Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2

[John Tonkovich]

LOL.  That sounds very "scientific."  What medication does your friend attribute to Old Joe's confusion that he is running for senate and his inability to remember Mitt Romney's name?  Instead referring to him as the "Mormon."

Mr Smith: you seem to have trouble remembering Biden's name.

[Colin Crow]

LOL.  That sounds very "scientific."  What medication does your friend attribute to Old Joe's confusion that he is running for senate and his inability to remember Mitt Romney's name?  Instead referring to him as the "Mormon."

Old age....it's a bitch.

As for my friend, it’s anecdotal I agree but he has had considerable experience administrating dex....but don’t take my word for it look up,the side effects for your self.

I hear Julian's suite is available at the Equadorian embassy in London.......wonder if it will get a new inhabitant in the lame duck period?

[Colin Crow]

Looks like the US has more then 2.5 million cases currently according to worldometer website. This number seems too high to me so I went to the CDC website that shows that new cases are at about a rate of 350,000 per week. If we use a month as a reasonable estimate for total disease progression to resolution (maybe a bit on low side), we get 1.4 million active cases. Let's say only about 5% require hospitalisation due to symptoms at the level or greater than the President, that comes to 70,000. Just under 20,000 hospitalisations per week.

The question is, for all those affected, how many more weeks before the arrival of Regeneron? Donald got the "cure", and promised to deliver to all for free. What is he doing to fulfil his promise? In the meantime about 1,000 US citizens die each week while you wait for something.

[John Tonkovich]

Looks like the US has more then 2.5 million cases currently according to worldometer website. This number seems too high to me so I went to the CDC website that shows that new cases are at about a rate of 350,000 per week. If we use a month as a reasonable estimate for total disease progression to resolution (maybe a bit on low side), we get 1.4 million active cases. Let's say only about 5% require hospitalisation due to symptoms at the level or greater than the President, that comes to 70,000. Just under 20,000 hospitalisations per week.

The question is, for all those affected, how many more weeks before the arrival of Regeneron? Donald got the "cure", and promised to deliver to all for free. What is he doing to fulfil his promise? In the meantime about 1,000 US citizens die each week while you wait for something.

Mr Crow: don't sell us short. In the last seven days, Florida alone has 700 deaths. So the figure is closer to 4,000, at the least. (CDC lists deaths by state, but, not total. I'm too tired to do the exact math.) I think you were trying to be very conservative in your estimate, which I do respect.
As to Regeneron, only one study has been released. It's on Regeneron's website, among other places. Only 275 patients, and done on a 1:1:1 basis, i.e. placebo, low dose, high dose, showing marked improvement in symptoms and viral load, most in high dose, a bit less in low dose, as opposed to placebo. Since 275 ÷ 3 = 91.67, basically we're talking about a relatively small sample size, of non hospitalized patients. I was confused by some of the data, but - it seemed? - that they focused on sick patients with non responsive immune system ( no antibodies) and high viral load. All this is good news, with other studies ongoing. However, the focus on non hospitalized patients doesn't tell us anything about, obviously, severely ill/hospitalized patients.
As a non scientist, but avid reader, I would think it's going to be several months, if not longer, before this treatment is approved, and its "cure all" ability is very much in doubt.
Your thoughts?

[Colin Crow]

Mr Crow: don't sell us short. In the last seven days, Florida alone has 700 deaths. So the figure is closer to 4,000, at the least. (CDC lists deaths by state, but, not total. I'm too tired to do the exact math.) I think you were trying to be very conservative in your estimate, which I do respect.
As to Regeneron, only one study has been released. It's on Regeneron's website, among other places. Only 275 patients, and done on a 1:1:1 basis, i.e. placebo, low dose, high dose, showing marked improvement in symptoms and viral load, most in high dose, a bit less in low dose, as opposed to placebo. Since 275 ÷ 3 = 91.67, basically we're talking about a relatively small sample size, of non hospitalized patients. I was confused by some of the data, but - it seemed? - that they focused on sick patients with non responsive immune system ( no antibodies) and high viral load. All this is good news, with other studies ongoing. However, the focus on non hospitalized patients doesn't tell us anything about, obviously, severely ill/hospitalized patients.
As a non scientist, but avid reader, I would think it's going to be several months, if not longer, before this treatment is approved, and its "cure all" ability is very much in doubt.
Your thoughts?

