Were all three shots fired in 5.6 seconds?

[Lance Payette]

Dear FPL,

Ever heard of angular velocity?

ChatGPT:

While the traffic mast hypothesis is indeed often tied to "Z-107" in specific forensic models (such as Dale Myers'), your focus on "Z-124" highlights the peak tracking difficulty for the sniper. At "Z-124," the angular velocity was actually at its highest for the entire sequence, making it physically the most difficult shot for the shooter to coordinate.

1. Angular Velocity Peak

As the limousine moved away from the Depository, the required tracking motion for the sniper did not decrease linearly; it started fast and then "slowed down" as the distance increased:

At "Z-124": The pivoting required to track the target was approximately 8 degrees per second. While this seems slow on paper, for a sniper using a 4x scope with a limited field of view, this represents a significant and complex anatomical motion involving both horizontal and vertical adjustment.

At Z-224 and Z-313: By the time of the second and third shots, the required tracking movement had decreased by half. The target was moving more directly away from the sniper’s line of sight, meaning the rifle barely had to pivot at all to keep the crosshairs on JFK.

2. Why the Miss is "Strange" at "Z-124"

If the traffic mast was no longer an obstruction by "Z-124," the miss becomes more attributable to the dynamic geometry of the shot:

The "Lead" Problem: Although the car was moving nearly away, it still had a slight horizontal drift. At "Z-124," the target was at its closest point (approx. 100 feet), where any slight error in tracking speed is magnified.

Scope Parallax/Alignment:

Oswald’s 4x scope was notoriously misaligned, striking high and to the left. At the close range of "Z-124," this mechanical error is more pronounced than at 80 yards, where the bullet’s trajectory has more time to "settle" relative to the point of aim.

Trigger Jerk: Many marksmen suggest that the first shot of a high-stress event is the most likely to be "jerked." Given that this shot had the highest angular velocity of the three, a jerked trigger combined with the need to pivot the rifle at 8°/s makes a complete miss more plausible.

Summary of Difficulty

Shot Location    Distance (approx.)   Angular Velocity (Tracking)   Tracking Difficulty

"Z-124"   100–105 feet   ~8 degrees/sec   Highest

Z-224   190 feet   ~4 degrees/sec   Medium

Z-313   265 feet   ~2 degrees/sec   Lowest

By "Z-124," JFK’s head was moving faster relative to the sniper's field of view than it would be for the rest of the motorcade route, which likely contributed to the total miss.

. . . . . . .

-- Tom

The issue remains: Why does our "former Marine sharpshooter" TAKE this "highest difficulty" shot that requires him to contort himself and exposes him to the greatest risk of being seen? Is this because he is a "stupid former Marine sharpshooter," sort of the Wile E. Coyote of former Marine sharpshooters? Yes, we understand a Z-124 shot would have had obvious difficulties. That's why I don't think Oswald took it. Surely he had time and brains enough to know that being comfortably in place and waiting for the limo to emerge from the tree would be an easy shot and the way a prudent former Marine sharpshooter would do it.

[Tom Graves]

The issue remains: Why does our "former Marine sharpshooter" TAKE this "highest difficulty" shot that requires him to contort himself and exposes him to the greatest risk of being seen? Is this because he is a "stupid former Marine sharpshooter," sort of the Wile E. Coyote of former Marine sharpshooters? Yes, we understand a Z-124 shot would have had obvious difficulties. That's why I don't think Oswald took it. Surely he had time and brains enough to know that being comfortably in place and waiting for the limo to emerge from the tree would be an easy shot and the way a prudent former Marine sharpshooter would do it.

Dear FPL,

1. Maybe Oswald didn't realize how difficult a shot it would be.

2) Since the Secret Service follow-up car had just turned onto Elm Street at "Z-124," the agents in said car, "hung over" or not, would have had to break their necks to look up at Oswald's sixth-floor Sniper's Nest window.

-- Tom

[Lance Payette]

    Have YOU an explanation for the "getaway" car being absent from the Wiegman Film and roughly 15 seconds later being on the Couch/Darnell Films? Nobody caught this over the last 62+ years. This all began with my proving that the Huge Gates were "wide open" and therefore provided clandestine entry/exit from the TSBD. Those "wide open" Huge Gates are within a stone's throw of this "getaway" car. And, there is more to this. We know extremely little about the Elm St Ext. We also know extremely little about the train yard, which the Elm St Ext provides the only means of entry/exit.  (Hint, Hint).   

