The First Shot

[Tom Graves]

Dear danny BOY o'meara,

Unfortunately, you (or some other knucklehead) have mislabeled Secret Service agent Glen Bennett as "Hickey" in this version of the Z-201 frame.

Why in the world did you do that?

-- Tom

PS George Hickey's washed-out image can be discerned behind (and slightly lower than) Clint Hill's (McIntyre is hidden behind Hill).

They are similarly situated in Z-150:

https://assassinationresearch.com/zfilm/z150.jpg

[Tom Graves]

Herb Husker replied at another forum to John Corbett's questions about his analysis of the possibility that a bullet fragment from the Z-313 head shot wounded James Tague:

The main question about fragment velocity is a good one. Fragment velocity is one that couldn’t be looked up but had to be calculated. The model to do this was based on solving equations of motion for projectile travel, in this case bullet fragments, in horizontal and vertical directions. A decent estimate on the fragment ballistic coefficients was necessary to determine velocity retardation during flight.

The basis constants in the attached were looked up as the best values I could find for the necessary variables at play here. These were not totally arbitrary, but the best values I could find. The modeling then calculated the fragment velocities by using the solver function. The arbitrary value here was the starting input value for the fragment velocity. The model iterated that velocity value, while using the non-arbitrary other constants, to find out what velocity would solve the equation of motion for the given curb distance. Net, how fast would it have to be going to reach the curb by Tague under such conditions. Some variations on key variables were also looked at for a sensitivity analysis.

The two main base cases evaluated predicted 846 ft/sec and 888 ft/sec, so for the fragment exiting the limo something abound 850 ft/sec appeared to be a good estimate.

The surprising thing out of this analysis was at the terminal end of the trajectory at the curb strike, the trajectory was close to vertical, and the velocity was essentially the terminal velocity of a fragment having a poor ballistic coefficient.

Another surprising thing was a test I ran in my basement to test the general concept with a projectile's having a similar striking energy. I found that a vertical shearing curb strike could chip off shards off a concrete block and strike me in the leg while I was standing a few feet away.

The summary of the work here describes this in more detail.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CcnCy17Hwqqw3zBCK7ls8peA3DxmVzhk/view?fbclid=IwY2xjawUNquVwZG9mAWV4dG4DYWVtAjEwAGJyaWQRMUZjZ2dObDk1emhHSW1NYUdzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEeJG8GSrUlD4T-8jA5RY48A7vDLpCLmGyuncXSge0ythorYqh2qFYB3U8Bjl0_aem_fv7vr94a-tvdXN6B1TxRvQ&pli=1

[I was unable to copy-paste here a chart in that's in Huskr's reply, but the same chart is on page 3 of his study]

[Zeon Mason]

Herb Husker replied at another forum to John Corbett's questions about his analysis of the possibility that a bullet fragment from the Z-313 head shot wounded James Tague:

The main question about fragment velocity is a good one. Fragment velocity is one that couldn’t be looked up but had to be calculated. The model to do this was based on solving equations of motion for projectile travel, in this case bullet fragments, in horizontal and vertical directions. A decent estimate on the fragment ballistic coefficients was necessary to determine velocity retardation during flight.

The basis constants in the attached were looked up as the best values I could find for the necessary variables at play here. These were not totally arbitrary, but the best values I could find. The modeling then calculated the fragment velocities by using the solver function. The arbitrary value here was the starting input value for the fragment velocity. The model iterated that velocity value, while using the non-arbitrary other constants, to find out what velocity would solve the equation of motion for the given curb distance. Net, how fast would it have to be going to reach the curb by Tague under such conditions. Some variations on key variables were also looked at for a sensitivity analysis.

The two main base cases evaluated predicted 846 ft/sec and 888 ft/sec, so for the fragment exiting the limo something abound 850 ft/sec appeared to be a good estimate.

The surprising thing out of this analysis was at the terminal end of the trajectory at the curb strike, the trajectory was close to vertical, and the velocity was essentially the terminal velocity of a fragment having a poor ballistic coefficient.

Another surprising thing was a test I ran in my basement to test the general concept with a projectile's having a similar striking energy. I found that a vertical shearing curb strike could chip off shards off a concrete block and strike me in the leg while I was standing a few feet away.

The summary of the work here describes this in more detail.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CcnCy17Hwqqw3zBCK7ls8peA3DxmVzhk/view?fbclid=IwY2xjawUNquVwZG9mAWV4dG4DYWVtAjEwAGJyaWQRMUZjZ2dObDk1emhHSW1NYUdzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEeJG8GSrUlD4T-8jA5RY48A7vDLpCLmGyuncXSge0ythorYqh2qFYB3U8Bjl0_aem_fv7vr94a-tvdXN6B1TxRvQ&pli=1

[I was unable to copy-paste here a chart in that's in Huskr's reply, but the same chart is on page 3 of his study]

Thanks for some useful information. So if I’m understanding correct  a Z313 fragment could have had a velocity as high as 800 ft/ sec and still strike the curb if the fragments angle after exit from JFK skull was much more upward than the minimum angle required to go above the windshield.

