Oswald took 10.2 seconds to fire all three shots.

[Andrew Mason]

If your graph is accepted by the research community as being complete and correct, then I don’t know how to explain it.

The linked paper contains quotes of all the statements about the shot spacing with sources.  In addition, there were many who said they heard a shot and then two more shots without explicitly providing a relative spacing.

If the witnesses were unreliable or just guessing one would expect roughly equal distribution of the three shot spacing possibilities.

The witnesses were consistent on the number of shots - as seen in this distribution based on the study conducted for the HSCA:

It is basically opposite of the non-testimony forensic evidence I’ve seen that shows that there was an early shot and equal spacing.

And what forensic evidence would that be?

Dave Wiegman appeared to have the shot spacing engrained in his memory.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WuZnGGsRlPViCK5mnxjM3d6Acsvag8H7/view?usp=sharing

Interesting that his equally spaced shots are about 6.8 seconds from beginning to end.

On this clip there were 3 that recalled equal spacing, Harold Norman, the man after him, and the last man.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/139KZKSTu7bW9GRo18ed8kq3X9rWd3NUT/view?usp=sharing

You have to be careful to review all of a witness’s statements.  Norman also said that JFK “slumped or something” in response to the first shot. 3H191.

I’m curious as to why you added McNeil to your list of witness with reliable shot spacing testimony. Didn’t we just determine he was not even in the Plaza during the shooting and his estimate on the first shot timing was nearly 10 seconds in error?

MacNeil heard the shots and recalled the pattern.  There is no suggestion that the shots could not be heard on Main St. prior to Houston. In fact, L.C. Smith (19H516) said he was standing at the front door of the Sheriff’s office on Main Street when he heard the first shot. He said he ran to the corner and when he got there he heard two more shots.

[Tom Graves]

A US Marine trained shooter doesn't miss the entire car at a shorter distance because he was "leaning forward."   That's a very wide miss at a shorter distance.  If the bullet hits the road, it fragments in the presence of many law enforcement personnel in close proximity or bystanders on Elm St.   The fragments do not take flight above their heads and strike Tague standing in the distance.  I can't prove it and don't rely on junk science to support it, but the most obvious explanation is that Oswald tunnel visionrd the shot through the scope into the treeline and missed for that reason.

If you'd watched the PBS NOVA special, "Cold Case JFK," you'd realize that the Haag father & son team (I can't remember their first names at the moment) proved that a bullet like Oswald's when fired from a high-powered rifle like Oswald's disintegrates into "nothingness" when it strikes asphalt.

[Royell Storing]

  You guys struggling to force 3 shots outta that sniper's nest is a WC Knockoff. It didn't work then or now. What you really got are at least 2 shooters and shots being fired almost simultaneously.  If your ridiculous description of a shooter standing up and leaning out of a 1/2 open window to fire a shot Straight Down into the pavement were true, it would only be true in what used to be known as a "Screwball Comedy". Remember SA Hickey's "Original Report". The 1st report was fired at "ground level", the 2nd & 3rd reports did Not sound like the 1st report. Minimum 2 Shooters, different weapons/different ammo.   

[Brian Roselle]

A US Marine trained shooter doesn't miss the entire car at a shorter distance because he was "leaning forward."   That's a very wide miss at a shorter distance.  If the bullet hits the road, it fragments in the presence of many law enforcement personnel in close proximity or bystanders on Elm St.   The fragments do not take flight above their heads and strike Tague standing in the distance.  I can't prove it and don't rely on junk science to support it, but the most obvious explanation is that Oswald tunnel visionrd the shot through the scope into the treeline and missed for that reason.

Richard, I wish this case was straight forward but I agree with Tom, and part of an earlier discussion here was about how a first shot miss could happen so close to the TSBD vs at z313. The change in angular velocity of the target was proposed as one of the key variables. Estimates based on distances and limo speed during the assassination put the angular velocity of the center of the back of the Presidents head, when near the sniper’s nest, at ~5.4 deg/sec vs ~0.6 deg/sec when around z313. JFK was nearly stationary at z313 from the sniper nest perspective, but was moving across quite quick up close. In fact, I believe that the angular velocity of a clay pigeon flying at station 1 in Skeet competition is about 5 deg/sec and that is one of the reasons they use shotguns in Skeet instead of rifles with jacketed bullets.

As far as the bullet hitting the road it could have almost gone under the limo or been close enough to the side of the limo in shadow to not be easily seen if you were focusing directly at the President and Jackie at the time or if the strike was off a direct line of sight between you and JFK. In the Haag’s testing, a bullet hitting pavement in real time self-destroys so fast it is very hard to see the impact with a small plume coming off the road, all that was left was a road divot mark.
This scenario of course can not be proven given no remnant of the bullet was recovered. However, Fay Chism had an interesting discussion with Ken Rheberg.

A researcher Ken Rheberg interviewed Faye Chism a number of years ago and posted an article about it in Lancer. This is what Ken said about Faye.

