. Pulling the trigger tends to cause a shot low and to the right for a right handed shooter.
I'm sure there are highly skilled shooters who can use the other methods, but for most shooters, tracking the target while putting a slow squeeze on the trigger is going to produce the best results.
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My first reaction before reading the in depth analysis is that tracking is the preferred method. The reason I say that is because aiming at a fixed point and firing as the target crosses that fixed point is going to encourage pulling the trigger rather than a steady squeeze of the trigger. I was taught not to force the gun to fire but squeeze and let it fire when the proper trigger pressure is reached. Pulling the trigger tends to cause a shot low and to the right for a right handed shooter.
I'm sure there are highly skilled shooters who can use the other methods, but for most shooters, tracking the target while putting a slow squeeze on the trigger is going to produce the best results.
The answer to the first question tends to agree with your idea. However, AI asks for more specific information several times and when given enough information the answers change accordingly. That’s part of what makes the lengthy dialogue interesting.
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The answer to the first question tends to agree with your idea. However, AI asks for more specific information several times and when given enough information the answers change accordingly. That’s part of what makes the lengthy dialogue interesting.
CoPilot is my AI app and it's a bit lazy. I can never remember it asking follow up questions and doesn't seem to vet the information it does retrieve. Once it even cited one of my own answers on this forum as a source. It was nice to know that source agreed with the point I was trying to make.
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The answer to the first question tends to agree with your idea. However, AI asks for more specific information several times and when given enough information the answers change accordingly. That’s part of what makes the lengthy dialogue interesting.
An interesting AI dialogue. It may be using a military training manual as one of its sources. When you provided the details there was no doubt expressed about using the ambush wait approach:
“ For this specific scenario, the optimal strategy is to wait and engage the target only after it transitions to moving directly away from your position down the 𝟑∘slope. Attempting to shoot during the initial phase creates severe tracking difficulties and geometric ballistics errors due to the extreme angular velocity right beneath your stand.
Avoid the steep phase. When the target is underneath your elevated position at a 35-degree angle of depression, the slant range distance from you to the target is quite short.”
Oswald knew what he was doing.
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An interesting AI dialogue. It may be using a military training manual as one of its sources. When you provided the details there was no doubt expressed about using the ambush wait approach:
“ For this specific scenario, the optimal strategy is to wait and engage the target only after it transitions to moving directly away from your position down the 𝟑∘slope. Attempting to shoot during the initial phase creates severe tracking difficulties and geometric ballistics errors due to the extreme angular velocity right beneath your stand.
Avoid the steep phase. When the target is underneath your elevated position at a 35-degree angle of depression, the slant range distance from you to the target is quite short.”
Oswald knew what he was doing.
The only thing Oswald knew was that he had a better chance of hitting JFK by taking a shot before he passed under the tree than if he didn't take that shot. He would still have the opportunity to shoot JFK after he passed the tree so taking the early shot, even if it was a very difficult one, actually improved his odds. I used to play bridge and any experienced bridge player knows that once you map out original strategy for making your contract, you look for plays that can give you an extra chance if you primary strategy doesn't work out. That's essentially what Oswald did. His best chance to score a fatal hit was after JFK was moving down range with little angular velocity but he gave himself an extra chance by taking an early shot.
Given the fact Oswald succeeded in what he was trying to do, I see no sense in second guessing his choices.
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An interesting AI dialogue. It may be using a military training manual as one of its sources. When you provided the details there was no doubt expressed about using the ambush wait approach:
“ For this specific scenario, the optimal strategy is to wait and engage the target only after it transitions to moving directly away from your position down the 𝟑∘slope. Attempting to shoot during the initial phase creates severe tracking difficulties and geometric ballistics errors due to the extreme angular velocity right beneath your stand.
Avoid the steep phase. When the target is underneath your elevated position at a 35-degree angle of depression, the slant range distance from you to the target is quite short.”
Oswald knew what he was doing.
Yes, LHO executed a very good plan.
I created a model of the sniper’s nest and sat in it with a similar sized rifle aiming at targets located at the proper angles. An intentional early first shot makes no sense to me. That’s just one reason I think that an early first shot must have been an accidental discharge.