Only question I have is how probable it is that  a fragment  deflects upward more than 45 degree after exiting the skull in order to have a steeper parabolic arc that shortens the horizontal distance traveled to coincide hitting the curb at the 800 ft/sec more  vertical strike angle of 45 degree or greater?

If it’s reasonable probable a fragment could deflect upward more than 45 degree upon exiting the skull at 800 ft/sec then I think the problem is finally solved. 
 

[John Corbett]

Thanks for some useful information. So if I’m understanding correct  a Z313 fragment could have had a velocity as high as 800 ft/ sec and still strike the curb if the fragments angle after exit from JFK skull was much more upward than the minimum angle required to go above the windshield.

Only question I have is how probable it is that  a fragment  deflects upward more than 45 degree after exiting the skull in order to have a steeper parabolic arc that shortens the horizontal distance traveled to coincide hitting the curb at the 800 ft/sec more  vertical strike angle of 45 degree or greater?

If it’s reasonable probable a fragment could deflect upward more than 45 degree upon exiting the skull at 800 ft/sec then I think the problem is finally solved. 

I don't think it's reasonable to think anyone is going to come up with accurate numbers for the exit velocity and the exit angle of the numerous fragments to determine if it is feasible that one of those fragments could have caused Tague's injury by chipping the concrete curb in front of him. I think we know how to frame the question but i don't know how you determine the right numbers. It's all guess work.

[Benjamin Cole]

The WC holds that JFK was struck in the lower rear half of his skull at Z-313. That puts his skull between the bullet that struck him, and the curb near Tague.

Some WC-backers contend the bullet-strike to JFK's skull caused a "jet effect," of matter exploding to the right of JFK's skull.

There are blow-outs on the right-side of JFKs skull in available x-rays, but none on the left.

Hard to see how a lead fragment could have squirted out of FMJ hitting the lower right of JFK's skull, and which caused a blow-out on the right-side of JFK's skull...but then a lead fragment went over left towards Tague.

A handgun fired from the GK would not have used a FMJ, but rather an ordinary lead slug. Only lead was detected on the curb strike near Tague.

Maybe a handgun is the source of the Tague strike.

I have never read a compelling explanation of the Tague curb strike. LNT or CT.

[John Corbett]

The WC holds that JFK was struck in the lower rear half of his skull at Z-313. That puts his skull between the bullet that struck him, and the curb near Tague.

Some WC-backers contend the bullet-strike to JFK's skull caused a "jet effect," of matter exploding to the right of JFK's skull.

Jet effect is a real phenomenon but probably not the primary cause of JFK's rearward movement. That was likely a neuro-muscular reaction to the massive brain trauma.

There are blow-outs on the right-side of JFKs skull in available x-rays, but none on the left.

Hard to see how a lead fragment could have squirted out of FMJ hitting the lower right of JFK's skull, and which caused a blow-out on the right-side of JFK's skull...but then a lead fragment went over left towards Tague.

When the bullet struck JFK's head, he was leaning hard to the right. The would have rotated the upper right side of his head toward the top which is why we see the dispersion of blood and brains going forward and upward in Z313.

A handgun fired from the GK would not have used a FMJ, but rather an ordinary lead slug. Only lead was detected on the curb strike near Tague.

There was no handgun fired from the GK. If there had been, the shooter would have had a choice of lead bullets, FMJ bullets, and hollow points.

Maybe a handgun is the source of the Tague strike.

That's as dumb as anything you have ever written.

I have never read a compelling explanation of the Tague curb strike. LNT or CT.
[/quote]

I by compelling you mean provable, you never will. The cause of Tague's injury will remain a mystery. Unlike the bullets that hit JFK and JBC, we can never prove that.

[Benjamin Cole]

Typical bullets for handguns in 1963 were ordinary lead, especially for .38s.

Hollow points were rare to non-existent in 1963.

FMJ for more-powerful handguns did exist.

Only lead was detected on the curb strike near Tague.

Hard to see how FMJ's fired at the limo subsequently made a lead-only strike on the Tagee curb. I put very low odds, indeed vanishing, on that.

The second official investigation into the JFKA, the HSCA, concluded there had been a gunshot at the GK.

As a JFKA amateur-layman-hobbyist-buff, you are entitled to disagree.

Respectfully, I put more weight on the HSCA's findings than yours. That was a serious investigation, by a lot of smart and skeptical guys, many professionals. 

Reasonable JFKA speculation is that a handgun, fired on the GK, could have send a lead slug towards Tague and the nearby curb.

Does that explain the Tague shot? It is a reasonable explanation. No more, no less than that.

No, the LNT'ers and CT'ers cannot prove their views.