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Applying Logic and Critical Thinking to the JFK Assassination

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Kevin Balch:
I am on the conspiracy side mostly because of the the nature of the JFK/JBC wounds and the timing difference in the shots that came “close together” whether 1 and 2 or 2 and 3.

But sadly, all the techniques you point out are widely used among those on the conspiracy side.

One of my favorites is what I call the “Cleanup Squad” that has for decades murdered inconvenient witnesses and got away with it every time. According to the book “Hit List” there are around 40 victims. However, with that many victims you would think there is a clear arrow pointing to who was behind the JFKA. But the list of victims points everywhere.

Lance Payette:

--- Quote from: Michael T. Griffith on June 12, 2026, 04:17:22 PM ---To save any newcomers some time, Lance Payette argues that conspiracy theorists suffer from a mental disorder, from defective brains, from warped thinking, etc. He says it's not really their fault but that their brains are just wired to conjure up conspiracies where there are none. Seriously, that is his position.
--- End quote ---

Well, some of them - yes. Mr. Payette is actually a scholarly sort who has delved fairly extensively into the rather large and ever-increasing body of psychological and sociological literature identifying a distinct conspiracy-prone mindset. The literature makes clear that this mindset - which Mr. Payette shares to some extent but has the self-awareness to realize it - is not aberrant or pathological per se. Even those of us who share it recognize that there is, however, a lunatic fringe of credulous nutcases whose credulous nutcase beliefs do not necessarily bear any relation to their intelligence or education. Indeed, folks with a high level of intelligence and education seem to be somewhat over-represented in the credulous nutcase wing of conspiracy thinking. On this thread, I give you Exhibit A.


--- Quote ---Here are just a few of the people who must suffer from warped thinking because they believe JFK was killed by a conspiracy:
--- End quote ---

When your fallacious appeal to authority starts with Hot Lips Luna and RFK Jr., well, things have gone off the rails, haven't they?

John Corbett:

--- Quote from: Michael T. Griffith on June 12, 2026, 02:49:00 PM ---This is the first post of several that I will present in this thread.

In numerous surveys done in the U.S. and Europe over the years, including fairly recently, the percentage of people who have said they believe JFK was killed by a conspiracy has ranged from 56% to 85%, with about 6% to 10% undecided. Even in the 1970s, surveys found that a sizable majority of Americans did not buy the Warren Commission's lone-gunman story. I think one of the reasons for the rejection of the single-assassin scenario is that it does not hold up when analyzed with logic and critical thinking.
--- End quote ---

Truth is not subject to popular opinion. It does not require a majority opinion. Most of the people surveyed are woefully uninformed about the evidence in the case which overwhelmingly points to Oswald as the assassin and there is not a scrap of credible evidence that points to anybody else. I challenged you to produce such evidence earlier this week and you passed on the opportunity.
--- Quote ---   

Let us begin by looking at the key issue of motive.
--- End quote ---

Motive is not a key issue. It is entirely unnecessary to prove Oswald's motive. It can be fun to guess but nobody really knows because he didn't tell anybody his motive.
--- Quote ---
-- The lone-gunman theory is unable to provide a believable, credible motive for its alleged lone gunman. By all accounts, Oswald liked JFK. No one ever claimed to hear Oswald voice any intent to harm JFK. If Oswald's motive was to make a name for himself in history, why did he vehemently deny shooting JFK? If Oswald had killed JFK to make himself famous, one would logically expect that he would have proudly taken credit for JFK's death and announced his justifications to the world, but he did no such thing.

After Lynette "Squeaky" Fromme tried to assassinate President Gerald Ford in 1975, she made no effort to deny her guilt but proudly defended her action. She openly voiced two motives for her assassination attempt: (1) her anger over Ford's alleged destruction of the environment, and (2) her desire to draw attention to the Manson family.

After Leon Czolgosz was arrested for assassinating President William McKinley in 1901, he staunchly defended his action and made no secret of his motive. He said he viewed McKinley as an oppressive leader and was convinced it was his duty to kill an "enemy of the good people--the working people."

When John Wilkes Booth shot Abraham Lincoln in Ford's Theatre in 1865, he loudly made his motive clear seconds after he did the shooting, shouting to the shocked audience "sic semper tyrannis," i.e., "thus always to tyrants."
--- End quote ---

None of these cases are the least relevant to the JFK assassination. You seem to believe all assassins think alike.
--- Quote ---
But Oswald behaved in a completely different manner. At every opportunity, whether under police interrogation or when speaking with journalists, he fiercely denied shooting anyone, and he told the police--and his brother--that the evidence against him was fraudulent, even going so far as to claim he was a patsy.
--- End quote ---

I guess he never got a copy of the assassin's rule book.
--- Quote ---
Furthermore, according to the lone-gunman theory, Oswald tried to shoot right-wing extremist General Edwin Walker in April 1963. Now why, oh why, oh why would the same allegedly pro-Soviet and pro-Cuban Marxist who supposedly tried to shoot the ultra-conservative General Walker turn around and shoot the center-left JFK, who was publicly trying to make peace with the Soviets, especially given the fact that JFK had publicly disgraced Walker and had relieved Walker of command? That makes no sense.
--- End quote ---

