The First Shot

[Tom Graves]

[...]

Dear Jarrett "Useful Idiot" Smith,

If you chose not to notice the quick, nearly simultaneous, head movements of JFK, Jackie, JBC, Nellie, Roy Kellerman, George Hickey, and Rosemary Willis between Zapruder frames 140 and 150, I totally understand.

-- Tom

[Jarrett Smith]

Dear Jarrett "Useful Idiot" Smith,

If you chose not to notice the quick, nearly simultaneous, head movements of JFK, Jackie, JBC, Nellie, Roy Kellerman, George Hickey, and Rosemary Willis between Zapruder frames 140 and 150, I totally understand.

-- Tom

Comrade Graves,

It's been proven your theory is BS.

[Tom Graves]

Comrade Graves,

It's been proven your theory is BS.

Dear Jarrett "Useful Idiot" Smith,

I totally sympathize with you and understand where you're coming from.

After all, I, too, was once a tinfoil-hat JFKA conspiracy theorist.

-- Tom

[Michael T. Griffith]

In Altgens 6 we see Agents Landis, Ready and Hickey looking over their right shoulders towards the TSBD, presumably in response to the sound of gunfire:

Landis - "I heard what sounded like the report of a high-powered rifle from behind me, over my right shoulder...", "My first glance was at the President, as I was practically looking in his direction anyway...", "I immediately returned my gaze, over my right shoulder."

Ready - "I heard what appeared to be fire crackers going off from my position. I immediately turned to my right rear trying to locate the source but was not able to determine the exact location."

Hickey - "I heard what seemed to me that a firecracker exploded to the right and rear. I stood partially up and turned to the rear to see if I could observe anything. "

Each agent describes their immediate reactions to hearing the first shot, turning to look over their right shoulders looking towards where they felt the sound came from. This is exactly what we see in Altgens 6. However, when we take a closer look at Zapruder we see no meaningful reaction from them (Hickey looks briefly over the side of the car but then returns to his original position). The partial footage of the Z-film below focuses on the follow-up car. It runs from z133 to z207. At no point do we see any meaningful reaction from the agents mentioned above:

A first shot in the z130's or z160's is ruled out by this evidence.

Even a shot around z190 seems unlikely.

This is yet another sad example of lone-gunman theorists posting claims that are decades behind the information curve. The HSCA's photographic experts determined back in 1978 from reactions in the Zapruder film, a blur analysis of the Zapruder film, and Willis Slide 5 that JFK was first hit at or before Z190:

At approximately Zapruder frame 200 Kennedy's movements suddenly freeze his right hand abruptly stops in the midst of a waving motion and his head moves rapidly from right to his left in the direction of his wife. Based on these movements it appears that by the time the President goes behind the sign at frame 207 he is evidencing some kind of reaction to a severe external stimulus. By the time he emerges from behind the sign at Zapruder frame 225 the President makes a clutching motion with his hands toward his neck indicating clearly that he has been shot. (6 HSCA 17)

Dr. William Hartmann, one of the HSCA's photographic experts, explained more of the evidence that JFK was hit at or before Z190, including the fact that Willis Slide 5 corroborates this timing, and explained why the committee's experts rejected the WC's assertion that JFK was first hit at Z210:

Dr. HARTMANN. Yes, they [the WC] picked 210. I would say that to pick 210 in the face of this current evidence, to pick 210 as the time for that first shot, which is the Warren Commission's conclusion, would not be warranted from this evidence, because the blur before frame 210, from 190 to 200, is clearly much larger than any blur after frame 210. In fact, there is really very little evidence for a blur in the appropriate amount of time after frame 210.

Furthermore, there is some photo evidence that tends to support the thought of a shot in the time frame shortly before 190. For example, there is the Phillip Willis photograph which shows Mr. Zapruder in the background and the motorcade passing in between. Because the motorcade is in between, it is quite possible, quite easy, to determine exactly which Zapruder frame that corresponds to, because you can tell which part of the motorcade is passing between Zapruder and Willis. And Willis said that he took that photograph as a reaction. He pressed the shutter as a reaction to what he perceived as the first shot, at least a shot.

