The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

Well, you're half right about that.
If doesn't matter whether JFK moved or not. Oswald would have to re-aim the rifle because the recoil of the rifle would have taken the rifle off target. He would have had to reacquire his target in the scope and place the cross hairs on his intended target before squeezing off the subsequent shots. 2.3 seconds between shots is the theoretical minimum required for an aimed shot. In reality, Oswald would likely have taken more time. 4-5 seconds between shots seems quite reasonable.

So are you saying a missed aimed shot followed rapidly by a shot without further aiming also has to miss? Why?   Any scenario that happens is always improbable.  The evidence tells you whether it happened. The evidence says that JFK was struck by the first shot; that the last two shots were closer together and the head shot was the last shot. 

[Andrew Mason]

Andrew has painted himself in to a corner by fully committing to z312/313 as being the final shot of the three, clearly audible shots reported by over 160 witnesses.
JFK's reaction to being shot through the throat (and Brachial Plexus) is for his hands to fly upwards, towards his chin, at an incredible speed. It is clearly a neuromuscular/reflex reaction.
This indicates he was shot milliseconds before this movement.
The first reliable visible signs of this movement are seen in z225, so the shot passed through JFK only 2 or 3 Z-frames before this (z222/223).
The problem for Andrew is that there is a shade less than 5 seconds between z222/223 and z312/313.
He believes there was a significant gap between the first and second shots (and that the second and third shots were close together) - shot, pause, shot, shot.
This is impossible if you accept that the head shot was the last shot. There would be no time for a pause between the first two shots.

How does he overcome this problem?
By using the worst methodology possible.
He fixes the last shot at z312/313 then uses the time it takes to get off a shot with the MC (around 2.5 seconds ish) and calculates his way backwards from z312/313.
He then has his Z-frames (first shot z190, second shot z272, third shot z312/313)

After he has got his Z-frames he then, and only then, looks for evidence to support his calculations!!

Not quite.  I was just following the evidence and looking at the zfilm to see where the second shot fit.  The key is the shot pattern - the second being after the midpoint between 1 and 3. With a first shot just before z202 and the third at z312-313, the midpoint would have been around z256.  JBC starts laying back onto Nellie by z280. The shot had to be perceptible amount of time after the midpoint for so many people to recall the difference in spacing. So that pretty much leaves the high z260s to the mid z270s. That fits with the evidence of Altgens, Hickey, Greer, Gayle Newman, Powers.  Based on the change in JBC's motion (Nellie recalled that he recoiled from the shot) which starts at z271-272 and the change in position of the wrist/hat between those frames, supported by the movement of the left sunvisor between those two frames, that is where I put the second shot.  It may have been just before z271 or between z271 and z272. If it was just before z272 was exposed and the third shot was just before z313 was exposed, that puts the two shots 41 frames apart, which is 2.24 seconds apart.

He doesn't use the evidence to reach a conclusion.
He already has his conclusion and then cherry-picks evidence to support this conclusion.

It is a doomed method that led to a doomed theory.
However, this has not stopped him from constantly promoting this dead theory. It is his creation, after all.

I didn't have to cherry pick the shot spacing evidence or the evidence that JFK was struck by the first and third shots.  You have ignored the evidence that the last shot was the head shot and base your conclusion on the few witnesses who thought there may have been a shot after the head shot. That is not cherry-picking?

[John Corbett]

So are you saying a missed aimed shot followed rapidly by a shot without further aiming also has to miss? Why?   Any scenario that happens is always improbable. 

Your scenario is impossible.

The evidence tells you whether it happened. The evidence says that JFK was struck by the first shot; that the last two shots were closer together and the head shot was the last shot.

It's not the evidence that tells you JFK was struck by the first shot. That's the voices in your head telling you that.

[Andrew Mason]

Your scenario is impossible.

And a bullet looking anything like CE399 strikes a rib so hard it broke at the spine and felt like a sucker punch to the back, blasted out 10 cm of the rib farther along, then shattered the radius in five pieces before bending around the radius - not deflecting away from the point of contact and not going through it either - and entered the left thigh where it embeds a piece of lead in the femur - that is NOT impossible?  What is your test for impossibility?

