Majority Opinion of 59 Witnesses on the Speed of the LimousineThis is primarily addresses the theory of Andrew Mason that the majority opinion of a large number of witnesses is a reliable guide to what really happened. That a large number of opinions will inevitably statistically converge on the correct answer.
First of all, to evaluate the witnesses. I want to concentrate on the speed of the limousine issue. Speed of the limousine is the only issue we can evaluate the witnesses.
We cannot grade the witnesses on the number of shots, because the Zapruder film does not show us the number of shots.
We cannot grade the witnesses on the spacing of the shots, because the Zapruder film does not show us the spacing of shots.
We cannot grade the witnesses on the direction of the shots, because the Zapruder film does not show us the direction of the shots.
The only thing we have to grade them on is the speed of the limousine. That is something we can definitely judge from the Zapruder film.
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Below is a chart showing the impressions of the witnesses. I did not put names on the charts but used numbers, to save time. I use the same numbers that are used in the list.
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almost
stopped stopped slowed other
1 x
2 x
3 x
4 x
5 x
6 x
7 x
8 x
9 x
10 x
11 x
12 x
13 x
14 x
15 x
16 x
17 x
18 x
19 x
20 x
21 x
22 x
23 x
24 x
25 x
26 x
27 x
28 x
29 x
30 x
31 x
32 x
33 x
34 x
35 x
36 x
37 x
38 x
39 x
40 x
41 x
42 x
43 x
44 x
45 x
46 x
47 x
48 x
49 x
50 x
51 x
52 x
53 x
54 x
55 x
56 x
57 x
58 x
59 x
totals:
26 13 7 13
Of the 59 witnesses:
26 - Said the limousine or the motorcade stopped.
Two used the word "paused" which I consider
to mean stop.
13 - Said the limousine or motorcade almost stopped.
Some said it "stopped" or "almost stopped", which
I count as "almost stopped".
7 - Said the limousine slowed, an accurate statement.
13 - Did not give an opinion. Some said the
motorcade moved very slowly during the
shooting, but did not say whether it had
slowed down. Perhaps they meant the
motorcade always went slowly.
We have 59 witnesses statements. 13 don't say whether the limousine slowed or not.
Of the remaining 46 statements, 26 say the limousine stopped, 13 almost stopped and 7 said slowed.
So, I have the following questions for Andrew Mason, marked in boldface:
Using statistical methods, we would have to conclude the that the limousine stopped. Do you agree with this?Do you see any reason, from the witness statements alone, to say the opinions of the 13 who said the limousine almost stopped should outweigh the 26 who said it did stop?If we did not have the Zapruder and the other films, would not your method of relying on witness statistics have mislead us into believing that the limousine had stopped?If your method could lead us into error on the question of whether the limousine stopped or not, could it not also lead us into error on the spacing of the shots?**************************************************
In conclusion:
We only tested the witnesses on one issue, the speed of the limousine. It was the only issue we could test them on, cause it was the only thing that we can observe in the Zapruder film.
The answers came in three groups, "Stopped", "Almost Stopped" and "Slowed". There was a clear majority that said "Stopped".
The witnesses had a clear advantage. We only had one question to ask of them. They had a one in three chance of being right. It is a multiple choice test with just one question and only three possible answers. As simple a test as possible.The majority might have giving us the right answer by sheer luck, thereby giving us the false impression that the majority opinion of a large number of witnesses is reliable. That the majority opinion will reliably statistically converge on the correct answer.
The witnesses failed. Clearly the witnesses statements did not statistically converge on "Slowed". They did not even statistically converge on "Almost Stopped". They converged on "Stopped".**********
This post also appears in another thread, but I started a new thread because it took a significant amount of work to go through the 59 statements. It is a separate subject than the one on the spacing of the shots, although it does have a good deal of bearing on that question.
