Gov. John Connally Grips His White Stetson Hat at Z-272

[John Corbett]

The head shot did not strike until after z312 was exposed.

The head shot would have to have been fired at Z311 or earlier to cover the 88 yards before striking JFK's head at Z313. That is based on an estimated average velocity of 2000 fps.
88 yards is 264 feet.
264 / 2000 = 0.132 seconds to cover the 88 yards.
1 / 18.3 = 0.546.... elapsed time for a single frame.
0.132 / 0.546... = 2.4156 frames for the bullet to travel 88 yards

And the second was not as late as z275 because the forward recoil-like motion begins at z271-272. There is a change in the appearance of the wrist area between those two frames as well. Also there is this apparent movement of the left sunvisor:

and JFK’s hair flies up at z273-276 just as Hickey observed at the time of the second shot:

I expect may have taken a frame or two for the air movement from the bullet shock wave to reach the head and start lifting the hair.

I don't suppose you considered the possibility that JFK's hair movement could be cause by the fact he is in a moving open top car.

From the beginning of z271 to the beginning of z313 is 42 frames or 2.3 seconds.  Are you suggesting that Oswald could not have fired the third shot 2.3 seconds after the second in a last desperate attempt to hit his mark? He wouldn’t even have to move the rifle held in place by the strap and boxes as the target moved a bit more to the right as it followed the left to right curve toward the underpass.

Oswald could have fired a shot 2.3 seconds after a previous shot as long as he didn't bother to take time to aim the rifle. The FBI determined it would take a shooter a minimum of 2.4 seconds between shots if the shooter took time to aim. Even that figure is a stretch since I seriously doubt Oswald was trying to fire as fast as he could, especially since he had on four rounds to start with. He would want to try to make every short count. He was able to do that on 2 of his 3 shots. He decided he didn't need to fire the fourth shot after he chambered his next round, reacquired his target, and then saw the devastating wound he had inflicted.

Try as you might, you aren't going to make your scenario work.

[John Corbett]

So what if the shot pattern had a pattern that enabled you to remember the number of shots because there was one shot and a longish pause of about 4-5 seconds and then two rapid shots close together and this was clear in your mind. Would you think that your memory at the time you gave your statement was reliable
1. as to the number of shots?
2. as to the shot pattern?

I might or might not correctly remember the number of shots. Many people did. Some did not. Some people did not recognize the first blast as a gunshot. Brehm can be seen still clapping his hands after JFK had brought his hands in front of his throat and slumped over following the second shot. At that point he apparently was not aware there was gunfire.

I don't think I would accurately remember the shot pattern if I wasn't trying to discern the shot pattern at the time of the event. What reason would I have to do that.

[Andrew Mason]

I might or might not correctly remember the number of shots.
….

I don't think I would accurately remember the shot pattern if I wasn't trying to discern the shot pattern at the time of the event. What reason would I have to do that.

The premise of my question was that you did clearly remember the number of shots because you also clearly remembered the pattern. |1   |2 3|.

So it appears that you don’t think you are capable of making observations that form clear memories that last for a few hours. I would suggest that you are in a small minority of the human population in that respect.

Many people did. Some did not. Some people did not recognize the first blast as a gunshot. Brehm can be seen still clapping his hands after JFK had brought his hands in front of his throat and slumped over following the second shot. At that point he apparently was not aware there was gunfire.

Does that mean they forgot that the first “horrible ear-shattering noise” had occurred seconds earlier after they heard more shots and realized what they were? Come on.  Try to make sense.

[John Corbett]

The premise of my question was that you did clearly remember the number of shots because you also clearly remembered the pattern. |1   |2 3|.

One might correctly remember one and not the other.
For the record, I didn't remember either. I was not in Dealey Plaza when the shooting took place. I was in 7th grade math class.

So it appears that you don’t think you are capable of making observations that form clear memories that last for a few hours.

I have said on a number of occasions that I might or might not remember specific details about an event. That makes me the same as the other 8 billion people on the planet.

I would suggest that you are in a small minority of the human population in that respect.

I would suggest you greatly overestimate the general populace's ability to perceive accurate details of an event, especially a shocking event that happens with no warning and lasts less than 10 seconds.

