The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

The Connally’s accounts of the three shots differ substantially. The following is from Wikipedia, the numbered references link to their Warren Commission testimonies (if you go to the Wikipedia article).

You should consider Gov. Connally's other statements.  He made a statement to Life Magazine in 1966 that he said 'Oh no, no, no' before he was hit in the back by the second shot.  He told the HSCA that he said it just before but then changed his mind and said it was after he was hit:
"When I was hit, or shortly before I was hit-no, I guess it was
after I was hit-I said first, just almost in despair, I said, "no, no,
no," just thinking how tragic it was that we had gone through this
24 hours, it had all been so wonderful and so beautifully executed."

This latter statement is interesting because the governor did not say "no, no, no" because he was hit.  He said it because he feared that a beautiful reception for the President in his state was turning into a tragedy.

In my opinion, the key is the timing of JBC yelling “Oh, no, no, no.” He is the one who yelled it so I believe that I have to give his testimony more weight (than Mrs. Connally’s testimony) regarding the timing of this yell. He specifically says that he yelled it immediately after he was hit.

In the quote you have provide from his WC testimony Gov. Connally said he said it "as I was hit", not after. 

A look at the Zapruder frames shows him appearing to start yelling this by about Z236 (possibly before that but definitely discernible by then). Z236 is only 7/10 of a second Z223 at a rate of 18.3 frames per second. That is a reasonable time for a reaction to being shot, (first realizing it, and then beginning to yell). And it is understandable that JBC would consider this 7/10 of a second as being immediately.

JBC and his wife rejected the SBT (apparently based on her memory regarding the second shot timing). But it seems clear to me that his testimony is the correct one due to the above and the other persuasive evidence cited by the WC and HSCA investigations.

The big problem with this is the significant preponderance of evidence that the last two shots were close together.  Listen to Sam Kinney, for example:

Why would so many witnesses - 47 by my count - think that?  5 seconds seemed like 2 seconds?

[Pat Speer]

Mrs. Woodward passed away 2017. Since you're referring to the Z220s, she noticed the President slump at that moment, which by her reckoning means the second shot. The first shot, she said, did not strike the President.

Now go back to cherry-picking pictures of the President leaning away from the car rail.

I'm sorry, Jerry, I need to disagree with you on this one. Miss Woodward used the word "slump" in relation to the second shot, which leads many to believe she was describing Kennedy's reaction in the 220's. But it's clear she was not. She said the first shot rang out a second or two after the car passed her, and that the last two shots were bang-bang. It's clear then that there was no 5 second gap between shots two and three, and that the "slump" she observed was Kennedy getting knocked down in the car at Z-313.

(11-23-63 newspaper article Witness From the News Describes Assassination written by Woodward for the Dallas Morning News) "As it turned out, we were almost certainly the last faces he noticed in the crowd. After acknowledging our cheers, he faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-shattering noise coming from behind us and a little to the right. My first reaction, and also my friends’, was that as a joke, someone had backfired their car. Apparently the driver and occupants of the President’s car had the same impression, because instead of speeding up, the car came almost to a halt. Things are a little hazy from this point, but I don’t believe anyone was hit with the first bullet. The President and Mrs. Kennedy turned and looked around, as if they, too, didn’t believe the noise was really coming from a gun. Then after a moment’s pause there was another shot and I saw the President start slumping in the car. This was followed rapidly by another shot. Mrs. Kennedy stood up in the car, turned half-way around, then fell on top of her husband’s body. Not until this minute did it sink in what actually was happening. We had witnessed the assassination of the President.
 
(12-7-63 FBI report, 24H520)  “She stated she was watching President and Mrs. Kennedy closely, and all of her group cheered loudly as they went by. Just as President and Mrs. Kennedy went by, they turned and waved at them. Just a second or two later, she heard a loud noise. At this point, it appeared to her that President and Mrs. Kennedy probably were about one hundred feet from her. There seemed to be a pause of a few seconds, and then there were two more loud noises which she suddenly realized were shots , and she saw President Kennedy fall over and Mrs. Kennedy jumped up and started crawling over the back of the car.

