When Was JBC Hit?

[Steve M. Galbraith]

I told you how I reached my conclusion. Can you tell me how you reached yours?
The phenomenon of camera jiggle in reaction to gun shots is well established. Zapruder's camera jiggle is consistent for the second and third shots and we can determine that because we know when those shots were fired. Jiggle analysis allows us to be accurate to with in one frame. It is strong evidence for the first shot fired at Z147-148 although it's not as conclusive as for the later shots. We don't have visual evidence of that shot hitting anyone or anything.

CE888 gives us the earliest view from the sniper's nest during the recreation of the shooting. It shows the view from the sniper's nest at Z161 and JFK is just starting to pass under that tree. It could be that as Oswald was tracking JFK through his scope, that tree suddenly came into view in the mid 140s and that could have caused him to rush that shot resulting in a bad miss. Just speculation, of course, but it seems to be a reasonable possibility.

Question: Zapruder said he heard only two shots. Not three. Why didn't (or wouldn't) he remember hearing the first shot that caused him to "jiggle" the camera?

Wouldn't he have remembered a shot or sound that startled or shook him enough to jiggle the camera for that third (in your scenario, the first) shot? It's loud enough to cause him to "jiggle" but not loud enough for him to remember?

[Michael T. Griffith]

We've known when Connally was hit for over 60 years now. He was hit at Z234. We know this from Connally himself. After viewing the Zapruder film in slow motion several times, he told the WC he wasn't hit before Z230. In 1966, LIFE magazine allowed him to study a high-quality print of the Zapruder film under high magnification. After doing so for some time, Connally reached two key conclusions:

1. He was certain he was not hit before Z229.

2. He identified Z234 as the moment of impact.

Connally had valid reasons for selecting Z234 as the moment of impact. Starting in Z238 his right shoulder rapidly collapses, his cheeks puff, and a pained expression appears on his face. The right-shoulder collapse matches Connally's earliest descriptions of the bullet's impact: he said the impact felt like someone hit him powerfully in the back with their first.

A Z234 hit makes perfect sense with what we see in the Zapruder film. It makes total sense that a bullet that hit Connally in the back would only take four Zapruder frames--4/18ths of a second or 218.4 milliseconds--to drive his right shoulder downward. 218.4 milliseconds is in the range of the speed of an eye blink. Eye-blink speed ranges between 100 and 400 milliseconds.

Similarly, the forced expulsion of air from Connally's lungs would have been quite rapid and forceful, quickly causing his cheeks to puff, just as we see in the Zapruder film virtually simultaneously with his right-shoulder drop. The cheeks start to puff just a frame or two after the right shoulder starts to drop.

Also, the shattering of 4 inches of rib bone alone was extremely painful and would have quickly caused a pained expression to appear on Connally's face. Forensic science tells us that when people experience a sharp pain, it only takes 150-300 milliseconds to react with a pained facial expression.

Jim Moore, one of the most honest WC defenders around, concludes that Connally was hit at Z236 and he basis this partly on the rapid collapse of Connally's right shoulder starting in Z238 (Conspiracy of One, pp. 198-199, see also p. 159, where he says that Connally's right shoulder "drops dramatically").

Obviously, these reactions make no sense in a Z224-hit scenario. It most would not have taken Connally's right shoulder 14 frames to begin to be driven downward, nor would it have taken 14 frames for Connally to react with a pained facial expression and for his cheeks to puff.

It is worth noting that Dr. Robert Shaw, Connally's chest surgeon, studied the Zapruder film and concluded the bullet struck the Governor at Z236, "give or take 1 or 2 frames, and that Dr. Charles Gregory, Connally's wrist surgeon, opined that the hit occurred between Z234 and Z238.

But, of course, WC defenders here cannot accept the fact that Connally was not hit before Z229 because it destroys any version of their untenable Z220-224 SBT.

[John Corbett]

We've known when Connally was hit for over 60 years now. He was hit at Z234. We know this from Connally himself. After viewing the Zapruder film in slow motion several times, he told the WC he wasn't hit before Z230. In 1966, LIFE magazine allowed him to study a high-quality print of the Zapruder film under high magnification. After doing so for some time, Connally reached two key conclusions:

1. He was certain he was not hit before Z229.

2. He identified Z234 as the moment of impact.

Connally had valid reasons for selecting Z234 as the moment of impact. Starting in Z238 his right shoulder rapidly collapses, his cheeks puff, and a pained expression appears on his face. The right-shoulder collapse matches Connally's earliest descriptions of the bullet's impact: he said the impact felt like someone hit him powerfully in the back with their first.