One aspect that Google Ai mentioned is the offset mounting of the scope. If the offset-to-the-left scope was zeroed-in for 100-feet for the Walker attempt, and remained that way on 11/22/63, then Google AI’s point about the furthest shot point of impact being slightly to the right of the point of aim might be the reason the bullet struck JFK slightly to the right side of the back of his head. I already knew that this is an issue with offset mounting of a scope, but hadn’t applied that knowledge to the JFK assassination until I read that AI point today.
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Yes, LHO executed a very good plan.
I created a model of the sniper’s nest and sat in it with a similar sized rifle aiming at targets located at the proper angles. An intentional early first shot makes no sense to me. That’s just one reason I think that an early first shot must have been an accidental discharge.
One aspect that Google Ai mentioned is the offset mounting of the scope. If the offset-to-the-left scope was zeroed-in for 100-feet for the Walker attempt, and remained that way on 11/22/63, then Google AI’s point about the furthest shot point of impact being slightly to the right of the point of aim might be the reason the bullet struck JFK slightly to the right side of the back of his head. I already knew that this is an issue with offset mounting of a scope, but hadn’t applied that knowledge to the JFK assassination until I read that AI point today.
We've had this discussion before. Even if Oswald only had a 5% chance of hitting his target, that's a better chance than if he didn't take the shot at all. He still had the later shots if he missed with that shot.
Oswald set up a very effective perch to fire down Elm St. I think that was his primary plan all along. But as his target approached on Houston St., I would think he would start contemplating whether taking that early shot made sense. He only had a limited amount of time to make the decision. While neither of us can know for sure what Oswald's intention was on the first shot, I can certainly understand why he would decide to take that awkward shot.
I didn't go to the trouble of creating a model of the sniper's nest but I did use a few objects to kinda sorta give me an idea the challenges that first shot would have presented in addition to the angular velocity. I have a Sears Ted Williams Model 53 .30-06 bolt action rifle which is actually a Winchester Model 70 which they slapped the Williams name on it back in the day when Sears hired Ted Williams to endorse their line of hunting and fishing equipment. Sears did that with lots of brand name products that they sold under the Sears name. It has a top mounted scope. I don't know how the trigger pull compares with the Carcano but it seems to me with my rifle, it would take a pretty good jolt for me to accidentally fire the rifle. I would think that if Oswald didn't intend on taking the early shot, there would be no reason for him to move around much. I think it would make more sense to set up in his intended shooting position and begin tracking JFK in his scope as he was passing under the tree. I don't see an early accidental discharge to be likely if he was doing that.
I'm curious as to what the minimum distance setting Oswald's scope allowed. I wonder if it could even be adjusted down to 100 yards. Do you have any information on that?
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Yes, LHO executed a very good plan.
I created a model of the sniper’s nest and sat in it with a similar sized rifle aiming at targets located at the proper angles. An intentional early first shot makes no sense to me. That’s just one reason I think that an early first shot must have been an accidental discharge.
I would agree that a missed first shot makes no sense unless it was accidental. Although it still makes no sense why he would not be in position with his rifle pointing down Elm St. a few seconds before the car was in position for the first shot. But if there was evidence of a sudden movement of the rifle between the first and second shots, that would be compelling evidence that the first shot was made at a very different direction than the last two.
What do you make, then, of the evidence from the witnesses who saw the rifle pointing out of the window after the first shot: Howard Brennan, Amos Euins, James Worrell and Mrs. Cabell? None of them mentioned seeing any change in rifle position.
Mrs. Cabell said she looked up upon hearing the first shot and saw something sticking out of the window. Amos Euins said he saw a metal rod sticking out of the window before the shots and looked up after hearing the first shot and saw a man with a rifle in the same window and watched him fire the last two shots. Howard Brennan looked up after the first shot and saw the rifle in the window and saw him fire the last two shots and calmly withdraw the rifle from the window. James Worrell looked up at the window after hearing the first shot and saw the end of the barrel and a few inches of the wooden stock sticking out of a window and watched as it fired again.