“I had a chance to speak with Mrs. Chism last week. Here is the substance of our conversation.
Mrs. Chism goes by her middle name "Faye." I believe her to be a godly woman, devoted to her family, and someone who possesses a good sense of humor even about that darkest of days over forty years ago. I was saddened, and surprised, to hear that her husband had died twenty years ago from cancer. I thought he was still alive. I don't recall hearing or seeing anything to the contrary, but then maybe I just missed it.
She said the first shot that was fired hit the street to the right of the car, about halfway between the front and back. She saw the sparks as it ricocheted off the street. The Chisms were in a good position to see this since they were only a few feet away. This story corresponds with the stories of others who saw bullets hit the street. She heard two more shots but can't place where they came from or where they hit. Following the shots, and during their run down Elm Street toward the triple underpass, they were stopped by a Sheriff. After telling him what they had seen, they were walked back to the Sheriff's Department where they were "held hostage" (tongue in cheek with a little laugh) for six hours. Once they were released, they walked back to their car which was parked up on the Stemmons Freeway.
When they first arrived in Dealey Plaza to see the President, after parking their car, they walked straight to the North Elm Street sidewalk where they were filmed and photographed at the time of the assassination.
According to Mrs. Chism, they were never behind the wall at the top of the grassy knoll at any time.”

[Andrew Mason]

If you'd watched the PBS NOVA special, "Cold Case JFK," you'd realize that the Haag father & son team (I can't remember their first names at the moment) proved that a bullet like Oswald's when fired from a high-powered rifle like Oswald's disintegrates into "nothingness" when it strikes asphalt.

I didn’t see anything in the Cold Case JFK documentary about bullets hitting asphalt.  But there is a nice video on YouTube showing the damage that a .306 rifle bullet does to asphalt and it looked like this:


See:

No damage of any kind was found on any asphalt in DEALEY Plaza.

[Brian Roselle]

The linked paper contains quotes of all the statements about the shot spacing with sources.  In addition, there were many who said they heard a shot and then two more shots without explicitly providing a relative spacing.

If the witnesses were unreliable or just guessing one would expect roughly equal distribution of the three shot spacing possibilities.

The witnesses were consistent on the number of shots - as seen in this distribution based on the study conducted for the HSCA:



And what forensic evidence would that be?Interesting that his equally spaced shots are about 6.8 seconds from beginning to end.
You have to be careful to review all of a witness’s statements.  Norman also said that JFK “slumped or something” in response to the first shot. 3H191. MacNeil heard the shots and recalled the pattern.  There is no suggestion that the shots could not be heard on Main St. prior to Houston. In fact, L.C. Smith (19H516) said he was standing at the front door of the Sheriff’s office on Main Street when he heard the first shot. He said he ran to the corner and when he got there he heard two more shots.

Andrew I’ll bunch these replies to all your comments (like shots).

-Thanks for the graph, its a good layout. I think that data is similar to what I have seen on pie charts created by Josiah Thompson, and separately by BBN data for the HSCA.

-The primary forensic evidence here is the Zapruder film and the Dorman film. If these are not considered forensic evidence then never mind. Then forensic techniques are applied to the evidence. One is a forensic technique based the science of human reactions. This is supported by what is seen when synchronizing the continuous real time evidence of the Dorman film with the Zapruder film. If “anchored testimony”, which is separate from generic testimony, is evidence then that says the exact same thing as the first two.

- I suspect the equal spacing testimonies will not all agree on what they recall is the exact duration, to within hundreds of milliseconds of the spacing, which is what some researches demand. I think most of them seem to have a little shorter estimate than the estimated 5 or 5.2 seconds that I have, but maybe that effect is to be expected. Likewise unequal spacing commenters likely didn't all agree on the spacing to within hundreds of millisecond accuracy either. As such me commenting on your last three comments would have to get into interpretation of the generic witness statements, and what some researches think vs what other researchers think, about what the people making their statements really meant. I will let other testimony gurus argue about that.

My paragraphs all have equal spacing. Well, I admit that does not guarantee that I am right.

[Brian Roselle]

I didn’t see anything in the Cold Case JFK documentary about bullets hitting asphalt.  But there is a nice video on YouTube showing the damage that a .306 rifle bullet does to asphalt and it looked like this:


See:

No damage of any kind was found on any asphalt in DEALEY Plaza.

A couple of comments:

“No damage of any kind was found on any asphalt in DEALEY Plaza”

I believe this is because no one anticipated that the first shot occurred as early as it did, and therefore no one proposed or looked for any evidence of it. Hell, the Warren Commission members even walked right over a road divot consistent with what would be a bullet divot.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hEtXLIwjVIU9plOW2X7E5cWuHVm-vb5w/view?usp=sharing

As far a video goes, a much better video is the one Lucian Haag did. He used the same rifle, the same ammunition, and approximately the same angle and distance of shooting into the pavement from the snipers nest. That is where I saw the slow motion (I think 20,000 frames per second) video which shows, at very slow speed, a small plume shoot up from the pavement, but in real time its almost a “bang” with mostly seeing only a divot left behind.

Try  this link: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/the-shot-that-missed/