Colors of Blue and Gold

[Richard Smith]

Totally false Russian propaganda. Russia has already sent in their best. Like the 1st Guards Tank Army, an elite unit tracing descent back to the army that was formed in 1942 and fought successfully during the Battle of Stalingrad.

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported on 19 May 2022 that army commander General-Lieutenant Sergey Kisel had been suspended for his failure to capture Kharkiv. The same army that helped take Berlin in 1945 could not take Kharkiv in 2022. So much for the 1st Guards Tank Army.

The Russians have even thrown in the experienced men who trained new recruits, leaving no one qualified to train the recent 300,000 draftees.

Because the best has already been thrown in, that is why they lost over 1,000 square miles east of Kharkiv in September. That is why they lost the regional capitol of Kherson in November. And can only gain small slivers of territory around Bakhmut in response, while thousands of Ukrainians are away from the front and out of the country training on NATO equipment or learning NATO combined arms tactics for the real battle in the upcoming summer, spearheaded by the NATO supplied Leopard 2 tanks. Look to the south.

Why is Putin risking civil upheaval by drafting 300,000 nearly worthless draftees, when he could just send in the real army at anytime and steamroll the Ukrainians? Because he has already sent in the real army. The Russian army of 2022 was not the Russian army of 1945. Or even 1980. Even our own military experts grossly overestimated the Russian army, based on past history that no longer applies. It has become a corrupt riddled shell of it's previous self only capable of strong anti-air defense and huge artillery bombardments burning through the Soviet era surplus at a rate which cannot be nearly matched by new production.

There is propaganda but it is not just coming from Russia.  The Russians have not sent their best tanks, planes and soldiers.  They have sent mostly conscripts and mercenaries who are ill-trained and equipped.  The Russians dying in this war are mostly from poor and rural hinterlands with no political influence in Moscow.  It is much riskier to have the elite sons from Moscow and St. Petersburg families dying in Ukraine.  Putin underestimated the resistance.  He can up the ante as he sees fit.  There is no strategy for victory by Ukraine or NATO.  At best they can extend the conflict indefinitely until Ukraine is a pile of rubble.   The only hope being that they eventually out last Russia as the Taliban did in Afghanistan.  A strategy that will take years and maximize the number of deaths and destruction on all sides as in previous such situations. 

[Martin Weidmann]

Hitler sent thousands of tanks against Russia and lost.  So it is difficult to understand how 14 Leopards is going to change the situation.  What happens next is that Ukraine will insist on jets.  When that doesn't change the situation, they will request US and NATO ground troops.  The problem here is that no matter what they are sent it is up to Russians as to when this war ends.  Ukraine can't militarily defeat Russia by driving to Moscow.  They can only keep up the fight and hope the Russians eventually lose their political will to continue the war.  A strategy that generally takes many years.

Hitler sent thousands of tanks against Russia and lost.  So it is difficult to understand how 14 Leopards is going to change the situation.

What an ignorant comment. Hitler invaded Russia itself and got stuck in Stalingrad in the winter. The Russians basically used the same tactic as they did when Napoleon invaded.

Ukraine is not going to invade Russia. The Leopards, of which there will be far more than 14 (Germany alone is sending some 90), will be used to kick Russia out of Ukraine.

Ukraine can't militarily defeat Russia by driving to Moscow.

They never had any plans to do so. But they sure as hell can kick Russia out of their country.

Two factors will determine the outcome; (1) the decline of the economic situation of Russia (to date imports and exports are down by 50% and (2) the inability of Russia to take over Ukraine completely. Combined this means a prolonged military conflict that's going nowhere fast and ending up being pointless and lots of hardship for the Russian people.

The Russian tried to win this war on the cheap.  They sent their most poorly trained troops and equipment.  That could change.  The Russians have the tanks and troops to overrun Ukraine in a week if they unleash them.  Does NATO and the US allow that to happen or do they send in ground troops? 

Wow, so much admiration for Russia from a guy who clearly hates the country he's now living in. Perhaps a change of address is in order!

[Richard Smith]

Hitler sent thousands of tanks against Russia and lost.  So it is difficult to understand how 14 Leopards is going to change the situation.

What an ignorant comment. Hitler invaded Russia itself and got stuck in Stalingrad in the winter. The Russians basically used the same tactic as they did when Napoleon invaded.

Ukraine is not going to invade Russia. The Leopards, of which there will be far more than 14 (Germany alone is sending some 90), will be used to kick Russia out of Ukraine.

Ukraine can't militarily defeat Russia by driving to Moscow.

They never had any planes to do so. But they sure as hell can kick Russia out of their country.

Two factors will determine the outcome; (1) the decline of the economic situation of Russia (to date imports and exports are down by 50% and (2) the inability of Russia to take over Ukraine completely. Combined this means a prolonged military conflict that's going nowhere fast and ending up being pointless and lots of hardship for the Russian people.

