I wonder if a study has ever been done on the likelihood of the development of conspiracy theories after any given occurrence and the factors involved that would impact such a process.
For instance when the Watergate burglars were caught it was not a big deal, until one of them told the judge he worked for the CIA. Was this the beginning of a conspiracy theory that proved valid over time?
Is the impact of the event related to the development of suspicion that the official findings of the related investigation and conclusion are wrong or even a cover up? This happened after the JFK, RFK and MLK assassinations, but also after the 9/11 attacks. Presumably there will be overlapping aspects in the JFK murder and the attack on Kirk that led to surfacing of conspiracy theories in the latter case.