A thought exercise: A Mafia conspiracy is established beyond any doubt ...

[Lance Payette]

As your self-appointed philosopher-in-residence (this week, anyway), Michael’s thread about the respective psychological motivations of CTers and LNers prompted this thought exercise. We philosophers are prone to thought exercises when inclement weather prevents us from hitting 5-irons into our backyard nets. But, hey, thought exercises are how Einstein hit upon his theory of relativity – so show a little respect for this effort, willya?

If there were an actual conspiracy, the most likely and plausible scenario by far – by far, I repeat – is a tight Mafia hit organized by Marcello. In terms of motive and means, the Mafia in general and Marcello in particular are way at the top of the list. A hit on JFK would have been little more than business as usual. It would have required minimal planning and no more than a bare handful of highly trusted associates.

Oswald? My guess would be that his high-profile activities in New Orleans started wheels turning that otherwise might not have turned. “Good Lord, if we can pin the assassination on this preening pro-Castro punk, it just might have the added bonus of bringing down Castro and restoring our lucrative Cuban empire. This is too good to pass up.”

Hence, even though the original plan was just to have a pro whack JFK to avenge RFK’s humiliation of Marcello and get the damn DOJ to back off on organized crime, now we’re going to include this Oswald dope. He’ll think he’s part of a pro-Castro hit with our pro in the Dal Tex building being just a fellow Castro fanatic with dreams of escaping to Cuba. If he’s caught or captured, it makes no difference because all he could ever say is “Viva Fidel!” – exactly what we want him to say. It’s perfect, I tell ya.

(Ruby, of course, is not part of this scenario. Let’s have a little respect for Marcello’s professionalism, OK? Ruby just did what he did for his own purposes and we here in the Marcello camp don’t really care one way or the other.)

I’m not saying this is what occurred, mind you, but it’s certainly the most plausible conspiracy scenario by far. There is no need for oodles and gobs of participants or any evidence-tampering or cover-up. It’s just a standard, easy-shot hit of the sort our pro pulls off eight times a year. There are virtually no risks. Our pro is going to be in and out of the Dal Tex building in four minutes, tops. Bada boom, bada bing.

For our thought exercise, let’s assume this conspiracy is established beyond any reasonable doubt, to the extent that the verdict of history is actually changed. The history books now say that Marcello had JFK whacked, the hitman escaped and Oswald was a dupe.

Do you think Newman, Morley, Simpich, DiEugenio, Stone, the Harvey & Lee crowd and all the other LBJ/CIA/Etc. ideologues are now happy? Do you think they’re going to crawl back into their holes and say “I’ll be damned, it’s been solved.” Do you think they are even going to miss a beat? Hell, no. They will shift their fury toward the “crazy Marcello narrative” and go right on peddling their conspiratorial wares. Books, blogs, websites, podcasts, conferences!

How about the LN ideologues? Well, they’re probably happier than the Big Conspiracy folks because a Mafia hit doesn’t really challenge their worldview. I’m not sure how they would react, after spending decades vehemently defending every last nut-and-bolt of the LN narrative and dismissing CTers as crackpots. My guess is, there would still be some LN resistance, although it's hard to see what form it might take.

How about those of us for whom the JFKA is mostly just an interesting whodunnit, more like a big jigsaw puzzle? Our hobby is now gone, and the puzzle turned out to be not nearly as interesting as most of us had hoped. Are we happy? Will the entire cottage industry called “JFKA research” now disappear – no more books, no more conferences, no more podcasts, no more forums? I kind of doubt it.

My guess is that the cottage industry called “JFKA research” is now so entrenched, so much a part of the fabric of the participants’ lives, that little would change. People would not simply shrug and move on to UFOs, Bigfoot and 9/11 to see what they’re all about.

There’s a famous social psychology book from 1956 called When Prophecy Fails. It concerns an apocalyptic UFO cult, “The Seekers.” They were firmly committed to a massively destructive worldwide flood on December 21, 1954. When that didn’t happen, did the cult go poof? Absolutely not. They chugged right along, making excuses, altering their beliefs as necessary and winning new converts. This scenario has repeated itself umpteen times, right up to the level of more than one Christian denomination with millions of followers.

There is no reason to think anything would cause the “JFKA research” industry (or hobby, or cult, or whatever) to collapse. To a very large extent – almost entirely, I would say – the whole thing at this point is really not about the JFKA at all. It has a momentum of its own.

Anyone seriously think ironclad proof of a Mafia conspiracy would put an end to all this?

[Charles Collins]

As your self-appointed philosopher-in-residence (this week, anyway), Michael’s thread about the respective psychological motivations of CTers and LNers prompted this thought exercise. We philosophers are prone to thought exercises when inclement weather prevents us from hitting 5-irons into our backyard nets. But, hey, thought exercises are how Einstein hit upon his theory of relativity – so show a little respect for this effort, willya?

If there were an actual conspiracy, the most likely and plausible scenario by far – by far, I repeat – is a tight Mafia hit organized by Marcello. In terms of motive and means, the Mafia in general and Marcello in particular are way at the top of the list. A hit on JFK would have been little more than business as usual. It would have required minimal planning and no more than a bare handful of highly trusted associates.

Oswald? My guess would be that his high-profile activities in New Orleans started wheels turning that otherwise might not have turned. “Good Lord, if we can pin the assassination on this preening pro-Castro punk, it just might have the added bonus of bringing down Castro and restoring our lucrative Cuban empire. This is too good to pass up.”

Hence, even though the original plan was just to have a pro whack JFK to avenge RFK’s humiliation of Marcello and get the damn DOJ to back off on organized crime, now we’re going to include this Oswald dope. He’ll think he’s part of a pro-Castro hit with our pro in the Dal Tex building being just a fellow Castro fanatic with dreams of escaping to Cuba. If he’s caught or captured, it makes no difference because all he could ever say is “Viva Fidel!” – exactly what we want him to say. It’s perfect, I tell ya.

(Ruby, of course, is not part of this scenario. Let’s have a little respect for Marcello’s professionalism, OK? Ruby just did what he did for his own purposes and we here in the Marcello camp don’t really care one way or the other.)

I’m not saying this is what occurred, mind you, but it’s certainly the most plausible conspiracy scenario by far. There is no need for oodles and gobs of participants or any evidence-tampering or cover-up. It’s just a standard, easy-shot hit of the sort our pro pulls off eight times a year. There are virtually no risks. Our pro is going to be in and out of the Dal Tex building in four minutes, tops. Bada boom, bada bing.

For our thought exercise, let’s assume this conspiracy is established beyond any reasonable doubt, to the extent that the verdict of history is actually changed. The history books now say that Marcello had JFK whacked, the hitman escaped and Oswald was a dupe.

Do you think Newman, Morley, Simpich, DiEugenio, Stone, the Harvey & Lee crowd and all the other LBJ/CIA/Etc. ideologues are now happy? Do you think they’re going to crawl back into their holes and say “I’ll be damned, it’s been solved.” Do you think they are even going to miss a beat? Hell, no. They will shift their fury toward the “crazy Marcello narrative” and go right on peddling their conspiratorial wares. Books, blogs, websites, podcasts, conferences!

How about the LN ideologues? Well, they’re probably happier than the Big Conspiracy folks because a Mafia hit doesn’t really challenge their worldview. I’m not sure how they would react, after spending decades vehemently defending every last nut-and-bolt of the LN narrative and dismissing CTers as crackpots. My guess is, there would still be some LN resistance, although it's hard to see what form it might take.

How about those of us for whom the JFKA is mostly just an interesting whodunnit, more like a big jigsaw puzzle? Our hobby is now gone, and the puzzle turned out to be not nearly as interesting as most of us had hoped. Are we happy? Will the entire cottage industry called “JFKA research” now disappear – no more books, no more conferences, no more podcasts, no more forums? I kind of doubt it.

My guess is that the cottage industry called “JFKA research” is now so entrenched, so much a part of the fabric of the participants’ lives, that little would change. People would not simply shrug and move on to UFOs, Bigfoot and 9/11 to see what they’re all about.

There’s a famous social psychology book from 1956 called When Prophecy Fails. It concerns an apocalyptic UFO cult, “The Seekers.” They were firmly committed to a massively destructive worldwide flood on December 21, 1954. When that didn’t happen, did the cult go poof? Absolutely not. They chugged right along, making excuses, altering their beliefs as necessary and winning new converts. This scenario has repeated itself umpteen times, right up to the level of more than one Christian denomination with millions of followers.

There is no reason to think anything would cause the “JFKA research” industry (or hobby, or cult, or whatever) to collapse. To a very large extent – almost entirely, I would say – the whole thing at this point is really not about the JFKA at all. It has a momentum of its own.

Anyone seriously think ironclad proof of a Mafia conspiracy would put an end to all this?

Anyone seriously think ironclad proof of a Mafia conspiracy would put an end to all this?


No, it wouldn't. The controversy will continue forever regardless. There will continue to be inconsistencies in the evidence. That is normal and expected, but people will continue to try and make something out of the inconsistencies. And if there are no inconsistencies in the evidence, then some people will still claim that the evidence is faked. Bottom line is that some people will believe what they want to believe no matter what.

On the other hand, I believe that most LNers would be able to accept a conspiracy that still had LHO as the only shooter. Perhaps a conspiracy where LHO was encouraged to do the deed by either the Cubans or the mob. But I think that a conspiracy with another shooter involved would be difficult for LNers to believe at this point in time based on what we know of the existing evidence. The evidence that constitutes "ironclad proof" for one person might not be adequate for another person to come to the conclusion that it is "ironclad proof." In other words, "proof" is in the mind of each person.

[Lance Payette]

Anyone seriously think ironclad proof of a Mafia conspiracy would put an end to all this?


No, it wouldn't. The controversy will continue forever regardless. There will continue to be inconsistencies in the evidence. That is normal and expected, but people will continue to try and make something out of the inconsistencies. And if there are no inconsistencies in the evidence, then some people will still claim that the evidence is faked. Bottom line is that some people will believe what they want to believe no matter what.

On the other hand, I believe that most LNers would be able to accept a conspiracy that still had LHO as the only shooter. Perhaps a conspiracy where LHO was encouraged to do the deed by either the Cubans or the mob. But I think that a conspiracy with another shooter involved would be difficult for LNers to believe at this point in time based on what we know of the existing evidence. The evidence that constitutes "ironclad proof" for one person might not be adequate for another person to come to the conclusion that it is "ironclad proof." In other words, "proof" is in the mind of each person.

Thanks, Charles! I'm so used to being ignored that I'm deeply touched by any response. 

Part of my thought experiment is the assumption that the Marcello conspiracy actually IS proven beyond doubt- so to deny it is to deny reality in the same way that claiming the earth is flat is to deny reality. In my experiment, therefore, proof is not really just in the eye of the beholder.

I think this actually is an interesting question for each of us: If a Mafia conspiracy (or any other explanation I now reject) were established beyond any doubt, what would be my reaction - and what does this say about my involvement with JFKA research? What is really my purpose for being involved?

The LN narrative has survived for more than 60 years and has convinced many of the best minds who have dived into the matter. Yet at damn near every stage of the LN narrative, there are puzzles, inconsistencies and improbabilities - logical, evidential, you name it. There are, it seems to me, far more genuine puzzles than would be found in a typical murder case or the best Agatha Christie novel.

Part of this, as I always say, is that JFK was hated by so many diverse individuals and groups, and so many stood to benefit from his demise, that weaving a reasonably plausible conspiracy theory is child's play. Hence, we have umpteen reasonably plausible conspiracy theories at war with each other as well as with the LN narrative.

As a provisional LNer, I nevertheless cannot avoid the nagging feeling that there are just too many puzzles, inconsistencies and improbabilities for the LN narrative to be the entire answer. Since the Marcello scenario that I described is my best guess at what the "something more" may have been, I'd obviously have no problem accepting it! The challenge for me would be if something like Harvey & Lee, which I now regard as flat-out nutty, were actually established as true.

Would I shrug and say, "Hard to believe, but Armstrong and his minions were right"? Yes, I think I would, but I don't think I have the level of interest or commitment as those for whom the JFKA has ideological significance or is a consuming, quasi-religious interest.

Perhaps instead of posting my thought experiment, I should've simply asked people to fill in the blank: "I am interested in the JFKA to the extent of spending a great deal of time on it and participating on a forum such as this because _______________." The problem would be to get people to answer honestly, as opposed to what they think they "should" say. I suppose I'd say "because I find the case so full of puzzles, inconsistencies and improbabilities that it's the ultimate jigsaw puzzle - really just this and nothing more, little different from my interest in several other subjects like UFOs that I find intellectually challenging."

As you suggest, and I firmly believe, there never will be the sort of unequivocal proof my experiment posits. The puzzles, inconskistencies and improbabilities will never allow this.

[Charles Collins]

Thanks, Charles! I'm so used to being ignored that I'm deeply touched by any response. 

Part of my thought experiment is the assumption that the Marcello conspiracy actually IS proven beyond doubt- so to deny it is to deny reality in the same way that claiming the earth is flat is to deny reality. In my experiment, therefore, proof is not really just in the eye of the beholder.

I think this actually is an interesting question for each of us: If a Mafia conspiracy (or any other explanation I now reject) were established beyond any doubt, what would be my reaction - and what does this say about my involvement with JFKA research? What is really my purpose for being involved?

