JFK Assassination Plus General Discussion & Debate > JFK Assassination Plus General Discussion And Debate
Oswald's shot-1 ricochet was at Z113 or Z105.
Marjan Rynkiewicz:
--- Quote from: Jerry Organ on May 08, 2021, 06:47:59 PM ---You're so invested in this, you're beyond persuasion. My reality checks are for the benefit of readers.
Tina Towner has been consistent in stating the first shot occurred after she stopped filming, the span ranging from a few seconds to four. You might be thinking of her appearance in "JFK: The Lost Bullet" when they failed to present her timing of the first shot, but had room for things like "My dad recognized the gunshot."
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My only memory of Tina re shot-1 is that (i think it was in a modern youtube interview) she said that she wasn’t sure whether just before or just after. I have no knowledge of any other wordage, & i am surprised that she said a few second after or four sec after. Back in february i spent a whole day analysing the JFK pozzy relative to the painted white striped lane lines & i found that JFK was on the Carcano to signal arm line at Towner T137, slug hit at T138, sound hit at T139. And Tina would have "heard" at say T141. And T142 was her last frame. A very accurate 3D analysis might show that my geometry calculations were out a foot or two, which would equate to a frame or two.
And i didn’t do an accurate assessment of limo speed etc to calculate when T137-138-139 might have happened in relation to Zapruder's footage, ie if Zapruder had started that sequence earlier. I simply roughly worked it out based on i think 1 foot of limo travel per Zapruder frame, which gave me Z112-113-114. Hence that could be a long way out timewise, which aint very important, the main thing being exactly where not when, the where being that shot-1 hit the signal arm, & of course that being the when i suppose.
In Reply#27 i alerted this forum to a new witness Howard Whatley who said that the shot-1 was just as the limo straightened up in Elm St. And he was standing out in the intersection near the north west corner, ie much closer than Moore near the south east corner.
--- Quote from: Jerry Organ on May 08, 2021, 06:47:59 PM ---
From the Pat Speer site.
From the Pat Speer site.Line drawing of the Hickey shot from the "Mortal Error" book (flipped for comparison purposes) and superimposed over a Bronson film frame. Agents were seated too low to accord with the "Mortal Error" drawing.
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I have drawn proper drawings. The AR15 needed to be at least 3" higher than the windshield (based on being on level ground). And i have shown that the AR15 in Donahue's drawing (which is drawn 10" higher than the windshield) would be at chest height on Hickey if Hickey were standing on carpet.
And, nearly forgot, if Queen Mary were braking (which it was) then the front might sink an inch & rear might rise an inch, which brings that there 3" down to praps 1". However me myself i reckon that the AR15 was at say 10", the 1" being the minimum.
--- Quote from: Jerry Organ on May 08, 2021, 06:47:59 PM ---Sorry but the frame presented by Pat Speer is indeed the Bronson frame that corresponds to Z313.
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Now, that is the only legitimate concern arising from all of your wordage. I was thinking yesterday that i needed to have another look at where Z313 sits in the Bronson footage. Months ago i worked out that that Bronson frame was at about Z315. That’s a tight squeeze but do-able if Hickey fired one shot, ie Hickey would be standing at Z313 & sitting at Z315. But yesterday i was thinking that my theory that Hickey fired an auto burst of 6 shots needed that Bronson frame to be at say Z329. I will have to re-visit that stuff.
It would be nice if The 6th Floor Museum made public its superior 2019 copies of the Bronson frames (20 frames).
--- Quote from: Jerry Organ on May 08, 2021, 06:47:59 PM ---
Kenneth Weissman (KSW Consulting LLC) analysis 2020.
In this Bronson frame, Hickey is about a half-head higher and to camera-right of Bennett, Bennett being the figure above the camera-right crack of the rear door in the superimposed Donahue drawing. A rifle held at Hickey's shoulder level would fire a bullet to Kennedy's skull that would go through the Queen Mary's windshield.
Yes, a website had an arrow for Hickey that pointed to Bennett.
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I dealt with this stuff in my Reply#37 in my thread re "was Hickey's AR15 in burst mode?". Here is the drawing, & today i added the yellow & green lines. When Hickey was half sitting half standing on the 2 leather cases on the back seat the top of Hickey's head was level with the bottom of the heads of the standing Agents (see yellow ovals).