(March-May 1964 memo written for the Dallas Morning News, published in JFK Assassination: The Reporters' Notes, 2013) "The car proceeded down Elm and when it was about 40 yards from us, we heard the first noise. My immediate reaction was that someone had backfired a car deliberately--a pretty poor excuse for a joke. Ann said no--it was firecrackers. Before we could say anything more, the sound repeated itself twice in rapid succession. I saw the bystanders fall to the ground, saw the President slump, heard Mrs. Kennedy's anguished cry and saw her crawl out of the car and drag the Secret Service man in before the car sped away from view."

(Interview in The Men Who Killed Kennedy, broadcast 1988) “One thing I am totally positive about in my own mind is how many shots there were. And there were three shots. The second two shots were immediate. It was almost as if one were an echo of the other. They came so quickly the sound of one did not cease until the second shot. With the second and third shot I did see the president being hit.  I literally saw his head explode. So, I felt that the shots had come, as I wrote in my article, from behind me and to my right, which would have been the direction of the grassy knoll, and the railroad overpass."

(11-22-92 interview with Walt Brown as presented in Treachery in Dallas, 1995) "I had the distinct pleasure of having dinner with Mary Woodward (now married and living far from Dallas) on November 22, 1992...I asked Mary about the shots, based on what I knew about her deposition, and she seemed to be far more certain over dinner than her elliptically reported words in the FBI report indicated. The cadence she gave for the shot sequence put the last two almost simultaneous.."

(11-21-93 Reporters Remember conference, as quoted in Reporting the Kennedy Assassination). "I yelled and I said 'Please look this way!' And they looked right at us, waved, and at that moment, I heard a very loud noise. And I wasn't sure what it was at that point, and I turned to my friends and asked 'what was that; is some jerk shooting off firecrackers?' And, uh, then I heard the second one, and this time I knew what had happened, because I saw the president's motion, and then the third shot came very, very quickly, on top of the second one. And that time, I saw his head blow open, and I very well knew what had happened by that point."

(11-16-13 article in the Dallas Morning News) "I reported then and still believe without the slightest equivocation that: The first shot missed completely. There was a noticeable time lapse between the first and second shot. The car slowed almost to a stop after the first shot. The second shot hit the target but was possibly not fatal. The third shot pierced the brain and was almost certainly fatal."

(11-22-13 article on Mary Woodward Pillsworth in The Herkimer NY Evening Telegram) (On the shooting itself) “At first we didn’t know what it was, if it was a car backfiring,” she said. “…Then there was the second shot and then the third. Then I saw [Kennedy’s] head just break open.” According to Pillsworth, she’s officially considered the fifth closest witness to the assassination. “We stood around for a few minutes, kind of dazed,” she said of the moments that followed."

(11-7-15 Living History interview with The Sixth Floor Museum) "They turned the corner...I yelled out 'Please look this way' because I wanted to see Jackie Kennedy. And they did look at us and waved...There was one shot. And I have always believed it didn't hit anybody and I think a lot of researchers have shown I am probably right on this. Because I couldn't see anything happen and I couldn't figure out what it was...But then the next two shots came very very rapidly. The sound of one didn't kind of fade away before the second shot came. And that's when--the second shot--I saw really what happened. (When asked if she felt sure the second two shots were almost right on top of each other) "Yes." (When asked her impression of the head wound) "I just remember the head blowing open and that's why I said 'he's not alive--he can't be alive.'" 

[Andrew Mason]

Kennedy is leaning to camera-right and Connally is leaning to camera-left. Almost like they're in front of each other (for a brief instance).

I guess I assume my models are reasonably accurate, though I'm a novice compared to a professional. Where the photo-matches end up is governed by what will be. Given the yahoos in the US, I would be just as happy to disprove the SBT and find a conspiracy. But proving your Theory is coming up dry.

Why would you find a conspiracy?  There was no conspiracy. The SBT is only needed to preserve the single shooter conclusion if JBC was hit by the second shot less than 2.3 seconds after the first. But the shot pattern shows that this was not the case. 

