The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

JFK's reaction to being shot seems strange in a couple of ways. Firstly, he doesn't 'clutch' at his throat as one might expect, instead his hands clench into fists which he seems to jam under his chin. Secondly is the way his elbows extend upwards in quite an extreme way. For a second or so he seems to go rigid, his elbows extended upwards. To me this seems more like a reflex than a straightforward reaction to an external stimulus. The difference being that a reflex is quicker than a reaction.

“The average reaction time for a visual stimulus is about 250 milliseconds. The average reaction time for an auditory stimulus is about 170 milliseconds and for a touch stimulus 150 milliseconds.” [https://www.onaverage.co.uk/other-averages/average-reaction-time]

If we assume the average reaction to a touch stimulus is 150 milliseconds we can use this to get a rough estimate of when JFK was first hit. Before that, it must be established when JFK first reacted to being shot. As I stated in an earlier post, as JFK begins to emerge from behind the Stemmons sign (z224) we can see his right hand in a slightly raised position. I argued that, as he was coming to the end of his last wave I couldn't draw anything conclusive about this hand position (ie: he was already reaching for his throat) and that the movement of his left arm/hand was a much truer indication of when he reacted to being shot. It appeared to me that the most obvious reaction began at z226 but there seemed to be a hint of movement at z225. In the clip below i would like to focus on JFK's right hand. It is known that after being shot his hands clench into fists which he thrusts under his chin. The clip below shows the moment his right hand clenches shut into a fist:



It seems clear to me that his hand is beginning to close in z225 and fully closes shut in z226. From this I conclude that his very first reaction to being shot can be seen in z225.
Each Zapruder frame represents, approximately, a timespan of 55 milliseconds. If we accept the reaction time to a touch stimulus as 150 milliseconds this means the stimulus (the shot) cannot have occurred more than 4 z-frames before the reaction. That is to say, the shot to which JFK is reacting cannot have occurred before z221, particularly if it is a reflex reaction. It is also worth noting that a reflex reaction is much quicker than a normal reaction to a stimulus. As such it can be expected that the first shot hit JFK z221 to z224.

[Dan O'meara]

Maybe so. Just that Kennedy's hands sometimes ended up in a clutched position anyway.

What doesn't come across in the Gif I posted showing JFK's 'hand clench' is the speed his hand slams shut. Because I often look at various videos(particularly Zapruder) in slow motion, it distorts my perception of how quickly events take place. His hand goes from a fairly open position to closed in 110-165 milliseconds. It's amazingly quick. In one instant he seems to be in a fairly relaxed, unsuspecting state and then slams his hand shut in a fraction of a second. I did this Gif to try and demonstrate the speed things are happening but I'm not sure if it captures it correctly:



I have no way of measuring it but I'd be surprised if I could do it any quicker, the difference being I would be expecting it.

[Allan Fritzke]

I really don't see the importance of a clenched fist.  The obvious is his reaction like someone choking or about to gasp for breath.  The motion exhibited show the President in a motion to move his hands towards his neck and the continuance of the frames shows that.    There is an obvious reactive movement to something foreign that just occurred.   He normally would be continuing to wave.  To me, he  felt something hit him and instinctively moved hands to neck area as someone who is choking.  Frames later you can see his puffed cheeks which indicates breathing problems are occurring.  I would agree the shot came while he was hidden behind the sign and he changed his stance from crowd waving. 

I would be more apt to analyze how high his right elbow goes up in reaction.  For example, is this a defensive posture move as a bullet comes from grassy knoll direction to protect himself from a further assault?   His first reaction is not to duck and lower his head behind the seat.   Jacqueline quickly reaches over with both hands and puts her hand on his left arm to stabilize him.  The secondary movement of the crowd running to the grassy knoll should give secondary confirmation of where bullets where coming from.    Who benefits from a single lone nut gunman narrative that is contrary to the crowd's response? 

Reactions at or after Z313 by others in car are much more extreme but coincide more with a frontal/side assault than a rear assault.  Connally and front SS agent duck below seat level.  JFK's head move back with impact not forward.  Connally's head reappears behind driver's post in an obvious defensive move to move left and out of harm's way in the shuffle.   He is still very conscious of his movements and appears to be sitting or kneeling? there after the assassination was completed - his head wasn't in Nellie's lap yet!

In fact, the movement exhibited  at Z313 by the President is an exact same movement to the first shot.   His right elbow raises once more, just weaker.  This time it is a headshot but has exact same reaction exhibited by him.  Notably, the bullet also strikes a hard object (his head) and pushes it back.

The other thing to note is that if this was a mafia hit job and not an inside coup d'etat, you would expect more transparency and a real investigation to ensue.  There is nothing really to hide if it was the mafia and so why were there all the investigative problems/blunders and total lack of congruency - abetted confusion?  These people are not a bunch of bumbling idiots like they would have you to believe!   A totally controlled event including autopsy control, destroying or tampering with evidence , pristine bullets on stretchers found for example and creating statements and narrative as required.    This was total control, well planned and executed.   Car and body removed from Dallas and information released as required to paint a story.  Time is a great healer and so films hidden and released years later.   50 year seal orders placed to protect the guilty.  Most evidence really was shredded anyway and nothing left to hide as it was sanitized early on.   Why the need to protect if a LNer or even if mafia?       

This is a classic example of state controlled media and events - much of what we continue to see today.  Patriot's Act and Homeland Security Act which enacted to allow government to spy on its own people at will.  Was it politicized and used against Trump and his campaign and presidency?     2nd amendment rights are on the way out if they have their way and COVID used as a weapon to create unrest and violence and aid that end.    The scaremonger mentality is being pushed through once more with the help of media.  Do the people control the government or does the government control the people?   A lot of scientific expert opinions .....

I digress!  Clearly, currency is backed only by paper and not gold.  This started with FDR and Executive Order 6102 which banned people from owning gold!    Do the people of a nation benefit from such moves and erosion of their rights?    JFK saw this happening and called it the Military-Industrial Complex - Crony Capitalism for short.   Trump like JFK has no business interfering with their games and exposing the swamp and how they get rich and ride the wave.  Why do those in politics end up getting rich?  Did past Presidents Obama, Clinton, the Bushes and others make their money from Presidential wages or was it by other means?   Obviously you could launch an argument that they were just shrewd investors and used their wages "earned" to get rich - that's a laugh!   Did Biden give his brother choice military contracts in Iraq?

Democracy is nothing more than a facade.   Families run countries.   Whether Democracy, Communism or Socialism,  the scum always floats to the top, rich get richer and poor get poorer and politics has an "end".    Again sorry for the digression.

[Dan O'meara]

I really don't see the importance of a clenched fist.  The obvious is his reaction like someone choking or about to gasp for breath.  The motion exhibited show the President in a motion to move his hands towards his neck and the continuance of the frames shows that.    There is an obvious reactive movement to something foreign that just occurred.   He normally would be continuing to wave.  To me, he  felt something hit him and instinctively moved hands to neck area as someone who is choking.  Frames later you can see his puffed cheeks which indicates breathing problems are occurring.  I would agree the shot came while he was hidden behind the sign and he changed his stance from crowd waving. 

I would be more apt to analyze how high his right elbow goes up in reaction.  For example, is this a defensive posture move as a bullet comes from grassy knoll direction to protect himself from a further assault?   His first reaction is not to duck and lower his head behind the seat.   Jacqueline quickly reaches over with both hands and puts her hand on his left arm to stabilize him.  The secondary movement of the crowd running to the grassy knoll should give secondary confirmation of where bullets where coming from.    Who benefits from a single lone nut gunman narrative that is contrary to the crowd's response? 

Reactions at or after Z313 by others in car are much more extreme but coincide more with a frontal/side assault than a rear assault.  Connally and front SS agent duck below seat level.  JFK's head move back with impact not forward.  Connally's head reappears behind driver's post in an obvious defensive move to move left and out of harm's way in the shuffle.   He is still very conscious of his movements and appears to be sitting or kneeling? there after the assassination was completed - his head wasn't in Nellie's lap yet!

In fact, the movement exhibited  at Z313 by the President is an exact same movement to the first shot.   His right elbow raises once more, just weaker.  This time it is a headshot but has exact same reaction exhibited by him.  Notably, the bullet also strikes a hard object (his head) and pushes it back.

The other thing to note is that if this was a mafia hit job and not an inside coup d'etat, you would expect more transparency and a real investigation to ensue.  There is nothing really to hide if it was the mafia and so why were there all the investigative problems/blunders and total lack of congruency - abetted confusion?  These people are not a bunch of bumbling idiots like they would have you to believe!   A totally controlled event including autopsy control, destroying or tampering with evidence , pristine bullets on stretchers found for example and creating statements and narrative as required.    This was total control, well planned and executed.   Car and body removed from Dallas and information released as required to paint a story.  Time is a great healer and so films hidden and released years later.   50 year seal orders placed to protect the guilty.  Most evidence really was shredded anyway and nothing left to hide as it was sanitized early on.   Why the need to protect if a LNer or even if mafia?       

This is a classic example of state controlled media and events - much of what we continue to see today.  Patriot's Act and Homeland Security Act which enacted to allow government to spy on its own people at will.  Was it politicized and used against Trump and his campaign and presidency?     2nd amendment rights are on the way out if they have their way and COVID used as a weapon to create unrest and violence and aid that end.    The scaremonger mentality is being pushed through once more with the help of media.  Do the people control the government or does the government control the people?   A lot of scientific expert opinions .....

I digress!  Clearly, currency is backed only by paper and not gold.  This started with FDR and Executive Order 6102 which banned people from owning gold!    Do the people of a nation benefit from such moves and erosion of their rights?    JFK saw this happening and called it the Military-Industrial Complex - Crony Capitalism for short.   Trump like JFK has no business interfering with their games and exposing the swamp and how they get rich and ride the wave.  Why do those in politics end up getting rich?  Did past Presidents Obama, Clinton, the Bushes and others make their money from Presidential wages or was it by other means?   Obviously you could launch an argument that they were just shrewd investors and used their wages "earned" to get rich - that's a laugh!   Did Biden give his brother choice military contracts in Iraq?

Democracy is nothing more than a facade.   Families run countries.   Whether Democracy, Communism or Socialism,  the scum always floats to the top, rich get richer and poor get poorer and politics has an "end".    Again sorry for the digression.

Some serious digressing here Allan, most of which I agree with but it doesn't concern us here. The point of this thread is to establish when the first of three assumed shots from the TSBD hit JFK. Some researchers believe the first shot missed and occurred before the Presidential limo passed behind the Stemmons sign (some have it before the limo appears in Zapruder - before z133). The arguments presented in this thread have, I believe, demonstrated that the first shot hit JFK and his reaction is clearly seen in the Z-film (clenched fists towards the throat, elbows extended).

"I really don't see the importance of a clenched fist."

Part of the evidence demonstrating this shot occurred after JFK passed behind the Stemmons sign is how JFK's right hand snaps shut in a fraction of a second, which I believe is a reflexive reaction to being shot. As a reflex reaction it is possible to find out how quickly after the initial stimulus (being shot) this reaction occurs and convert this time into z-frames and count back from the initial reaction to give a good estimate of when the initial stimulus occurred (ie: when JFK was hit by the first shot). In the clip posted it is possible to see his hand beginning to snap shut in z225 which pinpoints the moment of initial reaction. It is possible to estimate the speed this reaction would occur after the initial stimulus (a normal touch reaction is thought to be around 150 milliseconds but a reflex reaction is somewhat quicker. I would say 100 milliseconds is a fair estimate). If it is assumed that the stimulus occurs 100 milliseconds before the reaction and, as each Z-frame represents approximately 55 milliseconds it would be expected that the first shot hit JFK 2-3 Z-frames before the initial reaction. That is to say 2-3 Z-frames before z225 (z222/z223)

The clip below shows JFK's hand snapping shut. It must be remembered that it's in slo-mo and doesn't express the rapid nature of the hand-snap:

[John Iacoletti]

Well, Dan, since SS, FBI, etc., in their initial surveys completed by Mr. West in late 1963 located the first hit at Z207, why exactly do you feel the need, 57 years later, to reexamine what was/is already known.

The Z film is one big 26-second long Rorschach test.

[Dan O'meara]

Well, Dan, since SS, FBI, etc., in their initial surveys completed by Mr. West in late 1963 located the first hit at Z207, why exactly do you feel the need, 57 years later, to reexamine what was/is already known.

I get the impression there's something about this thread you're not quite grasping. It's about the timing of the first of three assumed shots that came from the TSBD. You keep bringing up the partial survey of Dealey Plaza completed by Robert West but, and maybe I'm wrong here, you seem to think that the West survey had something to do with establishing the timing of the shots.
It had absolutely nothing to do with the West survey!
These timings were provided to West. The timings were not established by the survey itself. The arguments presented in this thread demonstrate that the timing of the first shot (z207) is unreliable and that there is good testimonial/video/photographic evidence supporting a later first shot.
If you want to accept a first shot at z207 that's your prerogative.

Also, either you, and/or others on this thread keep bringing up Z190 as the first  shot..

At no point have I advocated a first shot at z190, in fact I've argued against specifically that, which you'd know if you'd bothered to read through the thread. Also I'm not aware of any other forum member who has contributed to this thread who has openly advocated at first shot at z190.
It's surely basic manners to read through something you are going to critique or maybe I'm just old-fashioned.

[John Tonkovich]

Z190 was the frame selected for the second shot by the HSCA, based mostly on acoustic analysis partnered with a "pronounced" blur episode "during frames 189-197, a time when other visual evidence suggests that President Kennedy was first shot". Among the "other visual evidence" was their belief that, as he was going behind the sign, Kennedy hand's suddenly stopped moving and he turned his head sharply towards his wife.

In 2007, Vincent Bugliosi surprised many LNers by accepting the HSCA arguments when his book placed the second shot at Z190. Andrew Mason, Forum member and LNer who doesn't accept the SBT, has this original shot sequence:

• Mid-Z190s: JFK neck transit, with bullet missing Connally's back and left side to end up in the Governor's left thigh.
• Z270-Z275: Barely missing Kennedy's head, the bullet strikes Connally's back.
• Z312/313: Head shot.

Some of his frame numbers have changed over the years. Link to his paper: Link.

Mr Organ: you say a "z190 second shot"  .
I think you mean " first".