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We've had this discussion before. Even if Oswald only had a 5% chance of hitting his target, that's a better chance than if he didn't take the shot at all. He still had the later shots if he missed with that shot.
Oswald set up a very effective perch to fire down Elm St. I think that was his primary plan all along. But as his target approached on Houston St., I would think he would start contemplating whether taking that early shot made sense. He only had a limited amount of time to make the decision. While neither of us can know for sure what Oswald's intention was on the first shot, I can certainly understand why he would decide to take that awkward shot.
I didn't go to the trouble of creating a model of the sniper's nest but I did use a few objects to kinda sorta give me an idea the challenges that first shot would have presented in addition to the angular velocity. I have a Sears Ted Williams Model 53 .30-06 bolt action rifle which is actually a Winchester Model 70 which they slapped the Williams name on it back in the day when Sears hired Ted Williams to endorse their line of hunting and fishing equipment. Sears did that with lots of brand name products that they sold under the Sears name. It has a top mounted scope. I don't know how the trigger pull compares with the Carcano but it seems to me with my rifle, it would take a pretty good jolt for me to accidentally fire the rifle. I would think that if Oswald didn't intend on taking the early shot, there would be no reason for him to move around much. I think it would make more sense to set up in his intended shooting position and begin tracking JFK in his scope as he was passing under the tree. I don't see an early accidental discharge to be likely if he was doing that.
I'm curious as to what the minimum distance setting Oswald's scope allowed. I wonder if it could even be adjusted down to 100 yards. Do you have any information on that?
I'm curious as to what the minimum distance setting Oswald's scope allowed. I wonder if it could even be adjusted down to 100 yards. Do you have any information on that?
LHO’s scope is a very simple scope. I have a somewhat similar one mounted on a precision air rifle that is zeroed-in for about 40-feet. The target is far from in sharp focus at that distance. But it isn’t necessary for the target to be in sharp focus in order to hit it. See the group of five shots in the image below. I shot these just recently after not shooting for about six months.
LHO was very frugal. He paid extra dollars for the scope. And it appears he intended to use it for the attempt on Walker. Based on the FBI’s tests at 100-yards, the scope was only slightly off at 100-yards when they tried to zero it at that distance. At 100-feet (1/3 of 100-yards), it appears to me that there should be no problem with zeroing the scope.
(https://i.vgy.me/mApA6N.jpg)
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I would agree that a missed first shot makes no sense unless it was accidental. Although it still makes no sense why he would not be in position with his rifle pointing down Elm St. a few seconds before the car was in position for the first shot. But if there was evidence of a sudden movement of the rifle between the first and second shots, that would be compelling evidence that the first shot was made at a very different direction than the last two.
What do you make, then, of the evidence from the witnesses who saw the rifle pointing out of the window after the first shot: Howard Brennan, Amos Euins, James Worrell and Mrs. Cabell? None of them mentioned seeing any change in rifle position.
Mrs. Cabell said she looked up upon hearing the first shot and saw something sticking out of the window. Amos Euins said he saw a metal rod sticking out of the window before the shots and looked up after hearing the first shot and saw a man with a rifle in the same window and watched him fire the last two shots. Howard Brennan looked up after the first shot and saw the rifle in the window and saw him fire the last two shots and calmly withdraw the rifle from the window. James Worrell looked up at the window after hearing the first shot and saw the end of the barrel and a few inches of the wooden stock sticking out of a window and watched as it fired again.
Although it still makes no sense why he would not be in position with his rifle pointing down Elm St. a few seconds before the car was in position for the first shot.
The Hughes film shows the window as the limo is rounding the sharp corner onto Elm Street. This is just a few seconds before the limo would appear beyond the tree into the kill zone. There is no discernible rifle or shooter in the window. I suggest that LHO simply stayed sitting upright and therefore out of sight of the Secret Service agents until the very last seconds. Then he simply needed to raise the rifle from his lap and assume his shooting position. This would take only a second or two. It is during this time and motion that I believe an accidental discharge could have happened (due to interference from the window box or the vertical pipe adjacent to the window).
What do you make, then, of the evidence from the witnesses who saw the rifle pointing out of the window after the first shot: Howard Brennan, Amos Euins, James Worrell and Mrs. Cabell? None of them mentioned seeing any change in rifle position.
