John Orr's analysis of the shots

[Lance Payette]

You have demonstrated you are well read on all facets of the subject but for some reason you are waffling between them unable to decide what is the answer. Instead, you appear to be trying to pick and choose different aspects of the individual theories comprising the assassination in an attempt to reach a middle ground answer. It is alright to make a decision. What is the answer? There really is a black and white answer. What do you think happened in that 6 seconds in Dallas?

As with virtually all areas of Weirdness in which I am deeply steeped, including religion, the more I know the less sure I am.

With the JFKA, there is the physical aspect of Dealey Plaza. I lean toward the LN narrative, either the two- or three-shot variety. I recall when I got into guns back in the 1970s, the importance of not snapping the trigger without an empty shell in the chamber was EMPHASIZED as though it were critical. If Oswald just grabbed his guns as they were, which I believe he did, it's possible there was a dry firing round in both the Carcano and the revolver. That said, some of what occurred (yes, including the SBT) is difficult to accept.

Then there is the Oswald aspect. I think I know him as well as anyone else in the JFKA community, and the whole thing is a very large puzzle to me. Why he decided to do this, what he was attempting to do after he did it, and how he remained so stoic after having done it, are to me very large mysteries. Hence the very different, cardboard cutout Oswalds that we see plugged into the different conspiracy theories only because he can't be ignored.

Then we have the added complexity that JFK was hated by so many diverse people and groups, and so many stood to benefit from his death, that the involvement of at least some of them seems almost inevitable. Some of them, such as the Mafia, had FAR better motives than did Oswald, and a hit in Dealey Plaza would have been business as usual.

To me, it's like trying to assemble a coherent picture when you've been given pieces from four different jigsaw puzzles - damn difficult. The easiest way out is to accept the LN narrative and chalk up Oswald to an unsolvable mystery - but, alas for me, the unsolvable mystery of Oswald is the most interesting part of the whole thing. That's my real quest: How do we explain Oswald in a convincing way?

[Charles Collins]

One of my best friends is internationally known in the UFO community - he was on the Tonight Show and that sort of thing. He now believes we live in a virtual reality, basically a cosmic software program. He believes certain events, including the Titanic and the JFKA, didn't just happen but were basically programmed for larger purposes than the event itself. (As it happens the Titanic has been one of my fascinations since I was a kid!) So, there is a genuinely "preternatural" angle for you ...

Now that sounds a lot like what we hear in church every Sunday morning. I think in general most folks have a need to believe in a supernatural being (or program if you will). I think it helps us cope with the fact that (as JFK put it) “we are all mortal.”

I could be wrong, but perhaps that is somewhat related to the CT mindset. A need to believe there was a greater force than just LHO involved.

On the other hand, the LN mindset accepts what happened for what it is. There could still be a supernatural being involved (and a greater purpose). But without any credible evidence, it just wasn’t the mafia, CIA, Cubans, etc.

[Tim Nickerson]

Wrong mark, Josiah was referring to the mark left by the magazine follower, not the dented lip.

Thompson claimed that "the only mark borne by the dented case, linking it to Oswald's rifle, could not have been incurred on November 22". Frazier did not use the extractor or the ejector marks made on CE-143 to match it to the rifle. He used the marks made on it by the firing pin and bolt face of the rifle to make that positive match. 

The dent in CE-543 was duplicated numerous times by the HSCA firearms panel when ejecting spent shell casings from the rifle.

No- The HSCA never duplicated the dent.

Additionally, the HSCA never produced a shell with the dent like CE 543.

JFK Exhibit F-100: Four Shells from a Firing Test Conducted by the HSCA Firearms Panel. Note that these shells are only slightly deformed and have no dent that resembles the dent in CE 543

The House Select Committee used a different Carcano, not LHO's

Thompson, who viewed all the shells having been test fired in LHO’s carcano, made no mention of other shells with a dented lip

"It is the opinion of the panel that the dent on the mouth of the CE 543 cartridge case was produced when the cartridge case was ejected from the rifle. This condition was duplicated during test-firing of the CE 139 rifle by the panel."

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/hsca/reportvols/vol7/html/HSCA_Vol7_0191a.htm

[Jack Nessan]

Thompson claimed that "the only mark borne by the dented case, linking it to Oswald's rifle, could not have been incurred on November 22". Frazier did not use the extractor or the ejector marks made on CE-143 to match it to the rifle. He used the marks made on it by the firing pin and bolt face of the rifle to make that positive match. 

"It is the opinion of the panel that the dent on the mouth of the CE 543 cartridge case was produced when the cartridge case was ejected from the rifle. This condition was duplicated during test-firing of the CE 139 rifle by the panel."

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/hsca/reportvols/vol7/html/HSCA_Vol7_0191a.htm

Wrong mark. Magazine follower marks are what is being referred too.

In a letter to the Warren Commission of 2 June 1964, J. Edgar Hoover noted that
Commission Exhibit 543 (FBI Number C6), the case with the dent, had "three
sets of marks on the base of this cartridge case which were not found [on the
other casings]." The case, according to Hoover, had also been loaded into and
extracted from a weapon three times. The only marks linking the case to
Oswald's rifle were marks from the magazine follower. As noted above, Case 543
could not have obtained the marks from the magazine follower on 22 November,
since the last round in the clip must have been the unfired one in the chamber.
Furthermore, Commission Exhibit 543 lacks the characteristic indentation on the
side made by the firing chamber of Oswald's rifle.

-----
You are fixated on the wrong indentation. CE 543 lacks the indentation from the chamber of the rifle on the side of the shell casing that is on all the other shells fired in LHO's carcano. That was Thompson's point. Not this dent in the lip you are concerned with. The indented lip on CE 543 has nothing to do with it.