A Z234 hit makes perfect sense with what we see in the Zapruder film. It makes total sense that a bullet that hit Connally in the back would only take four Zapruder frames--4/18ths of a second or 218.4 milliseconds--to drive his right shoulder downward. 218.4 milliseconds is in the range of the speed of an eye blink. Eye-blink speed ranges between 100 and 400 milliseconds.

Similarly, the forced expulsion of air from Connally's lungs would have been quite rapid and forceful, quickly causing his cheeks to puff, just as we see in the Zapruder film virtually simultaneously with his right-shoulder drop. The cheeks start to puff just a frame or two after the right shoulder starts to drop.

Also, the shattering of 4 inches of rib bone alone was extremely painful and would have quickly caused a pained expression to appear on Connally's face. Forensic science tells us that when people experience a sharp pain, it only takes 150-300 milliseconds to react with a pained facial expression.

Jim Moore, one of the most honest WC defenders around, concludes that Connally was hit at Z236 and he basis this partly on the rapid collapse of Connally's right shoulder starting in Z238 (Conspiracy of One, pp. 198-199, see also p. 159, where he says that Connally's right shoulder "drops dramatically").

Obviously, these reactions make no sense in a Z224-hit scenario. It most would not have taken Connally's right shoulder 14 frames to begin to be driven downward, nor would it have taken 14 frames for Connally to react with a pained facial expression and for his cheeks to puff.

It is worth noting that Dr. Robert Shaw, Connally's chest surgeon, studied the Zapruder film and concluded the bullet struck the Governor at Z236, "give or take 1 or 2 frames, and that Dr. Charles Gregory, Connally's wrist surgeon, opined that the hit occurred between Z234 and Z238.

But, of course, WC defenders here cannot accept the fact that Connally was not hit before Z229 because it destroys any version of their untenable Z220-224 SBT.

JBC was wrong. He attempted to place the time of the first shot by looking at when he made the reaction he REMEMBERED which was doubling over and dipping to his right. That did happen in the Z230s.There is no reason for him to look for the involuntary reflexive response he made to being struck in the wrist when he suddenly flipped his right arm upward. He had no memory of that action. He didn't even know he had been shot in the wrist until he came out of surgery.

I have pointed out this arm flip to you on numerous occasions and each time you simply choose to ignore it, apparently because you have no explanation for it that fits your narrative that JBC wasn't hit until Z234.

[Michael T. Griffith]

We've known when Connally was hit for over 60 years now. He was hit at Z234. We know this from Connally himself. After viewing the Zapruder film in slow motion several times, he told the WC he wasn't hit before Z230. In 1966, LIFE magazine allowed him to study a high-quality print of the Zapruder film under high magnification. After doing so for some time, Connally reached two key conclusions:

1. He was certain he was not hit before Z229.

2. He identified Z234 as the moment of impact.

Connally had valid reasons for selecting Z234 as the moment of impact. Starting in Z238 his right shoulder rapidly collapses, his cheeks puff, and a pained expression appears on his face. The right-shoulder collapse matches Connally's earliest descriptions of the bullet's impact: he said the impact felt like someone hit him powerfully in the back with their first.

A Z234 hit makes perfect sense with what we see in the Zapruder film. It makes total sense that a bullet that hit Connally in the back would only take four Zapruder frames--4/18ths of a second or 218.4 milliseconds--to drive his right shoulder downward. 218.4 milliseconds is in the range of the speed of an eye blink. Eye-blink speed ranges between 100 and 400 milliseconds.

Similarly, the forced expulsion of air from Connally's lungs would have been quite rapid and forceful, quickly causing his cheeks to puff, just as we see in the Zapruder film virtually simultaneously with his right-shoulder drop. The cheeks start to puff just a frame or two after the right shoulder starts to drop.

Also, the shattering of 4 inches of rib bone alone was extremely painful and would have quickly caused a pained expression to appear on Connally's face. Forensic science tells us that when people experience a sharp pain, it only takes 150-300 milliseconds to react with a pained facial expression.

Jim Moore, one of the most honest WC defenders around, concludes that Connally was hit at Z236 and he basis this partly on the rapid collapse of Connally's right shoulder starting in Z238 (Conspiracy of One, pp. 198-199, see also p. 159, where he says that Connally's right shoulder "drops dramatically").

Obviously, these reactions make no sense in a Z224-hit scenario. It most would not have taken Connally's right shoulder 14 frames to begin to be driven downward, nor would it have taken 14 frames for Connally to react with a pained facial expression and for his cheeks to puff.

