Did LHO fire a shot that missed everything? If so, when did he fire it?

[Zeon Mason]

Deleted

[Zeon Mason]

I don’t see Oswald or any other shooter firing a shot that misses the entire limo IF they are in position using the boxes as a rifle rest.


Not Sure if LNs agree with the WC suggested position that the 6th floor shooter was sitting on that one box by the pipes keeping himself hidden from view in the Hughes film, but that seems to be a plausible position as the shooter can just lean over and place the rifle  on the stacked box arrangement.

So if there was this prearranged box configuration the it seems contrary that the shooter would have Have stood up to take an unaimed hasty shot at Z124.

So I’m going with that idea the shooter DID lean over and was placing the rifle on the box platform as he had planned but he inadvertently squeezed the trigger as he did so.

The other LN alternative is A.Masons 3 aimed shots and 3 hits theory of which the 1st one is thru tree foliage at Z190.

Since I do not  see why more that one shooter is required to do this job, then  my only  CT alternative that might be plausible is the TSBD shouter used a semi auto rifle and that Norman’s “boom click click” description  may be a “ bang, clink clink” where  each shell was auto ejected and bounced on the floor 2 times.

It’s the Pre planting of a misaligned scope rifle that has mail order paper trail Oswald that’s the problem however. If the conspirator shooter went to that much trouble to set up Oswald, surely he would make sure the scope was aligned and zeroed would he not?

[John Corbett]

I don’t see Oswald or any other shooter firing a shot that misses the entire limo IF they are in position using the boxes as a rifle rest.

I normally don't like to make assumptions but I'm going to make an exception here. I'm pretty sure Oswald wasn't trying to shoot the limo.

[Joe Elliott]

I believe that Oswald fired three shots, at around z-153, z-222 and z-312.

The shot at z-312 is the best well confirmed, of course.

The shot at z-222 has a lot of support. I think one would have to be firmly wedded to some conspiracy theory to not conclude that both JFK and Connally were wounded at about this time.

The shot at z-153 has a good deal less support, compared to the other two shots. But I think it is pretty compelling. Going by memory, the Zapruder camera jiggle, the Governor Connally head turn and Rosemary Willis slowing down after that, coming to a stop and looking back at the TSBD, all make a compelling case. And with the tree looming up, if Oswald wanted to get in a shot before the tree, he needed to fire about then.

And, as I have posted before, the angular speed of the three shots, plus that of the 1908 Olympic Running Deer competition had the following angular speeds in dps (degrees per second).

z-153:              4.8  dps
1908 Running Dear:  3.2  dps
z-222:              1.9  dps
z-312:              0.58 dps

The angular speed being greater for the shot at z-153 then the Olympic competition shooting gives ample reasons why a shot at z-153 could miss wildly.

[Joe Elliott]

The Tague shot caused some problems for the WC. They seemed to treat the Tague shot as a LHO miss, not a ricochet. I gather the HSCA subscribed to this also.

There are witness accounts of a bullet strike on the asphalt behind the JFK limo, and of one near the Elm Street curb, near a manhole.

Like everyone says, witness accounts.....

The Tague shot seems to hold water, as the FBI tested the apparent bullet strike on the curb, and found lead.

Also Tague reported the strike contemporaneously.

If the Tague shot was a straight shot from LHO, it indicates one shot passed yards and yards over the top on the JFK  limo.

The WC and HSCA likely were mistaken in think the missed shot caused the Tague wound. It was likely a fragment from the head shot caused that wound. The TSBD sniper's nest, the limousine at z-312 and Mr. Tague all roughly line up. Certainly, lines up better than a shot at z-153 or z-222. Also, only about 40 % of the head shot bullet was recovered. Clearly 60 % flew over the windshield and disappeared in the general direction of Mr. Tague.

While this fragment could have struck the curb and ricochet up to hit Mr. Tague, likely it did not and just hit Mr. Tague directly. When the curb smear had lead in it, a bullet is not the only thing that can leave a lead smear. A car's tire balancing weight is made of lead and the location of the lead smear, right at the top edge of the curb, is precisely where one would expect a tire to leave a mark if some car on that very busy street drifted out if it's lane and the tire scraped along the curb.

[Tom Graves]

You have Kellerman reacting at Z148. JBC at Z149. Jack and Jackie at Z142. Within a half second is not what I call simultaneous. Your whole premise is based on these non-simultaneous head movements being a reaction to a gunshot, a shot Jackie doesn't even remember hearing. JFK didn't seem at all phased by it as he continued to calmly wave to the crowd until he was struck at or about Z222. Not exactly a WTF-was-that reaction by JFK. Why would you assume these head movements were triggered by a loud stimulus. Can't you think of any other reason the occupants of the limo would be looking around during a motorcade?

