"Overthinking" (or maybe not?) the Walker attempt

[Charles Collins]

I'm glad you have acknowledged your error. I've made plenty of my own over the years. What I don't buy is your limiting the miss to just 3 feet. With all that was working against Oswald on that first shot. He would have been in a very awkward shooting position to fire that steep a downward shot. He would have been firing through a window about a foot from the floor and was only open about another foot, the boxes would not have been much help steadying the rifle, and his target was close to passing under the tree which could have caused him to rush the shot. A wild miss is not out of the question for that shot.

I agree with what you said above. What I disagree with is your contention that LHO would have intentionally taken a shot under those very poor conditions. He had apparently set up the sniper’s nest for some very comfortable and stable shots while the limo was in the kill zone just past the tree. Why do you believe LHO would take an intentional early shot that was so very difficult so that missing by greater than 3’ at a distance of only ~105’ was likely?

We will never know these things with any certainty, but when I consider the difficulty of an early shot and that the window box and the vertical pipe near the window were both potential interference factors for a shot at that point in time, it seems to me that the shot was most likely an accidental discharge. Accidental discharges can happen to anyone and can happen at the most in opportune times. We once obtained a hole in our dining room table and chair and floor from an accidental discharge by a federally licensed gunsmith that was also a gun safety instructor. He had been told it was loaded but unintentionally had his finger on the trigger while examining the pistol. He knew better than to have his finger on the trigger, but it happened anyway.

I believe that LHO would have, at that point in time, been in the process of raising the rifle out of his lap and into a shooting position and beginning to track the moving target while anticipating shooting just after the limo cleared the tree and entered the kill zone. If LHO had his finger on the trigger and an unexpected bump into the window box or his left elbow into the pipe, then an accidental discharge could very well have been the result. My opinion is that this is the more likely scenario.

[John Corbett]

I agree with what you said above. What I disagree with is your contention that LHO would have intentionally taken a shot under those very poor conditions. He had apparently set up the sniper’s nest for some very comfortable and stable shots while the limo was in the kill zone just past the tree. Why do you believe LHO would take an intentional early shot that was so very difficult so that missing by greater than 3’ at a distance of only ~105’ was likely?

We will never know these things with any certainty, but when I consider the difficulty of an early shot and that the window box and the vertical pipe near the window were both potential interference factors for a shot at that point in time, it seems to me that the shot was most likely an accidental discharge. Accidental discharges can happen to anyone and can happen at the most in opportune times. We once obtained a hole in our dining room table and chair and floor from an accidental discharge by a federally licensed gunsmith that was also a gun safety instructor. He had been told it was loaded but unintentionally had his finger on the trigger while examining the pistol. He knew better than to have his finger on the trigger, but it happened anyway.

I believe that LHO would have, at that point in time, been in the process of raising the rifle out of his lap and into a shooting position and beginning to track the moving target while anticipating shooting just after the limo cleared the tree and entered the kill zone. If LHO had his finger on the trigger and an unexpected bump into the window box or his left elbow into the pipe, then an accidental discharge could very well have been the result. My opinion is that this is the more likely scenario.

In hindsight, it's easy for us to second guess Oswald taking that first shot under such difficult circumstances, but I've consistently said over the years, we can't know what was going through Oswald's mind at any point during the event. Oswald had four rounds in his rifle and a limited amount time to fire them. It's understandable why he might try to get in a shot before JFK went under the tree, even if it was a low percentage shot. He had zero chance of scoring a hit if he didn't take that shot. As Wayne Gretzky once famously said, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.". Hockey players try to put as many shots on goal as they can, even though they are low percentage shots. For every hockey game the shots on goal vastly outnumber the goals scored. A low percentage shot has a better chance than no shot at all. 

[Charles Collins]

In hindsight, it's easy for us to second guess Oswald taking that first shot under such difficult circumstances, but I've consistently said over the years, we can't know what was going through Oswald's mind at any point during the event. Oswald had four rounds in his rifle and a limited amount time to fire them. It's understandable why he might try to get in a shot before JFK went under the tree, even if it was a low percentage shot. He had zero chance of scoring a hit if he didn't take that shot. As Wayne Gretzky once famously said, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.". Hockey players try to put as many shots on goal as they can, even though they are low percentage shots. For every hockey game the shots on goal vastly outnumber the goals scored. A low percentage shot has a better chance than no shot at all.

Earlier you indicated you have a 30.06 rifle. So, I would guess that you might be a deer hunter. Let’s try an analogy with a deer hunter up high in a tree stand that has prepared provisions for a comfortable and stable seated and supported shot into a clearing. A deer comes along and is moving towards the clearing right below the hunter. The deer hunter knows for certain that that deer will emerge very soon into that clearing and present itself such that the hunter has a perfect comfortable and supported shot into the deer’s vital organs zone. Why the heck would the deer hunter decide to stand up and shoot at the deer before it gets to the clearing. How many deer hunters do you know that would take a very low percentage early shot under those conditions?

