Understanding the Importance of the Z186-190 Shot

[Michael T. Griffith]

One of the key contributions that the HSCA made to our understanding of the JFK shooting is the acknowledgment that the first hit on JFK came at or shortly before Z190. Just admitting that a shot was fired at this time was crucial, because the sixth-floor gunman would not have had a view of JFK from Z166-207 due to the intervening oak tree. One item of evidence for the Z190 shot is the strong blur episode from Z190-200. It is the second-strongest blur episode of the seven blur episodes that the HSCA photographic experts found clearly exceeded the threshold of 2 percent of the field of view (“% of field-of-view”) and the threshold for “frame-to-frame departure from smooth panning.” Another item of evidence for the Z190 shot is Willis slide 5.

Dr. William Hartmann, a member of the HSCA's Photographic Evidence Panel, explained some of the evidence for the Z190 shot, and noted the Zapruder film indicates JFK was hit by this shot:

Mr. CORNWELL. And would it be accurate to state that the second largest area of
blur or jiggle, apart from the one which occurred shortly after the head shot,
would be in the earlier portion of the film?

Dr. HARTMANN. That is correct.

Mr. CORNWELL. What frame is that associated with?

Dr. HARTMANN. About frames 190 to 200 there is a strong blur reaction
initiated. So having concluded that this is in fact, that the blur sequence around
313 to 319 is in fact a response to the gunshots, I would think that the logical
inference would be that the blur sequence, the blur episode, running typically
from 190 to 200 is also a response to a possible gunshot. And we know that the
President emerged from behind the sign somewhat later, some frames later,
showing in fact a reaction to such a wound.

Mr. CORNWELL. And what, if any, corroboration is provided by this analysis to
the Warren Commission's conclusion that the President and the Governor may
have been shot in the vicinity of frame 210.

Dr. HARTMANN. Yes, they picked 210. I would say that to pick 210 in the face of
this current evidence, to pick 210 as the time for that first shot, which is the
Warren Commission's conclusion, would not be warranted from this evidence,
because the blur before frame 210, from 190 to 200, is clearly much larger than
any blur after frame 210. In fact, there is really very little evidence for a blur in the
appropriate amount of time after frame 210.

Furthermore, there is some photo evidence that tends to support the thought of a
shot in the time frame shortly before 190. For example, there is the Phillip Willis
photograph which shows Mr. Zapruder in the background and the motorcade
passing in between. Because the motorcade is in between, it is quite possible
quite easy, to determine exactly which Zapruder frame that corresponds to,
because you can tell which part of the motorcade is passing between Zapruder
and Willis. And Willis said that he took that photograph as a reaction. He pressed
the shutter as a reaction to what he perceived as the first shot, at least a shot.

Well, it turns out that, that frame is 202. So that means that Mr. Willis is telling us
that he pressed the shutter as part of his reaction to a shot, and he was reacting
at frame 202, while here we see that Mr. Zapruder is in the middle of his reaction
at frame 202. So that is very nice consistent evidence that something happened,
say, at 190 or shortly before 190. (2 HSCA 15)

Years before the HSCA photographic experts recognized that JFK was hit at around Z190, Don Olson and Ralph Turner identified most of the same indications of a wound reaction soon after this shot that the HSCA experts saw. In a paper titled “Photographic Evidence and the Assassination of President John F. Kennedy,” published in the Journal of Forensic Sciences in October 1971, Olson and Turner concluded that JFK begins to react to a shot in Z194 and that this reaction continues until he disappears behind the freeway sign. Olson was a professor of physics at the University of California, while Turner was a professor of criminal justice at Michigan State University. I quote from their analysis:

First, a general trend in the frames 194 to 206 may be noted. Beginning as early as
frame 194, the President's body seems to undergo a motion forward and to the left.
This motion, which can be visually approximated to be on the order of six or seven inches,
seems to begin in frame 194 and continues through about frame 200. The President
seems to move away from the seat back and tilt to the left, away from the window ledge. . . .

On the interval 194-200 the President's body is seen to narrow somewhat to the view,
indicating that he not only leans to the left front, but also is rotated to the left. The rotation
of the shoulders begins as early as frame 195. His head comes around at 200-202. By
frame 204 the President is facing almost directly forward.

As the President moves and rotates to the left, his right arm is pulled back into the car.
While his elbow has been resting outside the car, it comes up noticeably at frame 195. The
President’s elbow can be seen to cross the chrome strip on the side of the car at frames 198-199.
As President Kennedy disappears from view behind the sign, his right arm seems to be in a
particularly unusual position—the clearly visible gray of his suit coat indicating that his
right arm and elbow have been raised at least to the level of his chin. (pp. 410-411)

[Tom Graves]

[...]