I have drawn Bennett's head (yellow oval) level with the top of the windshield, however in photos it was below the windshield (not important here). The Secret Service said that had JFK been sitting in Queen Mary his head would have been 62" above the road, ie 2" above the windshield, ie 9.22" above the level of JFK's head in the JFK limo. But that was based on Hess & Eisenhardt's estimate of 52.78" for JFK's head in the limo, which is a ridiculously low number (my estimate is 57").
The fat green line shows a possible slug traject clearing the windshield based on Queen Mary dipping a couple of inches due to braking. This in effect lowers the needed elevation of the AR15 to 61", ie 1" above the windshield.
--- Quote from: Jerry Organ on May 08, 2021, 06:47:59 PM ---Weissman used a better-quality frame and determined the linear "rifle" features in an earlier frame capture were "some grain clumping".
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I dealt with all of this in my thread re "was Hickey's AR15 in burst mode?". The superior 2019 copy shown by Weissman in fact supports my theory, koz we can see a rapidly swinging upwards AR15, which supports my theory that Hickey was rapidly falling backwards. And it proves that the AR15 sitting up at 45 deg in the 2017 copy is not an artifact.
The critical thing being that we need to establish very accurately whether that frame was at Z313 (they say) or at Z315 (i said) or at Z329 (to fully support my 6-shot auto burst theory).
--- Quote from: Jerry Organ on May 08, 2021, 06:47:59 PM ---Marilyn Sitzman, who steadied Zapruder and would have heard the sound of the camera motor, said:
"and just as the motorcycles ... started down the hill, he started taking
pictures then ... There was nothing unusual until the first sound."
You get to dismiss testimony and opinion contrary to your pet theory because authorities were disingenuous.
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If 99% of witness wordage is false then no theory survives without dismissing the contrary wordage. But any such dismissing needs to be logical. Sitzman appears to me to be one of the better witnesses. However there were lots of witnesses that heard a very early shot.
--- Quote from: Jerry Organ on May 08, 2021, 06:47:59 PM ---And those "heroes" have statues with manure spreaders for pedestals. It's your theory that's a zero. You're a pseudo-fence-sitter. Like the "Independent" voter who actually favors one party but are just too lazy or disingenuous to give an answer. They think it makes them more "clever" and "open-minded" than the Decided.
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I haven't spent much time studying the LNer versus CTer stuff (so yes i am lazy). Hickeyians like myself are i suppose CUers, ie we believe that there was a coverup re Hickey. In effect Oswald was a lone nutter, who fired 2 shots. And in effect there was a conspiracy, but after the fact.
I think that i am clever, but everyone is cleverer than me at something, I think i am clever at telling the difference tween truth & camel droppings.
But it all comes down to the Bronson footage. I will have another look.
Marjan Rynkiewicz:
--- Quote from: Mark Tyler on May 09, 2021, 12:39:35 AM ---Hi Marjan. This bedside interview is a great reminder of the fact that John Connally had a near death experience and may not be the best witness in the world. Someone told me a few months ago to completely ignore everything he said because he was too confused to be reliable and Nellie Connally had groomed him into believing what she heard which was two shots in quick succession with the first hitting JFK and the second hitting Connally.
On the other hand he did mention looking back at JFK which he definitely did do in the Zapruder film by frame Z275:
However, most people think he was hit by Z225 (Connally himself studied the Z-film for the Warren Commission and said he was hit by Z230). I feel some of his statements ring true, but others are confused (such as he said he looked over to his left at JFK, when actually he looked over to his right).
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Yes Connally was one of the best witnesses. But as u say his wordage did wander a little over the weeks & years. But he in effect supports shot-1 being at the signals.
Nellie was a horrible witness. Jackie was worse.
Notice in the croft photo at Z161 that Jackie & Connally are unhappy. Why? Koz shot-1 has been at the signals at Z113, ie 2.6 sec earlier.
Re shot-2, this i say was at Z218, ie when Connally is halfway throo the Stemmons sign. Base on him looking right then beginning to rotate left. Z218 is the only frame that shows this. Yes i know it duznt show this koz Connally is hidden at Z218, so lets put it another way, it is the only frame that duznt not show it.
Mark Tyler:
--- Quote from: Marjan Rynkiewicz on May 09, 2021, 02:00:06 AM ---Yes Connally was one of the best witnesses. But as u say his wordage did wander a little over the weeks & years. But he in effect supports shot-1 being at the signals.
