The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

The HSCA thought Kennedy suddenly turned towards his wife approx.-Z200 as he went behind the sign. But whoever suggested that didn't have a very clear set of Zapruder frames, because later analysis showed the President's remained facing forward in that interval.

That is not only what the HSCA based its conclusion on.  At 6 HSCA 17 the Photographic panel concluded:

• "(70) At approximately Zapruder frame 200, Kennedy's movements
  suddenly freeze ; his right hand abruptly stops in the midst of a waving
  motion and his head moves rapidly from right to his left in the
  direction of his wife. Based on these movements, it appears that by the
  time the President goes behind the sign at frame 207 he is evidencing
  some kind of reaction to a severe external stimulus. By the time he
  emerges from behind the sign at Zapruder frame 225, the President
  makes a clutching motion with his hands toward his neck, indicating
  clearly that he has been shot."

They did not say he was not facing forward.  His head was turned sharply to the right in z193. Turning to his left is to face forward.

How can the right arm be "pressed" again the jacket? The crown of the hat would be several inches into his chest. You kidder.

Really Jerry? Let me guess - you don't own a stetson do you?

Connally is leaning into the seatback of his seat, so his right nipple is lower than his left. On the line-of-sight to Zapruder, the right nipple would be seen visible just above the car rail (though some distance from the car rail itself if shown in other views).

Your right nipple is that low?  Mine is 7 inches below the top of my tie knot.

How do you know Hickey hadn't looked back earlier? Or that he was too ashamed to say he continued looking back until after hearing a second shot?

Because he said so.   He said he looked rearward and then looked forward and was looking at JFK at the time he heard the second and third shots.

Your Theory requires Hickey to turn his head around between Z55 and Z271 (just shy of one sec), locate where the President is, observe him  "slumped forward and to his left, and was straightening up to an almost erect sitting position" and then witness "the hair on the right side of his head flew forward". All in one second.

Can you not turn your head in much less than a second? I can. Greer turned his head from looking rearward to looking forward between z289 and z294. That is a bit more than a quarter of a second.

[Dan O'meara]

That is not what the HSCA based its conclusion on.  At 6 HSCA 17 the Photographic panel concluded:

• "(70) At approximately Zapruder frame 200, Kennedy's movements
  suddenly freeze ; his right hand abruptly stops in the midst of a waving
  motion and his head moves rapidly from right to his left in the
  direction of his wife. Based on these movements, it appears that by the
  time the President goes behind the sign at frame 207 he is evidencing
  some kind of reaction to a severe external stimulus. By the time he
  emerges from behind the sign at Zapruder frame 225, the President
  makes a clutching motion with his hands toward his neck, indicating
  clearly that he has been shot."

This has been completely debunked elsewhere in this thread.
Yet another pillar supporting your model topples.

Because he said so.   He said he looked rearward and then looked forward and was looking at JFK at the time he heard the second and third shots.
Can you not turn your head in much less than a second? I can. Greer turned his head from looking rearward to looking forward between z289 and z294. That is a bit more than a quarter of a second.

The point about Hickey (other than being the sole witness to the 'pre-headshot hair ruffle) is that he describes the second and third shot as follows -  "there seemed to be practically no time element between them".
Think about that - practically no time element.
He is describing JFK's hair flying up due to his head exploding and the subsequent movement of his body as two separate incidents that have "no time element between them".

Hickey is not describing the 'hair ruffle' seen in Zapruder, Jerry has ably demonstrated he is not in a position to see it but, also, there is at least two seconds between the z-film 'hair ruffle' and the headshot. In no way can this be described as having 'practically no time element between them'.
You have put too much stock in this single, unsupported witness who is clearly describing something other than you would have us believe.
Another pillar crumbles.

[Andrew Mason]

This has been completely debunked elsewhere in this thread.
Yet another pillar supporting your model topples.

I was just pointing out that others have opined that JFK appeared to be struck before z223.  You agree that JFK was struck on the first shot. Phil Willis said his z202 photo was taken just after the first shot.  So I am not alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223.  You agree with the 1..........2......3 shot pattern.  If the head shot was the last shot, as many witnesses said and which makes sense, then the first shot had to be earlier than z223. 

The point about Hickey (other than being the sole witness to the 'pre-headshot hair ruffle) is that he describes the second and third shot as follows -  "there seemed to be practically no time element between them".
Think about that - practically no time element.

He is describing JFK's hair flying up due to his head exploding and the subsequent movement of his body as two separate incidents that have "no time element between them".

I can't tell what he meant by "practically".  Obviously, he did not mean there was no discernible period of time between them. Perhaps he meant that there was no period of silence between them.  Mary Woodward observed that the sound of the second shot had not died out before the third was heard:

• "The second two shots were immediate --- it was almost as if one were an echo of the other -- they came so quickly. The sound of one did not cease until the second shot.” … “and then the third shot came very, very quickly, on top of the second one”.

