The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

The problem with a first shot at z223, apart from the need for an instantaneous facial and hand reaction, is the relative timing of the shots.  As I have pointed out, the overwhelming timing evidence is that:

1. there were 3 shots.
2. the head shot was the last shot
3. the last two shots were in rapid succession, the second shot being perceptibly closer to the third than the first:  1...........2......3  (A shot, a pause and two shots in rapid succession - see for example SA Lawson, Sheriff Craig, Ladybird Johnson, Luke Mooney, Mary Woodward, Pearl Springer all set out in my tabulation

The FBI determined that 2.3 seconds is about the fastest that two aimed shots could be made with Oswald's MC.

2.3 seconds or 42 frames prior to z313 is z271.

If the first shot was at z223, that would make the first interval 48 frames (271-223). That is a ratio of 48:42 which does not fit with the shot pattern.  But a first shot around z190-200 (81:42 or 71:42) fits the pattern.  That shot pattern fits pretty much the rest of the evidence as well - except Connally being hit in the back by z230.  Perhaps he wasn't.  Perhaps he was just turning around to see the President after realizing, in horror, that he had just heard a rifle shot and was fearing an assassination unfolding.  After all, both he and Nelly said he turned around to see the President before he was hit in the back.  By z271 there was a  clear path from the SN to Connally's back that just passes to the right of JFK's head.  Hickey said that JFK's hair flew up on the right side at the time of the second shot but it did not hit him.  Where should we look for that hair flying up?

Firstly Andrew I'd just like to say you've written a fantastic paper, really well presented and not something to be taken lightly. I'm in total agreement with your analysis of the shot pattern and, I assume, you have the first shot as the one that causes JFK to raise his hands to his throat (that is to say the first audible shot of the three assumed to be fired from the TSBD was a hit)
In this thread I am proposing a first shot at z223 that passes through both JFK and JBC, a second shot that is the headshot and a third missed shot. I would like to take some time to construct a worthy case for my position but I'd like to start off with an assertion you make in your post - that there is overwhelming timing evidence that the head shot was the last shot.
In your paper you seem to just accept Posner's claim for the last shot being at z312/313 but don't present the evidence for it.
I am simply assuming a third shot miss as I can't find any evidence for it from the video/photographic evidence but I need to make it fit the shot pattern. I believe there is plenty of witness evidence for a shot after the fatal headshot or the fatal headshot as the second shot but I would like the time to compile it rather than just insist it exists.
You also make a good point about JFK's reaction time to being shot. In the model I'm presenting the reflex reaction to JFK being hit is extremely rapid.

[Dan O'meara]

It appears to me that by the time Altgens 6 was taken that the looking around at things in various locations and observing nothing unusual, then discussing it, phase has already taken place.

What is it about Altgens 6 that makes it appear to you that all these things have already happened?

[Dan O'meara]

Andrew, as I understand it (correct me if I'm wrong) you are proposing a first shot @z190-z200, a second shot @z271 and a third shot at z312/313.

There is an interesting detail in Altgens 6 that puts quite a strain on this timing. This is from Rufus Youngblood's original report:

"I heard an explosion--I was not sure whether it was a firecracker, bomb, bullet, or other explosion. I looked at whatever I could quickly survey, and could not see anything which would indicate the origin of this noise. I noticed that the movements in the Presidential car were very abnormal and, at practically the same time, the movements in the Presidential follow-up car were abnormal. I turned in my seat and with my left arm grasped and shoved the Vice President, at his right shoulder, down and toward Mrs. Johnson and Senator Yarborough. At the same time, I shouted
"get down!" I believe I said this more than once and directed it to the Vice President and the other occupants of the rear seat. They all responded very rapidly."