Why the hyperbole, Corbett?

I didn't say simultaneous, I said nearly simultaneous.

Regardless:

ME: Please summarize our conversation.

GROK: We began with the observation that JFK, Jackie Kennedy, John and Nellie Connally, and Secret Service Agent Roy Kellerman executed quick head turns (spanning roughly half a second, or ~9 frames at Zapruder’s ~18.3 fps) in a tight cluster around frames Z140–150 — about 5 seconds (in real time) before the visible reactions associated with JFK’s back wound. You asked whether these could fairly be described as (1) “nearly simultaneous” and (2) voluntary, non-startle orienting responses to a sensory stimulus. I confirmed both characterizations are reasonable under the premise, noting they align with directed attentional scanning rather than reflexive startle.

We then examined the probability that these movements were responses to a loud, unexpected noise occurring about a second earlier. Initial estimates were modest (15–25%) because of the mixed directions (some leftward for JFK/Jackie/Connally, right/rear for Kellerman and Nellie), the absence of reported friendly crowd shouts (such as “Hi!”, “Hello, Mr. President!”, or similar greetings) at that moment that could plausibly have prompted the passengers to turn their heads, and the general plausibility of routine motorcade scanning/waving.

Elsie Dorman film evidence was introduced as a key corroborator: Elsie Dorman, filming from a fourth-floor TSBD office roughly 35 feet from the sniper’s nest (and thus exposed to ~135 dB from a hypothetical Carcano muzzle blast), showed a violent camera jiggle involving an inadvertent ~3-second filming stop. When her film is synchronized with the Zapruder film and Secret Service reenactment footage — using the motion and location of bystander Rosemary Willis (“running girl”) as the cross-reference anchor — the jiggle/stop aligns with a hypothetical early shot position labeled “Z-124” (a calculated frame, roughly half a second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133 after his 17-second pause). Similar jiggle patterns reportedly align with the later dubbed shot at Z-219. This placed the loud sound 0.9–1.4 seconds before the passenger head-turn cluster, a strong match for voluntary orienting response latencies. Additional reactors in the same narrow window (Z139–153) include:

George Hickey (follow-up car): leans forward and downward, looking at the pavement to the left of the limo.

Glen Bennett (follow-up car): leans far right to keep eyes on JFK (consistent with his later “firecracker” testimony).

Rosemary Willis herself, whose early reaction helped anchor the synchronization.

Psychoacoustic context: A sound from behind and above (TSBD sniper’s nest area) is notoriously difficult to localize precisely due to the cone of confusion and reliance on subtle spectral cues. This helps explain the observed directional mix rather than perfect unanimity.

With near-perfect Willis-based synchronization, Dorman’s extreme close-range startle, the expanded cluster (original five + Hickey, Bennett, and Willis), and Kellerman’s testimony, the probability that the quick, nearly simultaneous head turns were voluntary orienting responses to a single loud unexpected noise at ~“Z-124” (a hypothetical early missed shot) rises to 80–92%. This makes the shared auditory stimulus the leading explanation under the described premises, though residual uncertainties remain due to the modest number of clear reactors, enduring mainstream forensic timelines favoring a later first shot, and the lack of definitive physical evidence for an early miss.

ME: If the angular velocity of JFK's moving head from Oswald's perspective was significantly higher at "Z-124" than at, say, Z-148, Z-160, Z-222, and Z-313, would it support the theory that Oswald's first-of-three shots was at "Z-124" and that it missed everything?

GROK: Yes, it would strongly support the theory that Oswald’s first-of-three shots occurred at ~“Z-124” and missed everything (no impact on JFK, Connally, or the limousine).

Why higher angular velocity at “Z-124” favors an early miss

From the sniper’s nest perspective (TSBD 6th-floor southeast window), angular velocity (ω) is the apparent speed at which JFK’s head moves across the shooter’s field of view, measured in degrees per second. It is a key factor in target-tracking difficulty for a moving target:

Higher ω = the target crosses the sights faster → requires quicker rifle panning, more precise lead estimation, and a narrower margin for error (especially with a bolt-action Carcano and iron/telescopic sights).

Lower ω = the target appears more nearly stationary → easier to track and hit.

