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Author Topic: Oswald's shot-1 ricochet was at Z113 or Z105.  (Read 32870 times)

Online Andrew Mason

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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #64 on: August 27, 2021, 10:54:28 PM »
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Moore said the car was on this side of the Thornton sign, meaning it hadn't reached it. You really think Moore could calculate the President was exactly perpendicular to the Thornton sign when Moore was almost directly behind the President?
According to his statement, he said "By the time President Kennedy had reached the Thornton Freeway sign a shot was fired and Mr. MOORE observed the President slumping forward in the Presidential car."  I wasn't there.  I don't see why he would not be able to see that.

BUT we don't have to rely on just him.  There are at least 20 other witnesses who said that JFK moved left or slumped or assumed a blank look or clutched at his neck etc. (different vantage points) immediately after the first shot. He did that just after z200.  Not a single witness said he smiled and waved for 2-3 seconds as you insist he did.  Also, the shot pattern with the last two shots close together in rapid succession means that JFK was hit by the first shot.  I know you think all that evidence is mistaken but I don't think that many witnesses can possibly be independently mistaken in exactly the same way (let alone that they were).

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The Willis girl apparently got her signs mixed up. Perhaps influenced by her father's slide that featured the Stemmons sign. Her father, BTW, said the first shot occurred between his slide at Z133 and Z202. It made, he said, Mrs. Kennedy look from his side of the street to the opposite side.

Right. Another witness whose evidence must be wrong in order to cling to the SBT.

« Last Edit: August 27, 2021, 10:56:14 PM by Andrew Mason »

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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #64 on: August 27, 2021, 10:54:28 PM »


Online Jerry Organ

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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #65 on: August 27, 2021, 11:34:06 PM »
According to his statement, he said "By the time President Kennedy had reached the Thornton Freeway sign a shot was fired and Mr. MOORE observed the President slumping forward in the Presidential car."  I wasn't there.  I don't see why he would not be able to see that.

BUT we don't have to rely on just him.  There are at least 20 other witnesses who said that JFK moved left or slumped or assumed a blank look or clutched at his neck etc. (different vantage points) immediately after the first shot. He did that just after z200.  Not a single witness said he smiled and waved for 2-3 seconds as you insist he did. 

It's just that most of your "didn't see the President smile" witnesses were behind the President. So--from a defense attorney standpoint--you're "correct". Mary Woodward was off to the side and said the President didn't slump until the second shot.

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Also, the shot pattern with the last two shots close together in rapid succession means that JFK was hit by the first shot.

    "While it is true that a majority of ear-witnesses reported that the second and
     third shots were closer than the first and second, only 39% of respondents
     mentioned the spacing of the shots at all. Sixty-one percent didn’t mention
     (or were never asked about) the spacing of the shots. Of those who did,
     5% thought the first two were closer together, 25% thought the last two were
     closer together, and 9% though the shots were evenly spaced.
        One-quarter is hardly a meaningful percentage given the great pool of total
     ear-witnesses"

          — Dale K Myers (Dec20-2007)
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I know you think all that evidence is mistaken

Hold on, cowboy. It's your interpretation of the evidence that I find wrong.

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but I don't think that many witnesses can possibly be independently mistaken in exactly the same way (let alone that they were).

I've explained that to you countless times. If the witnesses arrived in Dealey Plaza anticipating they were about to hear three loud reports and to register in their minds the time span between each one, then that "shot pattern" consensus might have some footing. And aren't you saying the even-spacing and longer-pause-between-one-and-two witnesses are mistaken?

Why would anyone begin to take stock of the length of time between shots one and two, if most (it seems) thought the first shot was just a "backfire" or "firecracker"? No reason whatsoever to anticipate a second loud report. But when they heard the second loud report, naturally their cognizant functions heightened. They're weren't dumbstruck or anything; just when questioned later on, arrived at a perfectly understandable false memory. There's also the question of whether the siren was activated between shots two and three, which--with all the other stuff unfolding--could make the one-to-two shot span seem pretty ordinary and remote.

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Right. Another witness whose evidence must be wrong in order to cling to the SBT.



No. What I showed was empirical evidence that Linda Willis could not possible see the President when he was between her and the Stemmons sign. The empirical evidence shows she could see without obstruction the President when he was between her and the Thornton sign. I'm sorry this undermines your Pet Theory.

BTW, you're so anti-SBT, you might as well come out of the closet and be a conspiracy nut.  :D
« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 04:10:41 AM by Jerry Organ »

Online Marjan Rynkiewicz

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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #66 on: August 28, 2021, 02:47:46 AM »
Hickey in rear of Queen Mary begins to lean & look near the rear tyre at Z144 -- which supports shot-1 being at Z113.