It's not the evidence that tells you JFK was struck by the first shot. That's the voices in your head telling you that.

You are on to me now.  I fabricated all of the "evidence" from voices in my head and then made devilishly clever moves to plant my fabrications into the public record:

• T.E. Moore (24 H 534, "President KENNEDY had reached the Thornton Freeway
  sign, a shot was fired and Mr. MOORE observed the President slumping forward in
  the Presidential car.")
• Nellie Connally (4 H 147. "I turned over my right shoulder and looked back, and saw
  the President as he had both hands at his neck.")
• David Powers (7 H 473: "I noticed then that the President moved quite far to his left
  after the shot from the extreme right hand side where he had been sitting. There was a
  second shot and Governor Connally disappeared from sight and then there was a third
  shot which took off the top of the President’s head")
• Gayle Newman (19 H 488: "President Kennedy kind of jumped like he was startled
  and covered his head with his hands and then raised up. After I heard the first shot,
  another shot sounded and Governor grabbed his chest and lay back on the seat of the
  car")
• William Newman (19 H 490 "The President jumped up in his seat, and it looked like
  what I thought was a firecracker had went off and I thought he had realized it.")
• John Chism (19 H 472 “When I saw the motorcade round the corner, the President
  was standing and waving to the crowd. And just as he got just about in front of me, he
  turned and waved at the crowd on this side of the street, the right side; at this point I
  heard what sounded like one shot, and I saw him, "The President," sit back in his seat
  and lean his head to his left side.”
• Faye Chism (19 H 471 “As the President was coming through, I heard this first shot,
  and the President fell to his left.”)
• James Altgens (7 H 520. He said his z255 shot was after first shot and before any
  other. It shows JFK reacting.)
• George Hickey (CE1024, 18 H 761. Perhaps 2 or 3 seconds elapsed from the time I
  looked to the rear and then looked at the President. He was slumped forward and to
  his left, and was straightening up to an almost erect sitting position as I turned and
  looked. At the moment he was almost sitting erect I heard two reports which I thought
  were shots and that appeared to me completely different in sound than the first report
  and were in such rapid succession that there seemed to be practically no time element
  between them.”)
• Sam Kinney (CE1024, 18 H 731. “As we completed the left turn and on a short
  distance, there was a shot. At this time I glanced from the tailights of the President's
  car that I use for gaging distances for driving. I saw the President lean toward the left
  and appeared to have grabbed his chest with right hand. There was a second of pause
  and then two more shots were heard”).
• Paul Landis (CE1024, 18 H 758. Saw JFK move in response to first shot but thought
  he was just turning in the direction of the sound. Landis began to scan crowd,
  buildings and car before second shot was heard. He recalled only two shots.)
• Cecil Ault (24 H 534. Viewing from court house on Houston. Reported to have seen
  JFK rise up in his seat after first shot.)
• Harold Norman (3 H 191. “but I know I heard a shot, and then after I heard the shot,
  well, it seems as though the President, you know, slumped or something,”)
• Malcolm Summers (Affidavit, 19 H 500 “The President's car had just come up in
  front of me when I heard a shot and saw the President slump down in the car and
  heard Mrs. Kennedy say, "Oh, no", then a second shot and then I hit the ground as I
  realized these were shots.”)
• Mary Moorman (Affidavit, 19 H 487, “As I snapped the picture of President
  Kennedy, I heard a shot ring out. President Kennedy kind of slumped over.”
• Jean Newman (Affidavit, 19 H 489, “The motorcade had just passed me when I heard
  that I thought was a firecracker at first, and the President had just passed me, because
  after he had just passed, there was a loud report, it just scared me, and I noticed that
  the President jumped, he sort of ducked his head down and I thought at the time that it
  probably scared him, too, just like it did me, because he flinched, like he jumped. I
  saw him put his elbows like this, with his hands on his chest.”)
• Charles Brehm (Dallas Times Herald statement, Nov. 22, 1963 “The witness Brehm
  was shaking uncontrollably as he further described the shooting. ‘The first shot must
  not have been too solid, because he just slumped’.”)
• Pierce Allman, (WFAA radio interview, in which he statyes that he thought “the
  President was ducking from the first shot”)

But as if that was not enough, I scrounged around and persuaded Ernest Brandt and his friend John Templin to come forward and provide additional lies that JFK reacted visibly to the first shot.

