It all comes down to the standards the FBI and State of Illinois crime labs use to establish a positive match between a bullet and a firearm. The FBI, while recognizing all the bullets had the same characteristics as the test bullets fired from Oswald's rifle, they could not say positively the recovered bullets came from Oswald's gun and they do no speculate on probabilities. If they can't say with certainty that a bullet did or did not come from a particular firearm, they rule it is inconclusive. The examiner for the State of Illinois believed one of the bullets fired did have enough matching markings to say it positively came from Oswald's gun. Because the bore of the Oswalds revolver was slightly smaller than the diameter of the .38 Special bullets Oswald fired, the revolver did not produce consistent markings on the bullets.
Oswald's revolver was manufactured for shipment to the UK as part of the Lend Lease Act. It fired the S&W .38-200 which was the same diameter as the British .380 Enfield so it could use the same ammo. After the end of WWII, these revolvers were returned to the US. The revolver that Oswald would eventually purchase was rechambered for the slightly smaller .38 Special which had a true caliber of .357, .023 inches smaller than the bore of the revolver. This is why a .357 Magnum revolver can fire .38 Specials. For some reason, the gun industry does not always state the true diameter of a bullet when they name it.