The shot pattern evidence that the shot sequence was 1..........2.......3 is perfectly consistent with Oswald firing all three shots.

In fact, it makes a lot more sense: no shot that missed the entire car at 50 yards; the first aimed shot at reasonably close range as the passed below, followed by a careful re-aim for the second as the car proceeded down the road and the third shot following quickly without the need to re-aim as the car was moving directly away from the shooter.

Also, with 3 shots, 3 hits, there is no need to imagine a shot well before points at which witnesses said the first shot occurred; no need to imagine that witnesses were hallucinating when they said the last two shots were closer together; and no need to contort bodies to make the right to left path through JFK's midline meet JBC on his far right side.

Those 3D figure models weren't actually modeled from Connally's body. The seatback was cushioned and I wouldn't be surprised if it had a bit of give to it. You seem hung up on the jumpseat locations, but it's the positions of the (mostly) head and shoulders we see in the photos that determine where they are in the model. Would be nice if I got the jump-seats perfect but my ruler and I haven't flown down to the Henry Ford.

To the spine I get 27". I must be doing something wrong.

If JBC is turned as he is in z193, his spine has to be farther forward than the back of the jump seat.  He is turned about 60 degrees and his right shoulder is not pressed against the jump seat back, so I would say that is spine must be 6 inches at least in front of the jump seat back surface.  So the question is how far is JFK's throat from the seat back surface of the jump seat.  I measure that to be 27 inches using the scale drawing.

[Pat Speer]

You should consider Gov. Connally's other statements.  He made a statement to Life Magazine in 1966 that he said 'Oh no, no, no' before he was hit in the back by the second shot.  He told the HSCA that he said it just before but then changed his mind and said it was after he was hit:
"When I was hit, or shortly before I was hit-no, I guess it was
after I was hit-I said first, just almost in despair, I said, "no, no,
no," just thinking how tragic it was that we had gone through this
24 hours, it had all been so wonderful and so beautifully executed."

This latter statement is interesting because the governor did not say "no, no, no" because he was hit.  He said it because he feared that a beautiful reception for the President in his state was turning into a tragedy.
In the quote you have provide from his WC testimony Gov. Connally said he said it "as I was hit", not after.  The big problem with this is the significant preponderance of evidence that the last two shots were close together.  Listen to Sam Kinney, for example:

Why would so many witnesses - 47 by my count - think that?  5 seconds seemed like 2 seconds?

FWIW, Andrew, I did quite a bit of reading on this very issue, and the fact is that a witness' sense of time almost always slows down considerably during a traumatic event.The expectation would be, then, that if the last two shots were in fact 5 seconds apart, that many of the witnesses would say they were 10 seconds apart, not one or two seconds apart.

That so many witnesses heard the last two shots bang-bang, then, strongly suggests that there was but one shot at this time, and that they heard echoes, or, much more disturbingly, that there were indeed two shots at this time, fired too closely together to have been fired by a bolt-action rifle.

One should note, moreover, that the first police report on the suspected sniper said he may be carrying a Winchester rifle. This was undoubtedly a reference to a popular TV show at the time, The Rifleman, in which the main character famously fired a Winchester lever-action rifle, which fired roughly twice a second, around 5 times as fast as the rifle found in the building.

[Charles Collins]

You should consider Gov. Connally's other statements.  He made a statement to Life Magazine in 1966 that he said 'Oh no, no, no' before he was hit in the back by the second shot.  He told the HSCA that he said it just before but then changed his mind and said it was after he was hit:
"When I was hit, or shortly before I was hit-no, I guess it was
after I was hit-I said first, just almost in despair, I said, "no, no,
no," just thinking how tragic it was that we had gone through this
24 hours, it had all been so wonderful and so beautifully executed."

This latter statement is interesting because the governor did not say "no, no, no" because he was hit.  He said it because he feared that a beautiful reception for the President in his state was turning into a tragedy.
In the quote you have provide from his WC testimony Gov. Connally said he said it "as I was hit", not after.  The big problem with this is the significant preponderance of evidence that the last two shots were close together.  Listen to Sam Kinney, for example:

Why would so many witnesses - 47 by my count - think that?  5 seconds seemed like 2 seconds?