Nellie was a horrible witness. Jackie was worse.
Notice in the croft photo at Z161 that Jackie & Connally are unhappy. Why? Koz shot-1 has been at the signals at Z113, ie 2.6 sec earlier.
Re shot-2, this i say was at Z218, ie when Connally is halfway throo the Stemmons sign. Base on him looking right then beginning to rotate left. Z218 is the only frame that shows this. Yes i know it duznt show this koz Connally is hidden at Z218, so lets put it another way, it is the only frame that duznt not show it.
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An early shot before the Zapruder film starts is an interesting idea, and well worth exploring, but I have struggled to find evidence in favour of it from the 1963/4 witness statements. Max Holland and others did a brilliant job about ten years ago interviewing the elderly surviving witnesses, but their 50 year old memories were clearly foggy and not of forensic quality.
For example, Pierce Allman gave a very detail account of what he heard within hours of the assassination:
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGGErAUc1x8
This is a very useful statement as he was so close to the TSBD, and he saw JFK duck after the first shot (as we see in the Z-film after Z225). Sadly the ravages of time have taken their toll on Allman's memory and he has started substituting other peoples accounts, and what the Z-film shows, into his own recollections:
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNUSFxdrKtE
He is not alone, and other witnesses are just as bad (e.g. Jean Hill). The moral of the tale is to use early detailed witness statements if there are any, and ignore any contradictory statements made many years later.
In the Zapruder film we see no sudden reactions from the Secret Service agents at all from Z133-Z195 which leads me to believe that there were no shots at all until after Z180. Several people standing at the lamppost by the Thornton freeway sign specifically said that the limo had either passed them or was in front of them at the first shot, which again is after Z180, thus eliminating any possibility of an early shot before that point. Hugh Betzner took a photo at exactly Z186 and said the first shot was fired as he wound his film on, thus ruling out an earlier shot.
A shot fired at Z218 for the so called single bullet theory does have a fair amount of supporting evidence, such as the jiggle in the Z-film at Z227-Z235, which is perfectly consistent with a 9 frame delayed reaction (which closely mirrors the 8 frame delay after the Z310 shot which massively affected the Z-film at Z318 and later). With the victims reacting just after frame Z224, this again is a close match to Z218 as it would take 3-4 frames or longer for the victims to react (humans don't react instantly to things like this, so 100-200 ms reaction time is normal for the human nervous system to react).
The HSCA said the single bullet theory shot was around Z190 (based on the jiggle analysis and the dictabelt), but this requires a 2 second delayed reaction, which I think is slightly implausible (although not impossible). A missed shot at Z190 and the SBT at Z220 is also consistent with what John Connally said regarding a 2 second delay between the first and second shots (2:30 into the video):
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvUaJLrdoSs
Marjan Rynkiewicz:
--- Quote from: Mark Tyler on May 10, 2021, 05:23:07 PM ---An early shot before the Zapruder film starts is an interesting idea, and well worth exploring, but I have struggled to find evidence in favour of it from the 1963/4 witness statements. Max Holland and others did a brilliant job about ten years ago interviewing the elderly surviving witnesses, but their 50 year old memories were clearly foggy and not of forensic quality.
For example, Pierce Allman gave a very detail account of what he heard within hours of the assassination:
This is a very useful statement as he was so close to the TSBD, and he saw JFK duck after the first shot (as we see in the Z-film after Z225). Sadly the ravages of time have taken their toll on Allman's memory and he has started substituting other peoples accounts, and what the Z-film shows, into his own recollections:
He is not alone, and other witnesses are just as bad (e.g. Jean Hill). The moral of the tale is to use early detailed witness statements if there are any, and ignore any contradictory statements made many years later.
In the Zapruder film we see no sudden reactions from the Secret Service agents at all from Z133-Z195 which leads me to believe that there were no shots at all until after Z180. Several people standing at the lamppost by the Thornton freeway sign specifically said that the limo had either passed them or was in front of them at the first shot, which again is after Z180, thus eliminating any possibility of an early shot before that point. Hugh Betzner took a photo at exactly Z186 and said the first shot was fired as he wound his film on, thus ruling out an earlier shot.