Does that mean they forgot that the first “horrible ear-shattering noise” had occurred seconds earlier after they heard more shots and realized what they were? Come on.  Try to make sense.

It's hard to forget something you didn't notice in the first place. Most people did hear 3 shots but some only remembered hearing 2. I find it probable that the one they either didn't hear or didn't remember hearing was the first shot. For whatever reason, that shot didn't seem to register with them. It's not hard to understand why that would be since the man they were all focusing on didn't seem to react to it either. He kept waving to the crowd and was slowly lowering his arm when he was struck by the second shot.

Do you have a better explanation for why some of the witnesses such as Jackie or Clint Hill only remembered 2 shots?

[Andrew Mason]

The head shot would have to have been fired at Z311 or earlier to cover the 88 yards before striking JFK's head at Z313. That is based on an estimated average velocity of 2000 fps.
88 yards is 264 feet.
264 / 2000 = 0.132 seconds to cover the 88 yards.
1 / 18.3 = 0.546.... elapsed time for a single frame.
0.132 / 0.546... = 2.4156 frames for the bullet to travel 88 yards

The survey data at CE884 puts the Kennedy to Rifle distance 218.0 feet at z255 and 265.3 feet at z313. That means that he travelled 47.3 feet in 58 frames. At that rate at z271 JBC was 233 feet from the rifle. At 2000 fps that means the trigger was pressed about 233/2000=116.5 ms earlier.

For the shot that struck at z313 when JFK was 265.3 feet from the rifle, the trigger would have been pulled 265.3/2000=133 ms earlier.

So we are talking about a difference of 16.5 ms or .0165 of a second

Since the exposure time of Zapruder’s camera was 1/40th of a second or 25 ms., there was 30 ms of non-exposure between frames. 

When I say z271-272 I mean the shot occurred at some time either very late during the exposure of z270 up to very early in the beginning of the exposure of z272.  Since the time between frames is 1000/18.3=55 ms, that provides a range of the time of the shot of 55+30=85 ms. The head shot could have occurred very late in the exposure of z312 to the middle of the exposure of z313.  That is about 45 ms. Total uncertainty is 130/2=65 ms=.065 sec.

So the time difference t between trigger pulls between the second shot striking JBC at z271-272 and the third shot striking JFK at z312 to z313 a distance of 32.3 feet farther from the rifle is:
t=(312-270)/18.3-(32.3/2000)  ± .065 seconds

t=(42)/18.3-.0165 ± .065 seconds

t=2.28  ± .065 seconds or 2.22 to 2.34 seconds

I don't suppose you considered the possibility that JFK's hair movement could be cause by the fact he is in a moving open top car.

Certainly. Hickey just said that JFK’s hair flew up at the moment he heard the second shot. There could have been movement of the air caused by something other than the bullet.  But that wouldn’t alter the observation that the hair flutter-which occurs at no other time-coincided with the sound of the second shot.  But I don’t see the hair of anyone else move.

Oswald could have fired a shot 2.3 seconds after a previous shot as long as he didn't bother to take time to aim the rifle. The FBI determined it would take a shooter a minimum of 2.4 seconds between shots if the shooter took time to aim.

The Warren Commission found that a minimum of about 2.3 seconds was required to fire, reload aim and fire again using Oswald’s rifle. This appears to be based on the FBI re-enactment using that rifle. FBI ballistics expert Robert Frazier, who actually fired 3
shots in 4.6 seconds, said “4.6 seconds is firing this weapon as fast as the bolt can be operated, I think”. (3H407). The FBI’s Ronald Simmons noted that one marksman fired three shots in 4.6 seconds using the telescopic sight and three shots in 4.45 seconds using the iron sights.(3H446). There was no time placed on the middle shots so we cannot determine the smallest interval between shots.

[Andrew Mason]

One might correctly remember one and not the other.
For the record, I didn't remember either. I was not in Dealey Plaza when the shooting took place. I was in 7th grade math class.
I have said on a number of occasions that I might or might not remember specific details about an event. That makes me the same as the other 8 billion people on the planet.