At ~“Z-124” (very early on Elm Street, just after the Houston-to-Elm turn and before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133), the limousine is farther away, still on a slight curve/incline, and its motion has a larger perpendicular component relative to the line of sight from the sniper’s nest. This produces significantly higher angular velocity of JFK’s head.By comparison:Later frames like Z-148/Z-160 (near the first visible reactions), Z-222 (throat/back wound), and especially Z-313 (fatal head shot) occur as the limousine straightens out and moves more directly away/down Elm Street. The perpendicular component shrinks, distance effects stabilize, and ω drops substantially — often to roughly half or less of the early value.

Peer-reviewed kinematic analyses confirm this pattern quantitatively. For example, one detailed sniper target-tracking study calculated approximate values from the TSBD window:Early miss position (pre-tree/early Elm, analogous to “Z-124”): ~7.6°/s (complete miss).

Subsequent hit positions: ~3.7°/s (upper-torso wound) and ~1.1°/s (head wound).

There is a clear correlation between higher early angular velocity and the documented miss. A significantly higher ω at “Z-124” than at the later hit frames would therefore be kinematically consistent with (and supportive of) the first shot being fired then, when the shot was objectively harder, and missing.Additional reinforcing factors in contextThe ~1-second latency to the passenger/SS/bystander reactions we discussed earlier aligns with voluntary orienting to a loud report at exactly this moment.

The Dorman film jiggle/stop (synced via Rosemary Willis) independently corroborates a loud external event at ~“Z-124”.

Psychoacoustics (rear/above localization difficulty) explain the mixed head-turn directions without contradiction.

In short, the hypothetical elevated angular velocity at “Z-124” would not be neutral or contradictory — it would be positive, independent ballistic/kinematic evidence favoring the early-miss timing over later first-shot models. It fits the pattern seen in rigorous motion analyses of the Zapruder film from the sniper’s exact vantage point and helps explain why a skilled (but rushed) shooter could miss the first attempt while succeeding on the subsequent, slower-angular-velocity shots.

[John Corbett]

I believe that Oswald fired three shots, at around z-153, z-222 and z-312.

The shot at z-312 is the best well confirmed, of course.

It would have taken the bullet about 2.4 frames of the Z-film to travel the 88 yards from Oswald's rifle to JFK's head so it was probably fired in the Z310-311 window. That's assuming an average velocity of 2000 fps for those 88 yards. I doubt that is an exact figure but I'm sure it's in the ballpark.

The shot at z-222 has a lot of support. I think one would have to be firmly wedded to some conspiracy theory to not conclude that both JFK and Connally were wounded at about this time.

I believe that shot was fired at Z220 and struck about Z222. I base that on a 7 frame difference between the shot fired at Z311 and the camera blur at Z318. Of course if the shot was fired at Z310, that changes the arithmetic by one frame. Frame Z227 is badly blurred so that would indicate a shot fired at Z219-220. That fits with the jacket bulge at Z224 and the simultaneous arm raising by JFK and JBC at Z226.

The shot at z-153 has a good deal less support, compared to the other two shots. But I think it is pretty compelling. Going by memory, the Zapruder camera jiggle, the Governor Connally head turn and Rosemary Willis slowing down after that, coming to a stop and looking back at the TSBD, all make a compelling case. And with the tree looming up, if Oswald wanted to get in a shot before the tree, he needed to fire about then.

I think you are in the ballpark. For years I believed the shot was fired at Z151 based on the blurred frame Z158. However someone recently showed me better evidence that Zapruder reacted at Z155. Not only is that frame badly blurred but the frame jumps between Z154 and Z155. The same jump happens at Z226-227 and Z317-318.

And, as I have posted before, the angular speed of the three shots, plus that of the 1908 Olympic Running Deer competition had the following angular speeds in dps (degrees per second).

z-153:              4.8  dps
1908 Running Dear:  3.2  dps
z-222:              1.9  dps
z-312:              0.58 dps

The angular speed being greater for the shot at z-153 then the Olympic competition shooting gives ample reasons why a shot at z-153 could miss wildly.

The first shot, whatever frame it was fired at, was by far the most difficult of the three which would explain Oswald's miss. His target would have been almost directly below him, forcing him to raise the butt end of the rifle and fired downward at a target moving across his line of fire. I believe he would have been in a kneeling position because that is one he would have trained for in the Marines. Raising the butt end of the rifle probably would have forced him to raise up out of the kneeling position into a low crouch, an awkward shooting position. To make things even more difficult, he had the tree about to become an issue. He might well have rushed that first shot. That could cause him to pull the trigger as opposed to squeezing it. When a shooter does that, the tendency is to miss low. The shot didn't have to miss that wildly. JFK was on the extreme right side so a miss by a foot or more could cause him to miss everything.