John, there is a very basic formula for pathogens that all of us in the study of microbial disease recognise. The balance between health and disease of an individual depends on three essential variables. The virulence of the pathogen (its pathogenicity), the dose of the pathogen the individual is exposed to. Obviously the larger the number of exposure the greater chance of disease. Countering these two is the resistance of the host. This can obviously include immunity (innate and acquired) and things that assist in overcoming exposure, therapeutics, passive antibodies (eg regeneron) antibiotics or antivirals. Vaccines play a role prior to exposure.

I am hopeful a vaccine will arrive, likely some time next year and it confers good immunity, is widely distributed and the populations of the world derive much needed relief.

Unfortunately there is much we do not know, scientists generally appreciate this and modifying existing dogma is generally the norm. Most involved in science appreciate this but it can be hard for the general public to appreciate that "experts" are frequently wrong but hopefully provide evidence based advice. There is a balance between the general public trust in science with the realisation that we don’t know everything. Add to that the "spin" invariably applied by the media to gain a greater audience.

[John Tonkovich]

John, there is a very basic formula for pathogens that all of us in the study of microbial disease recognise. The balance between health and disease of an individual depends on three essential variables. The virulence of the pathogen (its pathogenicity), the dose of the pathogen the individual is exposed to. Obviously the larger the number of exposure the greater chance of disease. Countering these two is the resistance of the host. This can obviously include immunity (innate and acquired) and things that assist in overcoming exposure, therapeutics, passive antibodies (eg regeneron) antibiotics or antivirals. Vaccines play a role prior to exposure.

I am hopeful a vaccine will arrive, likely some time next year and it confers good immunity, is widely distributed and the populations of the world derive much needed relief.

Unfortunately there is much we do not know, scientists generally appreciate this and modifying existing dogma is generally the norm. Most involved in science appreciate this but it can be hard for the general public to appreciate that "experts" are frequently wrong but hopefully provide evidence based advice. There is a balance between the general public trust in science with the realisation that we don’t know everything. Add to that the "spin" invariably applied by the media to gain a greater audience.

Mr Crow: thanks for the response.
While I was aware that you are a real "man of science ", as opposed to our President,, did not know that this is your specific field of study. ( Unlike the political hack Dr Atlas, whose specialty is...radiology. Ha!)

If I understand correctly, you seem to be suggesting that therapeutics are helpful, but merely a ( minor ) stopgap when looking " big picture". Until an effective - and safe vaccine is developed, the U.S., especially, and the world, in general, are in a very bad place.

[Martin Weidmann]

What a magnificent day for Trump.  He overcomes the virus, returns to the campaign, restores calm in the face of panic, his Supreme Court nominee performs perfectly.  Meanwhile Old Joe announced he is running for the senate.  LOL.  He also could not remember Mitt Romney's name.  Called him the "Mormon."  Wow.   And "Crazy" Nancy went wild on CNN almost inducing a seizure when asked about her efforts to deny virus relief to Americans before the election.  I haven't seen anyone shake like that since Katherine Hepburn near the end of her life.

LOL... Trump loses in the courts time after time. First with his taxreturns and now his latest loss is the wall, which he has to stop building because he has been using defense funds for the wrong purpose. He knows he's going down.... begging for suburban women to love him and alienating senior citizens by doctoring Joe Biden's picture and placing him in a wheel chair. The guy is losing it completely.

And it's getting better and better. Durham can not produce any kind of a report prior to the election (which probably means there's nothing of significance there) and Bill Barr has just been forced to admit that under Obama no illegal unmasking has taken place.... The explosion you possibly hear in the background is Trump imploding....

No plan for the future, no strategy and no record of any significance to stand on.....When all you have to run on is complaints about the age of your opponent and fearmongering, you've really lost already!