The official wording is "immediately, when I was hit" (not "as I was hit)." I did inadvertently say "after" and will edit the post. Thanks.

However, the wording "immediately, when I was hit..." implies to me that he knew he had been hit when he started yelling. His description of what he did after he was hit fits well with what can be seen in the Zapruder film. I place far more weight on what can be seen in the photographic record than the often ambiguous and conflicting witness accounts.

However here is another part of JBC's testimony that agrees with what appears to me to have happened:

Mr. Specter.  What is your best estimate as to the time span between the first shot which you heard and the shot which you heretofore characterized as the third shot?

Governor Connally. It was a very brief span of time; oh I would have to say a matter of seconds. I don't know, 10, 12 seconds? It was extremely rapid.



So here you have JBC specifying what a very "brief span of time" and "extremely rapid" means to him in this situation (10 to 12 seconds). (Put that amount of time in place of the same or similar words in some of the witness accounts which you hang your hat on). Ten to twelve seconds before Z313 would be in the neighborhood of 1-second before, to about the same time that Zapruder began filming that sequence. It also agrees with Tina Towner's account that the first shot sounded just after she stopped filming. It also agrees with the rapid head turns of the limo passengers which I have previously mentioned and Don Roberdeau has charted on his map.

[Jerry Organ]

Why would you find a conspiracy?

Like the House Select Committee ruled it out. And the WC said they couldn't "find" evidence of a conspiracy.

There was no conspiracy.

With you proclaiming it, I'm beginning to have my doubts.

The SBT is only needed to preserve the single shooter conclusion if JBC was hit by the second shot less than 2.3 seconds after the first. But the shot pattern shows that this was not the case. 

The shot pattern evidence that the shot sequence was 1..........2.......3 is perfectly consistent with Oswald firing all three shots.

You make it sound like their brains were digital recorders. Ever hear tell of estimator variables, memory conformity and perceptual set? You probably used it in court. And I bet you heard of the day-care sex-abuse hysteria ( Link ).

In fact, it makes a lot more sense: no shot that missed the entire car at 50 yards; the first aimed shot at reasonably close range as the passed below, followed by a careful re-aim for the second as the car proceeded down the road and the third shot following quickly without the need to re-aim as the car was moving directly away from the shooter.

Also, with 3 shots, 3 hits, there is no need to imagine a shot well before points at which witnesses said the first shot occurred; no need to imagine that witnesses were hallucinating when they said the last two shots were closer together;

Hallucinating? How florid, Mr. Lane. So the witnesses who said the shots were evenly-spaced or the first two were closer together were instead hallucinating.

and no need to contort bodies to make the right to left path through JFK's midline meet JBC on his far right side.
If JBC is turned as he is in z193, his spine has to be farther forward than the back of the jump seat. 

Just a little bit of Connally's right shoulder, the part that's above the top of jump-seat, is claimed to reach back behind the front surface of the seat-back. The location of the jump-seat doesn't alone determine where the models are positioned for a photo-match, though you seem to think it's the most important thing. Grasping at straws.



If I leave Connally's head where it is in the Croft photo and turn his shoulders, some of the right shoulder has to go towards Kennedy, as the photo shows it doing so.

He is turned about 60 degrees

You have him turned 70 degrees. Myers goes with 50 degrees. I suspect the latter may be too much, but Myers does have the right shoulder tip over the top of the back of the jump-seat.

and his right shoulder is not pressed against the jump seat back,

Right. His right shoulder is above the seat-back.

so I would say that is spine must be 6 inches at least in front of the jump seat back surface.  So the question is how far is JFK's throat from the seat back surface of the jump seat.  I measure that to be 27 inches using the scale drawing.

And the band played on.

[Andrew Mason]

You make it sound like their brains were digital recorders. Ever hear tell of estimator variables, memory conformity and perceptual set? You probably used it in court. And I bet you heard of the day-care sex-abuse hysteria ( Link ).

No. I have never heard of a simple fact that is4 easy to observe where the vast majority of a group of 60+ witnesses got it completely backward.  If the shot pattern was 1......2........3 and there was only a 10% chance of recalling it correctly, of those who recalled it incorrectly one would expect most to have recalled the shots as being about equally spaced. Why would the vast majority recall the opposite pattern  1.......2...3?

Hallucinating? How florid, Mr. Lane. So the witnesses who said the shots were evenly-spaced or the first two were closer together were instead hallucinating.

It is not just that we have 47+ witnesses, many with specific recollections of the shot pattern, that you think got it wrong. You also think that large groups of witnesses who placed the time of the first shot after z186 or the second after z255 such as Betzner, Willis (Linda and Phil), Altgens, Hickey, Kinney, Hughes, motorcade witnesses, etc got their recollections which fit with the 1........2...3 pattern - indeed require it - wrong.  The 10 or so witnesses who thought the shots were evenly spaced and even fewer who gave statements that the pattern was the reverse are likely due to statistically expected error. Not every witness is accurate. Some get it wrong.  But when they get it wrong their recollections are distributed over the range of possible wrong answers.

Just a little bit of Connally's right shoulder, the part that's above the top of jump-seat, is claimed to reach back behind the front surface of the seat-back. The location of the jump-seat doesn't alone determine where the models are positioned for a photo-match, though you seem to think it's the most important thing. Grasping at straws.



If I leave Connally's head where it is in the Croft photo and turn his shoulders, some of the right shoulder has to go towards Kennedy, as the photo shows it doing so.

You have him turned 70 degrees. Myers goes with 50 degrees. I suspect the latter may be too much, but Myers does have the right shoulder tip over the top of the back of the jump-seat.

Right. His right shoulder is above the seat-back.

And the band played on.

You have to have JBC turned as shown in z193.  There is no way that JBC's right shoulder is over the top of the jump seat back.  How far forward of the jump seat back surface is his spine when he is turned 60 degrees like that?  That's the issue.

[Andrew Mason]

FWIW, Andrew, I did quite a bit of reading on this very issue, and the fact is that a witness' sense of time almost always slows down considerably during a traumatic event.The expectation would be, then, that if the last two shots were in fact 5 seconds apart, that many of the witnesses would say they were 10 seconds apart, not one or two seconds apart.

I don't think it applies to everyone the same way. Witnesses who were farther away and did not realize a traumatic event was occurring would not necessarily overestimate the time between the last two shots because of trauma.  Generally, humans are not good at estimating absolute times. They are much better at identifying relative times and patterns: rhythm. 

That so many witnesses heard the last two shots bang-bang, then, strongly suggests that there was but one shot at this time, and that they heard echoes, or, much more disturbingly, that there were indeed two shots at this time, fired too closely together to have been fired by a bolt-action rifle.

Many said that the last two shots were distinct but noticeably close together without estimating the time between shots. That 1........2....3 pattern was common to the vast majority of witnesses who recalled the relative spacing of the shots. Many more simply recalled a shot and then two more shots without commenting on the spacing. While some, like Kellerman, thought that they were almost simultaneous, others did not. Greer, right beside him, said that the second came just before he turned around the first time and the third shot came after he turned a second time to look back.  We can time this in the zfilm and it is at least 2 seconds. Emmett Hudson said they were about as fast as one could fire a bolt action rifle. Bob Jackson who was on Houston St. some distance from the president said they were about 2 seconds apart.

One should note, moreover, that the first police report on the suspected sniper said he may be carrying a Winchester rifle. This was undoubtedly a reference to a popular TV show at the time, The Rifleman, in which the main character famously fired a Winchester lever-action rifle, which fired roughly twice a second, around 5 times as fast as the rifle found in the building.

If the person who wrote that report knew a lot about different rifles and said that "Winchester" comment was based on shot spacing that they heard, it might be probative of the relative spacing of the shots. Do we have any idea what that comment was based on? In the grand scheme of things, that kind of evidence is not as useful as actual witness reports about the relative shot spacing.