[John Corbett]

And a bullet looking anything like CE399 strikes a rib so hard it broke at the spine and felt like a sucker punch to the back, blasted out 10 cm of the rib farther along, then shattered the radius in five pieces before bending around the radius - not deflecting away from the point of contact and not going through it either - and entered the left thigh where it embeds a piece of lead in the femur - that is NOT impossible?  What is your test for impossibility?
You are on to me now.  I fabricated all of the "evidence" from voices in my head and then made devilishly clever moves to plant my fabrications into the public record:

• T.E. Moore (24 H 534, "President KENNEDY had reached the Thornton Freeway
  sign, a shot was fired and Mr. MOORE observed the President slumping forward in
  the Presidential car.")
• Nellie Connally (4 H 147. "I turned over my right shoulder and looked back, and saw
  the President as he had both hands at his neck.")
• David Powers (7 H 473: "I noticed then that the President moved quite far to his left
  after the shot from the extreme right hand side where he had been sitting. There was a
  second shot and Governor Connally disappeared from sight and then there was a third
  shot which took off the top of the President’s head")
• Gayle Newman (19 H 488: "President Kennedy kind of jumped like he was startled
  and covered his head with his hands and then raised up. After I heard the first shot,
  another shot sounded and Governor grabbed his chest and lay back on the seat of the
  car")
• William Newman (19 H 490 "The President jumped up in his seat, and it looked like
  what I thought was a firecracker had went off and I thought he had realized it.")
• John Chism (19 H 472 “When I saw the motorcade round the corner, the President
  was standing and waving to the crowd. And just as he got just about in front of me, he
  turned and waved at the crowd on this side of the street, the right side; at this point I
  heard what sounded like one shot, and I saw him, "The President," sit back in his seat
  and lean his head to his left side.”
• Faye Chism (19 H 471 “As the President was coming through, I heard this first shot,
  and the President fell to his left.”)
• James Altgens (7 H 520. He said his z255 shot was after first shot and before any
  other. It shows JFK reacting.)
• George Hickey (CE1024, 18 H 761. Perhaps 2 or 3 seconds elapsed from the time I
  looked to the rear and then looked at the President. He was slumped forward and to
  his left, and was straightening up to an almost erect sitting position as I turned and
  looked. At the moment he was almost sitting erect I heard two reports which I thought
  were shots and that appeared to me completely different in sound than the first report
  and were in such rapid succession that there seemed to be practically no time element
  between them.”)
• Sam Kinney (CE1024, 18 H 731. “As we completed the left turn and on a short
  distance, there was a shot. At this time I glanced from the tailights of the President's
  car that I use for gaging distances for driving. I saw the President lean toward the left
  and appeared to have grabbed his chest with right hand. There was a second of pause
  and then two more shots were heard”).
• Paul Landis (CE1024, 18 H 758. Saw JFK move in response to first shot but thought
  he was just turning in the direction of the sound. Landis began to scan crowd,
  buildings and car before second shot was heard. He recalled only two shots.)
• Cecil Ault (24 H 534. Viewing from court house on Houston. Reported to have seen
  JFK rise up in his seat after first shot.)
• Harold Norman (3 H 191. “but I know I heard a shot, and then after I heard the shot,
  well, it seems as though the President, you know, slumped or something,”)
• Malcolm Summers (Affidavit, 19 H 500 “The President's car had just come up in
  front of me when I heard a shot and saw the President slump down in the car and
  heard Mrs. Kennedy say, "Oh, no", then a second shot and then I hit the ground as I
  realized these were shots.”)
• Mary Moorman (Affidavit, 19 H 487, “As I snapped the picture of President
  Kennedy, I heard a shot ring out. President Kennedy kind of slumped over.”
• Jean Newman (Affidavit, 19 H 489, “The motorcade had just passed me when I heard
  that I thought was a firecracker at first, and the President had just passed me, because
  after he had just passed, there was a loud report, it just scared me, and I noticed that
  the President jumped, he sort of ducked his head down and I thought at the time that it
  probably scared him, too, just like it did me, because he flinched, like he jumped. I
  saw him put his elbows like this, with his hands on his chest.”)
• Charles Brehm (Dallas Times Herald statement, Nov. 22, 1963 “The witness Brehm
  was shaking uncontrollably as he further described the shooting. ‘The first shot must
  not have been too solid, because he just slumped’.”)
• Pierce Allman, (WFAA radio interview, in which he statyes that he thought “the
  President was ducking from the first shot”)