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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #66 on: August 28, 2021, 02:47:46 AM »


Online Marjan Rynkiewicz

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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #67 on: August 28, 2021, 03:30:21 AM »
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/scearce.htm
HIDDEN IN PLAIN VIEW: The Zapruder Film and the Shot that Missed
By Kenneth R. Scearce
November 27th, 2007
Returning now to the actions in the early Zapruder frames, we can draw the following inferences:

•   The leftward head turns of JFK, Mrs. Kennedy, Hickey and Connally visible in the earliest Zapruder frames were almost exactly simultaneous. JFK begins to turn his head left at Z140. Mrs. Kennedy begins to turn her head left at Z142. Hickey begins to look left and downwards, starting at Z143/144. At Z149, Connally begins to turn his head left. JFK, Mrs. Kennedy, Hickey and Connally begin their leftward head movements within ½ second of each other. This simultaneity suggests that the leftward head turns of these four people were probably due to the same cause.

•   The Zapruder film shows that JFK, Connally and Mrs. Kennedy first turned their heads left before turning their heads right. When viewed dynamically, it is clear that the leftward and then rightward head turns of JFK, Connally and Mrs. Kennedy are related to each other. Their rightward head turns are a continuation of their leftward head turns a moment before. Looking only at their later rightwards head turns while ignoring their earlier, related leftward head turns—as the Myers/consensus timing does—results in misinterpretation of the evidence.

•   The 1st shot was fired from the right rear. The movements discussed herein were towards the left first, then towards the right. The sound dynamics in the assassination environment may explain this, or the explanation may be simply that the people in question were confused. If the 1st shot ricocheted off the metal traffic light arm and hit the pavement, it could have produced a smacking sound to the left of the limousine. Or, the explanation could be a multiplicity of these and other factors.

•   Viewed individually, each of these leftward head turns might by explainable for reasons other than gunshot reactions—for instance, as reactions to the crowd. But when considered collectively, the odds greatly diminish that these abrupt actions—occurring well before the consensus Z155–Z157 timing—are explainable innocuously. Hickey looks left and downwards at the pavement or at the tires the vehicles, not at the crowd. Connally’s left/right head swing is much too fast too have been a reaction to the crowd—it is obviously a reaction to severe stress.

•   The dramatic nature of the reactions (especially Connally’s) necessitates a threatening stimulus. The simultaneity of the reactions suggests a common cause. The timing of the beginning of these reactions in frames Z140–Z149 indicates, if we allow for naturalistic reaction time of 1–2 seconds, that the threatening stimulus occurred before Z133.

We have seen that Connally’s sudden left-then-right head turns refute the notion that the 1st first shot was fired at around Z155–Z157. It must have been fired earlier. The farther back in time and space the 1st shot was fired, the less chance there was that the tree could explain the fact that the shot missed. At some point farther back from the Z155–Z157 consensus timing, the tree simply cannot be the explanation. We can see this by extrapolating JFK’s position from the following Secret Service re-enactment photograph:

At this moment (Z140), which would allow for a ½ second head-turning reaction by Connally (much faster than natural, but about as generous as possible to Myers), the tree is not yet a plausible cause of a ricochet. The more naturalistic 1–2 second reaction time likewise rules out the tree as a cause.

Prior to the tree, only one other possible cause for a ricochet existed: the traffic light’s extension arm.

A 1st shot occurring just before Z133 not only fits with the film’s images and the physical evidence at the crime scene, it also corresponds well with the Holland/Rush metal traffic light arm ricochet theory—a theory that explains the missed shot, and some of the other thorniest issues about the assassination in general such as whether Oswald could have accomplished the feat alone, better than any other theory heretofore conceived.

At its core, the Myers/consensus timing stands or falls on the accuracy of Connally’s recollection of the direction in which he first turned his head after hearing the 1st shot. The film is the best evidence of this, not Connally.

#59 Brian Roselle
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2792.50.html

https://sites.google.com/site/earlyzapruderfilmreactions/reactions-seen-early-in-zapruder-film

https://www.acsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-Estimating-Occult-Timing-of-Surprise-Gunshot-Sounds-in-Silent-Film-via-Observed-Start-of-Human-Voluntary-Reactions-of-Concern-Roselle.pdf

https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2792.40.html
« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 04:46:24 AM by Marjan Rynkiewicz »

Online Jerry Organ

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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #68 on: August 28, 2021, 04:21:40 AM »
The leftward head turns of JFK, Mrs. Kennedy, Hickey and Connally visible in the earliest Zapruder frames were almost exactly simultaneous. JFK begins to turn his head left at Z140. Mrs. Kennedy begins to turn her head left at Z142. Hickey begins to look left and downwards, starting at Z143/144. At Z149, Connally begins to turn his head left. JFK, Mrs. Kennedy, Hickey and Connally begin their leftward head movements within ½ second of each other. This simultaneity suggests that the leftward head turns of these four people were probably due to the same cause.