Why would you think a senseless person would act sensibly. It doesn't matter if Oswald's actions makes sense to anybody else. It made sense to him.
--- Quote ---
-- The conspiracy theory of the assassination can provide concrete, documented motives for its suspects.
--- End quote ---

Motives without out evidence does not establish guilt. I'll bet there are lots of people in this country who wish Thomas Crooks had been a better marksman. Does that make them complicit in the attempt on Trump's life.
--- Quote ---
It has been amply documented, including with filmed interviews, that certain CIA officers who worked with the anti-Castro Cubans, along with some of the anti-Castro Cubans themselves, viscerally hated JFK and regarded him as a traitor. And we have two credible anecdotal accounts of CIA officers proudly admitting to close associates that they played a role in JFK's death.
--- End quote ---

Credible to whom?
--- Quote ---
One of the best books on evidence that some CIA officers and anti-Castro Cubans were involved in the assassination is former HSCA investigator Gaeton Fonzi's 1993 book The Last Investigation.
--- End quote ---

Oh, goody. Another JFKA conspiracy book. How many of these have been written? They can't seem to agree on who the bad guys were.
--- Quote ---
There is even stronger evidence of motive for certain Mafia elements. The historical record is clear, and no reputable scholar denies, that the Kennedy administration was waging an intense war against the Mafia, and that the Mafia viewed JFK and RFK as threats to their very existence.
--- End quote ---

OK, so JFK had enemies. What president hasn't. That doesn't mean they were behind the assassination. There have been 3 assassination attempts on Trump. Should we believe that the people  who hate Trump were behind  these attempts or should we believe they were acts committed by deranged individuals? In lieu of any evidence to the contrary, I choose to believe the latter.
--- Quote ---
Wiretaps recorded some Mafia leaders expressing a wish to see JFK dead before the assassination, and two informants reported that they heard Mafia leaders talking about a plot to kill Kennedy in the months leading up to JFK's death. Moreover, after the assassination, a government informant heard Mafia kingpin Carlos Marcello admit to playing a role in the assassination.
--- End quote ---

Now all you need is evidence connecting these Mafia figures to the assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald.
--- Quote ---
Three of the best books on the evidence that certain Mafia elements were involved in the assassination are Anthony Summers' 2013 book Not in Your Lifetime: The Defining Book on the J.F.K. Assassination (updated version), Lamar Waldron's 2013 book The Hidden History of the JFK Assassination, and Dr. David Kaiser's 2008 book The Road to Dallas: The Assassination of John F. Kennedy.
--- End quote ---

Are we supposed to believe every conspiracy book that comes down the pike? What makes these books more credible than all of the others?
--- Quote ---
Summers was a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 2012 and has twice won the Crime Writers' Association's award for top non-fiction works. In recognition of his scholarship, Summers was made a Fellow of the Literary & Historical Society of University College Dublin.

Waldron is a respected journalist and historian. His historical research and non-fiction books have won praise from Publishers Weekly, Vanity Fair, the Boston Globe, the San Francisco Chronicle, and major publications in Europe. His research has been the subject of two prime-time specials on the Discovery Channel, produced by NBC News. He has been featured on CNN and the History Channel.

Kaiser is a respected historian. When Kaiser wrote his JFK book, he was a professor of history at the Naval War College. He later held professorships at Harvard University, Williams College, and Carnegie Mellon University. He earned his B.A. and Ph.D. in history from Harvard. He is now retired. (On a side note, Kaiser concluded that the HSCA's acoustical evidence was valid.)

--- End quote ---

Really smart people are perfectly capable of coming up with really stupid ideas.

John Corbett:
delete

Lance Payette:

--- Quote from: Kevin Balch on June 12, 2026, 04:28:28 PM ---I am on the conspiracy side mostly because of the the nature of the JFK/JBC wounds and the timing difference in the shots that came “close together” whether 1 and 2 or 2 and 3.
--- End quote ---

Sure, which is why I have made clear that I am open-minded toward a plausible CT scenario, which to my mind means a gunman in or on the Dal-Tex or County Records building, with Oswald as either a knowing participant or one who was duped into participating in a conspiracy that was different from what he thought it was. I lean toward the Mafia because the motive was simply perfect, but it could have been an anti-Castro or even pro-Castro gunman. Once things start getting more complex than this, it quickly loses me.

What MTG hopes to accomplish by insisting I am a foaming-at-the-mouth CT-baiting LN zealot is beyond me. If I thought he had any money and I was confident I could testify witout giggling, I'd sue him for defamation, intentional infliction of emotional distress, and possibly even malicious res ipsa loquitur. The humor is that he has absolutely zero awareness that he is shooting himself and the entire CT community in the foot (feet?) with his grandiose claims that literally everything including Ruth Paine's kitchen sink points toward a conspiracy. It's too bad he's not a Garrison cultist - he'd be perfect.

I seem to be unusual (weird?) in that I enjoy trying on different hats and different personas to see if I can talk myself out of a particular line of thinking.

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