Arlen Specter's SBT Notebook

[Andrew Mason]

….they could easily see that any theory that needs to be substituted for the Single-Bullet Conclusion lacks all credibility and can easily be shot full of holes via common sense alone.

The evidence is overwhelming that all three shots were fired by a single shooter from the SN and that the shooter was Oswald. That conclusion is not driven by common sense. It is compelled by the evidence.

Prior to Arlen Specter foisting his “common sense” on the WC the FBI was of the view that none of the three shots missed: the first struck JFK in the neck when JFK was opposite the lamp post near the Thornton sign (z190); the second struck JBC in the back around z275 causing all his wounds, and the third struck JFK in the head at z312-313. This sequence is apparent in the FBI working model:


Then the US Army ballistics experts showed that the bullet exiting JFK’s neck was still moving at significant speed.  However, Dr. Light who was Chief of the Wound Assessment Branch at Edgewood Arsenal and a medical doctor who had practiced as a pathologist and whose area of study and work was the pathology of wounds, stated that JBC’s back wound is consistent with having been hit by a pristine bullet. The main reason he thought that it hadn’t had nothing to do with the wound characteristics but with the fact that JBC was in front of JFK: 5H94-96. He stated that he could not tell if the bullet that struck JBC in the back had been yawing: “I don’t feel too certain that it was yawing”.

So according to the most qualified expert on wound assessment, Dr. Light, the wounds in JBC were consistent with a pristine bullet hitting JBC.  If all the witnesses who said that the third shot occurred rapidly after the second and the Connallys, Dave Powers, Gayle Newman were right that JBC was hit on the second shot,  I don’t see any need for the SBT. 

 The rest of the evidence tells you that Oswald did it.

[Tom Graves]

The evidence is overwhelming that all three shots were fired by a single shooter from the SN and that the shooter was Oswald. That conclusion is not driven by common sense. It is compelled by the evidence.

Prior to Arlen Specter foisting his “common sense” on the WC the FBI was of the view that none of the three shots missed: the first struck JFK in the neck when JFK was opposite the lamp post near the Thornton sign (z190); the second struck JBC in the back around z275 causing all his wounds, and the third struck JFK in the head at z312-313.

Then the US Army ballistics experts showed that the bullet exiting JFK’s neck was still moving at significant speed.  However, Dr. Light who was Chief of the Wound Assessment Branch at Edgewood Arsenal and a medical doctor who had practiced as a pathologist and whose area of study and work was the pathology of wounds, stated that JBC’s back wound is consistent with having been hit by a pristine bullet. The main reason he thought that it hadn’t had nothing [sic] to do with the wound characteristics but with the fact that JBC was in front of JFK: 5H94-96. He stated that he could not tell if the bullet that struck JBC in the back had been yawing: “I don’t feel too certain that it was yawing”.

So according to the most qualified expert on wound assessment, Dr. Light, the wounds in JBC were consistent with a pristine bullet hitting JBC.  If all the witnesses who said that the third shot occurred rapidly after the second and the Connallys, Dave Powers, Gayle Newman were right that JBC was hit on the second shot,  I don’t see any need for the SBT. 

 The rest of the evidence tells you that Oswald did it.

The Carcano bullet that was filmed in super slow motion as it passed through and exited a block of ballistic gel in "Cold Case JFK" started yawing within a couple of feet (actually started yawing before it exited the block of ballistics gel), but not all that much.

Point being: the slightly elliptical entry wound in JBC's back could have been caused by a slightly yawning CE-399.

Interestingly, the directionality of the axes of the entry wounds in JFK and JBC were significantly different.

Grok:

JFK’s wound had a vertical major axis (aligned with the body’s longitudinal axis, reflecting the bullet’s downward path from the sniper’s nest). Connally’s wound had a horizontal major axis (lateral, due to the bullet’s tumble after passing through JFK, causing a wider, flatter entry). The single-bullet theory supports this, as the bullet’s yaw after exiting JFK’s neck would reorient its impact angle on Connally.