Wow, so much admiration for Russia from a guy who clearly hates the country he's now living in. Perhaps a change of address is in order!

A grain of wisdom here amongst the usual ignorance and insults.  Ukraine cannot, no matter how many weapons they are ever given, invade and conquer Russia.  As a result, the strategic outcome as to how long this war goes on and ends is totally with the Russians.  The only thing Ukraine can do is hold out and hope that Russia eventually tires of the conflict.  Asking for more and more weapons like fighter jets and ground forces. A strategy that will take years and maximize the destruction and deaths.  History repeating itself over and over.  A handful of tanks will make little difference here except to escalate the Russian response.  Something that has already occurred. 

And how is that investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline coming?  That event happened months ago and the US blamed Russia.  As though Russia would blow up its own pipeline.  And if they did so, the US military and intelligence resources still have no proof to offer.  LOL.  I'm glad only the Russians use propaganda.

[Martin Weidmann]

A grain of wisdom here amongst the usual ignorance and insults.  Ukraine cannot, no matter how many weapons they are ever given, invade and conquer Russia.  As a result, the strategic outcome as to how long this war goes on and ends is totally with the Russians.  The only thing Ukraine can do is hold out and hope that Russia eventually tires of the conflict.  Asking for more and more weapons like fighter jets and ground forces. A strategy that will take years and maximize the destruction and deaths.  History repeating itself over and over.  A handful of tanks will make little difference here except to escalate the Russian response.  Something that has already occurred. 

And how is that investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline coming?  That event happened months ago and the US blamed Russia.  As though Russia would blow up its own pipeline.  And if they did so, the US military and intelligence resources still have no proof to offer.  LOL.  I'm glad only the Russians use propaganda.

Ukraine cannot, no matter how many weapons they are ever given, invade and conquer Russia.

They never had any intention to do so and if they did it would only prolong the war. Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against an aggressor. As such it will always be up to the aggressor to end hostilities. Time is not on Russia's side. The longer the war goes on, the more Russian deaths and the lack of results will have to be explained to a people that's already suffering under the sanctions. The more time goes by without any significant progress for Russia, the more popular support will wane. History will indeed repeat itself as Russia will ultimately have to pull out or go for mass destruction, which of course will include their own destruction as well.

[Jon Banks]

A grain of wisdom here amongst the usual ignorance and insults.  Ukraine cannot, no matter how many weapons they are ever given, invade and conquer Russia.  As a result, the strategic outcome as to how long this war goes on and ends is totally with the Russians.  The only thing Ukraine can do is hold out and hope that Russia eventually tires of the conflict.  Asking for more and more weapons like fighter jets and ground forces. A strategy that will take years and maximize the destruction and deaths.  History repeating itself over and over.  A handful of tanks will make little difference here except to escalate the Russian response.  Something that has already occurred. 

And how is that investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline coming?  That event happened months ago and the US blamed Russia.  As though Russia would blow up its own pipeline.  And if they did so, the US military and intelligence resources still have no proof to offer.  LOL.  I'm glad only the Russians use propaganda.

I suspect that the US and UK with the help of allies like maybe Poland sabotaged Germany's pipelines. And yes, the investigation is being conducted quietly as there's no evidence so far that Russia did it. Even if Germany suspects that the US was behind the sabotage, what can they do about it? Absolutely nothing.

[Jon Banks]

Ukraine cannot, no matter how many weapons they are ever given, invade and conquer Russia.

They never had any intention to do so and if they did it would only prolong the war. Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against an aggressor. As such it will always be up to the aggressor to end hostilities. Time is not on Russia's side. The longer the war goes on, the more Russian deaths and the lack of results will have to be explained to a people that's already suffering under the sanctions. The more time goes by without any significant progress for Russia, the more popular support will wane. History will indeed repeat itself as Russia will ultimately have to pull out or go for mass destruction, which of course will include their own destruction as well.

I wouldn't bet on any of those things coming to pass. Ukraine is likely to be destroyed before Russia (in the event that financial support for Ukraine from western countries dries up).

So far, Russians are rallying around the flag and Putin doesn't appear to be under much political pressure at home. A consequence of escalating against Russia is that the Russian people increasingly feel like they're at war with the West (not just Ukraine) regardless of who is responsible for starting the war. Russians view the war as existential for them.

Politico: Appealing to Russians to end the war on Ukraine is wasted breath

Western nations started imposing financial and commercial sanctions on Russia immediately after its invasion of Ukraine began. Their goal was to not only punish Russia and disrupt President Vladimir Putin’s war machine, but there was hope that the resulting economic hardship might persuade ordinary Russians to rebel, or prompt a putsch by Kremlin insiders or oligarchs.

Nearly a year on, however, there are few signs of any significant cracks appearing in what a Russian pollster dubbed a “broad consensus” backing Putin’s war. The overt splits and infighting taking place in both the Kremlin and the political-military establishment are over how to prosecute the war — not the future of the Russian leader — and public support for the war appears to remain high.