That misses the point.  Why would anyone provide a statement containing details that they did not remember?  I wasn’t expecting you to do that.  I asked whether, assuming that you gave a statement containing details that you did remember clearly in your mind whether you would maintain your statement was not reliable.  I thought it was a rhetorical question. Apparently, you have very low confidence in your ability to make observations that you can retain in memory for a few hours. Either that or you think you would make a statement to police authorities containing details that you could not recall.


I would suggest you greatly overestimate the general populace's ability to perceive accurate details of an event, especially a shocking event that happens with no warning and lasts less than 10 seconds.
It's hard to forget something you didn't notice in the first place. Most people did hear 3 shots but some only remembered hearing 2. I find it probable that the one they either didn't hear or didn't remember hearing was the first shot. For whatever reason, that shot didn't seem to register with them. It's not hard to understand why that would be since the man they were all focusing on didn't seem to react to it either. He kept waving to the crowd and was slowly lowering his arm when he was struck by the second shot.

Do you have a better explanation for why some of the witnesses such as Jackie or Clint Hill only remembered 2 shots?
[/quote]

[John Corbett]

The survey data at CE884 puts the Kennedy to Rifle distance 218.0 feet at z255 and 265.3 feet at z313. That means that he travelled 47.3 feet in 58 frames. At that rate at z271 JBC was 233 feet from the rifle. At 2000 fps that means the trigger was pressed about 233/2000=116.5 ms earlier.

Since it's survey data, I doubt it took into account the elevation. Adding the elevation increases the distance.

For the shot that struck at z313 when JFK was 265.3 feet from the rifle, the trigger would have been pulled 265.3/2000=133 ms earlier.

So we are talking about a difference of 16.5 ms or .0165 of a second

Since the exposure time of Zapruder’s camera was 1/40th of a second or 25 ms., there was 30 ms of non-exposure between frames.

It's a miniscule difference but since your data doesn't take into account elevation, it becomes even less relevant.

You are correct that there is a gap between each frame of the film when the camera isn't recording.

When I say z271-272 I mean the shot occurred at some time either very late during the exposure of z270 up to very early in the beginning of the exposure of z272.  Since the time between frames is 1000/18.3=55 ms, that provides a range of the time of the shot of 55+30=85 ms. The head shot could have occurred very late in the exposure of z312 to the middle of the exposure of z313.  That is about 45 ms. Total uncertainty is 130/2=65 ms=.065 sec.

So the time difference t between trigger pulls between the second shot striking JBC at z271-272 and the third shot striking JFK at z312 to z313 a distance of 32.3 feet farther from the rifle is:
t=(312-270)/18.3-(32.3/2000)  ± .065 seconds

t=(42)/18.3-.0165 ± .065 seconds

t=2.28  ± .065 seconds or 2.22 to 2.34 seconds

Even with your tweaking, you don't bring the time between shots to what the FBI determined was the minimum time needed to fire an aimed shot. Even that is a theoretical time, it's very unlikely Oswald would have tried to fire the rifle as fast as he could. Accuracy would be far more important than speed. That's why he took almost 5 seconds between the second and third shots.

Certainly. Hickey just said that JFK’s hair flew up at the moment he heard the second shot. There could have been movement of the air caused by something other than the bullet.  But that wouldn’t alter the observation that the hair flutter-which occurs at no other time-coincided with the sound of the second shot.  But I don’t see the hair of anyone else move.

What Hickey says doesn't establish the bullet caused his hair to fly up. The bullet would have arrived before the sound because the bullet was traveling almost twice the speed of sound.

The Warren Commission found that a minimum of about 2.3 seconds was required to fire, reload aim and fire again using Oswald’s rifle. This appears to be based on the FBI re-enactment using that rifle. FBI ballistics expert Robert Frazier, who actually fired 3
shots in 4.6 seconds, said “4.6 seconds is firing this weapon as fast as the bolt can be operated, I think”. (3H407). The FBI’s Ronald Simmons noted that one marksman fired three shots in 4.6 seconds using the telescopic sight and three shots in 4.45 seconds using the iron sights.(3H446). There was no time placed on the middle shots so we cannot determine the smallest interval between shots.

Why would you think Oswald was would try to fire his rifle as fast as was humanly possible? Was he trying to win a prize?