You're full of high-fructose beans.

Does Vladimir Putin pay you, Griffith, or do you do it for free?

[Michael T. Griffith]

You're full of high-fructose beans. Does Vladimir Putin pay you, Griffith, or do you do it for free?

Does Putin pay me? Weird. Just weird. I take it that you're something of a forum troll.

Anyway, moving on from this guy's latest spam reply, I should mention that we now know that some of the WC's experts recognized that JFK begins to show wound-reaction signs from Z199-207. The 4/22/64 WC memorandum reports that when a group of wound ballistics experts, the autopsy doctors, and Commission staffers reviewed the Zapruder film frame by frame, with the aid of enlargements, they noted that JFK shows signs of a wound reaction as early as Z199 and by Z204-205:

The reaction shown in frames 224-225 may have started at an earlier point--possibly as early as frame 199 (where there appears to be some jerkiness in his [JFK's] movement) or, with a higher degree of possibility, at frames 204-205 (where his right elbow appears to be raised to an artificially high position). (WC memo, 4/22/64, p. 1)

It should be noted that this group included Dr. F. W. Light, the deputy chief of the Biophysics Division at Edgewood Arsenal, and Dr. Alfred G. Olivier, the chief of the Wound Ballistics Branch of the Biophysics Division at Edgewood Arsenal. The fact that these experts recognized unusual movements by JFK starting at Z199 is significant. The HSCA PEP noticed the same unusual movements and concluded JFK was hit by Z190. Olson and Turner also spotted these movements and concluded JFK was hit before Z194.

Keep in mind, too, that the sixth-floor shooter's view of JFK was obstructed by the oak tree from Z166-207, and that at least five witnesses reported seeing a bullet strike the pavement near the limo early in the shooting.

[Dan O'meara]

One of the key contributions that the HSCA made to our understanding of the JFK shooting is the acknowledgment that the first hit on JFK came at or shortly before Z190. Just admitting that a shot was fired at this time was crucial, because the sixth-floor gunman would not have had a view of JFK from Z166-207 due to the intervening oak tree. One item of evidence for the Z190 shot is the strong blur episode from Z190-200. It is the second-strongest blur episode of the seven blur episodes that the HSCA photographic experts found clearly exceeded the threshold of 2 percent of the field of view (“% of field-of-view”) and the threshold for “frame-to-frame departure from smooth panning.” Another item of evidence for the Z190 shot is Willis slide 5.

Dr. William Hartmann, a member of the HSCA's Photographic Evidence Panel, explained some of the evidence for the Z190 shot, and noted the Zapruder film indicates JFK was hit by this shot:

Mr. CORNWELL. And would it be accurate to state that the second largest area of
blur or jiggle, apart from the one which occurred shortly after the head shot,
would be in the earlier portion of the film?

Dr. HARTMANN. That is correct.

Mr. CORNWELL. What frame is that associated with?

Dr. HARTMANN. About frames 190 to 200 there is a strong blur reaction
initiated. So having concluded that this is in fact, that the blur sequence around
313 to 319 is in fact a response to the gunshots, I would think that the logical
inference would be that the blur sequence, the blur episode, running typically
from 190 to 200 is also a response to a possible gunshot. And we know that the
President emerged from behind the sign somewhat later, some frames later,
showing in fact a reaction to such a wound.

Mr. CORNWELL. And what, if any, corroboration is provided by this analysis to
the Warren Commission's conclusion that the President and the Governor may
have been shot in the vicinity of frame 210.

Dr. HARTMANN. Yes, they picked 210. I would say that to pick 210 in the face of
this current evidence, to pick 210 as the time for that first shot, which is the
Warren Commission's conclusion, would not be warranted from this evidence,
because the blur before frame 210, from 190 to 200, is clearly much larger than
any blur after frame 210. In fact, there is really very little evidence for a blur in the
appropriate amount of time after frame 210.

Furthermore, there is some photo evidence that tends to support the thought of a
shot in the time frame shortly before 190. For example, there is the Phillip Willis
photograph which shows Mr. Zapruder in the background and the motorcade
passing in between. Because the motorcade is in between, it is quite possible
quite easy, to determine exactly which Zapruder frame that corresponds to,
because you can tell which part of the motorcade is passing between Zapruder
and Willis. And Willis said that he took that photograph as a reaction. He pressed
the shutter as a reaction to what he perceived as the first shot, at least a shot.