It is worth noting that Dr. Robert Shaw, Connally's chest surgeon, studied the Zapruder film and concluded the bullet struck the Governor at Z236, "give or take 1 or 2 frames, and that Dr. Charles Gregory, Connally's wrist surgeon, opined that the hit occurred between Z234 and Z238.

But, of course, WC defenders here cannot accept the fact that Connally was not hit before Z229 because it destroys any version of their untenable Z220-224 SBT.

To follow up on this, I should add that when Connally examined the Zapruder film for LIFE magazine in 1966, he did so frame by frame--not in slow motion, but frame by frame--and, again, he did so while viewing a high-quality print of the film and under high magnification.

In the 1990s, a few lone-gunman theorists, led by Robert Piziali and Gerald Posner, sowed confusion with their claim that Connally's lapel magically flips up and down in Z224, i.e., in the space of 55 milliseconds. Apparently they never bothered to ask themselves whether a lapel can flip up and down in 55 milliseconds. Anyway, since then, the lapel flip has been debunked and is probably an optical illusion.

https://22november1963.org.uk/jfk-assassination-faqs/governor-john-connally-lapel-flap

JFK and Connally could not have reacted to a hit at Z224 until at least 4 frames later, a fact that Dr. John Lattimer acknowledged before he later jumped on the Z224-lapel-flip bandwagon. Lattimer originally put the SBT hit at Z221 because he acknowledged that JFK could not have reacted with reflexive movement until 4 frames after being hit, but this inconvenient fact flew out the window when he embraced the Z224-lapel-flip theory.

Piziali admitted under cross examination in the 1992 ABA mock Oswald trial that there would have been a delay of 4 frames, or about 200 milliseconds, between the bullet's impact and Kennedy's reaction to it with his right hand, because that is the fastest a human can move his hand or arm in a reflex reaction to a bullet wound.

The amount of straining and grasping to uphold the SBT shows up in the argument that Connally's stiffening and frowning in Z224-230 was in response to being wounded. If a bullet had torn through Connally's chest at Z224, smashing 4 inches of rib bone in the process, he would have done a lot more than just stiffen and frown. He suddenly stiffened and frowned because, as he himself noted, he had just heard a gunshot and was naturally tense and concerned about it. When you hear a loud bang that startles you, you will tense up and look concerned. Connally himself did not see his Z224-230 stiffening as a wound reaction, because it obviously wasn't. He insisted he was not hit before Z229.

[John Corbett]

MTG continues to ignore the inconvenient truth of JBC's arm flip beginning at Z226. That last for 9 frames. Roughly a half a second. Are we supposed to believe that is an illusion too. What does he suppose caused that arm flip. We'll have to keep guessing what MTG things about that because he won't address it.

[Andrew Mason]

MTG continues to ignore the inconvenient truth of JBC's arm flip beginning at Z226. That last for 9 frames. Roughly a half a second. Are we supposed to believe that is an illusion too. What does he suppose caused that arm flip. We'll have to keep guessing what MTG things about that because he won't address it.

Not all of us have your psychic power to know what JBC's brain is doing in moving his arm there.  Even JBC himself didn't know. He thought it was because he was turning before he was hit by the bullet he felt. But maybe he didn't have your gift.

[Dan O'meara]

I told you how I reached my conclusion. Can you tell me how you reached yours?

I already did - a forensic analysis of the Z-film

The phenomenon of camera jiggle in reaction to gun shots is well established. Zapruder's camera jiggle is consistent for the second and third shots and we can determine that because we know when those shots were fired. Jiggle analysis allows us to be accurate to with in one frame. It is strong evidence for the first shot fired at Z147-148 although it's not as conclusive as for the later shots. We don't have visual evidence of that shot hitting anyone or anything.

CE888 gives us the earliest view from the sniper's nest during the recreation of the shooting. It shows the view from the sniper's nest at Z161 and JFK is just starting to pass under that tree. It could be that as Oswald was tracking JFK through his scope, that tree suddenly came into view in the mid 140s and that could have caused him to rush that shot resulting in a bad miss. Just speculation, of course, but it seems to be a reasonable possibility.

1] Oswald wasn't tracking anything as he wasn't in the SN at the time of the shooting
2] The shooter was fully aware of the tree, it didn't 'suddenly come into view' 
3] The shooter had visualised the open space just beyond the tree as the 'kill zone'.  The limo would be at it's straightest from his POV, with minimal lateral movement.
4] Read through "The First Shot" thread to familiarise yourself with this issue rather than just swallow the WC Report down hook, line and sinker.
5] If the sound of the shots was so distant it would not have created any Jiggle for anyone to Analyse. That's the importance of Sitzman's observation. Jiggle Analysis is meaningless for the Z-film.