The bullet most like struck JFK and Connally at z222.
The bullet does not have to strike the lapel to move the lapel. Put on a man’s dress coat or sports coat, make a strong ‘tap’ (pushing outward) one side of the coat, several inches below the lapel, and the whole side of the coat will bulge forward, including the lapel. If the tap is strong enough, I imagine the lapel could ‘flip’.
As an aside, I’m not certain the lapel ‘flipped’ upward. The detail in the Zapruder film is not strong enough to say, in my layman’s opinion. But surely the coat moved suddenly, as can most clearly be seen in frame z224.
Support for the hit at z222, and not a later hit on Connally in the z230’s, is:
* The sudden ‘blurring’ of the “Soon to be hit” Connally at z223, not seen in the unwounded occupants of the limousine, only him, as if he was suddenly wounded.
* The sudden movement of the “Soon to be hit” right side of Connally’s coat, reaching a maximum at z224.
* The sudden jerking up of JFK elbows upwards starting at z226, a pose we would hold, more or less, until the head shot at z312.
* The sudden jerking up of Connally’s “Soon to be hit” right wrist, also starting at z226, causing his right hand to suddenly rise 6 inches in the next few frames.
* The sudden movement of the camera at z227-z228, causing blurring of the whole frame, 5 to 6 frames after z222, and similar to the similar camera movement at z318, 6 frames after z312.
The support for a shot at z222 is overwhelming. There are too many coincidences if this theory is false.