But as if that was not enough, I scrounged around and persuaded Ernest Brandt and his friend John Templin to come forward and provide additional lies that JFK reacted visibly to the first shot.

Your problem is you don't have a clue as to how to weigh evidence. Your continued blind faith in eyewitness accounts demonstrates that. You think because a witness tells you something, it becomes an established fact. I didn't count them but it looks like you just cited about 20 witnesses and you present their accounts as if they are empirical evidence. You have no idea how to corroborate what witnesses have said. You just believe any witness who tells a story that conforms with your pet theory which is a pretty good indication that the witness got something wrong because your scenario makes no sense. Witnesses are fallible and one fallible witness isn't much corroboration for another fallible witness. You've never understood that and you likely never will. You are too wedded to a ridiculous scenario you dreamed up about two decades ago.

Let's put it this way. If you are right, everyone who has ever studied the JFKA is wrong because I've never come across anyone who has ever argued for what you believe happened. Maybe you should create a sock puppet so you would have someone who agrees with you.

[Andrew Mason]

Your problem is you don't have a clue as to how to weigh evidence.

Let’s see. On the left side of the scale we put 20 witnesses (there are at least four more including Zapruder, Clint Hill, Bobby Hargis, and Linda Willis) with different vantage points all saying JFK reacted to the first shot. On the right side we put Glen Bennett (his second statement, not his notes) and
your feelings about what you think you are seeing in the zfilm. Hmm. Which way would the scale tilt?

Your continued blind faith in eyewitness accounts demonstrates that. You think because a witness tells you something, it becomes an established fact.

Drawing conclusions from 20 witnesses all saying the same thing is not blind faith.  Blind faith is your belief that your interpretation of the silent zfilm is more likely correct than 20 independent recollections.  Can you point to a single event in history where 20 independent reports of a simple observable fact got it wrong and zero reported it correctly?

By the way, if you think that an independent witness cannot corroborate another witness, you are wrong. You should also review your high school lessons on probability and statistics.

[John Corbett]

Let’s see. On the left side of the scale we put 20 witnesses (there are at least four more including Zapruder, Clint Hill, Bobby Hargis, and Linda Willis) with different vantage points all saying JFK reacted to the first shot. On the right side we put Glen Bennett (his second statement, not his notes) and
your feelings about what you think you are seeing in the zfilm. Hmm. Which way would the scale tilt?
Drawing conclusions from 20 witnesses all saying the same thing is not blind faith.  Blind faith is your belief that your interpretation of the silent zfilm is more likely correct than 20 independent recollections.  Can you point to a single event in history where 20 independent reports of a simple observable fact got it wrong and zero reported it correctly?

By the way, if you think that an independent witness cannot corroborate another witness, you are wrong. You should also review your high school lessons on probability and statistics.

Herein is your problem. You put all your faith in fallible witnesses and reject what the Z-film tells you unmistakably. The Z-film is more reliable than 20 witnesses because it has perfect recall.

We don't have to look to other events to find more than 20 witnesses getting something wrong. More than 20 witnesses said all the shots came from the GK. More than 20 witnesses said all the shots came from the direction of the TSBD. They can't both be right. So there's your example of more than 20 witnesses getting a pertinent fact wrong.