Well, it turns out that, that frame is 202. So that means that Mr. Willis is telling us
that he pressed the shutter as part of his reaction to a shot, and he was reacting
at frame 202, while here we see that Mr. Zapruder is in the middle of his reaction
at frame 202. So that is very nice consistent evidence that something happened,
say, at 190 or shortly before 190. (2 HSCA 15)

Years before the HSCA photographic experts recognized that JFK was hit at around Z190, Don Olson and Ralph Turner identified most of the same indications of a wound reaction soon after this shot that the HSCA experts saw. In a paper titled “Photographic Evidence and the Assassination of President John F. Kennedy,” published in the Journal of Forensic Sciences in October 1971, Olson and Turner concluded that JFK begins to react to a shot in Z194 and that this reaction continues until he disappears behind the freeway sign. Olson was a professor of physics at the University of California, while Turner was a professor of criminal justice at Michigan State University. I quote from their analysis:

First, a general trend in the frames 194 to 206 may be noted. Beginning as early as
frame 194, the President's body seems to undergo a motion forward and to the left.
This motion, which can be visually approximated to be on the order of six or seven inches,
seems to begin in frame 194 and continues through about frame 200. The President
seems to move away from the seat back and tilt to the left, away from the window ledge. . . .

On the interval 194-200 the President's body is seen to narrow somewhat to the view,
indicating that he not only leans to the left front, but also is rotated to the left. The rotation
of the shoulders begins as early as frame 195. His head comes around at 200-202. By
frame 204 the President is facing almost directly forward.

As the President moves and rotates to the left, his right arm is pulled back into the car.
While his elbow has been resting outside the car, it comes up noticeably at frame 195. The
President’s elbow can be seen to cross the chrome strip on the side of the car at frames 198-199.
As President Kennedy disappears from view behind the sign, his right arm seems to be in a
particularly unusual position—the clearly visible gray of his suit coat indicating that his
right arm and elbow have been raised at least to the level of his chin. (pp. 410-411)

"At approximately Zapruder frame 200, Kennedy's movements suddenly freeze; his right hand abruptly stops in the midst of a waving motion and his head moves rapidly from right to his left in the direction of his wife. Based on these movements, it appears that by the time the President goes behind the sign at frame 207 he is evidencing some kind of reaction to a severe external stimulus...
... it was determined that Kennedy was struck by this bullet at a time corresponding approximately to Zapruder frame 190. (6 HSCA 17, 43)"


The first shot passes through both JFK and JBC between z222 and z223.
The HSCA's notion that JFK moves his head "rapidly from right to his left in the direction of his wife" is demonstrably wrong.
This is not up for dispute.
Look at JFK's hairline in z207 below, the last frame we see him before he fully passes behind the Stemmons sign.
The stills below are photographic proof that JFK was still looking to his right. At no point was there any sudden head movement towards Jackie.





How could the HSCA experts be so wrong?

The other argument supporting the HSCA's incorrect placement of the shot around z190 is Willis #5



There are two points to be made about this photo.
The first is that, ironically enough, Willis #5 also refutes the HSCA's assertion that JFK was looking towards Jackie. In Willis #5 JFK is looking to his right, just as he is in z207:



Secondly, Willis' insistence that he took the pic as a reaction to the sound of a shot is to be taken with a pinch of salt. Willis was a salesman who took some mediocre pictures on the day of the assassination. He quickly realized the value of these pictures so created Phil Willis Enterprises as a way of making money from the death of JFK. He turned the pics into slides, copyrighted them and gave them really grandiose titles as part of his strategy to maximize their value:



"Horrified Citizenry Can't Conceive Tragedy"??
It's a picture of a few people running towards where the limo sped off.



Here we have a picture supposedly capturing JFK's last wave to the crowds before his assassination. One small problem is that this pic is not his last wave, another one is that JFK isn't even waving in this pic, he's running his hand through his hair.
Many of the slides are labelled in an equally dramatic way - "The Search For The Assassin Already Begun", "Utter Disbelief, Terror and Shock" etc.



This was, by far, the most lucrative picture Willis took.
The fact he had a financial incentive to promote this picture as the very moment JFK was shot must be taken into account.
There is nothing in Willis#5 that indicates a shot has been taken at this point.
The HSCA's notion that JFK had some kind of violent reaction at this point had been completely undermined.
All that is left is the word of a salesman profiteering off the death of JFK.

The first shot occured just over a second after Willis#5 was taken.