A shot fired at Z218 for the so called single bullet theory does have a fair amount of supporting evidence, such as the jiggle in the Z-film at Z227-Z235, which is perfectly consistent with a 9 frame delayed reaction (which closely mirrors the 8 frame delay after the Z310 shot which massively affected the Z-film at Z318 and later). With the victims reacting just after frame Z224, this again is a close match to Z218 as it would take 3-4 frames or longer for the victims to react (humans don't react instantly to things like this, so 100-200 ms reaction time is normal for the human nervous system to react).
The HSCA said the single bullet theory shot was around Z190 (based on the jiggle analysis and the dictabelt), but this requires a 2 second delayed reaction, which I think is slightly implausible (although not impossible). A missed shot at Z190 and the SBT at Z220 is also consistent with what John Connally said regarding a 2 second delay between the first and second shots (2:30 into the video):
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I dont remember Pierce Allman. One thing, he says they turned the corner & boom. Which supports a shot at the signals.
Many witnesses mention an early shot. Moore is the best. Whatley is good.
If u search Roselle u will find his report on reactions which indicate a shot at the signals.
https://www.acsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-Estimating-Occult-Timing-of-Surprise-Gunshot-Sounds-in-Silent-Film-via-Observed-Start-of-Human-Voluntary-Reactions-of-Concern-Roselle.pdf
The hole in the floor of the limo is a good witness.
Connally is a very good witness. He never saw JFK or JFK's reaction at any time i think.
Connally heard 2 shots i think, ie both of Oswald's 2 shots. I think he missed hearing Hickey's shots.
Strangely in 1966 he is talking about there being 2 seconds tween shots, when in 1963 he mentions a span of 5 seconds & then another 5 seconds ie 10 or 11 seconds in all, which duznt jell with his statement that he heard only 2 shots.
So many contradictions it makes my brain hurt.
Yes, i explained the reaction times for shot-2 in my thread Oswald's shot-2 was at Z218.
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2861.0.html
Mark Tyler:
--- Quote from: Marjan Rynkiewicz on May 10, 2021, 11:37:31 PM ---I dont remember Pierce Allman. One thing, he says they turned the corner & boom. Which supports a shot at the signals.
Many witnesses mention an early shot. Moore is the best. Whatley is good.
If u search Weissman u will find his report on reactions which indicate a shot at the signals.
The hole in the floor of the limo is a good witness.
https://topekatornado.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/the-Bronson-Kennedy-assasination-film-investigation-Report.v2.1.pdf
An interesting report by kenneth s weissman -- "report: the bronson kennedy assassination film investigation" -- which says that Robin Unger's 2017 frames of Bronson's film (ie the ones i am using) are not as good as the 2019 frames.
Connally is a very good witness. He never saw JFK or JFK's reaction at any time i think.
Connally heard 2 shots i think, ie both of Oswald's 2 shots. I think he missed hearing Hickey's shots.
Strangely in 1966 he is talking about there being 2 seconds tween shots, when in 1963 he mentions a span of 5 seconds & then another 5 seconds ie 10 or 11 seconds in all, which duznt jell with his statement that he heard only 2 shots.
So many contradictions it makes my brain hurt.
Yes, i explained the reaction times for shot-2 in my thread Oswald's shot-2 was at Z218.
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2861.0.html
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You mentioned a witness named "Whatley", but I'm not familiar with this person. Could you link the source for who this witness was and what they said?
In his statement from January 1964, TE Moore said that JFK had reached the Thornton freeway sign when the first shot was fired. The general timing of this would have been around Z180-Z200 and can be referenced by the Betzner photo which shows the limo position at Z186 relative to the Thornton freeway sign:
Moore is one of many witnesses connecting the first shot with the Z180-Z200 timeframe, which directly challenges all theories which have a shot fired before Z170 and confirms that the Zapruder film jiggle Z190-Z210 is a result of Zapruder being startled by the first shot.
One very important point about John Connally's statement is that he said he heard a shot fired 2 second before he was hit, but he never heard the shot that hit him. In other words the only shots he heard were the shots fired around Z185, and Z310. This may mean that the 2 second delay was a body shock of some kind and there wasn't a shot fired at Z218 (as the HSCA suggested), or it means there were shots at Z185 and Z218 but he failed to hear the Z218 shot as he was distracted by the pain of the injury.
Sadly this dilemma cannot be resolved by Connally's statement alone, and the other witnesses are split somewhat: most say there was only one shot before JFK raised his arms, but enough mentioned two shots in quick succession so it should be seriously considered as a possibility.
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