I underlined “after the first shot” for emphasis. The change in rifle position may have happened before they looked up there. Plus, if any of them did look up in time, the amount of change in the rifle position may not have been discernible from their positions and/or a detail that they didn’t remember.
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We've had this discussion before. Even if Oswald only had a 5% chance of hitting his target, that's a better chance than if he didn't take the shot at all. He still had the later shots if he missed with that shot.
Oswald set up a very effective perch to fire down Elm St. I think that was his primary plan all along. But as his target approached on Houston St., I would think he would start contemplating whether taking that early shot made sense. He only had a limited amount of time to make the decision. While neither of us can know for sure what Oswald's intention was on the first shot, I can certainly understand why he would decide to take that awkward shot.
I didn't go to the trouble of creating a model of the sniper's nest but I did use a few objects to kinda sorta give me an idea the challenges that first shot would have presented in addition to the angular velocity. I have a Sears Ted Williams Model 53 .30-06 bolt action rifle which is actually a Winchester Model 70 which they slapped the Williams name on it back in the day when Sears hired Ted Williams to endorse their line of hunting and fishing equipment. Sears did that with lots of brand name products that they sold under the Sears name. It has a top mounted scope. I don't know how the trigger pull compares with the Carcano but it seems to me with my rifle, it would take a pretty good jolt for me to accidentally fire the rifle. I would think that if Oswald didn't intend on taking the early shot, there would be no reason for him to move around much. I think it would make more sense to set up in his intended shooting position and begin tracking JFK in his scope as he was passing under the tree. I don't see an early accidental discharge to be likely if he was doing that.
I'm curious as to what the minimum distance setting Oswald's scope allowed. I wonder if it could even be adjusted down to 100 yards. Do you have any information on that?
He still had the later shots if he missed with that shot.
I doubt that LHO would have been thinking that way. I suspect LHO might have thought he had only one guaranteed shot before either JFK ducked down out of sight or the Secret Service reacted to cover JFK and/or started shooting back at LHO. I don’t believe LHO would have anticipated that most people would have mistaken the first shot for a motorcycle backfire and not reacted immediately.
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He still had the later shots if he missed with that shot.
I doubt that LHO would have been thinking that way. I suspect LHO might have thought he had only one guaranteed shot before either JFK ducked down out of sight or the Secret Service reacted to cover JFK and/or started shooting back at LHO. I don’t believe LHO would have anticipated that most people would have mistaken the first shot for a motorcycle backfire and not reacted immediately.
Oswald had only seconds to decide whether to take that early shot and the choice he made isn't going to necessarily be the one you would have made had you been in his situation. The only risk to taking that first shot is it would have alerted the protection detail and if they had reacted quicker than they did, Oswald might not have had a clear follow up shot. Again, Oswald could very well have made a different judgement call than you would have. He knew he had four rounds in his rifle and a limited time to fire them so he might very well have decided to get in as many shots as possible in the limited window of time available to him.
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Just putting myself in Oswald's head, as I am wont to do, I believe the thought process more likely would have been "I may only get one shot at this, so I'm going to make it the best one I can." I don't picture a former Marine sharpshooter taking a "what the hell, maybe I'll get lucky" first shot and alerting the entire world to his location.
This seems like typical ad hoc reasoning: I think he missed an early first shot, ergo this is what he was thinking and what happened. Common sense - oops, that's the other thread - says my scenario is more likely.
I thought his cheapie scope was nonadjustable - no?
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Oswald had only seconds to decide whether to take that early shot and the choice he made isn't going to necessarily be the one you would have made had you been in his situation. The only risk to taking that first shot is it would have alerted the protection detail and if they had reacted quicker than they did, Oswald might not have had a clear follow up shot. Again, Oswald could very well have made a different judgement call than you would have. He knew he had four rounds in his rifle and a limited time to fire them so he might very well have decided to get in as many shots as possible in the limited window of time available to him.
Again, Oswald could very well have made a different judgement call than you would have.
Yes, and the same applies to your thinking.