Well, it turns out that that frame is 202. So that means that Mr. Willis is telling us that he pressed the shutter as part of his reaction to a shot, and he was reacting at frame 202, while here we see that Mr. Zapruder is in the middle of his reaction at frame 202. So that is very nice consistent evidence that something happened, say, at 190 or shortly before 190. (2 HSCA 15)

Don Olson (a professor of physics) and Ralph Turner (a professor of criminal justice) reached a similar conclusion in 1971, in a paper titled “Photographic Evidence and the Assassination of President John F. Kennedy,” published in the Journal of Forensic Sciences in October 1971. Excerpt:

First, a general trend in the frames 194 to 206 may be noted. Beginning as early as frame 194, the President's body seems to undergo a motion forward and to the left. This motion, which can be visually approximated to be on the order of six or seven inches, seems to begin in frame 194 and continues through about frame 200. The President seems to move away from the seat back and tilt to the left, away from the window ledge. . . .

On the interval 194-200 the President's body is seen to narrow somewhat to the view, indicating that he not only leans to the left front, but also is rotated to the left. The rotation of the shoulders begins as early as frame 195. His head comes around at 200-202. By frame 204 the President is facing almost directly forward.

As the President moves and rotates to the left, his right arm is pulled back into the car. While his elbow has been resting outside the car, it comes up noticeably at frame 195. The President’s elbow can be seen to cross the chrome strip on the side of the car at frames 198-199. As President Kennedy disappears from view behind the sign, his right arm seems to be in a particularly unusual position—the clearly visible gray of his suit coat indicating that his right arm and elbow have been raised at least to the level of his chin. (pp. 410-411)

But lone-gunman theorists can't acknowledge that the Zapruder film shows that JFK was hit at/before Z190 because their alleged lone gunman's view of JFK would have been obstructed by the oak tree from Z166-210, because the supposed Connally "lapel flip" does not occur until Z224, and because Connally shows no obvious pain reactions until Z237.

Of course, Connally himself told the WC that he was not hit before Z231, and after studying high-quality prints of the Zapruder frames under magnification, he told Life magazine that he was certain beyond any doubt that he was not hit before Z229. But lone-gunman theorists lamely dismiss Connally's conclusions about when he was hit as "mistaken," never mind that he was the guy who actually experienced the shooting.

[Andrew Mason]

Dear Jarrett "Useful Idiot" Smith,

If you chose not to notice the quick, nearly simultaneous, head movements of JFK, Jackie, JBC, Nellie, Roy Kellerman, George Hickey, and Rosemary Willis between Zapruder frames 140 and 150, I totally understand.

-- Tom

Again, you are imagining JFK or Rosemary Willis moving their heads in that time frame.

But even if they did, why not compare that to other short intervals throughout the motorcade? Here is less than a second (16 frames) from Powers' film much earlier in the motorcade.  Jackie and JFK move in different directions at about the same time.  Was that a startle reaction or just normal behaviour? 

[Andrew Mason]

This is yet another sad example of lone-gunman theorists posting claims that are decades behind the information curve. The HSCA's photographic experts determined back in 1978 from reactions in the Zapruder film, a blur analysis of the Zapruder film, and Willis Slide 5 that JFK was first hit at or before Z190:

The blur analysis is hardly conclusive as there are a number of underlying assumptions as to the cause of the blur.   The problem is that there are areas where there is blur but it cannot be attributed to a shot.  I agree, however, that the first shot sound is likely to cause a startle response but subsequent shots less so, although seeing the effects of z313 might have also caused an involuntary movement of Zapruder's hands/body.  z190-200 is definitely the period with the most pronounced blur.

So the best we can say is that the degree of film blur at z190 and z312-313 is consistent with other evidence that there were shots at that time.  Other evidence that tells you when shots occurred eg. Betzner taking his z186 photo and just about to wind his camera to quickly take another when the first shot sounded; occupants of VP car said they had just completed the turn (not quite finished turn at z180); Mary Woodward - horrible ear-shattering noise as JFK passed by and turned forward; Phil Willis - an instant before z202;

But z190-200 also marks the position of JFK when he had just passed the lamppost on the north side of Elm St. and would have been opposite Mary Woodward, just before passing the Thornton Freeway sign.  This is where he emerged from under the branches of the oak tree that were between the SN and JFK:

[Tom Graves]

Again, you are imagining JFK or Rosemary Willis moving their heads in that time frame.

But even if they did, why not compare that to other short intervals throughout the motorcade? Here is less than a second (16 frames) from Powers' film much earlier in the motorcade. Jackie and JFK move in different directions at about the same time. Was that a startle reaction or just normal behaviour? 