Contextual Notes:

The vertical axis of JFK’s wound aligns with the shooter’s position (sixth floor, Texas School Book Depository, ~60 feet above ground), creating a downward trajectory.

Connally’s horizontal axis reflects the bullet’s instability (tumbling), as confirmed by forensic analyses (HSCA, 1979) and the rib fracture pattern, which follows a lateral path.

Some discrepancies exist in wound descriptions due to surgical debridement (Connally’s wound was enlarged to ~3 cm post-surgery) and initial mis-probing of JFK’s wound, but the axis orientations are consistently described as above in primary sources.

No X posts or web sources (searched up to September 15, 2025) provide contradictory forensic details on axis orientation; most reinforce the Warren/HSCA findings.

Thus, the major axis of JFK’s back wound (vertical) was oriented differently from Connally’s back wound (horizontal).

[Andrew Mason]

Thus, the major axis of JFK’s back wound (vertical) was oriented differently from Connally’s back wound (horizontal).

That could also be explained by different shots 4 seconds apart between which the vertical and horizontal angle from the SN to the car changed, and at which the vertical and horizontal orientation of the surfaces struck differed markedly.

JFK was leaning forward so the back entry surface was aligned with the bullet trajectory at z190-200. Whereas at z271 JBC was twisted around and leaning back so the surface of the right armpit relative to the bullet path was not aligned.

[Michael T. Griffith]

The evidence is overwhelming that all three shots were fired by a single shooter from the SN and that the shooter was Oswald. That conclusion is not driven by common sense. It is compelled by the evidence.

Not on this planet.

Prior to Arlen Specter foisting his “common sense” on the WC the FBI was of the view that none of the three shots missed: the first struck JFK in the neck when JFK was opposite the lamp post near the Thornton sign (z190); the second struck JBC in the back around z275 causing all his wounds, and the third struck JFK in the head at z312-313. This sequence is apparent in the FBI working model:

I suggest doing some research on the origins of the SBT. Specter only concocted the SBT when he realized the timing problem of the closeness of two of the shots. His determination to push the SBT, even though his own experts said it was bunk, increased after the Tague wounding could no longer be ignored.

Then the US Army ballistics experts showed that the bullet exiting JFK’s neck was still moving at significant speed.  However, Dr. Light who was Chief of the Wound Assessment Branch at Edgewood Arsenal and a medical doctor who had practiced as a pathologist and whose area of study and work was the pathology of wounds, stated that JBC’s back wound is consistent with having been hit by a pristine bullet. The main reason he thought that it hadn’t had nothing to do with the wound characteristics but with the fact that JBC was in front of JFK: 5H94-96. He stated that he could not tell if the bullet that struck JBC in the back had been yawing: “I don’t feel too certain that it was yawing”.

I feel sorry for Dr. Light. He was under a lot of pressure. He knew what was expected of him and, sadly, he usually cooperated. He should have known that the bullet that hit Connally was not yawing because the back wound was only 1.5 cm wide, the same width as JFK's rear head entry wound, and because the wound path through Connally was so narrow that when the bullet smashed the fifth rib it did little damage to the surrounding tissue, as Dr. Shaw explained.

The yawing myth came along after it was realized that CE 399 was traveling sideways when it hit whatever it hit.

So according to the most qualified expert on wound assessment, Dr. Light, the wounds in JBC were consistent with a pristine bullet hitting JBC.  If all the witnesses who said that the third shot occurred rapidly after the second and the Connallys, Dave Powers, Gayle Newman were right that JBC was hit on the second shot,  I don’t see any need for the SBT.

 

Just FYI, Dr. Light was not the most qualified expert on wound assessment. Dr. Dolce was. Dolce had more experience with gunshot wounds than Light did. Anyway, Light deserves some credit for equivocating about the bullet that hit Connally, but Light did end up endorsing the SBT.

The rest of the evidence tells you that Oswald did it.