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What do you make, then, of the evidence from the witnesses who saw the rifle pointing out of the window after the first shot: Howard Brennan, Amos Euins, James Worrell and Mrs. Cabell? None of them mentioned seeing any change in rifle position.
I underlined “after the first shot” for emphasis. The change in rifle position may have happened before they looked up there. Plus, if any of them did look up in time, the amount of change in the rifle position may not have been discernible from their positions and/or a detail that they didn’t remember.
Mrs. Cabell did not describe much delay between hearing the shot and seeing the rifle. She said the first shot sounded as the car began its turn at the intersection. She said she was facing the TSBD and upon hearing the first shot looked directly up and saw the rifle. The Cabell car is behind the VP security car and it has yet to appear at the intersection when the zfilm last shows the intersection at z193.
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Mrs. Cabell did not describe much delay between hearing the shot and seeing the rifle. She said the first shot sounded as the car began its turn at the intersection. She said she was facing the TSBD and upon hearing the first shot looked directly up and saw the rifle. The Cabell car is behind the VP security car and it has yet to appear at the intersection when the zfilm last shows the intersection at z193.
(SIGH)
Here we go with another one of Andrew's "So-and-so said" observations, as if that establishes something as a fact. The truth is that a lot of witnesses in Dealey Plaza gave us lots of versions of what happened. Some of them were right and some of them were wrong. Andrew seems unwilling to look beyond the witness statements to figure out who was right and who was wrong. He developed a crazy scenario years ago that makes no sense and ever since has been cherry picking the witness observations to find support for his scenario. He then takes the forensic evidence and tries to force fit it to his scenario. It is a completely bassackwards approach to the evidence which has yielded his bassackwards conclusion. He will remain hopelessly lost in learning the truth of the JFKA and his silly scenario, which only he believes, will die with him, even if that's fifty years from now.
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(SIGH)
Here we go with another one of Andrew's "So-and-so said" observations, as if that establishes something as a fact.
I never said that Mrs. Cabell’s evidence was a fact. But it is evidence that fits with a first shot too late and with the rifle in the wrong position for a missed first shot. You don’t seem to want to acknowledge that at every turn the witnesses fit together in a way that is completely inconsistent with a missed first shot.
The truth is that a lot of witnesses in Dealey Plaza gave us lots of versions of what happened. Some of them were right and some of them were wrong. Andrew seems unwilling to look beyond the witness statements to figure out who was right and who was wrong. He developed a crazy scenario years ago that makes no sense and ever since has been cherry picking the witness observations to find support for his scenario. He then takes the forensic evidence and tries to force fit it to his scenario. It is a completely bassackwards approach to the evidence which has yielded his bassackwards conclusion. He will remain hopelessly lost in learning the truth of the JFKA and his silly scenario, which only he believes, will die with him, even if that's fifty years from now.
There are at least 80 witnesses who provided evidence that is entirely inconsistent with a missed first shot. You nevertheless maintain that JFK smiled and waved for at least 3 seconds after the first “horrible ear-shattering noise” despite not being able to point to a single witness who said that occurred. I suppose that is not cherry picking because you haven’t yet found a cherry. I don’t have to cherry pick. Everytime I reach in my cherry basket I pull out a handful.
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Just putting myself in Oswald's head, as I am wont to do, I believe the thought process more likely would have been "I may only get one shot at this, so I'm going to make it the best one I can." I don't picture a former Marine sharpshooter taking a "what the hell, maybe I'll get lucky" first shot and alerting the entire world to his location.
This seems like typical ad hoc reasoning: I think he missed an early first shot, ergo this is what he was thinking and what happened. Common sense - oops, that's the other thread - says my scenario is more likely.
I thought his cheapie scope was nonadjustable - no?
I thought his cheapie scope was nonadjustable - no?
There are three adjustments available on the scope found on the rifle on the sixth floor of the TSBD on 11/22/63.
1). Elevation - adjusts the horizontal crosshair up and down.
2). Windage - adjusts the vertical crosshair left and right.
3). Ocular or Diopter - adjusts the focus to bring the the crosshairs (reticle) into sharp focus.