In a recent survey, Lev Gudkov’s Levada Center — currently the only independent opinion research organization in Russia — found that 53 percent of respondents subscribe to the view that Putin’s “special military operation” is progressing successfully. And in another survey last month, most respondents told Levada pollsters that “every real man should serve in the army.”

“State propaganda is still managing to forge a broad consensus,” Gudkov lamented in an interview.

Ukrainian lawmaker Mykola Kniazhytskyi agrees. “It is difficult to believe any Russian sociology, but it seems that the majority of Russians support the genocide against Ukrainians,” he told POLITICO.

Naturally, some have questioned the reliability of any sort of opinion polling coming out of Putin’s Russia. How trustworthy can the responses really be? If said in fear that a single word out of place might leak and prompt a late-night knock on the door, are those polled disguising what they really think?

Gudkov dismisses these questions of credibility, as his interviewers are well-trained, conduct long interviews and strive to ensure reliability. “People are not afraid to answer, that is a total misconception,” he said. And his overall bleak conclusion is that “Russians have little compassion for the Ukrainians.”

The absence of large-scale anti-war protests in Russia appears to attest to Levada’s findings. Any demonstrations that took place in the past year were sporadic and much smaller in size than the anti-Putin protests seen from 2011 to 2013 and 2017 to 2019. On the afternoon of the invasion, for example, the largest demonstrations were in Moscow, where 2,000 protesters turned out, and in St. Petersburg there were around 1,000. But elsewhere across Russia, no city boasted more than a few hundred...

https://www.politico.eu/article/commentary-ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-invasion-end/

[Martin Weidmann]

I wouldn't bet on any of those things coming to pass. Ukraine is likely to be destroyed before Russia (in the event that financial support for Ukraine from western countries dries up).

So far, Russians are rallying around the flag and Putin doesn't appear to be under much political pressure at home. A consequence of escalating against Russia is that the Russian people increasingly feel like they're at war with the West (not just Ukraine) regardless of who is responsible for starting the war. Russians view the war as existential for them.

Politico: Appealing to Russians to end the war on Ukraine is wasted breath

Western nations started imposing financial and commercial sanctions on Russia immediately after its invasion of Ukraine began. Their goal was to not only punish Russia and disrupt President Vladimir Putin’s war machine, but there was hope that the resulting economic hardship might persuade ordinary Russians to rebel, or prompt a putsch by Kremlin insiders or oligarchs.

Nearly a year on, however, there are few signs of any significant cracks appearing in what a Russian pollster dubbed a “broad consensus” backing Putin’s war. The overt splits and infighting taking place in both the Kremlin and the political-military establishment are over how to prosecute the war — not the future of the Russian leader — and public support for the war appears to remain high.

In a recent survey, Lev Gudkov’s Levada Center — currently the only independent opinion research organization in Russia — found that 53 percent of respondents subscribe to the view that Putin’s “special military operation” is progressing successfully. And in another survey last month, most respondents told Levada pollsters that “every real man should serve in the army.”

“State propaganda is still managing to forge a broad consensus,” Gudkov lamented in an interview.

Ukrainian lawmaker Mykola Kniazhytskyi agrees. “It is difficult to believe any Russian sociology, but it seems that the majority of Russians support the genocide against Ukrainians,” he told POLITICO.

Naturally, some have questioned the reliability of any sort of opinion polling coming out of Putin’s Russia. How trustworthy can the responses really be? If said in fear that a single word out of place might leak and prompt a late-night knock on the door, are those polled disguising what they really think?

Gudkov dismisses these questions of credibility, as his interviewers are well-trained, conduct long interviews and strive to ensure reliability. “People are not afraid to answer, that is a total misconception,” he said. And his overall bleak conclusion is that “Russians have little compassion for the Ukrainians.”

The absence of large-scale anti-war protests in Russia appears to attest to Levada’s findings. Any demonstrations that took place in the past year were sporadic and much smaller in size than the anti-Putin protests seen from 2011 to 2013 and 2017 to 2019. On the afternoon of the invasion, for example, the largest demonstrations were in Moscow, where 2,000 protesters turned out, and in St. Petersburg there were around 1,000. But elsewhere across Russia, no city boasted more than a few hundred...

https://www.politico.eu/article/commentary-ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-invasion-end/

So far, Russians are rallying around the flag and Putin doesn't appear to be under much political pressure at home.

Really? Perhaps according to Russian propaganda.

Nearly a year on, however, there are few signs of any significant cracks appearing in what a Russian pollster dubbed a “broad consensus” backing Putin’s war.

I seriously doubt that there has been one Western leader, supporting Ukraine, who believed the sanctions would settle the matter within a year.

Having said that, the result of the sanctions has already been that Russia's import and export are at only 50% from what they used to be before the war. Can you name me one economy in the world that can sustain such a reduction for a long period of time? And that's even before the income from natural gas and oil will dry up further as the West is getting it elsewhere.