Hickey is not describing the 'hair ruffle' seen in Zapruder, Jerry has ably demonstrated he is not in a position to see it but, also, there is at least two seconds between the z-film 'hair ruffle' and the headshot. In no way can this be described as having 'practically no time element between them'.
You have put too much stock in this single, unsupported witness who is clearly describing something other than you would have us believe.

So how do you account for the fact that 1) he reported seeing JFK's hair fly up at the moment he heard the second shot as if it just missed his head on the right side and 2) JFK's hair actually flies up from z273 to z276 just as he said he observed?  How is that even possible unless he actually saw what he said he saw?  Jerry was not there.  Hickey was. He was standing up in the QM. How can you be so sure he could not see JFK?  Are you suggesting he did not see the head shot?

[Dan O'meara]

I was just pointing out that others have opined that JFK appeared to be struck before z223.

Of course there are different models attempting to explain when the first shot occurred, that is what this thread is about. Some have it taking place before Zapruder even starts filming the Presidential limo itself. We have seen the differences between yourself, myself, Jerry and Charles, all presenting very different models using the same evidence.
Unlike others, I have put much emphasis on the Z-film with all other evidence being secondary and used to support what we see there. The arguments I have put forward to support my own model - a first shot at z223 - have stood up to any challenge presented here whilst other models have been shown to be completely at odds with what we see in the Z-film if we accept basic evidence, such as the majority of ear-witnesses hearing three audible shots.

You agree that JFK was struck on the first shot.

Yes I do

Phil Willis said his z202 photo was taken just after the first shot.  So I am not alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223.

You rely on single witness statements too much. Willis is contradicted by other witness statements so no absolute authority can be given to it. He could easily be mistaken and, as I've demonstrated in this thread, the Z-film appears to show he is indeed mistaken
No-one is saying you're alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223. What we have seen, though, is the disintegration of your own model - nothing in the Z-film supports it in any substantial way, having the assassin firing through dense foliage, the impossible ballistics etc.

You agree with the 1..........2......3 shot pattern.

Yes, I do.

If the head shot was the last shot, as many witnesses said and which makes sense, then the first shot had to be earlier than z223.

The failures of your model argue against the headshot being the final shot (a shot after the headshot is something many witnesses testify to). The integrity of the shot pattern can be kept with a shot after the headshot without the pitfalls your own model has run into.

 
I can't tell what he meant by "practically".  Obviously, he did not mean there was no discernible period of time between them. Perhaps he meant that there was no period of silence between them.  Mary Woodward observed that the sound of the second shot had not died out before the third was heard:

• "The second two shots were immediate --- it was almost as if one were an echo of the other -- they came so quickly. The sound of one did not cease until the second shot.” … “and then the third shot came very, very quickly, on top of the second one”.

When he is saying there is practically no time element between the two shots he is saying the shots were almost simultaneous. Some thing others seem to testify to. In your model there is a gap of over two seconds between the 'hair ruffle and the headshot'. In no way can a gap of over two seconds be described as 'practically no time element' or 'almost simultaneous'.

[/list]So how do you account for the fact that 1) he reported seeing JFK's hair fly up at the moment he heard the second shot as if it just missed his head on the right side and 2) JFK's hair actually flies up from z273 to z276 just as he said he observed?  How is that even possible unless he actually saw what he said he saw?  Jerry was not there.  Hickey was. He was standing up in the QM. How can you be so sure he could not see JFK?  Are you suggesting he did not see the head shot?

Hickey is describing the headshot. His hair does not 'fly up' from z272 to z276. It ruffles in the wind. Exactly the same thing happens just before the headshot (@ z305). It is something that surely happened dozens of times during the parade.
Jerry does not need to be there, that is the point of the modelling he does. He has demonstrated that Hickey was not in a position to see the 'hair ruffle' but was in the position to see the hair blown off as JKF's head explodes.

It's time to reconsider your model.
You seem like a reasonable person and must surely see the insurmountable problems that have arisen for your model.

[Andrew Mason]

Of course there are different models attempting to explain when the first shot occurred, that is what this thread is about. Some have it taking place before Zapruder even starts filming the Presidential limo itself. We have seen the differences between yourself, myself, Jerry and Charles, all presenting very different models using the same evidence.
Unlike others, I have put much emphasis on the Z-film with all other evidence being secondary and used to support what we see there.

The zfilm alone does not tell us where JFK or JBC is hit and does not tell us when the first two shots occurred.  So the events that it shows have to be interpreted with the rest of the evidence. For example, when JFK and Jackie turn sharp right at about z160-175 from looking left and wave to bystanders, it appeared to Mary Woodward that this was done in response to them shouting and waving to get the President's attention and that the first shot was after this.  Also, no one said that JFK smiled and waved after the first shot.  Yet many ignore that evidence and conclude that this was a turn in response to hearing a gunshot.  All those who support second shot SBT do that.  They are just fooling themselves.

