Liz Cheney Defeated!

[Richard Smith]

I can't wait for Liz to make the announcement that she is running for President.  Think of the humiliation that awaits her.  As though her landslide defeat in her home state wasn't the ultimate a bad sign.  Those Liz for President will be collector's items as only one or two will be sold.

[Joe Elliott]

Well, Liz Cheney is not the only one to lose a run for Congress in August. So did Sarah Palin.

Republicans who (rightly) turn against Trump cannot win Republican primaries very often. But it appears that candidates who strongly support Trump and his stolen election claims have just as much trouble winning an election involving all the voters.

I look forward to November with confidence and high hopes for the future of American democracy.

[Joe Elliott]

Republican's support for the notion that the election of 2020 was stolen is based on the notion that supporting that lie will keep them in office. How much longer will their support last once they perceive that this is a pretty sure ticket to being kicked out of Congress? Not very long.

The Capitol was besieged for several hours on January 6. But democracy has been besieged for almost two years. But I think relieve is just a couple of months away. Hold on, the cavalry is coming.

[Joe Elliott]

How many politicians, running for office in November, are going to step up, unasked, and state that the 2020 Election was stolen from Trump?

My guess is not too many. But if anyone hears of someone doing so, between now and November, I would like to hear about it on this thread. I would be good to learn who the dumbest of the MAGA crowd are still service in Congress.

So far, I haven't heard of many politicians rushing in to support Palin's claim that the election was stolen from her. But there may be some dumb ones. We will see.

[Richard Smith]

Well, Liz Cheney is not the only one to lose a run for Congress in August. So did Sarah Palin.

Republicans who (rightly) turn against Trump cannot win Republican primaries very often. But it appears that candidates who strongly support Trump and his stolen election claims have just as much trouble winning an election involving all the voters.

I look forward to November with confidence and high hopes for the future of American democracy.

Yes, the election laws in Alaska are like something from Soviet Russia.  They started with 48 candidates including Santa Claus in something called "ranked choice" ballots.  There were four candidates on the final ballot.  Three were republicans who split the vote leaving the Dem the winner.  LOL.  Here is the  ralkicker.   This election was only for this year which means only a few months.  They will have ANOTHER election in two months.  Palin will win that election.

[Richard Smith]

Liz thought the Biden rant was great last night.  Her only suggestion:  more Trump hate.

[Joe Elliott]

Yes, the election laws in Alaska are like something from Soviet Russia.  They started with 48 candidates including Santa Claus in something called "ranked choice" ballots.  There were four candidates on the final ballot.  Three were republicans who split the vote leaving the Dem the winner.  LOL.  Here is the  ralkicker.   This election was only for this year which means only a few months.  They will have ANOTHER election in two months.  Palin will win that election.

Question: Can you provide any support for claim that "ranked choice" ballots are used in Russia? Or is this just an empty claim?

Ranked Choice ballots are a system which reduces the odds of an "extreme" candidate winning an election against the wishes of the majority. If we happen to have an election with the following three candidates:

Moderate-A who gets 31 % of the votes
Moderate-B who gets 30 % of the votes
Extreme-C who gets 39 % of the votes

in a regular election, Extreme-C would win the election, even though 61 % are against him. But in a ranked choice election, no one got over 50 % of the votes, so Moderate-B would be eliminated. Assuming the second choice of his voters voted for Moderate-A as their second choice, Moderate-A would win.

Ranked choice ballots gives the majority a chance to freeze out a candidate who is too extreme.

By the way, my definition of an 'Extreme Candidate' is one who over 50 % of the votes find totally unacceptable. Trump and Palin meet this definition.

Question: Can you provide a hypothetical example of how Ranked Choice Ballot system would give an advantage to an Extreme candidate against the wishes of the majority?

And Ranked-Choice-Ballots is the system that Alaska voters choose for themselves. This has to be the system used until they change their minds.

In any case, Ranked-Choice-Ballots did not cost Pain the election. In the initial votes:

Peltola (D) got 37 % of the votes
Palin (R) got 30 % of the votes
Begich (R) got 26 % of the votes

In a more traditional, Non Ranked-Choice Ballots, Peltola would have won outright, even through 56 % of the votes were for a Republican candidate. Ranked-Choice-Ballots gave Palin a second chance for victory. But Begich voters found Palin to be unacceptable. Too extreme. Too much support for the 'Stolen Election' lie. Too much of a threat to democracy. So these Republican voters mostly either made their second choice Peltola, or didn't make any second choice at all.

The Republican's have a clear path to victory in the November election for the same House seat. It only requires Palin to withdraw from the election. Because Palin voters will vote for Begich, if Palin is not running, but Begich voters, for this most part, won't vote for Palin if Begich is not running. It is the Republicans best chance.

Will Palin do so? Make a sacrifice for her party? No. She is too delusional. Blames Ranked-Choice Balloting, which actually gave her the best chance of winning. What is the real problem? Too many Alaska voters find her unacceptable. 30 % think she is great and she is their first choice. But less than 50 % find her to be acceptable.

I do not foresee Palin doing the smart and unselfish thing. I do not foresee any reason why the November results will be different from the August results for this seat. We will have more posts on this in November.

By the way, this is not just a bad omen for Palin. It is a bad omen for all MAGA candidates who have supported the Stolen Election lie. These guys are in trouble. And they know it. Losing elections in deep red states like Alaska and Kansas is as bad an omen as one can get. Well, they have made their bed. It's too late to undo this now.

The smartest choice for Republican politicians, if one is not guided by principle, was to not support impeaching Trump, not to support investigations into Trump, but to also not support the Big Lie that
the election was stolen from Trump in 2020. Republicans who were smart enough to choose that road, will be the leaders of the Republican Party throughout the 2020's.