[Tom Graves]

[...]

You seem to have a pathological need to spread nation-rending conspiracy theories regarding the JFK assassination.

Is that because you've always hated the U.S., because Putin pays you to do it, or because you've always been paranoiac?

[Michael T. Griffith]

"At approximately Zapruder frame 200, Kennedy's movements suddenly freeze; his right hand abruptly stops in the midst of a waving motion and his head moves rapidly from right to his left in the direction of his wife. Based on these movements, it appears that by the time the President goes behind the sign at frame 207 he is evidencing some kind of reaction to a severe external stimulus...
... it was determined that Kennedy was struck by this bullet at a time corresponding approximately to Zapruder frame 190. (6 HSCA 17, 43)"


The first shot passes through both JFK and JBC between z222 and z223.
The HSCA's notion that JFK moves his head "rapidly from right to his left in the direction of his wife" is demonstrably wrong.
This is not up for dispute.
Look at JFK's hairline in z207 below, the last frame we see him before he fully passes behind the Stemmons sign.
The stills below are photographic proof that JFK was still looking to his right. At no point was there any sudden head movement towards Jackie.

How could the HSCA experts be so wrong?

The other argument supporting the HSCA's incorrect placement of the shot around z190 is Willis #5

There are two points to be made about this photo.
The first is that, ironically enough, Willis #5 also refutes the HSCA's assertion that JFK was looking towards Jackie. In Willis #5 JFK is looking to his right, just as he is in z207:

Secondly, Willis' insistence that he took the pic as a reaction to the sound of a shot is to be taken with a pinch of salt. Willis was a salesman who took some mediocre pictures on the day of the assassination. He quickly realized the value of these pictures so created Phil Willis Enterprises as a way of making money from the death of JFK. He turned the pics into slides, copyrighted them and gave them really grandiose titles as part of his strategy to maximize their value:

Here we have a picture supposedly capturing JFK's last wave to the crowds before his assassination. One small problem is that this pic is not his last wave, another one is that JFK isn't even waving in this pic, he's running his hand through his hair.
Many of the slides are labelled in an equally dramatic way - "The Search For The Assassin Already Begun", "Utter Disbelief, Terror and Shock" etc.

This was, by far, the most lucrative picture Willis took.
The fact he had a financial incentive to promote this picture as the very moment JFK was shot must be taken into account.
There is nothing in Willis#5 that indicates a shot has been taken at this point.
The HSCA's notion that JFK had some kind of violent reaction at this point had been completely undermined.
All that is left is the word of a salesman profiteering off the death of JFK.

The first shot occured just over a second after Willis#5 was taken.

Your dismissal of contrary evidence is remarkable. You simply ignored most of the facts and repeated the standard SBT scenario. Some points in reply:

-- The HSCA photographic experts were not "demonstrably wrong" in pointing out that at around Z200 JFK starts to turn his head "rapidly from right to his left in the direction of his wife." What are you talking about? What Zapruder film are you looking at? In Z190 he is looking to his right and waving at the crowd. This clearly changes by Z202. When he reemerges into view in Z225, he is facing straight ahead and reaching for his throat. I'm baffled that you would deny the right-to-left movement of JFK's head from Z199-207.

-- Jackie's reaction is key and indisputable. Starting at around Z202, she begins to rapidly whip her head from left to right and starts staring at JFK. She is still looking intently at him in Z224. Why do you suppose Jackie snaps her head to the right before Z207? What drew her attention so suddenly to JFK? The answer is obvious to anyone no blinded by the SBT.

-- The fact that JFK is clearly reacting to a shot in Z225 means he could not have been hit later than Z221, as even Dr. Piziali conceded during the ABA mock Oswald trial. Dr. McCarthy confirmed this during the trial. This fact alone refutes your Z222-223 SBT, not to mention Connally's lack of reaction before Z234. (A tensing stiffness and look of concern are hardly a wound reaction. Connally had just heard a rifle shot and was trying to see if JFK was okay, so naturally he stiffened a bit from tension.)

-- The second-strongest blur episode in the Zapruder film occurs at Z190-200.

-- Even the WC's experts recognized that JFK shows reactions signs as early as Z199 and Z204-205, as did Olson and Turner.

-- Of course you reject Willis's matter-of-fact statement that he snapped slide 5 in response to hearing a shot, never mind that this correlates perfectly with the blur episode.

-- Connally himself, the man who actually experienced the wounding, insisted he was not hit before Z229. He did so after spending hours examining the shooting sequence under high magnification.