The Governor said he turn to his right when he heard the first shot, not to his left. Mrs. Kennedy made her head turn more to the left because she was engaged with the taking of the photo by Robert Croft.



Hickey said he looked right, not to his left, in reaction to the first shot.

    "After a very short distance I heard a loud report which seemed like a firecracker.
     It appeared to come from my right and rear and seemed to me to be at ground
     level. I stood up and looked to my right and rear in an attempt to identify it."

Hickey doesn't say he looked to the pavement on his left.


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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #68 on: August 28, 2021, 04:21:40 AM »


Online Marjan Rynkiewicz

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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #69 on: August 28, 2021, 05:07:50 AM »
The Governor said he turn to his right when he heard the first shot, not to his left. Mrs. Kennedy made her head turn more to the left because she was engaged with the taking of the photo by Robert Croft.

Hickey said he looked right, not to his left, in reaction to the first shot.

    "After a very short distance I heard a loud report which seemed like a firecracker.
     It appeared to come from my right and rear and seemed to me to be at ground
     level. I stood up and looked to my right and rear in an attempt to identify it."

Hickey doesn't say he looked to the pavement on his left.
Roselle & Scearce point out that Zapruder shows that Connally turned his head left (at Z150) & then turned his head right.

By the way, notice Kellerman (in passenger seat) looking facing turning pivoting hard right (koz he had heard JFK say my  god i have been hit)(by small lead fragments at Z113)(seen in xrays).

Yes Hickey turns right & looks back to the TSBD at say Z255 (Altgens-5 or something).
Yes Hickey didnt admit to checking the left tyre(s) at Z143/144. But Zapruder shows that he did turn & lean & look.
Anyhow R&S reckon that shot-1 was 0.5 sec before Z133, Holland says 1.5 sec, i said it was at Z113 which would make it 20 frames before, ie 1.1 sec. Anyhow, Holland & i i think agree exactly on where shot-1 was, it was where the signal arm was on the line from the Carcano to JFK's back.

I might as well add, that Connally at shot-2 at Z218 (the magic bullet) was not turned to his right (as is always wrongly depicted), he was halfway throo turning to his left when he was hit (he said).

I might as well add, Hickey was sitting up on 2 leather cases, the big one was for praps the AR15, the small one praps for ammo.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 06:05:24 AM by Marjan Rynkiewicz »

Online Marjan Rynkiewicz

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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #70 on: August 28, 2021, 05:26:19 AM »
In her book Tina Towner, page 7, she states: “ ...but there was not enough time before the first gunshot sounded—only a second or two, if that, after I stopped filming.”

I believe I have seen a video in which she said that the first shot sounded just about the time that she stopped filming. I don’t remember which video. But I will point it out if I come across it again.

Regardless, she didn’t time it with a stopwatch.
Yes i saw that footage too. Tina said that she stopped filming just before or just after the first shot. She was standing at that corner when talking. It wasnt long ago, some anniversary. At other times she has said that she stopped filming a couple of seconds before the shot, & even 4 seconds before. Anyhow i had a long look for that footage, but couldnt find it.

If my estimate of Z113 is correct for shot-1 then her T142 is at say Z118. Hence she stopped filming 15 Zapruder frames before Z133.
If Hollands Z106 is correct for shot-1 then Tina stopped filming at Z111, which is 22 frames before Z133.

The first shot was at T137, the slug hit the signal arm at T138, the sound hit Tina's ear at T139, the ear told Tina's brain at T141, & Tina stopped filming at T142.
So, she stopped filming at nearnuff the same time as the (sound of the) shot.

There should have been a camera jiggle at T139, due to the noise.
But Tina was holding tightly i guess.
And any jiggle would depend on aim/tilt of camera & on direction of shockwave i suppose.

There would have been a camera jiggle at say T143, due to a non-voluntary startle reaction.

And a camera jump at say T153 due to a voluntary fright reaction.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 05:49:40 AM by Marjan Rynkiewicz »

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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #70 on: August 28, 2021, 05:26:19 AM »


Online Jerry Organ

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Re: Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
« Reply #71 on: August 28, 2021, 06:32:15 AM »
I might as well add, Hickey was sitting up on 2 leather cases, the big one was for praps the AR15, the small one praps for ammo.



For what it's worth, Hickey might have been propped against the cases, with his feet on the floor, up against the jump-seat.