Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2

[Rick Plant]

What kind of Americans are keeping Trump support in the 40% range? Surely can't all be racists, so possibly niche-issue people (gun nuts, pro-life, support-for-military/police, anti-immigrant, conspiracy theory, religion, tax cut)? Those people are going to be a problem for Biden and Pelosi long after after the Inaugural Parade has sailed by.

People are thinking outside traditional party lines in places like Canada, where the Green Party is doing well in some provinces. No such hope in the US. They don't want to try anything different or modern.

His main base are the lowlife deplorable racists. The rest are multi millionaires who support him for their tax breaks, hypocritical evangelicals, and Republicans that hate Democrats not caring that a wannabe authoritarian scumbag is killing off people in their communities lying to them each day.     

[Rick Plant]

More New Presidential Polls

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 49%, Trump 42% (USA Today)
ARIZONA: Biden 51%, Trump 45% (CNBC)*
MICHIGAN: Biden 51%, Trump 44%*
WISCONSIN: Biden 52%, Trump 44%*
NORTH CAROLINA : Biden 50%, Trump 47%*


Expert who saw trouble for Clinton in 2016 has bad news for Trump in 2020

Dave Wasserman, a polling expert with the Cook Political Report, closely watches polling at the district level in the United States. And in 2016, he saw signs in the data that Donald Trump was performing better than many expected in areas like New York’s 22nd District — where Mitt Romney and Barack Obama were tied in 2012. Those warnings turned out to be prescient when Trump eked out a narrow win in three key swing states while losing in the popular vote.

An important point about his claims is that Wasserman, a nonpartisan analyst, is privy to a lot of information that isn’t publicly available. While there’s a lot of public national and state-level polling, district-level polls are harder to come by. Many pollsters keep this info private, though they will share it with people like Wasserman. This data can give a closer glimpse into trends and demographic changes in the electorate that other polls may be missing.

But according to Wasserman, this data should give Trump no solace. It’s consistent with Biden’s estimated 10-point lead in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average. He explained his findings in an interview with Greg Sargent of the Washington Post.

“In 2016, district-level polling in late October showed flashing red warning signs for Clinton in districts dominated by White non-college voters,” he said. “It wasn’t being detected so much in state-level polling, because the state polling chronically under-sampled those voters.”

But in 2020, Wasserman is seeing a consistent pattern, and it’s not good for Trump.

"Trump is underperforming his 2016 margins by eight to 10 points in most competitive districts. If Trump won a district by three last time, he’s probably losing it by six this time. It’s a pretty consistent pattern,” he explained.

There are some exceptions and variations, but overall, it’s a brutal picture for the president. He won by the skin of his teeth in 2016 — and he is dramatically underperforming that race.

Trump is doing worst in “upscale suburbs,” Wasserman explained, while he has improved somewhat in his support in some Latino communities. Biden is doing better than Clinton did in districts that are predominately populated by “blue-collar Whites,” though not as well as the Obama-Biden ticket did in 2012.

But Biden is improving most in areas dominated by college-educated white people, and that demographic may well be decisive on Nov. 3. It also means Trump has a difficult path forward to claw back from the hole he’s in.

“Trump needs to boost turnout of non-college Whites by five points nationally, just to offset their declining share of the population since 2016. But he also needs to increase the share of those voters he’s winning,” said Wasserman. “Trump’s gains among non-Whites can only get him so far, because there’s really not much of a Hispanic vote in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. So he’s got to solve this riddle with both persuasion and turnout. He needs to persuade more White voters — both college and non-college — to stick with him. And he really needs to boost non-college White turnout.”

[John Tonkovich]

I feel you're inviting me to speculate!

Of cause there's no way I could tell you what he would have done if.....

However, based on his very evasive reply (town hall) regarding his test results he might have skipped testing prior to the debate to avoid the dilemma you're suggesting and possibly perjuring himself further down the road.

Winner Winner! Chicken Dinner!
There's a clip on Youtube of Trump being deposed; his evasive answers show a man who is well trained in denying responsibility for and knowledge of...anything and everything.

[Richard Smith]

His main base are the lowlife deplorable racists. The rest are multi millionaires who support him for their tax breaks, hypocritical evangelicals, and Republicans that hate Democrats not caring that a wannabe authoritarian scumbag is killing off people in their communities lying to them each day.   

Huh?  Wall St. and the Hollywood millionaires are all supporting Hiden.  That is where his enormous dark money is flowing from.  Tump's donations are coming from the average American.

[John Iacoletti]

The FBI obtained one MacBook and an external hard drive, presumably the back up data recovery by the shop. Was there nothing noteworthy on the other two laptops? Did he look at all of them or just lucked out on this one. Pretty good for someone who is "legally blind".

And does the "laptop" that contained the data he "copied to the external hard drive" even exist?  Or is that another thing we just have to take Giuliani's word for?

[John Iacoletti]

Yes, the number of deaths are in line with the projections made by the CDC earlier this year with mitigation efforts (while Hiden was still holding large rallies).  Without such efforts they predicted as many as two million deaths.  So millions of lives have been saved according to the CDC.

What "mitigations" has Trump ever enacted, enforced, or even suggested?

[John Iacoletti]

If it is authentic, the American public deserves to know that Dirty Joe and his crackhead son are on the payroll of China and many other foreign countries before electing him President.

Typical BS "Richard" claim.  Let's say the leaked "emails" are 100% authentic.  What we have is a screen shot of an email that says,

"thank you for inviting me to DC and giving an opportunity to meet your father and spent some time together".

And this is supposed to prove that Joe Biden was on the payroll of China?



And your evidence that "big guy" refers to Joe Biden would be . . . what, exactly?

You got nothing.