He hears "an explosion"
Has a quick look around
Notices 'abnormal movements' in the limo and follow-up car
Turns to LBJ and as he shoves him shouts at Mrs Johnson and Yarborough
"They all responded very rapidly"

This is from Hurchel Jacks (taken from your paper):

I heard a shot ring out which appeared to come from the right rear of the Vice
President’s car. Mr. Rufus Youngblood, the Secret Service Agent riding in my car
asked me what that was and at the same time he advised the Vice President and Mrs.
Johnson to get down. He climbed to the rear of the seat with the Vice President and
appeared to be shielding the Vice President with his own body. At that time I heard
two more shots ring out.


He hears a shot
Youngblood asks him what it was
Youngblood tells LBJ and Ladybird to get down
Youngblood jumps into the back to shield LBJ
two more shots ring out

Piecing these two statements together it is possible to come up with this scenario:

A shot rings out. Youngblood looks quickly around and asks "What was that?". He sees abnormal movements in the Presidential limo and follow-up car. He turns to the people in the back, tells them to get down and jumps in the back to shield LBJ. Two more shots ring out.

The last point - Youngblood getting into the back before the second shot - is confirmed in Youngbood's WC testimony:

"So I turned around and hit the Vice President on the shoulder and hollered, get down, and then looked around again and saw more of this movement, and so I proceeded to go to the back seat and get on top of him.
I then heard two more shots. But I would like to say this. I would not be positive that I was back on that back seat before the second shot. But the Vice President himself said I was."



The above pic is a detail from Altgens 6 taken at z255. In it I believe it is possible to discern Ladybird Johnson and Yarborough smiling away without a care in the world. This tells me that Youngblood is yet to yell at everyone in the back to get down. This means Youngblood has less than 0.9 of a second to tell everyone to get down and jump in the back to shield LBJ before a second shot at z271. This seems highly unlikely to me.
If the second shot is the headshot it gives Youngblood over 3 seconds to perform the same task which seems far more feasible (IMO).

[John Tonkovich]

Mr OO'meara still hasn't addressed the irregular wound of entry in JFK's back.

[Charles Collins]

What is it about Altgens 6 that makes it appear to you that all these things have already happened?

I already stated that Dan. However, if you believe that the first shot occurred at Z223, I can understand your wanting to interpret Altgens 6 your way. I find it interesting that most of the SS Agents in the follow-up car all describe hearing only two shots (when most of the other witnesses say they heard three). And you have to ignore the evidence suggesting an earlier shot (than Z223) to believe that it was the first shot.

[John Iacoletti]

More misrepresentation from the man who never misrepresents my work.
You lack the courage to take on the work and all the arguments I present on this thread.

There's nothing to "take on".  Your "arguments" consist entirely of squinting at a silent film and pretending like you know when shots occurred.

[Andrew Mason]

Firstly Andrew I'd just like to say you've written a fantastic paper, really well presented and not something to be taken lightly.

I appreciate that.  But we hold a small minority view on this board as both CTers and LNers don't like this evidence.   

The problem for most LNers is that the evidence does not fit with the first shot miss and second shot SBT which seems to be the current SBT scenario preference (it has changed over the years from a first shot SBT at around z207 preferred by the WC to a second shot SBT al la Dr. Lattimer/Gerald Posner at z223 or so). The 3 shot, 3 hit scenario (which was the original assumption by the FBI) is the only scenario that fits all of the evidence.   But the evidence is being discarded because it does not fit with what both LNers and CTers imagine that they can see happening to JBC by  z230.  Both camps believe they can tell he is hit in the torso by z230. CTers say he was hit around z230 on the second shot, the first being around z207 so there must have been 2 shooters.  The LNers say that JFK and JBC are both hit by the SBT second shot at z223 with the first phantom shot missing the entire limo and disappearing without a trace at about z150-160. 

I'm in total agreement with your analysis of the shot pattern and, I assume, you have the first shot as the one that causes JFK to raise his hands to his throat (that is to say the first audible shot of the three assumed to be fired from the TSBD was a hit)

All the witnesses who recalled what JFK did immediately after the first shot, with the possible exception of SA Bennett, said that he reacted in a way consistent only with the way JFK is reacting when he emerges from behind the Stemmons sign in the zfilm.  No one said he continued to smile and wave, let alone for 2-3 seconds afterward. Not even Bennett.

SA Glen Bennett said in his initial notes written shortly after the events (CE 2112, 24 H 542):

"At this point I heard a noise that immediately reminded me of a firecracker. I immediately, upon hearing the supposed fire cracker, looked at the Boss's car. At this exact time I saw a shot that hit the Boss about 4 inches down from the right shoulder; a second shot followed immediately and hit the right rear high of the Boss's head."

That very much looks to me like two shots.  It could be that he was saying he heard the "supposed fire cracker" noise and immediately looked at the President and saw where a shot had hit - about 4 inches down from the right shoulder.  Or, as most LNers interpret it, he heard the loud fire cracker noise and then immediately saw the second shot hit Gov. Connally (without mentioning a second shot sound).  That is is an odd way to say it..  It is further complicated by the fact that the day after the events he gave a statement saying that there were three shots:

""At this point I heard what sounded like a fire-cracker. I immediately looked from the right/crowd/physical area/ and looked towards the President who was seated in the right rear seat of his limosine open convertible. At the moment I looked at the back of the President I heard another fire-cracker noise and saw the shot hit the President about four inches down from the right shoulder. A second shot followed immediately and hit the right rear high of the President's head."

Bennett does say that the third shot followed immediately after the shot that hit the president four inches down from the right shoulder.  So unless he thinks that 5 seconds (the time from z223 to z313) is "immediately" the second shot hitting JFK does not fit what is apparent in the zfilm.

In this thread I am proposing a first shot at z223 that passes through both JFK and JBC, a second shot that is the headshot and a third missed shot. I would like to take some time to construct a worthy case for my position but I'd like to start off with an assertion you make in your post - that there is overwhelming timing evidence that the head shot was the last shot.
In your paper you seem to just accept Posner's claim for the last shot being at z312/313 but don't present the evidence for it.
I am simply assuming a third shot miss as I can't find any evidence for it from the video/photographic evidence but I need to make it fit the shot pattern. I believe there is plenty of witness evidence for a shot after the fatal headshot or the fatal headshot as the second shot but I would like the time to compile it rather than just insist it exists.
You also make a good point about JFK's reaction time to being shot. In the model I'm presenting the reflex reaction to JFK being hit is extremely rapid.

Here are just some of the witnesses who said the last shot hit JFK in the head:

[SA Glen Bennett (quoted above)
Photographer Ike Altgens (7 H 517): "There was not another shot fired after the President was struck in the head. That was the last shot-that much I will say with a great degree of certainty."
SA George Hickey (CE 1024 18 H 762): "The last shot seemed to hit his head and cause a noise at the point of impact which made him fall forward and to his left again."
Governor Connally: (3 H 133): the third shot sounded, and I heard the shot very clearly. I heard it hit him. I heard the shot hit something, and I assumed again-it never entered my mind that it ever hit anybody but the President. I heard it hit. It was a very loud noise, just that audible, very clear.
Immediately I could see on my clothes, my clothing, I could see on the interior of the car which, as I recall, was a pale blue, brain tissue,
Nelly Connally (3 H 147): The third shot that I heard I felt, it felt like spent buckshot falling all over us, and then, of course, I too could see that it was the matter, brain tissue, or whatever, just human matter, all over the car and both of us.
David Powers (7 H 473: "I noticed then that the President moved quite far to his left after the shot from the extreme right hand side where he had been sitting. There was a second shot and Governor Connally disappeared from sight and then there was a third shot which took off the top of the President’s head")
SA Wm. Greer (2 H 119): Mr. SPECTER. Was it at about that time that you heard the third shot?
Mr. GREER. Yes, sir; just as soon as I turned my head.  [he is seen turning his head for the last time at about z305 just before the head shot]

While one can theorize that these witnesses are wrong and that there was a shot after the head shot, I prefer to stick with evidence.  Why the shooter would fire again after such an obvious hit also does not make much sense either.