What it doesn’t have is any adjustment for different magnifications (it is fixed at 4X). And it doesn’t have any adjustment for parallax (to bring the target into sharp focus and minimize any parallax effects).
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I thought his cheapie scope was nonadjustable - no?
There are three adjustments available on the scope found on the rifle on the sixth floor of the TSBD on 11/22/63.
1). Elevation - adjusts the horizontal crosshair up and down.
2). Windage - adjusts the vertical crosshair left and right.
3). Ocular or Diopter - adjusts the focus to bring the the crosshairs (reticle) into sharp focus.
What it doesn’t have is any adjustment for different magnifications (it is fixed at 4X). And it doesn’t have any adjustment for parallax (to bring the target into sharp focus and minimize any parallax effects).
I wonder if Oswald ever bothered to adjust his scope. At the ranges he fired at both in the Walker attempt and the JFKA, he didn't need competition level precision. A really good marksman probably wouldn't even need the scope for such short ranges but for an average USMC marksman like Oswald, I can see how it would be helpful, even if not perfectly zeroed of the distance he was firing at. The fact the FBI determined the scope was aiming high indicates it had been zeroed for longer ranges. The scope was also aiming very slightly to the right. The WC theorized the high right aim of the scope might have aided Oswald because the movement of the limo would require Oswald to lead his target and put his aim point high and to the right. We will never know if Oswald took all of this into account he aimed the rifle. Whether by skill or luck, Oswald did manage to put three of his shots on his intended target because his rifle was the one that fired the shots that struck JFK to the exclusion of all other firearms in the world.
One thing we will never know is what Oswald's aim point was. Was he aiming at the center of mass which would mean the headshot was high or was he aiming at the head which would make the backshot low. That's one of several questions Oswald never answered for us.
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I wonder if Oswald ever bothered to adjust his scope. At the ranges he fired at both in the Walker attempt and the JFKA, he didn't need competition level precision. A really good marksman probably wouldn't even need the scope for such short ranges but for an average USMC marksman like Oswald, I can see how it would be helpful, even if not perfectly zeroed of the distance he was firing at. The fact the FBI determined the scope was aiming high indicates it had been zeroed for longer ranges. The scope was also aiming very slightly to the right. The WC theorized the high right aim of the scope might have aided Oswald because the movement of the limo would require Oswald to lead his target and put his aim point high and to the right. We will never know if Oswald took all of this into account he aimed the rifle. Whether by skill or luck, Oswald did manage to put three of his shots on his intended target because his rifle was the one that fired the shots that struck JFK to the exclusion of all other firearms in the world.
One thing we will never know is what Oswald's aim point was. Was he aiming at the center of mass which would mean the headshot was high or was he aiming at the head which would make the backshot low. That's one of several questions Oswald never answered for us.
The evidence suggests that LHO did some substantial planning for the Walker attempt. Therefore I would fully expect that he had a pretty good estimate of the distance involved with the place that he planned to shoot from. LHO apparently paid extra money for the scope, so it seems to me that he planned to use it for the Walker attempt. With the above in mind, and Marina’s reports of LHO practicing with the rifle, I have to believe that he zeroed the scope for his estimated distance of the Walker attempt (~100’). And I would expect that the scope was still zeroed for that ~100’ distance on 11/22/63.
The iron sights are another story. They are fixed (non-adjustable) at 200-meters if I remember correctly. I will try to find out the exact distance that the iron sights are above the center of the bore and see if I can come up with a ballistics calculation of how far off they would have been at the various distances of the Walker attempt and the distances involved in Dealey Plaza.
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The evidence suggests that LHO did some substantial planning for the Walker attempt. Therefore I would fully expect that he had a pretty good estimate of the distance involved with the place that he planned to shoot from. LHO apparently paid extra money for the scope, so it seems to me that he planned to use it for the Walker attempt. With the above in mind, and Marina’s reports of LHO practicing with the rifle, I have to believe that he zeroed the scope for his estimated distance of the Walker attempt (~100’). And I would expect that the scope was still zeroed for that ~100’ distance on 11/22/63.
The iron sights are another story. They are fixed (non-adjustable) at 200-meters if I remember correctly. I will try to find out the exact distance that the iron sights are above the center of the bore and see if I can come up with a ballistics calculation of how far off they would have been at the various distances of the Walker attempt and the distances involved in Dealey Plaza.
The fact that his shot struck the very bottom of the open window sash indicates to me his shot was high of his intended line of fire. Rather than the shot going through the open window, it hit the bottom of the sash. Just an educated guess but I doubt he used the scope for the Walker shooting. The iron sights were fixed and zeroed for 200 meters so at close range, the rifle would aim high. Oswald should have known that but he might have just forgot to make the adjustment.
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The fact that his shot struck the very bottom of the open window sash indicates to me his shot was high of his intended line of fire. Rather than the shot going through the open window, it hit the bottom of the sash. Just an educated guess but I doubt he used the scope for the Walker shooting. The iron sights were fixed and zeroed for 200 meters so at close range, the rifle would aim high. Oswald should have known that but he might have just forgot to make the adjustment.
You can believe that if you want to. It makes no difference to me.
The ballistics calculator indicates that using the fixed iron sights on that rifle with that ammo and at a distance of ~33-yards, the point of impact would be ~2.4” high relative to the point of aim.
Personally, I believe using the scope (if zeroed at the proper distance) would be a much better option. Again, it makes no sense to me that LHO would have spent extra money for the scope, practiced (and presumably zeroed the scope for the proper distance), and then for some inexplicable reason decided to use the fixed iron sights which would require a significant hold-under (2.4”) to be on target.
An alternative idea for why the shot might have hit the window sash is the recoil of the short rifle. It is significantly greater than a standard length rifle. If LHO didn’t hold the rifle steady during the follow-through, the recoil tends to raise the muzzle higher and this could have caused the miss. See the original post in this thread for the AI description of this effect.
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You can believe that if you want to. It makes no difference to me.
The ballistics calculator indicates that using the fixed iron sights on that rifle with that ammo and at a distance of ~33-yards, the point of impact would be ~2.4” high relative to the point of aim.
Personally, I believe using the scope (if zeroed at the proper distance) would be a much better option. Again, it makes no sense to me that LHO would have spent extra money for the scope, practiced (and presumably zeroed the scope for the proper distance), and then for some inexplicable reason decided to use the fixed iron sights which would require a significant hold-under (2.4”) to be on target.
An alternative idea for why the shot might have hit the window sash is the recoil of the short rifle. It is significantly greater than a standard length rifle. If LHO didn’t hold the rifle steady during the follow-through, the recoil tends to raise the muzzle higher and this could have caused the miss. See the original post in this thread for the AI description of this effect.
Looking at the backyard photos, I don't see a scope on the rifle. It might be due to the camera angle but I don't think he had the scope on the rifle when those photos were taken. Whether he used the iron sights or the scope when he shot at Walker, a shot just 2.4" inches high might have made the difference between a clean shot at Walker's head and striking the sash. I think that is a far more likely explanation for the high shot than recoil. The amount of recoil that occurs before the bullet leaves the barrel is negligible and is mostly rearward, not upward. AI describes this much better than I would:
"Yes — a rifle does recoil before the bullet leaves the muzzle, and this movement can affect accuracy.
When the trigger is pulled, the expanding gases from the burning powder begin pushing the bullet down the barrel. By Newton’s Third Law of Motion, the rifle experiences an equal and opposite rearward force almost immediately
. High‑speed videos (100,000+ frames per second) have captured this: the barrel and rifle system move backward while the bullet is still traveling through the bore, even through a suppressor
The bullet’s barrel dwell time — the time it takes to travel from the chamber to the muzzle — is extremely short, often around 0.0006–0.0007 seconds for a 24‑inch barrel at ~3000 fps
. However, the rifle’s inertia means it accelerates more slowly than the bullet, but it still moves during that time. In one calculation, a rifle could move about 0.06 inches rearward during that dwell period
. This movement can cause the muzzle to point slightly off the initial aim point, especially if the rifle is not perfectly supported or if the shooter’s body shifts."
