The First Shot

[Tom Graves]

The fact that you have to put several "ifs" into your scenario means that nothing you are saying is an established fact. It's simply your guesses.

The Robert Hughes film shows something white moving in the Sniper's Nest window as the limo turns onto Elm Street. Oswald was wearing a white t-shirt that day, so it's reasonable to assume that what we're seeing is Oswald getting ready to fire his first (missing everything) shot. 

IF Oswald fired it half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133 (as is indicated by the nearly simultaneous, rapid-but-non-startle head movements of everyone in the limo but Greer), the limo would have been at a sharp downward angle to him, and this sharp downward angle may have necessitated the short-rifle's muzzle's being inside the building when he fired it.

[John Corbett]

The Robert Hughes film shows something white moving in the Sniper's Nest window as the limo turns onto Elm Street. Oswald was wearing a white t-shirt that day, so it's reasonable to assume that what we're seeing is Oswald getting ready to fire his first (missing everything) shot. 

IF Oswald fired it half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133 (as is indicated by the nearly simultaneous, rapid-but-non-startle head movements of everyone in the limo but Greer), the limo would have been at a sharp downward angle to him, and this sharp downward angle may have necessitated the short-rifle's muzzle's being inside the building when he fired it.

I agree Oswald is moving in the window in the Hughes film. The image is too blurry to draw any conclusion as to how he is moving and it gives us no indication as to when he fired the first shot.

[Tom Graves]

I agree Oswald is moving in the window in the Hughes film. The image is too blurry to draw any conclusion as to how he is moving and it gives us no indication as to when he fired the first shot.

Why do you prefer, as an indication of when the first shot occurred, Zapruder's jiggling of his camera to Elsie Dorman's finger's slipping off the "filming now" button at approximately "Z-124" and around Z-222, too?

In 2008, Dale Myers wrote:

"Elsie Dorman told Sixth Floor Museum curator Gary Mack in the early 1980’s that she remembered that the first shot was very loud, sounded like it came from behind her (i.e., from inside the building), and that she stopped filming just after the first shot. Elsie Dorman, who died in 1983, had filmed the motorcade from a fourth-floor window of the Depository. [Max] Holland and [Kenneth] Scearce cite my work on the synchronization of amateur films of the Kennedy motorcade (Epipolar Geometric Analysis of Amateur Films Related to Acoustics Evidence in the John F. Kennedy Assassination) as supportive of their theory [that Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot was fired just before Zapruder resumed filming], noting that Dorman stopped her camera three times – first at a point 0.12 seconds before Zapruder began [sic; resumed] filming the limousine (i.e., Z133); a second time at the equivalent of Z228, just after the second shot; and a third and final time at the equivalent of Z411, about five seconds after the last shot."

[Jack Nessan]

Why do you prefer, as an indication of when the first shot occurred, Zapruder's jiggling of his camera to Elsie Dorman's finger's slipping off the "filming now" button at approximately "Z-124" and around Z-222, too?

In 2008, Dale Myers wrote:

"Elsie Dorman told Sixth Floor Museum curator Gary Mack in the early 1980’s that she remembered that the first shot was very loud, sounded like it came from behind her (i.e., from inside the building), and that she stopped filming just after the first shot. Elsie Dorman, who died in 1983, had filmed the motorcade from a fourth-floor window of the Depository. [Max] Holland and [Kenneth] Scearce cite my work on the synchronization of amateur films of the Kennedy motorcade (Epipolar Geometric Analysis of Amateur Films Related to Acoustics Evidence in the John F. Kennedy Assassination) as supportive of their theory [that Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot was fired just before Zapruder resumed filming], noting that Dorman stopped her camera three times – first at a point 0.12 seconds before Zapruder began [sic; resumed] filming the limousine (i.e., Z133); a second time at the equivalent of Z228, just after the second shot; and a third and final time at the equivalent of Z411, about five seconds after the last shot."

I don't get your comparison. Are there degrees of how wrong you two are? You are both wrong in a big way.

[John Corbett]

Why do you prefer, as an indication of when the first shot occurred, Zapruder's jiggling of his camera to Elsie Dorman's finger's slipping off the "filming now" button at approximately "Z-124" and around Z-222, too?

In 2008, Dale Myers wrote:

"Elsie Dorman told Sixth Floor Museum curator Gary Mack in the early 1980’s that she remembered that the first shot was very loud, sounded like it came from behind her (i.e., from inside the building), and that she stopped filming just after the first shot. Elsie Dorman, who died in 1983, had filmed the motorcade from a fourth-floor window of the Depository. [Max] Holland and [Kenneth] Scearce cite my work on the synchronization of amateur films of the Kennedy motorcade (Epipolar Geometric Analysis of Amateur Films Related to Acoustics Evidence in the John F. Kennedy Assassination) as supportive of their theory [that Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot was fired just before Zapruder resumed filming], noting that Dorman stopped her camera three times – first at a point 0.12 seconds before Zapruder began [sic; resumed] filming the limousine (i.e., Z133); a second time at the equivalent of Z228, just after the second shot; and a third and final time at the equivalent of Z411, about five seconds after the last shot."

The jiggle at Z155 is very similar to the jiggles at Z227 and Z318 which were in response to shots fired 7-8 frames earlier and which closely followed shots in which we know when they struck. While it is not proof positive, to me it creates the preponderance of evidence as to when the first shot was fired. The arguments for a shot fired before Zapruder resumed filming are quite thin compared to the arguments for a shot in the Z147-148 window.

[Tom Graves]

The jiggle at Z155 is very similar to the jiggles at Z227 and Z318 which were in response to shots fired 7-8 frames earlier and which closely followed shots in which we know when they struck. While it is not proof positive, to me it creates the preponderance of evidence as to when the first shot was fired. The arguments for a shot fired before Zapruder resumed filming are quite thin compared to the arguments for a shot in the Z147-148 window.

Disregarding the fact that JFK, Jackie, Connally, Nellie, and Kellerman all rapidly, but in a non-startle-kind-of-way, turned their heads between Z-140 and Z-150, at what point do you think Secret Service Agent George Hickey started leaning over to look at the pavement, at what point do you think Rosemary Willis started looking back towards the TSBD instead of at the limo, and at what point do you think Secret Service Agent Glen Bennett started leaning far to his right (in order to see around Ken O'Donnell) to see if JFK was okay?

[Andrew Mason]

Disregarding the fact that JFK, Jackie, Connally, Nellie, and Kellerman all rapidly, but in a non-startle-kind-of-way, turned their heads between Z-140 and Z-150, at what point do you think Secret Service Agent George Hickey started leaning over to look at the pavement, at what point do you think Rosemary Willis started looking back towards the TSBD instead of at the limo, and at what point do you think Secret Service Agent Glen Bennett started leaning far to his right (in order to see around Ken O'Donnell) to see if JFK was okay?

Rosemary Wills does one head turn toward the TSBD. Here it is: