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David Von Pein

Author Topic: The First Shot  (Read 528577 times)

Online John Corbett

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #1666 on: Yesterday at 04:21:03 PM »
I will never understand why so many people look at eye and ear witness accounts as if they are empirical evidence. Witness accounts, by themselves, do not establish anything as factual. Witnesses can be, and often are, wrong. Yet when somebody comes across a witness that fits their preferred narrative, they latch onto it as "proof" of what they choose to believe. They act as if "So and so said........" establishes a fact without ever offering any supporting evidence that indicates what so-and-so said is correct. It might be correct and it might very well be wrong. All eye and ear witness accounts should be looked at as a big MAYBE unless and until it can be corroborated. While multiple witnesses saying the same thing is a bit more compelling than a single witness, it still doesn't establish what they said is correct. Multiple people can make the same mistake. Case in point. A large group of witnesses said all the shots came from the direction of the GK and another large group of witnesses said the shots all came from the direction of the TSBD. Obviously, both groups cannot be right. There is a large group of witnesses who all said the same wrong thing. They all made the same mistake. So while multiple witnesses saying the same thing is a bit more compelling than a single witness, it still does not establish a fact. The only time I will point to an eye or ear witness as evidence is if that witness can be corroborated by forensic evidence.

Offline Michael Capasse

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #1667 on: Yesterday at 04:25:44 PM »
I will never understand why so many people look at eye and ear witness accounts as if they are empirical evidence. Witness accounts, by themselves, do not establish anything as factual. Witnesses can be, and often are, wrong. Yet when somebody comes across a witness that fits their preferred narrative, they latch onto it as "proof" of what they choose to believe. They act as if "So and so said........" establishes a fact without ever offering any supporting evidence that indicates what so-and-so said is correct. It might be correct and it might very well be wrong. All eye and ear witness accounts should be looked at as a big MAYBE unless and until it can be corroborated. While multiple witnesses saying the same thing is a bit more compelling than a single witness, it still doesn't establish what they said is correct. Multiple people can make the same mistake. Case in point. A large group of witnesses said all the shots came from the direction of the GK and another large group of witnesses said the shots all came from the direction of the TSBD. Obviously, both groups cannot be right. There is a large group of witnesses who all said the same wrong thing. They all made the same mistake. So while multiple witnesses saying the same thing is a bit more compelling than a single witness, it still does not establish a fact. The only time I will point to an eye or ear witness as evidence is if that witness can be corroborated by forensic evidence.

Same cherry picked BS: doesn't make it so.
Why do you even bother?

Online John Corbett

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #1668 on: Yesterday at 04:36:22 PM »
Same cherry picked BS: doesn't make it so.
Why do you even bother?

I do it for amusement only. I have no illusions that I might actually talk some sense into one of the CTs. Many years ago, I did see one CT change sides, and that was Dr. Bob Artwohl. I don't think I was the sole reason for his change of position but he did point some of the points I made as part of the reason he switched.

Online Andrew Mason

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #1669 on: Yesterday at 10:38:48 PM »
I will never understand why so many people look at eye and ear witness accounts as if they are empirical evidence.
Yes. You never will unless you actually work with witnesses.
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Witness accounts, by themselves, do not establish anything as factual.
That is partly correct when dealing with a few witnesses who may not be independent.  Without the opportunity of a party adverse in interest to cross-examine a witness it is difficult to assess a witness’ accuracy ;)

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Witnesses can be, and often are, wrong.
It depends on what you mean by “wrong”. There is a difference between seeing JFK move left after the first shot and “ducking” but a huge differnce between either of those and continuing to smile and wave for several seconds after the first shot.


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The only time I will point to an eye or ear witness as evidence is if that witness can be corroborated by forensic evidence.
Most major crimes and virtually all minor ones that result in convictions are solved using witness evidence.  If courts took that approach, there would be few convictions. 
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 10:39:52 PM by Andrew Mason »

Offline Jack Nessan

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #1670 on: Today at 03:22:01 AM »
Given the approximate nature of that kind of estimate and correlation to the zfilm it does not exclude the possibility of a shot fitting with Phil Willis’ evidence of a first shot just before z202.

No, DPD Baker is just another witness in a large group of witnesses confirming that there never was an early missed shot. The eyewitnesses correlate where the first shot occurred by relating the limousines position to where they were standing. Motorcade 63 relates the first shot to Westbrook/ Calvery statements placing it between Z204 and Z212. The Chisms, Jean Newman, and Mary Woodward also place it in the same time frame.

Online Tom Graves

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #1671 on: Today at 03:41:16 AM »
No, DPD Baker is just another witness in a large group of witnesses confirming that there never was an early missed shot. The eyewitnesses correlate where the first shot occurred by relating the limousines position to where they were standing. Motorcade 63 relates the first shot to Westbrook/ Calvery statements placing it between Z204 and Z212. The Chisms, Jean Newman, and Mary Woodward also place it in the same time frame.

"Confirming" my you-know-what.

Online Andrew Mason

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #1672 on: Today at 03:56:29 AM »
No, DPD Baker is just another witness in a large group of witnesses confirming that there never was an early missed shot. The eyewitnesses correlate where the first shot occurred by relating the limousines position to where they were standing. Motorcade 63 relates the first shot to Westbrook/ Calvery statements placing it between Z204 and Z212. The Chisms, Jean Newman, and Mary Woodward also place it in the same time frame.
Willis puts the first shot before z202.  You have to be careful in trying to use a witness to pinpoint a shot.  Calvery/Westbrook used the same language to describe the location - not of JFK but of the President’s car. They both said that the President’s car was almost directly in front of where they were standing.



(Westbrook: 22H679) Given the uncertainty of the word “almost” as well as the uncertainty of which part of the car would have to be directly in front of them for them to consider the car to be in front of them, it is not possible to use their testimony to pinpoint the position of JFK to within a range smaller than about a car length, which is 21 feet or 21 frames.

Willis did not pinpoint the shot but set a precise after-bracket for it that is made precise by his photo.
« Last Edit: Today at 04:02:12 AM by Andrew Mason »