Recoil would have more effect on subsequent shots when firing rapidly but it would not explain Oswald's miss when he shot at Walker. The M-14 was a full-auto version of he M-1 Garand. They soon discovered the problem when firing it in full auto since it used the same .30-06 cartridge. Few soldiers could hold the weapon on target. They found that the first round would be on target, the second, slightly high, the third over the head of he target and by the fourth round, it was an anti-aircraft gun.
The BAR was also a fully automatic weapon that fired the .30-06 round but because it was so much heavier than the M-14, it was much easier to control the recoil.
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Looking at the backyard photos, I don't see a scope on the rifle. It might be due to the camera angle but I don't think he had the scope on the rifle when those photos were taken. Whether he used the iron sights or the scope when he shot at Walker, a shot just 2.4" inches high might have made the difference between a clean shot at Walker's head and striking the sash. I think that is a far more likely explanation for the high shot than recoil. The amount of recoil that occurs before the bullet leaves the barrel is negligible and is mostly rearward, not upward. AI describes this much better than I would:
"Yes — a rifle does recoil before the bullet leaves the muzzle, and this movement can affect accuracy.
When the trigger is pulled, the expanding gases from the burning powder begin pushing the bullet down the barrel. By Newton’s Third Law of Motion, the rifle experiences an equal and opposite rearward force almost immediately
. High‑speed videos (100,000+ frames per second) have captured this: the barrel and rifle system move backward while the bullet is still traveling through the bore, even through a suppressor
The bullet’s barrel dwell time — the time it takes to travel from the chamber to the muzzle — is extremely short, often around 0.0006–0.0007 seconds for a 24‑inch barrel at ~3000 fps
. However, the rifle’s inertia means it accelerates more slowly than the bullet, but it still moves during that time. In one calculation, a rifle could move about 0.06 inches rearward during that dwell period
. This movement can cause the muzzle to point slightly off the initial aim point, especially if the rifle is not perfectly supported or if the shooter’s body shifts."
Recoil would have more effect on subsequent shots when firing rapidly but it would not explain Oswald's miss when he shot at Walker. The M-14 was a full-auto version of he M-1 Garand. They soon discovered the problem when firing it in full auto since it used the same .30-06 cartridge. Few soldiers could hold the weapon on target. They found that the first round would be on target, the second, slightly high, the third over the head of he target and by the fourth round, it was an anti-aircraft gun.
The BAR was also a fully automatic weapon that fired the .30-06 round but because it was so much heavier than the M-14, it was much easier to control the recoil.
Looking at the backyard photos, I don't see a scope on the rifle.
The black shirt camouflages the black scope. But it is definitely there. It helps to be looking at a good quality photo. This one is from the Sixth Floor Museum.
(https://i.vgy.me/kkGXZ0.jpg)
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It was 9 PM and this was presumably his first-ever assassination attempt. He ran after one shot. I would think that "darkness" and "nervousness" might be as relevant as any technical issue.
In a long thread about the damage to the window at the Ed Forum three years ago, Steve Roe also suggested the nervousness explanation, and Walker himself apparently suggested darkness was a factor:
My best guess is he felt pressured and may have rushed the shot somewhat. There were the two guys walking around in the LDS parking lot, and he might have noticed or heard them and rushed the shot, even though he used the lattice opening as a gun rest. Walker had his own explanation that through the scope with a lighted room background, he may not have seen the window frame clearly. Can't rule that out either.
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Looking at the backyard photos, I don't see a scope on the rifle.
The black shirt camouflages the black scope. But it is definitely there. It helps to be looking at a good quality photo. This one is from the Sixth Floor Museum.
(https://i.vgy.me/kkGXZ0.jpg)
OK. I see that now.
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It should be noted for a target moving away from the shooter, like at Dealey Plaza as seen from the TSBD, the target is constantly raising. So, aiming for a point and waiting for it to appear will not work too well with iron sights, because the barrel of the rifle blocks the view of the target until it suddenly pops into view. This method works much better with a scope, assuming the scope is properly adjusted.
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OK. I see that now.
You need to upgrade the JFK Assassination Images you are "examining". You are stuck in the 1970's, which explains many of the JFK Assassination misconceptions you swear by.