No, it does not. Even Chief Curry later admitted they didn't have any evidence that put Oswald in the sniper's window with a rifle in his hand. The NAA testing on Oswald right-cheek paraffin cast found no chemical indications that he had fired a rifle on 11/22, and the NAA test process was confirmed as 100% reliable via control testing. Evidence that surfaced in the 1990s shows that Oswald was not on the sixth floor during the shooting. VSA polygraph analysis of Oswald's filmed denial of guilt to journalists indicates he was telling the truth. Oswald's Marine Corps rifle scores and WC's own rifle test clearly prove that Oswald did not have the marksmanship skills to perform the alleged shooting feat. And on and on we could go.

[Tom Graves]

Specter only concocted the SBT when he realized the timing problem of the closeness of two of the shots. His determination to push the SBT, even though his own experts said it was bunk, increased after the Tague wounding could no longer be ignored.

Dear Comrade Griffith,

If Specter's experts thought his Single Bullet Hypothesis was "bunk," then they were almost as full of beans as you are.

The Single Bullet Fact is counterintuitive, so why begrudge Specter for having to "come up" with a hypothesis that would plausibly explain Tague's wounding timing-wise, and account for all of the wounds to JFK and JBC not only over a seemingly impossible period of time, but in a scenario in which one of the three shots (the first one at or near limousine "Point A") missed everything and another one (at Z-313) "only" struck JFK's head, and based largely (luckily for you and all of the tinfoil-hat JFKA CTs out there!) on a film in which JFK and JBC passed behind a large sign right at the critical moment, and on earwitness' statements regarding the number and timing of the shots they heard or thought they heard in the echo chamber known as Dealey Plaza?

-- Tom

[Andrew Mason]

I suggest doing some research on the origins of the SBT. Specter only concocted the SBT when he realized the timing problem of the closeness of two of the shots. His determination to push the SBT, even though his own experts said it was bunk, increased after the Tague wounding could no longer be ignored.

Have you read David Belin's book Final Disclosure?  Belin credits Specter with coming up with the SBT after he found an expert (apparently FBI's Robert Frazier) who said that JBC could not have been hit after z240 assuming the bullet did not deflect on striking Connally's rib.  That suggests that Specter came up with the SBT, as you suggest, to deal with the timing problem that a wounding of JBC before z240 presents. Specter himself, however, maintained that the primary reason for the SBT is the absence of marks in the car from the bullet that passed through JFK's neck.  This fits with what Specter said in an interview with Life Magazine in 1966 and published November 25, 1966 (A Matter of Reasonable Doubt) at p. 48B:

• "One of our most impressive pieces of evidence,” says Specter, “is the
  FBI report on an examination of the limousine. It concludes that
  no part of the car’s interior was struck by a whole bullet.” ...
  "Where, if it didn't hit Connally, did that bullet go? This is the single most
  compelling reason why I concluded that one bullet hit both men".

I don't disagree with Specter.  I just suggest that Connally was hit in two different places that could well have been exposed to a shot from the SN through JFK's midline, the least likely of which is his right armpit. the conclusion that the bullet struck JBC on the right side after passing through JFK is not the most reasonable one.

Just FYI, Dr. Light was not the most qualified expert on wound assessment. Dr. Dolce was. Dolce had more experience with gunshot wounds than Light did.

Dr. Dolce did not testify before the WC.  He was a junior technician to the technician who assisted in JFK's autopsy.  I am not aware he had anything to do with Connally.

[Lance Payette]

I asked AI to settle this, and it came up with the following, which I thought was pretty insightful.

Is no one else finding this all kind of humorous? I do like Andrew's explanation, since a non-SBT LN narrative always appeals to me. Toss in a fragment from the head wound and I have my New Favorite Theory, thereby supplanting the Phantom Shot, which is hereby demoted to my Alternative Favorite Theory.

[Tom Graves]

I asked AI to settle this, and it came up with the following, which I thought was pretty insightful. Is no one else finding this all kind of humorous? I do like Andrew's explanation, since a non-SBT LN narrative always appeals to me. Toss in a fragment from the head wound and I have my New Favorite Theory, thereby supplanting the Phantom Shot, which is hereby demoted to my Alternative Favorite Theory.

Dear Fancy Pants Lance,

You're quite the hoot!

-- Tom