The LN narrative has survived for more than 60 years and has convinced many of the best minds who have dived into the matter. Yet at damn near every stage of the LN narrative, there are puzzles, inconsistencies and improbabilities - logical, evidential, you name it. There are, it seems to me, far more genuine puzzles than would be found in a typical murder case or the best Agatha Christie novel.

Part of this, as I always say, is that JFK was hated by so many diverse individuals and groups, and so many stood to benefit from his demise, that weaving a reasonably plausible conspiracy theory is child's play. Hence, we have umpteen reasonably plausible conspiracy theories at war with each other as well as with the LN narrative.

As a provisional LNer, I nevertheless cannot avoid the nagging feeling that there are just too many puzzles, inconsistencies and improbabilities for the LN narrative to be the entire answer. Since the Marcello scenario that I described is my best guess at what the "something more" may have been, I'd obviously have no problem accepting it! The challenge for me would be if something like Harvey & Lee, which I now regard as flat-out nutty, were actually established as true.

Would I shrug and say, "Hard to believe, but Armstrong and his minions were right"? Yes, I think I would, but I don't think I have the level of interest or commitment as those for whom the JFKA has ideological significance or is a consuming, quasi-religious interest.

Perhaps instead of posting my thought experiment, I should've simply asked people to fill in the blank: "I am interested in the JFKA to the extent of spending a great deal of time on it and participating on a forum such as this because _______________." The problem would be to get people to answer honestly, as opposed to what they think they "should" say. I suppose I'd say "because I find the case so full of puzzles, inconsistencies and improbabilities that it's the ultimate jigsaw puzzle - really just this and nothing more, little different from my interest in several other subjects like UFOs that I find intellectually challenging."

As you suggest, and I firmly believe, there never will be the sort of unequivocal proof my experiment posits. The puzzles, inconskistencies and improbabilities will never allow this.

Curiosity about the details of exactly what happened, how it happened, and why it happened is what keeps many of us involved in the JFKA. If all the questions about all of the details were answered in a way that left no doubt whatsoever, then I think the controversy might wane a little bit (at least for most of us).

As in life in general, the more I learn about the JFKA, I realize that there is so much more that I do not know. That curiosity and the satisfaction of learning new things is a large part of what keeps us interested. I participate in the forum to try to get the viewpoints of people who know more than I do and to hopefully learn something new in the process.

The main unanswered questions that intrigue me at this point in time revolve around looking for the elusive evidence of an early missed shot. This subject seems to also attract a lot of interest from other forum members. These type of details are not necessary to know, and may not ever be answered. But that doesn’t curtail the curiousity or stop us from continuing to look for evidence.

[Benjamin Cole]

LP--

I like your posts. I do not ignore you.

[Tom Graves]

LP--

I like your posts. I do not ignore you.

How sweet!

[Lance Payette]

How sweet!

It was, wasn't it?

I'm glad to see the cease-and-desist letter from the Caped Factoid Buster's attorneys caused you to quickly abandon you Batman avatar, but I must say the new one doesn't quite work as an avatar. How about QAnon Shaman - wouldn't that be kind of fun?

It occurred to me that my Mafia example was rather perfect. I chose it only because I find it the most plausible CT scenario and the sort of thing that might have some potential to be definitively established.

But what's perfect is that, despite its plausibility, it receives virtually NO attention at all in the JFKA research community. I recall mentioning this once to Pat Speer, who agreed. Oh, the Mafia may be mentioned - but it's always an afterthought in connection with LBJ, the CIA and the other ideologically popular suspects. Why is this?

It's obvious: Because the JFKA research community is almost ENTIRELY driven by ideology. Without the Newman, Morley, Simpich, DiEugenio wing of the conspiracy sanitarium, I firmly believe the research community and public interest in the JFKA would pretty much go poof. The Mafia? Yawn. No, we ideologues demand a deep dark internal conspiracy at the highest levels that will explain the entire subsequent history of the country. Even your own ideology-driven theory just doesn't cut it. The KGB? Yawn.

The Mafia is also insufficiently sexy for the hordes for whom the JFKA is just a hobby. There is simply no need for all the intrigue, the evidence and witness tampering, the massive cover-up. It's just another hit, a puzzle that says "For Ages 6-9" on the box, albeit garnished with a doofus in the sixth floor window to give it a bit of pro-Castro flavor.

Think about that QAnon Shaman suggestion. If you don't adopt it, I may have to.

[Tom Graves]

How about QAnon Shaman - wouldn't that be kind of fun?

Dear FPR,

Problem is, I've heard he's off with your buddy, Mike "Q" Flynn, somewhere now.

-- Tom