The HSCA never fired LHO's rifle. A substitute was used to protect the original rifle. F100 shows the dents. They are not the same.

JFK Exhibit F-100: Four Shells from a Firing Test Conducted by the HSCA Firearms Panel. Note that these shells are only slightly deformed and have no dent that resembles the dent in CE 543


Obviously this is not true if they photographed the dents and they do not resemble CE 543.

[Tim Nickerson]

Wrong mark. Magazine follower marks are what is being referred too.

In a letter to the Warren Commission of 2 June 1964, J. Edgar Hoover noted that
Commission Exhibit 543 (FBI Number C6), the case with the dent, had "three
sets of marks on the base of this cartridge case which were not found [on the
other casings]." The case, according to Hoover, had also been loaded into and
extracted from a weapon three times. The only marks linking the case to
Oswald's rifle were marks from the magazine follower. As noted above, Case 543
could not have obtained the marks from the magazine follower on 22 November,
since the last round in the clip must have been the unfired one in the chamber.
Furthermore, Commission Exhibit 543 lacks the characteristic indentation on the
side made by the firing chamber of Oswald's rifle.

Magazine follower marks, ejector marks, or extractor marks; it makes no difference. Thompson's claim that "the only mark borne by the dented case, linking it to Oswald's rifle, could not have been incurred on November 22" is false. Frazier used the marks made on CE 543 by the firing pin and bolt face of the rifle to positively match it to the rifle.

You are fixated on the wrong indentation. CE 543 lacks the indentation from the chamber of the rifle on the side of the shell casing that is on all the other shells fired in LHO's carcano. That was Thompson's point. Not this dent in the lip you are concerned with. The indented lip on CE 543 has nothing to do with it.

I really don't know what you are referring to. Post an image of CE-543 with an arrow pointing to the indentation that you are referring to. Thompson was referring to the dent on the mouth of the shell.

The HSCA never fired LHO's rifle. A substitute was used to protect the original rifle. F100 shows the dents. They are not the same.

That is false.

"It is the opinion of the panel that the dent on the mouth of the CE 543 cartridge case was produced when the cartridge case was ejected from the rifle. This condition was duplicated during test-firing of the CE 139 rifle by the panel."

The CE 139 rifle is not a substitution for the CE 139 rifle. It is the rifle. Oswald's rifle.

JFK Exhibit F-100: Four Shells from a Firing Test Conducted by the HSCA Firearms Panel. Note that these shells are only slightly deformed and have no dent that resembles the dent in CE 543


Obviously this is not true if they photographed the dents and they do not resemble CE 543.

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/hsca/reportvols/vol7/html/HSCA_Vol7_0197a.htm

[Tim Nickerson]

JFK Exhibit F-100: Four Shells from a Firing Test Conducted by the HSCA Firearms Panel. Note that these shells are only slightly deformed and have no dent that resembles the dent in CE 543


Obviously this is not true if they photographed the dents and they do not resemble CE 543.

[Jack Nessan]

Magazine follower marks, ejector marks, or extractor marks; it makes no difference. Thompson's claim that "the only mark borne by the dented case, linking it to Oswald's rifle, could not have been incurred on November 22" is false. Frazier used the marks made on CE 543 by the firing pin and bolt face of the rifle to positively match it to the rifle.

I really don't know what you are referring to. Post an image of CE-543 with an arrow pointing to the indentation that you are referring to. Thompson was referring to the dent on the mouth of the shell.

That is false.

"It is the opinion of the panel that the dent on the mouth of the CE 543 cartridge case was produced when the cartridge case was ejected from the rifle. This condition was duplicated during test-firing of the CE 139 rifle by the panel."

The CE 139 rifle is not a substitution for the CE 139 rifle. It is the rifle. Oswald's rifle.

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/hsca/reportvols/vol7/html/HSCA_Vol7_0197a.htm

As part of Josiah’s participation in the Life magazine photo shoot in 1967 Thompson was able to view the rifle and all the shell casings that were fired in or associated with LHO’s rifle during and since the assassination. 

Somehow this message seems to have gotten lost here, but the whole point Josiah made was CE 543 is the only shell casing he observed out of the 30+ shells that had been fired in the rifle since the assassination including CE 544, CE545, and CE 141, the unfired cartridge, that did not have the indentation on the side of the shell that the FBI identified as a “chamber mark” and as having been produced by the chamber of the rifle. The point of his observation is without the “chamber mark” on CE 543, it is proof it was not fired in the rifle. His point is not that CE 543 was not in the chamber of the rifle.

Page 145, in Six Seconds in Dallas, has the picture of the shells and the explanation. The one without the arrow is CE 543. There is an anomaly, most likely a burr from the reamer during manufacturing, in the chamber of the rifle that impresses an indentation on the shell casing when it is fired, or the chamber expanded due to heat. CE 543 lacks that indentation in the side of the shell casing and is the only shell, out of 30+ viewed by Josiah that had been in the rifle or fired by the FBI while testing the rifle, that lacks the indentation. All the others have the indentation to a varying degree.

 Additionally, CE 141, the unfired cartridge, has the indentation in the side of the shell casing, just from being introduced into an expanded chamber due to heat of the other cartridges having been fired. CE 543 by lacking the indentation or "chamber mark" indicates that it was never actually fired in the rifle.

Magazine follower marks will only be on the last shell in the clip. The last shell, in this instance is CE 141 the unfired cartridge, which was discovered still loaded in the chamber, not CE 543. CE 543 was known to be in the chamber of the rifle and dryfired but was not the last shell. on 11/22

Josiah clearly states based on his observation LHO only fired two shots not three, that is the whole point he was trying to make.