Andrew Mason posted (paraphrased):

"Earlier during the motorcade in the Powers film, Jackie and JFK moved in different directions within a second of each other. Was that a startle reaction, or just normal behaviour?"


Dear Andrew,

I said nothing about "startle reactions."

I was talking about conscious reactions.

Conscious reactions follow "startle reactions."

When two people in close proximity to each other consciously move their heads in opposite directions within a second of each other (wowie zowie!), it doesn't necessarily mean that they're doing so in response to the same stimulus.

It is suggested, however, when more than two people consciously and quickly do it within half-a-second of each other. 

In this case, in addition to JFK and Jackie, three passengers in the limousine consciously and quicky moved their heads within half-a-second of each other.

At least two other witnesses to the sounds of the first, missing-everything, shot who weren't in the limo but who can be seen clearly in the Zapruder film -- Secret Service Agent George Hickey and "running girl," Rosemary Willis -- consciously moved their heads quickly within that half-second, as well.

That's seven prime witnesses who consciously and quickly moved their heads to the sounds of the first, missing-everything, shot.

It's logical to assume that the shot they consciously and quickly reacted to within half-a-second of each other (between Z-140 and Z-150) was about a second before they started consciously reacting to it (and after, of course, their invisible-to-us "startle reactions" to the sounds of said missing-everything shot).

-- Tom

[Andrew Mason]

Andrew Mason posted (paraphrased):

"Earlier during the motorcade in the Powers film, Jackie and JFK moved in different directions within a second of each other. Was that a startle reaction, or just normal behaviour?"

Dear Andrew,

I said nothing about "startle reactions."

I was talking about conscious reactions.

Conscious reactions follow "startle reactions."

My point was: How do you know that they are reactions to anything?  We see voluntary actions taken all the time as normal activities during a motorcade. 

When two people in close proximity to each other consciously move their heads in opposite directions within a second of each other (wowie zowie!), it doesn't necessarily mean that they're doing so in response to the same stimulus.

It is suggested, however, when more than two people consciously and quickly do it within half-a-second of each other. 

Fair enough. If several people make similar actions within half a second of each other, there may be something driving that.  Or there may not. One would have to assess how improbable that could happen by chance.

First of all, you are selecting people based on the fact that they moved their heads.  But there are many people who could be moving their heads but didn't.  In the President's car and follow up car there were 17 people (six + 11 in the follow-up car). Let's assume the driver in each is not going to move their head voluntarily.  So that is 15 people who could be acting or reacting.  You find 5 out of those 15 who act within a half second.  But you are choosing them based on the fact that they did move!

And then you have to factor in the chance of any two people will NOT move their heads within that half second.  Let's suppose that all 15 people had been moving their heads from left to right or right to left every 5 seconds, on average, and each move took 1 second.  Then for each person head turns that start, continue or finish during that half second would be included. That covers 2.5 seconds, so the probability of another person making a voluntary move within that 1/2 second is about .5. 

The probability that 5 people out of 15 possible persons simply moved their head within that 1/2 second is 1-the probability that 11 of them would NOT move their heads during that 1/2 second interval. 

We can work that out:
1.  The number of ways that 11 people out of 15 would not move their heads within that 2.5 second period multiplied by .5^11  is:the number of ways to select 11 people out of 15 without regard to order, or C(15, 11)=15!/11!4!=15x14x13x12/(4x3x2x1)=15x7x13=1365
2. the probability that all persons in a group of 11 people would not move their heads is the probability that each does not turn their head within that half second window: .5^11=.00049
3. Therefore the probability that 11 people out of 15 could be found that don't move their heads is .00049 multiplied by the number of ways to select 11 from 15.  That probability is 1365x.00049= .6665
4. Therefore the probability that you will not find at least 11 not moving their heads (ie. at least 5 people in 15 moving their heads) is 1-.6665 =.3335

So there is a 1 in 3 chance that 5 people will move their heads within half a second of each other.

It is a bit complicated and I may have over-simplified it but you get the idea why this may not be that improbable.

In this case, in addition to JFK and Jackie, three passengers in the limousine consciously and quicky moved their heads within half-a-second of each other.

You seem to think Rosemary Willis, JFK, Jackie, Nellie and Kellerman are moving their heads between 140-150.  I don't see that at all. You imagine things that are not visible in the zfilm. Rosemary does not move her head at all, for sure.  If you disagree, show us where they move their heads here: