Colors of Blue and Gold

[Martin Weidmann]

Russia will give up the northern Donbas before they retreat from Crimea.

I don't think some here understand the strategic importance of Crimea to Russia's national security. If Russia loses their naval bases in Crimea they could lose access to the Black Sea. Which would severely hurt them militarily and economically.

Spot on. Crimea has always been a hot spot. Russia has already lost a war over Crimea once (1853 - 1856) which took them decades to recover from and that was before modern war ships and Russia's need for a harbor that not only gives them access to the Black Sea but the Mediterramean Sea and beyond as well.

It is very possible that Russia will negotiate a peace if they lose control of Crimea. In such an event they might even be willing to give up all other occupied land. Which, of course, is exactly the reason why Ukraine should focus on cutting off Russia's supply lines to the Crimea.

[Richard Smith]

Fewer and fewer people are buying into the narrative that Ukraine can win this war.

Russia may ultimately be unable to takeover all of Ukraine but Ukraine may ultimately be unable to kick the Russians out.

So a stalemate remains the most plausible outcome for the near future.

I'm not sure Russia ever intended to take over all of Ukraine.  There are disputed regions in Ukraine in which there is a high percentage of ethnic Russians who prefer Russian rule.  The fighting has been limited mostly to those areas.  The US media and government have exaggerated Russia's objectives to even suggest that they pose a danger to NATO countries.  There is zero evidence that Russia has any intention to invade Poland, Finland or any other country.  This narrative conflicts with the other narrative espoused that Russia ia a paper tiger incapable of even winning in regions of Ukraine.  But we are supposed to believe that they are going to invade a NATO country etc?  It's ridiculous.

[Jon Banks]

Spot on. Crimea has always been a hot spot. Russia has already lost a war over Crimea once (1853 - 1856) which took them decades to recover from and that was before modern war ships and Russia's need for a harbor that not only gives them access to the Black Sea but the Mediterramean Sea and beyond as well.

It is very possible that Russia will negotiate a peace if they lose control of Crimea. In such an event they might even be willing to give up all other occupied land. Which, of course, is exactly the reason why Ukraine should focus on cutting off Russia's supply lines to the Crimea.

No matter what Ukraine says, they’re not going to take Crimea by force.

It could become a frozen conflict where Ukraine never officially acknowledges that Crimea is part of Russia, like Syria and the Golan Heights.

But realistically, their chances of taking Crimea by force are very low.

[Jon Banks]

I'm not sure Russia ever intended to take over all of Ukraine.  There are disputed regions in Ukraine in which there is a high percentage of ethnic Russians who prefer Russian rule.  The fighting has been limited mostly to those areas.  The US media and government have exaggerated Russia's objectives to even suggest that they pose a danger to NATO countries.  There is zero evidence that Russia has any intention to invade Poland, Finland or any other country.  This narrative conflicts with the other narrative espoused that Russia ia a paper tiger incapable of even winning in regions of Ukraine.  But we are supposed to believe that they are going to invade a NATO country etc?  It's ridiculous.

Yeah, I have similar thoughts. The fighting in the Donbas started in 2014. Russia has been backing the Ukrainian separatists in eastern Ukraine. Western Ukraine is more ethnically Polish and Hungarian while eastern Ukraine is more culturally Russian. So it makes sense that Russia is focusing on the east.

I do however think that briefly when the invasion started there was a failed attempt to capture or kill Zelensky. Once the run on Kyiv failed, the Russians pulled their forces back and have focused on eastern Ukraine.

[Rick Plant]

Faux News is a joke always trying to protect indicted and twice impeached Criminal Donald.

Fox News caught editing out Trump’s brag that he would have let Putin “take over” parts of Ukraine
https://www.salon.com/2023/03/08/fox-news-caught-editing-out-trumps-brag-that-he-would-have-let-putin-take-over-parts-of-ukraine/

[Richard Smith]

Faux News is a joke always trying to protect indicted and twice impeached Criminal Donald.

Fox News caught editing out Trump’s brag that he would have let Putin “take over” parts of Ukraine
https://www.salon.com/2023/03/08/fox-news-caught-editing-out-trumps-brag-that-he-would-have-let-putin-take-over-parts-of-ukraine/

LOL.  Remember "minor incursion" Joe giving Russia the signal to invade through his weakness?  What is Ukraine Joe's plan now?  The disputed regions have been reduced to a moonscape.  Hundreds of billions have already been spent.  There is no end in sight.  Tens of thousands are dead due to Old Joe's weakness.  They will curse Biden's name in Ukraine for centuries. 

"It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do."

[Richard Smith]

According to various media sources, the recently leaked documents confirm that the US has military advisors in Ukraine.  So another lie of the Biden administration ("no boots on the ground") regarding this war has been exposed.  And that one is too familiar from the Vietnam era.  When you enter a regional conflict such as this one in which it is not possible to impose a defeat on the enemy through military means, the strategic initiative is solely with your enemy.  That was the situation in Vietnam.  That was the situation in Afghanistan.  And now it is the situation in Ukraine.  The war will go on for as long as the Russians want it too.  Maybe they call it quits next week or next month or ten years from now, but that decision is entirely in their hands.  Ukraine Joe has made no effort to change that equation.  In fact, the corrupt poltiical establishment want it to go on for as long as possible.  They are both enriched and the Cold War hawks finally get their chance to fight Russia.  It's like something out of Dr. Strangelove.