If Oswald Was The Assassin, Did He Plan His Escape From The TSBD Very Well?

[John Iacoletti]

Oswald was a reasonably intelligent person.  He may have had mental issues but he was not delusional.  As a result, he understood that the act of assassinating the President of the United States in broad daylight in the presence of law enforcement entailed his own death or arrest.  There was no escaping from that act.  That doesn't mean, as some CTers stupidly suggest, that Oswald would have just sat down and waited to be arrested because he had no realistic hope of getting away.  He did what most criminals do.  He kept moving and played out his hand for as long as he could.  He had nothing to lose by doing that.  Perhaps he entertained some fantasy of reaching Cuba via Mexico and seeking asylum from Castro but the fact that Oswald left most of his money with Marina that morning lends itself to the conclusion that he expected to be arrested or killed. 

Cool story, bro.

[John Mytton]

Dear John,

Thanks for the fantastic analysis of that particular point. trying to visualise it doesn't reveal how much tracking is needed for the Houston shot but the graphics make it clear. I stand corrected on which was the most difficult shot. It'd be good to hear more from you as a lot of the posts on this thread are like the one that precedes yours.
There are still many points about Oswald's behaviour that day which seem confusing - why he ran, why he was carrying ID that tied him to the weapon etc. - and it would be refreshing to hear some sensible views on this and much more.

Hi Dan, thanks for the support, there is no doubt that the shot down Elm was the best shot. As for your other questions all we can do is speculate but his actions post assassination were all a classic indication of flight from the scene of a crime.



JohnM

[John Iacoletti]

Hi Dan, thanks for the support, there is no doubt that the shot down Elm was the best shot. As for your other questions all we can do is speculate but his actions post assassination were all a classic indication of flight from the scene of a crime.

What this is, is a classic indication of confirmation bias.

[John Mytton]

What this is, is a classic indication of confirmation bias.

Sure "Iacoletti", whatever it takes, eh?

JohnM

[Charles Collins]

I don't know where you get your guesses from but the shot at an approaching Limo is in fact much harder.

1. As the Limo turns into Houston the Limo is in the sight for a fraction of a second and recentering after a miss is a pain in the ass.
2. As the Limo travels further down Houston and gets closer to the TSBD, the time for a shot gets progressively less.
3. When the Limo is passing directly by the TSBD, the increased angular velocity is at it's maximum so you can completely forget about the "closest" shot.
4. Which leaves us with the shot as the Limo travels down Elm being the easiest simply because of the incline and the direction of the Limo means that at this angle the Limo stays in the sights the longest and if Oswald misses reacquiring the target is much easier. It's all just simple physics.



JohnM

Well done graphics as usual John! LHO had time to visualize the different possibilities in his mind while planning and waiting for the motorcade. And his reported dry fire practice on the screened in porch in New Orleans could have given him an idea about these things beforehand. The choice of the S.E. corner window gave him better concealment for shots down Elm Street. And the surprise element is a key for successful ambush. Shots from behind were a good choice for several reasons.

[Bill Chapman]

Well done graphics as usual John! LHO had time to visualize the different possibilities in his mind while planning and waiting for the motorcade. And his reported dry fire practice on the screened in porch in New Orleans could have given him an idea about these things beforehand. The choice of the S.E. corner window gave him better concealment for shots down Elm Street. And the surprise element is a key for successful ambush. Shots from behind were a good choice for several reasons.

Trying to part Kennedy's hair prematurely (making an attempt with the limo still on Houston) would be tantamount to saying 'Here I am. Come and get me'

[Richard Smith]

When the "reasonably intelligent" LHO was confronted by police seconds after the shooting and found to be calmly sipping a coke on the second floor he would have recognised, as "most criminals" would, what a godsend that was, the next best thing to a solid alibi. "Most criminals" would instantly realise the way to play it is to hang around and tell everyone he'd been seen on the second floor seconds after the shooting by his boss and the police. Instead he chooses to slip out without telling anyone knowing it would make him the prime suspect. If LHO was the sole assassin he deliberately spurned his golden opportunity of an 'alibi' and chose to incriminate himself. He also chose to incriminate himself by carrying in his wallet false ID that linked him to the murder weapon, something "most criminals" and "reasonably intelligent" would definitely not do. Think about that. He knew he'd have to leave the weapon behind so he carried false ID on him linking him to the weapon.
Lastly, if LHO was the lone sniper he would've took the shot with the limo coming towards him down Houston Street. Put yourself in his position, a clear head shot as the target moves slowly towards you or a shot through the trees as he moves away? If you are "reasonably intelligent" the answer is unavoidable.

Oswald knew he was already a person of interest to the FBI even prior to the assassination.  He knew his rifle would be discovered on the 6th floor and likely traced to him.  For all he knew there were perhaps witnesses and other evidence that would soon link him to assassination.  He wasn't going to hang around the TSBD and tell everyone he had a "golden alibi."  That's maybe what an innocent person would have done but Oswald had no such luxury.  Instead he had only one option.  To make like Michael Jackson and beat it while he could. Using his flight to suggest innocence instead of guilt is quite a bizarre argument.

The false ID argument is again basically that the evidence is so strong that we can only conclude that Oswald is innocent!  LOL.  Criminals often do stupid things that get them arrested.  Oswald either forgot that he ordered the rifle under an alias, didn't think it could be traced back to him because he had no idea what records Klein's retained from the transaction or just didn't care because he knew getting arrested or killed was part of the equation in deciding to assassinate the president.  His goose was cooked the moment he pulled the trigger.  What was he going to do?  Assassinate JFK on Friday and just go back to his regular life the next week because he got rid of the fake ID?  Maybe he thought a fake ID would be useful on the lamb.  Regardless, citing the presence of highly incriminating evidence that links Oswald to the crime as the potential basis to exonerate him is a head scratcher.