You rely on single witness statements too much. Willis is contradicted by other witness statements so no absolute authority can be given to it. He could easily be mistaken and, as I've demonstrated in this thread, the Z-film appears to show he is indeed mistaken.

I am not relying only on Phil Willis.  His evidence is supported by several others including:

• His daughter, Linda, said that the first shot occurred when the President’s limousine was in line with her and the Stemmons sign, which puts it well before z223 and in that z195-205 area.
• His other daughter, Rosemary, turns her head sharply rearward toward the TSBD between z204 and z207.
• Hugh Betzner who said that he had started to wind his camera after taking his z186 photo when the first shot occurred.
• T.E. Moore (24 H 534) who gave a statement saying "By the time President KENNEDY had reached the Thornton Freeway sign, a shot was fired and Mr. MOORE observed the President slumping forward in the Presidential car."  The President was opposite the Thornton sign at z200 - well before z223.
• Occupants of the VP car who said that they had just turned the corner and were going down Elm St. when the first shot occurred.  It is almost finished the turn when last seen in the zfilm at z180.
• Occupants of the VP follow-up car who said that they were still turning - were along side the TSBD when the first shot occurred.  It is in the middle of its turn at z191 when last seen and is just a few frames away from the position they described.

No-one is saying you're alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223. What we have seen, though, is the disintegration of your own model - nothing in the Z-film supports it in any substantial way, having the assassin firing through dense foliage, the impossible ballistics etc.

As I have pointed out, JFK is clear of the foliage when he was opposite the Thornton Freeway sign as seen in the Secret Service film:
And I have shown that he was opposite the Thornton sign at z200:

The failures of your model argue against the headshot being the final shot (a shot after the headshot is something many witnesses testify to). The integrity of the shot pattern can be kept with a shot after the headshot without the pitfalls your own model has run into.

There are are many more witnesses who said that the head shot was the last shot: all the Secret Service agents, the Connallys, Dave Powers and Altgens. A third shot after the head shot means the shooter continued firing after such an obvious hit to the head. 

When he is saying there is practically no time element between the two shots he is saying the shots were almost simultaneous. Some thing others seem to testify to. In your model there is a gap of over two seconds between the 'hair ruffle and the headshot'. In no way can a gap of over two seconds be described as 'practically no time element' or 'almost simultaneous'.

It is if he meant that they overlapped: as Mary Woodward said, the sound of the second had not died out before the third shot was heard.

Hickey is describing the headshot. His hair does not 'fly up' from z272 to z276. It ruffles in the wind. Exactly the same thing happens just before the headshot (@ z305). It is something that surely happened dozens of times during the parade.
Jerry does not need to be there, that is the point of the modelling he does. He has demonstrated that Hickey was not in a position to see the 'hair ruffle' but was in the position to see the hair blown off as JKF's head explodes.

There is no hair flying up at z305.  You are seeing movement of the camera. The hair is identical in z304 and z306. The camera moves during the exposure of z305 as you can see in the double line on the car (look at the roof support bar).

[Steve M. Galbraith]

This is a very good thread. Some interesting views/thoughts. Thanks to Dan for starting it.

And as always, thanks to Duncan for putting up with us group of three year olds.....

[Andrew Mason]

The only place I can find where it might be thought by Woodward that the Kennedys were both "full-faced" towards her group is in the Tina Towner film.

That fits what we see from z154 when JFK begins to turn right
The President turns rightward in the Z150s with Mrs. Kennedy starting to turn in the Z160s. They don't turn rightward nowhere else during the approach to the Stemmons Frwy sign.


That would be more consistent with what Woodward described. As well, Woodward said she saw the Kennedys react to hearing the first shot:

Why not use Mary Woodward's DMN article that she wrote within a couple of hours of the events:

• "The President was looking straight ahead and we were afraid we were afraid we would not get to see his face.But we started clapping and cheering and both he and Mrs. Kennedy turned, and smiled and waved, directly at us, it seemed. Jackie was wearing a beautiful pink suit with beret to match. Two of us, who had seen the President last during the final weeks of the 1960 campaign remarked how relaxed and robust he looked.
  
  As it turned out, we were almost certainly the last faces he noticed in the crowd.
  
  After acknowledging our cheers, he faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-shattering noise coming from behind us and a little to the right".
  

We can see beginning that prior to z170 the President is facing forward and a bit to the right but not sharp right. Jackie is looking left.  At this point the President is approaching Mary Woodward and her friends (the President is opposite them at z190-195).  We can see that they are clapping.  At z170-180 his head turns fully right and looks at them and he gives a full wave of his right hand and smiles.  Jackie's head turns from looking left to looking sharp right, as well from z173 to z192, which is one second, .  JFK then turns forward by z206. 

This is exactly what Mary Woodward described as occurring just before the first shot. She said that she thought that they were the last people the President acknowledged before that first "horrible, ear-shattering noise".