[Lance Payette]

Jack Nessan really should pay me a royalty on every copy of Phantom Shot he sells, but I cannot help but be struck by the fact that Oswald manages to put two pretty precisely-placed bullets into JFK after supposedly having gone through all sorts of hypothetical gyrations and managing to miss the entire limousine - and no one can agree on exactly when he did that. Two shots seems to me to be favored by Occam's (or Ockham's) Razor, and Mrs. Occam agrees. I don't quite understand the near-desperation to preserve the three-shot scenario. There doesn't seem to be any reason the evidence demands this.

It seems to me that the best evidence, including the Gloria Calvery group, places the first shot just about where the three-shot narrative places the second shot. If the three-shot scenario were correct, it seems to me the second and third shots would be the bang-bang sequence that Bowers and others described. Is this perhaps the real motivation for insisting on an early missed shot?

[Michael T. Griffith]

For a good summary of some of the problems with the case against Oswald in the Walker shooting, I recommend C.A.A. Savastano's article "The Walker Allegations":

https://www.tpaak.com/walker-allegations

The bullet that was fired at Walker was recovered. Walker said the bullet was mangled, but he also made it clear the bullet was not a WCC Carcano FMJ bullet. He was adamant on this point:

During the HSCA investigation in the 1970’s, General Walker himself said that the bullet in evidence was not the same bullet that was found in his house on 10th April 1963. He wrote to the Attorney General in February 1979 and said that it was “a ridiculous substitute.” He went on to state that “I saw the hunk of lead, picked up by a policeman in my house, and I took it from him and I inspected it carefully. There is no mistake. There has been a substitution for the bullet fired by Oswald and taken out of my house.”
(https://www.kennedysandking.com/john-f-kennedy-articles/oswald-and-the-shot-at-walker-redressing-the-balance)

As for Greg Doudna's upcoming book on the Walker shooting, I have great respect for Greg and agree with many of his conclusions about the shooting. You can find Greg's summary of his findings here:

https://educationforum.ipbhost.com/topic/31469-my-forthcoming-book-on-the-walker-shot/

Of course, WC defenders don't bat an eye when they claim that the same guy who went 2/3 or 2/2 in 5.6 seconds when supposedly shooting JFK somehow completely missed Walker from much closer range and with plenty of time to take aim.

[John Corbett]

Earlier you indicated you have a 30.06 rifle. So, I would guess that you might be a deer hunter. Let’s try an analogy with a deer hunter up high in a tree stand that has prepared provisions for a comfortable and stable seated and supported shot into a clearing. A deer comes along and is moving towards the clearing right below the hunter. The deer hunter knows for certain that that deer will emerge very soon into that clearing and present itself such that the hunter has a perfect comfortable and supported shot into the deer’s vital organs zone. Why the heck would the deer hunter decide to stand up and shoot at the deer before it gets to the clearing. How many deer hunters do you know that would take a very low percentage early shot under those conditions?

I'm not a hunter at all. I shoot paper targets. Living in a rural area I have learned a little about deer hunting. Ohio does not allow deer hunting with rifles other than muzzle loaders which have their own season which greatly reduces the number of hunters in the field. Ohio deer hunters shoot deer with deer slugs fired from shotguns. We have bow hunters too but they share the primitive weapons season with the muzzle loaders.

A deer hunter will wait for an optimal shot because he knows he has to score a hit with the first shot because if he misses, the deer will be long gone before he ever gets off a second shot.

Having his intended target take off if he missed his first shot was of less concern to Oswald than to a deer hunter. Ideally, that's what should have happened but Greer was slow to react. Apparently, Oswald decided like the hockey players, the more shots he took, the more likelihood he would score a fatal hit. He had chambered his fourth and final round before deciding it wasn't necessary.

It was Oswald's decision to make and there's no reason to think he would have made the same decision as you. Since he succeeded, I see no point in second guessing his choice.

[Charles Collins]

I'm not a hunter at all. I shoot paper targets. Living in a rural area I have learned a little about deer hunting. Ohio does not allow deer hunting with rifles other than muzzle loaders which have their own season which greatly reduces the number of hunters in the field. Ohio deer hunters shoot deer with deer slugs fired from shotguns. We have bow hunters too but they share the primitive weapons season with the muzzle loaders.

A deer hunter will wait for an optimal shot because he knows he has to score a hit with the first shot because if he misses, the deer will be long gone before he ever gets off a second shot.

Having his intended target take off if he missed his first shot was of less concern to Oswald than to a deer hunter. Ideally, that's what should have happened but Greer was slow to react. Apparently, Oswald decided like the hockey players, the more shots he took, the more likelihood he would score a fatal hit. He had chambered his fourth and final round before deciding it wasn't necessary.

It was Oswald's decision to make and there's no reason to think he would have made the same decision as you. Since he succeeded, I see no point in second guessing his choice.

I believe LHO was smart enough not to intentionally tale such a poor shot that was likely to miss by such an extremely large margin. Especially when he had apparently intentionally set up a much better and stable set of shots that he knew he would have in just a few seconds. Same as any competent deer hunter.