Well, yes, I do have an explanation: There is no reason to think it's a getaway car. If the conspiracy required a getaway car, then "in front of the TSBD on Elm Street" strikes me as about the least likely place within a 1.5 mile radius of the TSBD for said getaway car to be. One would think the vast open area behind the TSBD or down the block on Houston might be at least somewhat less Stooge-like. Have you perhaps seen "Bonnie & Clyde" one too many times?

One problem with the CT community is this absolute mania to be someone who Discovers Something New That No One Has Ever Noticed Before!!! This goes back to the earliest days of CT theorizing, with the scenarios becoming ever-more Three Stooges-like. Now we've reached the nadir of CT luminary Bart Kamp supposedly faking photos for reasons that don't help his Prayer Man theory at all but throw a monkey wrench into someone else's even wackier CT theory! The Huge Gates! The Getaway Car! The Fake Shelley and Fake Lovelady! Yee-ha! 

How the JFKA went down, more or less ...

[Tom Graves]

The issue remains: Why does our "former Marine sharpshooter" TAKE this "highest difficulty" shot that requires him to contort himself and exposes him to the greatest risk of being seen? Is this because he is a "stupid former Marine sharpshooter," sort of the Wile E. Coyote of former Marine sharpshooters? Yes, we understand a Z-124 shot would have had obvious difficulties. That's why I don't think Oswald took it. Surely he had time and brains enough to know that being comfortably in place and waiting for the limo to emerge from the tree would be an easy shot and the way a prudent former Marine sharpshooter would do it.

Dear FPL,

From your previous post:

"'Former Marine sharpshooter' ... 'missing everything' at Z-124. Do we see a troubling disconnect here?"

Compare that lame statement with what you said, above, regarding the now-obvious difficulty of the shot.

Do we see a disconnect, here, Counselor?

-- Tom

[Lance Payette]

Dear FPL,

1. Maybe Oswald didn't realize how difficult a shot it would be.

2) Since the Secret Service follow-up car had just turned onto Elm Street at "Z-124," the "hung over' agents in said car would have had to break their necks to look up at Oswald's sixth-floor Sniper's Nest window.

-- Tom

Oh, dear, now we're getting desperate.

1. So if he didn't recognize the difficulty he was in fact not the sharpest "former Marine sharpshooter" tool in the shed? Even if this is true, he surely knew he'd have to contort himself and get in position for any subsequent shots. Why would he go through this exercise - perhaps he assumed he'd need only the Z-124 shot (which doesn't seem consistent with the way the boxes were stacked)? I realize you're absolutely enamored of the Z-124 theory, but as far as I can tell it's based entirely on supposed "witness reactions," which seems like thin gruel at best.

2. The risk of being seen was scarcely limited to the SS agents. At Z-124 pretty much everyone in the vicinity would have been looking more in the direction of Oswald than after the limo was well past and moving away from his position.

(Is your new avatar someone famous, because I have no clue? I thought we had agreed you were going to give QAnon Shaman a tryout.)

[Lance Payette]

Dear FPL,

From your previous post:

"'Former Marine sharpshooter' ... 'missing everything' at Z-124. Do we see a troubling disconnect here?"

Compare that lame statement with what you said, above, regarding the now-obvious difficulty of the shot.

Do we see a disconnect, here, Counselor?

-- Tom

Alas, no we do not see a disconnect. I was playing on your turf, as we retired former lawyers are inclined to do when we are confident of our client's position. Many the happy motion for summary judgment have I filed that began "Assuming arguendo, for purposes of this motion only, that what the plaintiff claims is in fact true, we are nevertheless entitled to summary judgment because ... blah, blah, blah." My point was simply that since Oswald was in fact a former Marine sharpshooter, why would he not have recognized what your ChatGPT friends deem the obvious difficulty of the shot and why would he have taken it despite the obvious difficulty and greater risks of being seen, blah, blah, blah?

[Royell Storing]

Dear FPL,

1. Maybe Oswald didn't realize how difficult a shot it would be.

2) Since the Secret Service follow-up car had just turned onto Elm Street at "Z-124," the agents in said car, "hung over" or not, would have had to break their necks to look up at Oswald's sixth-floor Sniper's Nest window.

-- Tom

    SS Agents being unable to, "...look up at Oswald's sixth-floor Sniper's Nest window". Because they were, "hung over"?  You do know that this claim of yours also justifies SA Hickey allegedly firing the AR-15 inside Dealey Plaza? Think about it.